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Philippine storm surges reported by PAGASA

Reclamation area

Ocean front of this reclamation would experience storm surges as high as 4 meters (13+ feet) increasing as climate change increases the strength of typhoons.
Large storm waves would ride on top of these surges.

Storm surges are worse if they happen at high tide. This increases the difficulty of predicting storm surge size, requiring weather forecasts accurate to within a few hours.

Storm surge

Pinakamapanganib ang storm surge kung mababa ang dahilig ng lupa sa ilalim ng dagat, kagaya sa Manila Bay.
Gently sloping seafloor Steep seafloor

Ocean-going freighters parked on Roxas Boulevard by Patsy and Ora

Typhoon Patsy 14-22 Nov 70

Typhoon Ora 22-30 Jun 72

3. Liquefaction during earthquakes

In water-saturated material such as natural bay fill or reclamation, the solid grains normally are touching. The lower grains bear the weight of grains and buildings on top of them.

But during the minute that an earthquake lasts, the shaking breaks the contact between grains. Together, the solids and water behave as a slurry, or liquid without strength. Buildings sink or topple into it.

Liquified sand comes up to the surface during the earthquake

Sand boils

Mexico City, 1985

Coastal areas underlain by natural sediment and artificial reclamation fill are particularly susceptible to liquefaction during earthquakes. This is true for Californias Bay area as well as Manila Bay.

Earthquake hazard map, Bay Area, California

Northeastern San Francisco California

Most vulnerable areas are natural bay fill and reclaimed areas

Liquefaction in the Marine District in San Francisco, Calif., caused damage during the October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake.

Reclamation areas in Manila Bay would not require an earthquake to occur nearby to suffer serious damage. Manila was the city hardest hit by the magnitude 7.3 earthquake in 1968. Its epicenter was in Casiguran, Quezon, 225 kilometers away. Many structures that were built on river deposits near the mouth of the Pasig River suffered severe damage from liquefaction. The sixstory Ruby Tower in Binondo collapsed, killing 260 people.

Lessons from the 1990 earthquake

Epicenter: Near Rizal, northeast of Cabanatuan, Nueva Ecija

Major damage: Baguio City 100 kilometers away

Dagupan, Pangasinan, 100 kilometers away

Dagupan, Pangasinan 1990