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Theory of Probability

Basic concepts: 1) An experiment When we conduct a trial to obtain some statistical information, it is called an experiment. e.g. Tossing of a fair coin is an experiment and it has two possible outcomes: Head (H) or Tail (T) 2) Events: The possible outcomes of a trial/experiments are called events. e.g. If a fair coin is tossed, the outcomes head or tail are called events.

TYPES OF EVENTS
1. EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS : The total number of possible outcomes of a trial/experiment are called exhaustive events. e.g. In case of tossing a dice, the set of possible outcomes are 6. 2. EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS : The events are said to be equallylikely if the chance of happening of each event is equal or same. e.g. If a coin is tossed, the events H and T are equally likely events. 3. MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS : Two events are said to be mutually exclusive when they cannot happen simultaneously in a single trial. e.g. In tossing a coin, the events head or tail are mutually exclusive because they cannot happen simultaneously in a single trial.

TYPES OF EVENTS
6. COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS : If A and B are two events. A is called the complementary event of B and B is called complementary event of A. 7. SIMPLE EVENT : one trial and one occurrence. Compound event : two trials and two occurrence. 8. DEPENDENT EVENT : Like a card drawn from a pack of 52 cards will affect the probability of second card drawn. 9.INDEPENDENT EVENT : Like two coins tossed simultaneously will not affect the probabilities of events.

IMPORTANCE OF PROBABILITY
Making economic decision in situations of risk and uncertainty by sales managers, production managers, etc. In theory of games which is further used in managerial decisions. Various sampling tests like Z- test, t- test and F- test are based on the theory of probability. It is the backbone of insurance companies as life tables are based on the theory of probability.

PROBABILITY SCALE
Acc to Laplace Probability is the ratio of the favorable cases to the total number of equally likely cases. Symbolically, Probability of occurrence of an event is : P(A) = p = Number of favorable cases to E = m Total no. of equally likely cases n Similarly, probability of non-occurrence of event E is : P (E) = 1 P (E)

Q1. Find the probability of getting a head in a tossing of a coin.


Solution 1 : When a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes Head or Tail So, Total no. of equally likely cases = n =2 No. of cases favorable to H = m = 1 Therefore, P (Head) = m/n = 1/2

Q2. A bag contains 5 black and 10 white balls. What is the probability of drawing (i) a black ball, (ii) a white ball?

Solution 2: Total no of balls (n)= 15 (i) P(black ball) = No. of black balls / Total no. of balls = 5/15 = 1/3 (ii) P (white ball) = No. of white balls/ Total no. of balls = 10/15 = 2/3

Q3. In a lottery, there are 10 prizes and 90 blanks. If a person holds one ticket, what are the chances of (i) Getting a prize (ii) Not getting a prize Solution: Total no. of tickets = 90 + 10 = 100 (i) No. of prizes i.e. no. of favorable cases= 10 P (getting a prize) = 10/100 = 0.1 (ii) No of blanks i.e. no. of unfavorable cases =90 P (not getting a prize) = 90/100 = 0.9

Q4. A single letter is selected from the word PROBABILITY. What is the probability that it is a vowel? Q5. Find the probability of drawing an ace from a set of 52 cards. Q6. Two dice are tossed. Find the probability that the sum of dots on the faces that turn up is (i) 8 (ii) 7 (iii) 11.

Use of combinations in theory of probability


When no of cases favorable is not easily determined: n Cr = n! (n-r)! r! Q7. From a pack of 52 cards, two cards are drawn at random. Find the probability that one is a king and the other is queen.

Solution 7: 52 Two cards can be drawn from 52 in C2 ways. There are 4 kings and 4 queens in a pack of cards. A king can be drawn in 4C1 ways. A queen can be drawn in 4C1 ways. Therefore , P = 4C1 . 4C1 = (4!/3!.1!) . (4!/3!.1!) 52 C2 52!/50!.2! = 4x4x2/52x51 = 8/663

Additive rule of probability for not mutually exclusive events


If A and B are two mutually exhaustive events, then the probability of occurrence of either A or B is the sum of the individual probabilities of A and B. P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) P (A or B or C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C)

Q8. A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability of getting either a king or queen ? Solution 8 : There are 4 kings and 4 queens in a pack of 52 cards. P (King) = 4/52 P (Queen) = 4/52 P (King or Queen) = 4/52 + 4/52 = 8/52 = 2/13

Q9. A perfect die is tossed. What is the probability of throwing 3 or 5? Solution9 : There are 6 possible outcomes. P (3) = 1/6 P (5) = 1/6 P (3 or 5) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/3

Q10. Three horses A,B and C are in a race. A is twice as likely to win as B and B is twice as likely to win as C. What are the respective probabilities of winning?
Solution 10 : Here, P(B) = 2 P(C), P(A) = 2 P(B) P (A+B+C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1 Or 2 P(B) + P(B) + 1/2P(B) = 1

Therefore, P(B) = 2/7


Hence, P(A) = 4/7 and P(C) = 1/7

Additive rule of probability for mutually exclusive events


P (A or B or both) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB) P (Either A or B or C) = P (A) + P (B) + P(C) P(AB) P(AC) P(BC) + P (ABC)

Q11. A card is drawn out of a pack of cards. What is the probability that (i) it is either a king or queen, (ii) it is either a king or a black card? Solution: (i) P (King) = 4/52 P (Queen) = 4/52 Since, both are mutually exclusive, the probability that the card is either a king or queen is P (King or Queen) = P (King) + P (Queen) = 4/52 + 4/52 = 2/13

(ii)

P (King) = 4/52 P (Black card) = 26/52 Since, black kings are common to both, the events are not mutually exclusive. Therefore , P (Black Kings) = 2/52 P (a King or a black) = P (a king) + P (Black card) P (a black king) = 4/52 + 26/52 2/52 =28/52

Multiplicative rule of Probability for independent events


P(AB) = P(A) x P(B) P (ABC) = P(A) x P(B) x P(C)

Q12. A coin is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of getting all the three heads? Solution 12: Probability of head in first toss = Probability of head in second toss = Probability of head in third toss = Since the events are independent, P(ABC) = x x = 1/8

Conditional Probability
If A and B are two independent events, then the conditional probability of B given A is defined and given by: P (B/A) = P (AB)/ P(A) provided P(A)>0 Similarly, the conditional probability of A given B is defined and given by: P (A/B) = P (AB)/ P(B) provided P(B)>0

Multiplicative events

rule

for

dependent

P(AB) = P(A). P(B/A) or P (AB) = P(B). P(A/B) Where, P (B/A) = conditional probability of B given A P (A/B) = conditional probability of a given B Q13. A bag contains 10 white and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random one after the other without replacement. Find the probability that both balls drawn are black.

Solution 13. The probability of drawing a black ball in the first attempt is : P (A) = 5/(10+5) = 5/15 The probability of drawing the second black ball given that the first drawn is black and not replaced is: P (B/A) = 4/ (10+4) = 4/14 Since the events are dependent, so the probability that both the balls are black is : P (AB) = P(A). P(B/A) = 5/15 x 4/14 = 2/21

Mathematical Expectation
If a person is to receive a particular amount of money on the happening of an event, then the multiplication of probability of that event (P) with the amount to be received with happening of the event is known as mathematical expectation. i.e. Mathematical Expectation = Probability of happening of the event x Money to be received on the happening of the event.

Q14. A bag contains 3 red and 4 green balls. Four persons A, B, C and D in the order named draws on ball and does not replace it. The first to draw a green ball receives Rs 56. Determine their expectations.

Theoretical Distribution (also called Probability Distribution)


TYPES OF THEORETICAL DISTRIBUTION

1. Discrete Theoretical Distribution

2. Continuous Theoretical Distribution

Binomial Distribution

Poisson Distribution

Normal Distribution

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
This distribution was discovered by a Swiss Mathematician James Bernouli. It is used in such situations where an experiment results in two possibilities- success (p) or failure (q).
P (X=x) = Cx qn-x . px
Where, p = probability of success, q = probability of failure = 1-p n = number of trials P (X=x) = Probability of successes in n trials.
n

In Binomial Distribution,
Mean = (x) = np Variance = 2 = npq S.D = = npq Moment Coefficient of skewness = 1 = (q-p)/ npq Moment Coefficient of kurtosis = 2 = 3 + (1-6pq)/npq

Q1. A fair coin is tossed thrice. Find the probability of getting: 1) Exactly 2 Heads 2) At least 2 Heads 3) At the most two Heads Solution: p = probability of getting one head when a coin is tossed = , q = the probability of tail = and n =3 3 1. P(2H) = C2 (1/2)3-2 . (1/2)2 = 3/8 2. P(at least 2 Heads) = P (2H) + P (3H) 3 = C2 (1/2)3-2 . (1/2)2 + C2 (1/2)3-2 . (1/2)2 = 1/2 3. P(at most 2 Heads) = P (0H) + P (1H) + P (2H) = 1 P (3H) = 7/8

Q2. The mean of a binomial distribution is 20 and standard deviation is 4. Find n, p and q. Solution: In a B.D; Mean = np ; S.D = npq Therefore, Mean = np =20 And S.D = npq = 4 ; npq = 16 npq/np = 16/20 ; q = 4/5 n= 100

Q3. Obtain the mean and S.D of a binomial distribution for which P (X=3) = 16 P (X=7) and n = 10. Q4. Find the probability of 5 successes in a binomial distribution whose mean and variance are respectively 6 and 2.

Poisson Distribution
This is a discrete probability distribution developed by a French Mathematician Dr. Simon Denis Poisson in 1837. The Poisson distribution is used in those situations where the probability of happening an event is very small i.e. the event rarely occurs. e.g. probability of occurring an accident, probability of occurring an earthquake.

Binomial Distribution tends towards Poisson Distribution under following conditions:


1. 2. 3. 4. n, the number of trials is infinitely large i.e. n . p, the probability of success is very small i.e. p 0. q, the probability of failure is very large i.e. q L. The average number of successes (np) is equal to a positive finite quantity (m) i.e. np = m P (X=x) = (e-m . mx)/x!

Where, P (X=x) = probability of obtaining x number of success. m = np = parameter of distribution e = 2.7183

In Poisson Distribution,
Mean = (x) = m = np Variance = 2 = m S.D = = m Moment Coefficient of skewness = 1 = 1/ m Moment Coefficient of kurtosis = 2 = 3 + 1/m

NOTE : Mean = Variance

Importance of Poisson Distribution


1. It is used in statistical quality control to count the number of defects. 2. In Biology to count the number of bacteria. 3. In insurance companies to count the number of casualties. 4. To count the number of typing error in a typed material. 5. To count the number of incoming telephone calls in a town. 6. To count the number of suicides committed by lovers in a year.

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
It is a continuous probability distribution developed by English Mathematician Abraham De Moivre in 1733. Normal Distribution tends towards Poisson Distribution under following conditions: 1. n, the number of trials is infinitely large, i.e. n 2. Neither p nor q is very small.

Normal Distribution is given by the following probability function:


P (X=x) =
Where,
2 -1/2[(xx ) / ] 1/2e

x = Mean, = Standard Deviation, e = 2.7183 and


= 3.14

Graph of normal distribution