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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Geographic determinants of rice self-sufficiency in Southeast Asia

David Dawe, FAO IRRI, 6 September 2013

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Rice trade status, 1904 2009

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

The importance of geography


Consistent importers are all islands or peninsulas. This phenomenon extends beyond SE Asia to Japan, Korea and Sri Lanka. Consistent exporters are all on the mainland, with dominant river deltas that provide ample water and flat land.

Bangladesh is a bit of an exception to the rule, as it is on the mainland but is a (small) net importer.

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

The importance of geography


This pattern is also true within countries. Southern Thailand (a peninsula) imports rice from the rest of the country, while Central Luzon (fed by the Pampanga River) exports rice to Manila.

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Self-sufficiency
Self-sufficiency is determined by both supply and demand. But importers have the highest levels of wheat consumption. Thus, the exporters have not achieved self-sufficiency by eating less rice their advantage comes from producing more rice.

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Rice importers eat more wheat

Wheat and rice consumption per capita

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Mainland countries produce more rice

Rice production (paddy terms) per person, ASEAN

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Why is rice production per person low in


the importing countries?

Prod = rice production POP = population RA = rice area (harvested)


Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Rice area harvested per person, ASEAN

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Rice yields, ASEAN

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Differences in rice production per person across


countries are mostly determined by differences in rice area harvested per person, not differences in yield.

A regression of Prod/Pop on RA/Pop gives an R2 of


0.78, while a regression of Prod/Pop on Prod/RA gives an R2 of just 0.03.

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Why do different countries have different rice area


harvested per person?

RA = rice area (harvested) POP = Population TCA = total crop area (harvested) AA = agricultural area LA = land area
Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

The R2 of a regression of RA/POP on RA/TCA is 0.74, while the R2 of a regression of RA/POP on each of the other three variables individually never reaches more than 0.11. Even regressing RA/POP on the other three variables jointly gives a negative adjusted R2 (compared to an adjusted R2 of 0.70 for RA/TCA).
Thus, rice area harvested per person is determined primarily by rices share in total cropped area.

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Average nominal domestic paddy prices, farm level, 1991-2006

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Rice prod/person vs. share of crop area devoted to rice

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

How did the Philippines achieve self-sufficiency in the 1980s?

Adoption rates of modern varieties, 1966 - 1997


Source of raw data: IRRI

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Consequences of the drive to self-sufficiency


Domestic rice prices in importing countries tend to be higher than in exporting countries, due to trade restrictions. Higher domestic prices, coupled with a shortage of land suitable for growing rice, has led to more irrigation and higher yields in the rice-importing countries. Higher domestic prices have encouraged dietary diversification to wheat.

Higher domestic prices lead to higher poverty rates and greater malnutrition (trade-off between SS and food security).
Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Agricultural Development Economics Division

Thank you for your kind attention

Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

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