Future Focus Technology

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus
Business means Technology Ian Jones, NCC, Head of Research
2009 IBM Corporation



2009 IBM Corporation

About NCC


2009 IBM Corporation

Change is the only constant…..

–Did you Know?


2009 IBM Corporation

Technology Trends: Enterprise 2.0 – the old guard vs the 2.0ers

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Enterprise 2.0: Examples…


2009 IBM Corporation

Enterprise 2.0: Examples


2009 IBM Corporation

Enterprise 2.0: Examples – www.twine.com


2009 IBM Corporation

Technology Trends - Cloud Computing

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2009 IBM Corporation

Put simply…

Cloud Computing is… the externalisation
of enterprise IT across the

internet to provide business

services from a commodity based infrastructure….
…. With and

payment by usage…

limited, if any, commitment from either side.
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Its all about convergence - a brief history….

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2009 IBM Corporation

Market predictions… software and IT Services

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2009 IBM Corporation


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2009 IBM Corporation

Why not?

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2009 IBM Corporation

Recommendations – what now?

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2009 IBM Corporation

Security vs. Accessibility…

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2009 IBM Corporation

Ian Jones, NCC Head of Research
Tel: 0161 242 2170 Email: ian.jones@ncc.co.uk

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2009 IBM Corporation

Internet Security - Threat Landscape: Trends

―Attackers are increasingly targeting end users by compromising high-traffic, trusted websites. ―Attackers are moving their operations to regions with emerging Internet infrastructures and, in some instances, developing and maintaining their own service provisioning. ―Cross-functional industry cooperation in the security community is becoming imperative.
― source: Symantec Security Threats Report 2009

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2009 IBM Corporation


Internet Security T

Malicious code is installed source: Symantec Security Threats Report 2009
IV • In 2008, an average of more than 245 million attempted malicious code attacks blocked worldwide each month. • Over 60% of malicious code signatures were created in 2008. • Over 90% of threats discovered in 2008 are threats to confidential information.

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Stolen Information is sold source: Symantec Security Threats Report 2009
• Credit card information (32%) and bank account credentials (19%) continue to Internet Security Threat Report XIV be the most frequently advertised items. • The price range of credit cards remained consistent in 2008, ranging from $0.06 to $30 per card number. • Compromised email accounts can provide access to other confidential information and additional resources.

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2009 IBM Corporation


Phishing trends
source: Symantec Security Threats Report 2009

―In 2008, 55,389 detected phishing website hosts,
– Increase of 66 percent over 2007, when 33,428 phishing hosts detected.

―In 2008, 43 percent of all phishing websites identified were located in the United States,
– In 2007 69 percent of such sites were based there.

―One particular automated phishing toolkit identified was responsible for an average of 14% of all phishing attacks during 2008.

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2009 IBM Corporation



source: Symantec Security Threats Report 2009 IV

• Over the past year, Symantec observed a 192 percent increase in spam detected across the Internet as a whole, from 119.6 billion messages in 2007 to 349.6 billion in 2008. • In 2008, bot networks were responsible for the distribution of approximately 90 percent of all spam email. • Russia, Turkey, and Brazil experienced significant increases in spam volume this year.

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2009 IBM Corporation


In summary
―Technology has a pivotal role ―IT Security Policy – dust it off and update it… ―Use it… ―Make sure its owned at the highest possible level.. ―and used at all levels…

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2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus
Jay Bregman

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Focus of Future Technology Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
2009 IBM Corporation

Client Challenges and IBM Smarter Planet Focus Five Technologies that are changing Business 3. Mobile Payments and advanced RFID 4. Collaborative Technologies and Customer Interaction 5. The 3D Internet and Virtual Worlds 6. Cloud Computing Examples 7. Exploiting Data – Digital Surveillance Summary

Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

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2009 IBM Corporation

For us to make sense of this new world, we must consider four critical challenges
“Data is exploding and it’s “My infrastructure is inflexible “New business & process and costly” demands ” in silos”
I Need Insight I need to respond quickly I Need to Work Smart

“Our resources are limited”
I Need Efficiency

How can we take advantage of the wealth of information available in real time from a multitude of sources to make more intelligent choices?

How do I create an infrastructure that drives down cost, is intelligent and secure, and is just as dynamic as today’s business climate ?

How can I work smarter supported by flexible and dynamic processes modeled for the new way people live & work.

How do we align our goals & behaviors with our new responsibilities to so care for our planet and its people.

New Intelligence

Dynamic Infrastructure

Smart Work

Green & Beyond

Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

Page 30

2009 IBM Corporation

Four key initiatives

IBM’s smarter planet vision

New Intelligence

Dynamic Infrastructure Smart Work
The world has become flatter and smaller. Now it must become smarter.

Green & Beyond

Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

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2009 IBM Corporation

NFC (Near Field Communications)

Payments Access Marketing

2D barcode sensor
Access to services
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009 Page 32 2009 IBM Corporation

Contactless and mobile payment trends differ among regions
POS 0.5M Convenience in commuting drives adoption in US
 

2M Transit drives adoption in Europe

40M Japan and Korea leading the world in contactless

EzPass, Mobile Speed Pass early dominators Parking, Pharmacy and Retail stores following with contactless payments  e.g. Chase Blink

Effort and cost of EMV rollout slowing interest in contactless launched Visa Wave with 50K  Growth driven by transit cards/mobile phones, accepted at 66 pilot systems in Paris, London, national Tesco stores Lisbon bitWallet JV pf NTT Suica adoption & Sony with 43K driven by East merchants, 23m Japan railways launches PayPass in users 7/06 with 25K cards

launched Visa Wave in 2005 with 300K cards, 2 co-brand partners Watson’s and CostCo
Source: Datamonitor, June, 2006, “Contactless Payments 2006”, ePayments News Network, 7/06, ABI 3/07, Cardline, Aberdeen Group 2006, IBM analysis Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

= other pilots and trials

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2009 IBM Corporation

Collaboration Landscape

Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

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2009 IBM Corporation

COBRA … listening to the voice of the customer COBRA includes a dynamic dashboard where filters can narrow the search down to specific topics

Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

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2009 IBM Corporation

The Evolution of Communities Over the Centuries
InterGalactic Galactic Solar System Planetary InterContinental Continental Regional Local
3000BC Papyrus 2000BC Alphabetic Writing 2400BC Courier System 6000BC-4000BC Symbolic Writing

Physical / Communications Reach

ast adc Bro 1902
Electric Typewriter

b Glo


al Physic
405BC Heliograph 196BC Rosetta Stone

~1800 First Typewriter 1896 Radio

1927 Television

~2015 Voyager I will leave Solar system 1969 Man Reaches the Moon   

  2063 1st Warp Drive 2151 Enterprise NX-01

~1041 Pi Sheng Printing Press

1837 Morse’s Telegraph 1792 Semaphores ~1450 Gutenberg Printing Press

~1860 Telephone

Digital Divide
1969 Internet 1943 Colossus

2000 International Space Station 1989 The WEB 1987 MMORPG 1991 3D MMORPG 1981 IBM PC

Digital Communities
2006 Second Life


Industrial Revolution and Egyptian Dynasties Roman Empire Middle Ages Renaissance Urbanization
2000BC 1000BC 0
Engineered Roads 2000BC Horses Tamed 770 Iron Horseshoes




3500BC Wheeled Carts & River Boats

1672 Steam car


1804 Steam Locomotive 1783 Hot Air Balloon



Industrialization and SubUrbanization
1903 Airplane

Information Age Digital Communities



Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

Constructed from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_timelines

Exploration and Exploitation by Ocean Going Ships

1947 1908 Supersonic Automobile Flight Assembly Line 1926 Liquid Fueled Rocket

1967 Concorde

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2009 IBM Corporation

How does IBM use Virtual Worlds?

Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

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2009 IBM Corporation

Cloud Computing – a Disruptive New Paradigm
“Clouds will transform the information technology (IT) industry… profoundly change the way people work and companies • Provides massively scalable computing resources from operate.”
anywhere • Simplifies services delivery • Enables rapid innovation of new business models • Dynamic Infrastructure for next generation data centers
Software as a Service

Cloud Computing


Utility Computing

Grid Computing

Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

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2009 IBM Corporation

Cloud Computing
Network-Delivered Services are the culmination of a long term trend to simplify the purchasing of IT Services

Definition: Cloud computing is a model of shared networkdelivered services, both public and private, in which the user sees only the service, and need not worry about implementation details
Types of Clouds
Private Cloud On-premise or remote Specialty Cloud Provides services to a particular industry, geography, etc. Built with deep application knowledge Requires technology for security / isolation Commodity Cloud Generic services (CPU cycles, e-mail, storage, etc) available to anyone Requires massive scalability in operation and management

The 5 Layers of Cloud Services People Services Business Services Application Services Platform Services Infrastructure Services
Social Networking Collaboration Sales Force Automation

Customer Care


Industry Frameworks & Information Foundation

Open SOA Foundation Service Bus

Service-oriented architecture Built on New Enterprise Data Center

Distributed Cloud Computing Services

Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

Page 39

2009 IBM Corporation

Growing Portfolio of IBM Cloud Computing Offerings
A portfolio of leadership products and services for optimizing with cloud computing that continues to grow to support customers with cloud building and cloud delivered offerings.

Cloud Consulting
Infrastructure strategy & planning for cloud computing Business cloud consulting services IT optimization services

Cloud Implementation
IBM design and implementation for test & developer Cloud IBM Service Management Center for Cloud Computing Scale out File Services

Cloud Delivered
IBM LotusLive Computing on Demand IBM Information Protection Services • Remote data protection service • Managed data protection for desktops and laptops

Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

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2009 IBM Corporation

History of exploiting data
The ability to extract value from massive amounts of data and respond to real-time information is becoming a crucial competitive differentiator. Value is realized by making smart data-driven decisions. Unstructured Information ~ 80%
video image audio Solution Area Analytic technology Surveillance video analysis feature extraction image recognition speech recognition Call-center apps translation

Social Network Analysis Story understanding pass SAT, GRE … Question Answering Patent Mining SEC doc analysis correspondence analysis terrorist threat Reputation Analysis

event recognition

Data Types


1958 H.P. Luhn (IBM) defines the term Business Intelligence

sentiment recognition keyword search entity recognition term extraction Linguistic models

Structured ~ 20%

Mesopotamia Egypt





Zhou Dynasty Inca

Operations Research Optimization


Black Monte Carlo Swans simulations neural networks Machine Learning Supply-Chain Management predictive modeling
clustering decision trees






Roman Empire

Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009 data warehousing

data mining

1889 Hollerith Tabulating Machine Patent 395782 1654 Pascal and Fermat Credit Probability Theory

Customer Segmentation
queuing theory

stochastic analysis

Risk Portfolio Optimization
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Markov decision process

Intelligent Security - Smart Surveillance Big Brother is Watching !! Turning video data into useful information

IBM Research

Enters store without product

At returns counter with product

What: “Find red cars” Value: Respond to new threats

What: “Match people across cameras” Value: Prevent Returns Fraud

Customer hot spot – high value display area in store

Sample Smart Surveillance Solutions

Lunch / After work peak traffic at store What: Count people Value: Measure Conversion Rate Virtual Perimeter around Tarmac

Bets placed after cards are dealt

What: Space usage statistics Value: Display Effectiveness

What: Real-time Alerting Value: Prevent Cheating in Casinos

What: Real-time Alerting Value: Prevent illegal entry into secure area

Succeeding in the New Economic Current Climate

Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

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2009 IBM Corporation

Real-time Translation Services

Simplified Business Engines

Intelligent Utility Networks

3D Internet

“Digital Me”

Big Green Innovations

Branchless Banking for the Masses

Smart Healthcare Payment Systems

Intelligent Transportation Systems

Electronic Health Record System

Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009

Page 45

2009 IBM Corporation

Do one brave thing today … then run like heck !!

Do one brave thing today … then run like heck !!
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009 Page 46 2009 IBM Corporation


Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus
Suttons Consumer Products Limited Alex Grenfell

2009 IBM Corporation

• Old established (1806) company in gardening sector • Part of foreign owned Group • Generally known as “Suttons Seeds” • Famous brand – “heritage; quality; trust”, all those sort of things • Classic SME; maybe more ‘M’ than ‘S’! • Some vitals: Sales £18m. Profitable c.200 staff Based South Devon R.W.H.
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• “Sell / supply products to / for the amateur gardener” • Those products include Seed ( of course!) Plants – all types Bulbs Tools & Equipment Propagation etc. • Approx. 6000 sku’s • Using Suttons + 3 other brands (+ own label)

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2009 IBM Corporation

• Private consumers (M.O. / Ecommerce) • Smaller Independents up to major multiples (Tesco, Asda, B & Q etc.) • Garden Clubs, Local Authorities etc. • TV Home Shopping • Press / Promotional Companies / Agencies • Overseas – Russia to USA to Dubai to Italy etc. = Extremely diverse range of customers!

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2009 IBM Corporation

• Complexity! (Products, Customers, Brands ....) • “Working in the ‘sleepy world’ of gardening” (but Tesco, Asda, B & Q not sleepy!) • Trusted / famous brand • “Friendly but Professional” • “Industry best” levels of service and support

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2009 IBM Corporation

• Managing the complexity we have – should we rationalise (pro’s and cons)? • We have a mature workforce – average age upper 40’s What thoughts on the issue of succession? (ignore it / let it happen; plan carefully; whatever ….) • The conundrum of history / heritage / modernity (internet, EDI, etc.) What thoughts on balancing these (sometimes) opposing aspects of the business?

…….. Suitable words of wisdom welcomed!

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2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus
Smart Ideas

2009 IBM Corporation

Smart Ideas from forward-looking organisations
Future Focus website has become a hub for Smart Ideas including The Ultimate Leadership Guide – a desktop tool with a synopsis of all the best advice on everything from motivation and problem solving to planning and self-development Flexible Skills Bank – allowing smaller businesses to tap into a register of skilled professionals who work part time and freelance Study Ball – quite literally, a 21 pound ball and chain with a timed release designed to ensure your son or daughter doesn‘t slope off when they should be revising for exams (!)

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2009 IBM Corporation

Favourite Smart Ideas: Hydrocyc from DPS Engineering
DPS specialise in process systems for the oil and gas industry Now developed a domestic water recycling system called Hydrocyc Recycles 'grey' water - the waste from baths, showers and hand basins - so that it can be used for flushing toilets or watering the garden. Considerably smaller, lighter and more affordable than any alternative systems Reduces water bills by as much as 30-35pc (the amount of drinking water currently used to flush the toilet in a typical home) Homeowners should recoup the cost within just two years www.dps-global.com

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2009 IBM Corporation

Favourite Smart Ideas: Niggle
Niggle offers businesses customer feedback technology which is free at the point of use. Any organisation can advertise Niggle feedback channels to their customers, encouraging customers to send feedback via text message, mobile phone and online. The service is completely free to the business. Customer contact details are protected by Niggle, so customers trust it as an independent feedback delivery service. Niggle makes money when businesses ‘upgrade’ to use Niggle to reply to and reward customer feedback – even if it’s given anonymously. www.niggle.co.uk

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Runner-Up: OfficePOD

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2009 IBM Corporation

The Service + Product
The Full Service - site survey, enabling work, installation, customer support, repairs, relocation and removal. Lease - £5k p.a. + VAT Preferred by medium/large organisations as a full outsourced service. Purchase - £20k + VAT. Preferred by smaller organisations as tax deductible within £50k annual allowance.

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OfficePOD is a Smart Idea because it
1. Reduces fixed costs by £9k/person/annum plus for any business currently paying rent >£50 / sq ft 2. Attracts and retains the best staff – Proximity to the fixed office no longer an issue 3. Improves environmental/CSR position – Instant CO2 reduction between 46-67% 4. Increases productivity – Properly managed home-working increases productivity 5. Creates a business that’s flexible/dynamic to change with incremental growth possible 6. Shorter order & commitment period than normal office & transferable if employee moves or leaves 7. Outsource Non-Core Service – ‘One-stop shop’ for provision of the work environment

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Best Smart Idea: The Highways Agency

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Need for change
1958 2.8m Vehicles 8.62 miles of Motorway Preston Bypass cost £2.9m 2008 28m Cars 33m Vehicles 2025 miles of Motorway 6500 miles of Motorways and Trunk Roads M/way and Trunk Roads worth >£80bn

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2009 IBM Corporation

Smart Ideas for managing motorways
“Toolkit” of technologies and construction procedures to make better use of motorways and trunk roads

• Additional capacity for vehicles (see extra lane on left) • Piloting & evaluating new and innovative concepts • Helping to alleviate congestion • Improving the detection of & response to incidents • Reducing delays caused by incidents or congestion

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Information Technology

4,450 traffic sensors
1,030 ANPR cameras to monitor journey times (448 sites) 1,000 CCTV cameras 1,250 MIDAS sites 1,470 other outstations measuring flow Equipment Availability 98.7%

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2009 IBM Corporation

Better Information

Mobile website

Information Points

Variable Message Signs Traffic Radio

Internet Services

HA National Traffic Control Centre

Information Line 08457 50 40 30
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Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

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