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A Sustainable Energy Scenario through 2020 based on PV & Wind, Bio-Fuel

,
Nuclear

EWG Business Network Hong Kong, 4th Sept. 2007

By Lim Man Onn
CEO, Partnership for Equitable Growth

Contents

Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

PV & Wind Power

Bio-Fuel

Nuclear Energy

Conclusion

 PV & Wind Power
01_ PV (Photovoltaic) 02_ Wind Power 03_ Prospect and Segment

 Bio-Fuel  Nuclear Energy  Conclusion

3

PV (Photovoltaic)

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Manufacture Process

Poly-Crystalline Silicon

Ingot

Wafer

Cell

Modul e

Design & Installation

4

PV (Photovoltaic)

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Cumulative installed PV Power (in IEA’s reporting
countries)
3,700
9% 38 .3

2,607

al gr o

w th An nu

of

1,828 1,334

989 729
136 164 199 245 314 396 520

110

※ Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006

5

PV (Photovoltaic)

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Total installed PV Power by 2005 (in IEA’s reporting countries)

※ Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006

6

PV (Photovoltaic)

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 PV yearly module production by regions
1400 1200 1000 Production (MWp) 800 600
A
Country USA Japan Europe China Rest Total 2003 109.0 365.4 202.3 10.3 74.9 761.9 2004 Growth AmountGrowth Rate 141.5 32.5 29.8% 594.1 228.7 62.6% 344.1 141.8 70.1% 38.0 27.7 268.9% 138.1 75.9 101.3% 1,256.0 494.1 64.9%

1,532
(’05)

1,256

th ow r l g 2% ua 7. nn 3

of

761.9 559.6

400 200 0 93
wth of 13% Annual gro

390.5 125.8 153.2 98 99 Year 202.2 287.7

60.1 94

69.4 95

77.7 96
Japan

88.7 97

00
China

01

02
Rest

03
Total

04

USA

Europe

※ Source : PHOTON Internatial, The Photonvoltail Magazine, 2005.3

Growth 2005/2004 of 22%
7

PV (Photovoltaic)

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 PV Production by company
56% of PV module production from Japanese companies
Share of PV module production by company in 2005 (%)

※ Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006

8

PV (Photovoltaic)

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Indicative installed PV system price in 2005
Country Australia Austria Canada Switzerland Germany Denmark France UK Israel Italy Japan Korea Mexico Netherlands Norway Sweden USA Off-Grid (per W) < 1 kW 16.8 18.5 12.3 12.0~16.0 11.7~15.0 18.5~29.6 10.0~17.3 10.0 14.8~18.5 21.5 12.4~16.5 15.5~23.3 13.4 12.0~25.0 > 1 kW 14.5 12.3~24.7 9.6~12.0 25.0~33.3 14.8~25.9 10.0~17.3 >11.0 14.8~17.3 19.5 12.0~20.0 On-Grid (per W) <10 kW 7.6~10.7 6.2~7.4 8.3~10.3 6.8~8.8 7.4 5.5~13.3 8.1 8.5~27.6 7.4~9.9 6.0 9.6 6.8~7.4 12.4~17.1 12.4~17.1 7.0~10.0

[UNIT : USD]

> 10 kW 7.6 6.2~6.8 10.4 5.8~7.2 8.3~16.7 5.6 6.2~19.1 6.8~8.6 6.6 9.6 6.9 5.9 6.7 6.5~9.0

※ Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006

9

PV (Photovoltaic)

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Summary
◎ Cost accelerates
• The tremendous growth of PV business • Lack of raw material of poly silicon that is the same as for producing semiconductor grade silicon

◎ High growth expectation
• The average annual growth rate for the last 5 years : 39.72% • Japan and Europe are driving PV system installation continuously • Most of the countries are interested in renewable energy to replace oil consumption and solve global warming

◆ Scenario Ⅰ: Aggressive growth : 20% p.a. ◆ Scenario Ⅱ : Moderate growth : 15% p.a.

10

Wind Power

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Annual Generation from Wind (in IEA’s reporting countries)
31 f % 10 .

The IEA 20 developed countries had 87% of the world installed wind power (2005)

An

l ua n

o gr

w

th

o

※ Source : IEA Wind Annual Report in 2005

11

Wind Power

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 National statistics in 2005
IEA Country Australia Austria Canada Denmark Finland Germany Greece Ireland Italy Japan Korea Mexico Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland UK USA Totals Total installed Annual new Total No. of wind capacity wind capacity Turbines (MW) 708.00 819.00 683.00 3,128.00 82.00 18,428.00 605.40 492.7 1,717.00 1,077.70 100.00 2.20 1,213.00 270.00 1,060.00 10,028.00 452.00 11.59 1,337.16 9,149.00 51,363.75 (MW) 328.00 212.00 239.00 4.00 0.00 1,808.00 121.10 204.60 452.00 150.80 70.00 0.00 140.00 110.00 529.00 1,630.00 48.00 2.92 446.80 2,431.00 8,927.22 (turbines) 447 NDA 681 5,293 94 17,592 926 321 2,258 1,048 41 8 1,733 129 743 NDA 759 34 1,445 7,200 40,752 Average new turbine capacity (kW) 1,750 NDA 1,700 1,200 1,030 1,723 1,188 1,000 1,196 1,300 1,700 0 1,358 2,300 2,100 1,320 1,000 584 1,730 1,500 1,352 Wind generated electricity (GWh) 2,171.0 NDA 1,800.0 6,614.0 170.0 26,500.0 1,270.0 655.0 2,140.0 1,438.7 146 4.2 2,000.0 504.0 1,773.0 20,236.0 864 8.4 2,394.0 28,051.0 98,739.3 National electricity demand (TWh) 190.00 NDA 538.00 35.72 84.90 611.00 51.00 26.01 329.00 865.40 359.31 183.90 118.00 126.00 47.97 259.95 146 61.30 421.90 3,838.60 8,293.96 % of national electricity demand from wind (%) 1.143 NDA 0.34 18.50 0.20 4.34 2.49 2.52 0.65 0.17 0.04 0.002 1.695 0.40 3.70 7.79 0.59 0.014 0.48 0.73 1.19

12

Wind Power

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Increasing average size of new turbine installed (IEA wind member
countries)

※ Source : IEA Wind Annual Report in 2005

13

Wind Power

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

Many European countries have established high targets for wind power generation
Portugal Finland Denmark Germany Spain UK Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Sweden Switzerland Greece 39% of electricity consumption by 2012. 3,750MW of wind power 31% of electricity consumption by 2010. 8.4TWh/year. 500 MW approx. 20% of electricity consumption (end of 2003) 25% CO2 emissions reduction by 2005 (from 1990 levels) 12% of primary energy demand by 2010. 13,000MW installed wind power by 2011 10% electricity supplied by 2010, subject to cost to consumer being acceptable 3.2% of electricity generated by 2010. capacity of 500MW (in 2005) 2,500MW (eq. Avoided 3.4 m tons CO2 emissions based on wind power) 5% of energy by 2010 (9% of electricity) rising to 10% of energy by 2020. 1,500MW of wind power by 2010 7TWh per year of electricity. 3TWh per year from wind energy (approx. 1,000MW) by 2010 10TWh per year by 2015 50~100GWh by 2010 from wind power 1,500 MW wind power by 2010

14

Wind Power

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Summary
◎ The competitive factors
• Electricity generation from wind is almost 10 times as much as PV power • Wind power has economic feasibility itself without subsidy from government • Plenty of national incentive programs

◎ Growth expectation
• The average annual growth rate for the last 5 years : 31.10% • Turbine size is getting bigger, now 5MW turbine now commercial • Wind power is the most competitive among renewable energy

◆ Scenario Ⅰ: Aggressive growth : 20% p.a. ◆ Scenario Ⅱ : Moderate growth : 15% p.a.
15

Prospect and Segment

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Convert electricity from PV & Wind to TOE (Ton of Oil Equivalent)
◎ PV generated electricity in 2005
- Cumulative installed PV power : 3,895 MW
※ Assumption : IEA countries of 3,700 MW had 95% of the world installed PV power

- Average Efficiency : 17% - Average generating time a day : 3.5 hours ☞ Generated Electricity : 846 GWh

◎ Wind power generated electricity in 2005
- Generated electricity : 113,493 GWh
※ Assumption : applied the 87% of IEA countries installed in worldwide to the same % of the generated electricity in 2005

PV generated Power : 188,000 TOE Wind generated Power : 25,220,666 TOE
* One TOE : 12 MWh * Average efficiency : 37.5%

16

Prospect and Segment

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Scenario Ⅰ: aggressive growth case
(Million Toe) PV Wind Power Total World Electricity World Primary Energy * Assumption
- PV & Wind growth rate : 20% - World electricity growth rate : 3.0%, Production in 2005 : 4,306.3 m TOE (source : BP statistical review) - World Primary Energy growth rate : 2.5%(2006~2010), 2.0%(2011~2020), Production in 2006 : 10,878.5 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)

2006 0.23 30.49 30.72 Consumption Ratio Consumption Ratio 4,306.30 0.71% 10,878.50 0.28%

2010 0.47 63.22 63.69 4,846.78 1.31% 12,007.83 0.53%

2015 1.16 157.32 158.49 5,618.74 2. 82% 13,257.61 1.20%

2020 2.90 391.47 394.37 6,513.67 6.05% 14,637.48 2.69%

17

Prospect and Segment

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Scenario Ⅰ: aggressive growth case
Aggressive Penentration of PV & Wind Power 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2006 2010 year Electricity Ratio Primary Energy Ratio 2015 2020 0.71% 0.28% 1.31% 0.53% 2.82% 2.69% 6.05%

1.20%

18

Prospect and Segment

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Scenario Ⅱ : moderate growth case
Million Toe PV Wind Power Total World Electricity World Primary Energy * Assumption
- PV & Wind growth rate : 15% - World electricity growth rate : 3.0%, Production in 2005 : 4,306.3 m TOE (source : BP statistical review) - World Primary Energy growth rate : 2.5%(2006~2010), 2.0%(2011~2020), Production in 2006 : 10,878.5 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)

2006 0.23 29.22 29.44 Consumption Ratio Consumption Ratio 4,306.30 0.68% 10,878.50 0.27%

2010 0.38 51.11 51.48 4,846.78 1.06% 12,007.83 0.43%

2015 0.76 102.79 103.55 5,618.74 1.84% 13,257.61 0.78%

2020 1.53 206.75 208.28 6,513.67 3.20% 14,637.48 1.42%

19

Prospect and Segment

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Scenario Ⅱ : moderate growth case
Moderate Penentration of PV & Wind Power 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 2006 2010 year Electricity Ratio Primary Energy Ratio 2015 2020 0.68% 0.27% 1.06% 0.78% 0.43% 1.84% 1.42% 3.20%

20

 PV & Wind Power

 Bio-Fuel
01_ Bio-Diesel 02_ Bio-Ethanol 03_ Activities around the world 04_ Prospect and Segment

 Nuclear Energy  Conclusion

21

Bio-Diesel

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Feed Stocks
• Jatropha oil : India • Palm oil : Indonesia, Malaysia (produce 80% of the total palm oil) • Soybean oil : The United States of America • Rapeseed and Sunflower oil : Europe

Jatropha

Palm Fruit

Key Raw Material
22

Bio-Diesel

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Feed Stock Production per Hectare & Cost of Bio-diesel Production
Bio-diesel is clean fuel with high cetane index of 46~70
Feed Stock Soya Oil Rapeseed Oil Jatropha Oil Palm Oil Country USA Europe India Malaysia Yield/ha
(kg)

Rate per barrel
(US$)

375 1,000 3,000 5,000

73 78 43 46

※ Source : Center for Jatropha Promotion & Biodiesel in India (http://www.jatrophaworld.org)

23

Bio-Diesel

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Full Option Model

24

Bio-Diesel

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Jatropha : Uses
Main purpose cultivating Jatropha is to produce bio-diesel

Whole plant

Roots

Leaves

Latex

Seeds

Twig

- Prevent water erosion and for conservation - useful in controlling sand drift - possess Allelopathic properties

- Source of oil suitable as fuel for diesel engine - Used as medicine - Used as - Used as ethnomedicine ethnomedicine - Used as ethnomedicine - Used for making ink - Useful as illumitant, ubricant, in soap and candle making - Used as medicine - Used as Dataun (Herbal tooth brush) - Young one cooked and eaten

25

Bio-Diesel

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Jatropha : Crop Yield
It is difficult to estimate unequivocally the yield of a plant growing in different climatic and soil conditions
★ Yield : 2.0 ~ 12.5 tons/ha/year Without Irrigation
Yr_1 Yr_2 Yr_3 Yr_4 Yr_5

With Irrigation : ton per Hectare] [Unit
Normal 0.25 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.00 High 0.40 1.50 1.75 2.25 2.75 Yr_1 Yr_2 Yr_3 Yr_4 Yr_5 Low 0.75 1.00 4.25 5.25 5.25 Normal 1.25 1.50 5.00 6.25 8.00 High 2.50 3.00 5.00 8.00 12.50

Low 0.10 0.50 0.75 0.90 1.10

※ Source : Center for Jatropha Promotion & Biodiesel in India (http://www.jatrophaworld.org)

26

Bio-Diesel

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Jatropha : Bio-Diesel Perspective
There is no statistics of Jatropha for biodiesel but India has started cultivating Jatropha in huge areas and its target is to replace 5% of diesel consumption.
[Unit : ton]

Country India Cambodia Vietnam Indonesia Total

2010 800,000 200,000 400,000 200,000 1,600,000

2012 2,000,000 600,000 1,000,000 600,000 4,200,000

2015 4,000,000 1,200,000 2,000,000 1,200,000 8,400,000

2020 8,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 15,000,000

※ Conservative conversion : two tones of biodiesel = one hectare

27

Bio-Diesel

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Palm Oil : Production Forecast
Palm Oil represents 30% of the world vegetable oil. Malaysia and Indonesia produce over 80% of the world palm oil production.
Forecast of world Palm Oil Production
2006 World Palm Oil (ton) Area
(ha)

2010 44,730,630 9,940,140

2015 57,088,878 12,686,417

2020 72,861,483 16,191,441

36,800,000(#) 8,177,778

# : Indonesia produced 17 million ton of palm oil in 2006 and represents 43% of world production * Assumption
- Annual growth rate : 5% - Average 4.5 tones of palm oil yield per hectare (ranges from 4~6 tonnes per hectare) * Source : Korean Energy Economics Institute

28

Bio-Diesel

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Palm Oil : Bio-Diesel Growth Perspective
2006 Aggressive Moderate
20% target 10% target
16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Aggressive Moderate

2010 8,946,126 4,473,063

2015 11,417,776 5,708,888

2020 14,572,297 7,286,148

360,000 360,000

* Assumption

2006

2010

2015

2020

- Aggressive growth : 1% conversion(2006), 20%(2010~2020) for palm oil into biodiesel - Moderate growth : 1% conversion(2006), 10%(2010~2020) for palm oil into biodiesel

29

Bio-Diesel

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Feedstocks for Biodiesel
Global production was 3.9 bn litres (3.272 m TOE) in 2005
Vegetable oil & Biodiesel feedstock Ratio and Production(2005)
Feedstock Palm Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Peanut Cotton seed Coconut Olive Other Total 100% Vegetable Oil 33% 31% 14% 8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 33,000 100% 1% 100% Bio-Diesel Volume (TOE) 33,000 65,000 2,716,000 425,000 Share 1% 2% 83% 13%

※ Source : 1) IEA Energy Technology Essentials (January, 2007), 2) KIER

30

Bio-Diesel

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Bio-Diesel trends by region
Million litres capacity

※ Source : F.O. Lichts

31

Bio-Diesel

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Prospect and Segment : Aggressive growth case
2006 Jatropha Palm Oil Rapeseed Sunflower seed Soybean Total * Assumption
-Jatropha : based on yield and conversion ratio from 2010 onwards - Palm Oil : 1% of palm oil converts to biodiesel in 2006, 20% from 2010 - Other feedstock : 5% of annual growth rate

[Unit : ton]

2010 1,600,000 8,946,126 3,466,074 542,879 83,520 14,638,599

2015 8,400,000 11,417,776 4,423,687 692,867 106,595 25,040,924

2020 15,000,000 14,572,297 5,645,870 884,293 136,045 36,238,505

360,000 2,851,548 446,628 68,712 3,734,888

32

Bio-Diesel

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Prospect and Segment : Moderate growth case
2006 Jatropha Palm Oil Rapeseed Sunflower seed Soybean Total * Assumption
-Jatropha : based on yield and conversion ratio from 2010 onwards - Palm Oil : 1% of palm oil converts to biodiesel in 2006, 10% from 2010 - Other feedstock : 5% of annual growth rate

[Unit : ton]

2010 1,600,000 4,473,063 3,466,074 542,879 83,520 10,165,536

2015 8,400,000 5,708,888 4,423,687 692,867 106,595 19,332,036

2020 15,000,000 7,286,148 5,645,870 884,293 136,045 28,952,356

360,000 2,851,548 446,628 68,712 3,734,888

33

Bio-Ethanol

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Feedstock specifications
Feedstock production, costs, and emission data for bioethanol and bio-diesel production
Cereals, maize Fossil energy input (%) Co-products Installed capacity
(bn l/year)

Sugar beets N/A N/A 0.6 50-60 CO 2,000-4,000

Sugar cane 10-12 Heat & Power 18 Brazil 0.3-0.5 90 CO 3,000-6,000

Lignocelluolsic
(a)

60-80 19.5 US, 5.0 China 0.6-0.8 15-25 CO 1,500-3,000

Heat & Power

Production cost ($/lge) CO2 reduction (% c) Pollutant abatement Land use (lge/ha)

1.0

(b)

70 CO, NOx N/A

(a) Energy input may be higher than final ethanol energy, but most such energy comes from the biomass itself. (b) Twice gasoline cost at $60/bbl. (c) Compared with gasoline (2.8 kg CO2/l) or conventional diesel.

※ Source : IEA Energy Technology Essentials (January, 2007)

34

Bio-Ethanol

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Key factors
◎ Can be blended to at least 10% in vehicles in OECD countries ; are blended up to 25% in Brazil ◎ Costs for creating “fuel-flexible” vehicles (can run on any mixture of ethanol and gasoline) are on the order of €100200 per vehicle ; many such vehicles in U.S. ◎ Low-level ethanol blends reduce emissions of most pollutants, but can increase others (e.g. hydrocarbons, aldehydes). Positive on net basis.
35

Bio-Ethanol

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Greenhouse Gas Reductions
Reductions in well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions per km, from biofuels, compared to gasoline(for ethanol) and diesel fuel (for biodiesel)

※ Source : IEA estimates based on a review of recent studies

36

Bio-Ethanol

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Productions
Worldwide, Fuel Ethanol Production is Much Greater than Biodiesel.

Unit : million litres per year

※ Source : F.O. Lichts

★ Note : source IEA Bioethanol 33 bn litres, Biodiesel 3.9 bn litres (2005)

37

Bio-Ethanol

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Productions
Fuel Ethanol Production Trends by Region

※ Source : F.O. Lichts

38

Bio-Ethanol

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Possible Production Scenario
Bio-Ethanol Production : Past and Future?

※ Source : projections based on IEA review of recent policy initiatives around the world

39

Activities around the world

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 EU : targeting 5.75% of motor fuel use by 2010  US : legislation still pending that could increase ethanol use by 2010 to around 5% of gasoline; strong price incentive already in place  India : 5% ethanol blending required in some regions; eventually whole country  Latin America : new production initiatives in many countries; export orientation  Many other countries have recently announced various incentives and targets

40

Prospect and Segment

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Scenario Ⅰ: aggressive growth case
2006 Bio-Diesel Bio-Ethanol Total World Diesel World Gasoline Consumption Ratio
(Bio-Diesel/World Diesel)

[Unit : m TOE]

2010 14.639 38.832 53.471 1,584.539 0.92% 1,211.932 3.20%

2015 25.041 54.465 79.505 1,665.367 1.50% 1,273.753 4.28%

2020 36.239 76.389 112.628 1,750.317 2.07% 1,338.727 5. 71%

3.735 29.625 33.360 1,470.865 0.25% 1,124.988 2.63%

Consumption Ratio
(Bio-Ethanol/World Gasoline)

* Assumption
- Bio-Diesel : assumed expectation based on aggressive prospect of Bio-Diesel - Bio-Ethanol : 7% of annual growth rate - Diesel consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011 - Gasoline consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011

41

Prospect and Segment

Ⅰ. PV & Wind

 Scenario Ⅰ: aggressive growth case
Aggressive Penentration of Biofuel Energy 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.20% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2006 2010 year Diesel Ratio Gasoline Ratio 2015 2020 0.92% 0.25% 2.63% 2.07% 1.50% 5.71%

4.28%

42

Prospect and Segment

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Scenario Ⅱ : moderate growth case
2006 Bio-Diesel Bio-Ethanol Total World Diesel World Gasoline Consumption Ratio
(Bio-Diesel/World Diesel)

[Unit : m TOE]

2010 10.166 35.336 45.502 1,584.539 0.64% 1,211.932 2.92%

2015 19.332 45.099 64.431 1,665.367 1.16% 1,273.753 3.54%

2020 28.952 57.559 86.512 1,750.317 1.65% 1,338.727 4.30%

3.735 29.071 32.806 1,470.865 0.25% 1,124.988 2.58%

Consumption Ratio
(Bio-Ethanol/World Gasoline)

* Assumption
- Bio-Diesel : assumed expectation based on moderate prospect of Bio-Diesel - Bio-Ethanol : 5% of annual growth rate - Diesel consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011 - Gasoline consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011

43

Prospect and Segment

Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel

 Scenario Ⅱ : moderate growth case
Moderate Penentration of Biofuel Energy 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 2006 2010 year Diesel Ratio Gasoline Ratio 2015 2020 0.25% 0.64% 1.16% 2.58% 2.92% 3.54% 4.30%

1.65%

44

 PV & Wind Power  Bio-Fuel

 Nuclear Energy
01_ Nuclear Advantage 02_ Production 03_ Prospect and Segment

 Conclusion

45

Nuclear Advantage

Ⅲ. Nuclear Energy

Nuclear Energy is the best Alternative Energy to replace Fossil Fuel ◆ Coal is environmentally not benign and causes global warming and acid rain ◆ Gas is very difficult to be transported in large quantities ◆ Renewable Energy is not cost effective and does not contribute significantly to reduce fossil fuel ◆ Nuclear is the next best alternative energy source with potential for scaling up

46

Production

Ⅲ. Nuclear Energy

Nuclear Power has represented the main production of the world electricity generation.
20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0 2000.0 0.0 1990 1991 992 1 1993 994 1 1995 996 1 1997 998 999 1 1 2000 001 2 2002 003 2 2004 005 2 2006 Nuclear
※ Source : BP’s statistical review full report workbook 2007

World Electricity

47

Prospect and Segment

Ⅲ. Nuclear Energy

The annual growth rate of nuclear power generation will enter a step change post 2010 period when new pebble bed reactor technology will be globally applied 2% of growth rate : 2006~2010 10% of growth rate : 2011~2020
◎ Forecast of growth rate
- 437 working reactors operating worldwide currently ; the average unit capacity : 815 MW (utilization rate : 90%) - 30 under construction - 74 planned and 182 proposed - Construction period : approx. 5 years - Recent single unit capacity : 1,600 MW (Olkiluoto, Filand) - China started to build nuclear power stations ; 11 reactor operating, 4 under construction, 23 in the planning stages and 54 proposed

48

Prospect and Segment

Ⅲ. Nuclear Energy

 Aggressive growth scenario
2006 Nuclear Generation Consumption Electricity Ratio Primary Energy Consumption Ratio 14.76% 10,878.5 5.84% 14.19% 12,007.8 5.73% 19.72% 13,257.6 8.36% 635.5 4,306.3 2010 687.9 4,846.8 2015 1,107.8 5,618.7

[Unit : m TOE]

2020 1,784.2 6,513.7 27.39% 14,637.5 12.19%

* Assumption
- Nuclear Energy growth rate : 2.0%(2006~2010), 10.0%(2011~2020), Production in 2006 : 635.5 m TOE (2,808.1 TWh) - World Electricity growth rate : 3.0%, Production in 2006 : 4,306.3 m TOE (19,027.7 TWh) - World Primary Energy growth rate : 2.5%(2006~2010), 2.0%(2011~2020), Production in 2006 : 10,878.5 m TOE

49

Prospect and Segment

Ⅲ. Nuclear Energy

 Aggressive growth scenario
Aggressive Penentration of Nuclear Energy 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.84% 5.00% 0.00% 2006 2010 year Primary Energy Ratio Electricity Ratio 2015 2020 5.73% 14.76% 14.19% 8.36% 19.72% 27.39%

12.19%

50

 PV & Wind Power  Bio-Fuel  Nuclear Energy

 Conclusion
01_ Perspective of Energy Consumption 02_ Perspective of CO2 Emission

51

Perspective of Energy Consumption

Ⅳ. Conclusion

 Scenario Ⅰ: aggressive growth case for renewables
[Unit : m TOE] Items Annual Growth Rate
2.5%(06-10) 2.0%(11-20) 2.0%(06-10) 10.0%(11-20) 2%

2006
Share

2010
Share

2015
Share

2020
Share

Primary Energy Nuclear Hydroelectricity Gas Oil Renewables Coal

10,942.5 635.5 688.1 2,574.9 3,889.8 64.1 3,090.1

100%

12,125.0 687.9 744.8

100%

13,495.6 1,107.9 822.3

100%

15,144.5

100%

5.81%

5.67%

8.21%

1,784.3 11.78% 907.9
6.00%

6.29%

6. 14%

6.09%

3%

23.53%

2,898.1 23.90% 4,047.7 33.38% 117.2
0.97%

3,359.7 24.89% 4,254.2 31.52% 238.0
1. 76%

3,894.8 25.72% 4,471.2 29.52% 507.0
3.35%

1% PV&Wind : 20% Biofuels : 7% balance

35.55%

0.59%

28.24%

3,629.3 29.93%

3,713.5 27. 52%

3,579.3 23.63%

52

Perspective of Energy Consumption

Ⅳ. Conclusion

 Scenario Ⅰ: aggressive growth case
40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% (Share) 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2006 2,010.0 (Year) Oil Coal Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Renewables 2015 2020

53

Perspective of Energy Consumption

Ⅳ. Conclusion

 Scenario Ⅱ : moderate growth case for renewables
[Unit : m TOE] Items Annual Growth Rate
Same of aggressive balance

2006
Share

2010
Share

2015
Share

2020
Share

Primary Energy Nuclear Hydroelectricity Gas Oil Renewables Coal

10,942.5 637.4 688.1 2,574.9 3,889.8 62.2 3,090.1

100%

12,125.0 708.1 744.8

100%

13,495.6 1,177.9 822.3

100%

15,144.5

100%

5.82%

5.84%

8.73%

1,996.5 13.18% 907.9
6.00%

2%

6.29%

6.14%

6.09%

3%

23.55%

2,898.1 23.90% 4,047.7 33.38% 97.0
0.80%

3,359.7 24.89% 4,254.2 31.52% 168.0
1.24%

3,894.8 25.72% 4,471.2 29.52% 294.8
1.95%

1% PV&Wind : 15% Biofuels : 5% Same of aggressive

35.55%

0.57%

28.24%

3,629.3 29.93%

3,713.5 27.52%

3,579.3 23.63%

54

Perspective of Energy Consumption

Ⅳ. Conclusion

 Scenario Ⅱ : moderate growth case
40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% (Share) 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2006 2010 (Year) Oil Coal Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Renewables 2015 2020

55

Perspective of CO2 Emission

Ⅳ. Conclusion

[Unit : m ton] CO2 Emission Factors 2006
Share

Items

2010
Share

2015
Share

2020
Share

Primary Energy Nuclear Hydroelectricity Gas Oil Renewables Coal

total

33,047.6 0.0 0.0 5,389.3 11,941.7 0.0 15,716.7

100%

36,950.8 0.0 0.0

100%

38,979.2 0.0 0.0

100%

40,082.7 0.0 0.0

100%

0

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0 2.093 ton·CO2 /TOE 3.070 ton·CO2 /TOE 0 5.086 ton·CO2 /TOE

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

16.31%

6,065.7 16.42% 12,426.6 33.63% 0.0

7,031.8 18.04% 13,060.4 33.51% 0.0

8,151.7 20.34% 13,726.7 34.25% 0.0

36.13%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

47.56%

18,458.6 49.95%

18,887.0 48.45%

18,204.3 45.42%

※ CO₂emission factor source : emission factor brochure 2004 by IPCC

56

Perspective of CO2 Emission

Ⅳ. Conclusion

45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 CO?Emission (m ton) 10,000 5,000 0 2006 2010 Year 2015 2020 Gas Oil Coal Total

57