POWER SCENARIO IN INDIA

RAHUL VIKRAM rahul.vikram@gmail.com
MBA “POWER MANAGEMENT” NATIONAL POWER TRAINING INSTITUTE FARIDABAD. (MINISTRY OF POWER)

“POWER”
POWER or ELECTRICITY critical infrastructural component for multidimensional growth and basic human need Reliable and quality power at competitive rates to Indian industry - important for global competition.  Clean and Green Sustainable Power – need of the day.  Energy Security

PRESENT POWER SCENARIO
(ACCORDING TO 11th PLAN)(as on MAY, 2009) TOTAL INSTALL CAPACITY THERMAL POWER CAPACITY HYDRO POWER CAPACITY NUCLEAR POWER CAPACITY RENEWABLE POWER CAPACITY PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION 147402.81 MW 93392 MW 36647.76 MW 4120 MW 13242.41 MW 740 kwh

DEMAND PROJECTION (UPTO:2012)
TOTAL INSTALL CAPACITY (CAPACITY ADDITION ) THERMAL POWER CAPACITY HYDRO POWER CAPACITY NUCLEAR POWER CAPACITY PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION 2,24,907 MW MW 54693 MW 15267 MW 3380 MW 1000 kwh

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN INDIA
Growth Pattern

As per UN Methodology (Gross Electrical Energy Availability / Population)

Source: CEA

CAPACITY ADDITION PLANNING TH TH FOR 11 AND 12 PLAN

10TH PLAN –TARGET AND ACTUAL CAPACITY ADDITION
( W M )  Original T arget  Capacity Slipped / Dropped  Net Capacity Addition from Original Target  Additional Projects identified during the Plan   Capacity Slipping from additional projects Net Capacity Addition from additional Projects 1,351 41,110 21,281 19,829 8,320 6,969

Net Capacity added during 10TH Plan

21,180*
6

* Thermal -12,114 MW, Hydro – 7,886 MW, Nuclear – 1180 MW

MAJOR REASONS FOR SLIPPAGES FROM 10th PLAN (MW)
S . N o Original Plan Major Reasons for Slippage Delay in supplies/erection by suppliers/ contractors Delay in tie-up super critical technology by BHEL (one unit at Sipat and one at Kahalgaon were replaced by 500 MW units) Non-availability of Gas Delay in award of works mainly in state sector/NLC Projects not taken up/Escrow cover not given/financial closure not achieved/funds not tied up Delay in clearance/investment decision (Hydro projects) Hydro Project - delay in environmental clearance, geological surprises, natural calamities, R&R issues, delay in signing of MoU, Court Cases Law & Order Problems Nuclear projects included on best effort basis(otherwise scheduled for XI plan) Adjustment due to change of size Total Thermal 2670 3960 1713 1423 5278     500   - 990 14554 Nuclear 220                   220 Hydro 679     222   2391 3155 60     6507 Additional ProjectsThermal 3350   1450 835 23       1220 91 6969*

1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10  

Total slippage: 21,281MW * Out of a total additional capacity of 8320 MW identified during Mid –Term Review

Major Steps of Integrated approach
 Capacity Addition from Conventional fuel based plants complemented by Renewable Energy based plants to extent possible. National Electricity Plan based on Conventional Energy Sources with priority to Hydro and Nuclear plants Strategies/ Initiatives being taken/ required to be taken for low carbon growth i.e. Introduction of Clean Coal Technologies (Supercritical Technology, Ultra supercritical technology, IGCC), Other measures to reduce pollution i.e. Reduction in T&D losses, R&M of Old thermal power projects, Retirement of old and small size generating units, Coal quality improvement

POWER GENERATION-STRATEGY •Large emphasis on hydro development. Constraints restricting progress are large gestation period, high capital cost, Issues such as R&R, law & order etc. New Hydro Policy to encourage private participation in hydro power generation. •Limited dependability on gas based capacity - Availability of gas at reasonable rates being a constraint for gas based projects. During 11th Plan only about 6,843 MW gas based capacity envisaged. •Active steps to harness Nuclear

POWER GENERATION-STRATEGY
•Renewable energy sources to be made economically viable- At present can play dominant role in meeting remote located demands where not economic to extend the grid. •Coal based power projects expected to be main stay of Indian Power Sector for next 50-70 years. Continuous efforts directed at generating maximum energy from each tone of coal with minimum effect on environment

Development of Hydro Power projects
Plan Period Hydro Capacity Total Hydro Capacity Addition (MW) at the end of plan (MW) 15627 30000 31000 36494 50280 80280 111280 147774

11th Plan (2007-08 to 2011 - 12) 12th Plan (2012-13 to 2016-17) 13th Plan (2017 - 18 to 2021-22) 14th Plan (2022-23 to 2026 - 27)

CAPACITY ADDITION TARGETTED FOR 11th PLAN (SECTORWISE)
15,043 MW
(19%)
PVT SECTOR STATE SECTOR CENTRAL SECTOR

26,783 MW
(34%)

36,874 MW
47%

Total 78,700 MW

FEASIBLE CAPACITY ADDITION FOR 11th PLAN – 77,070* MW
NUCLEAR, 3,380MW, 4.3% HYDRO, 15,507MW, 20.2%

THERMAL, 58,183MW, 75.5%

Thermal – 58,183 MW ( Coal – 48,609 MW, Gas- 7,293 MW, Lignite- 2,280 MW) : New Renewables – 14,000 MW : Captive – 12,000 MW * Feasible capacity as per latest assessment Additional capacity expected

11TH PLAN TARGET AND STATUS
 10th Plan capacity addition only 21,180 MW. About 11,000 MW slippages due to causes attributable to equipment suppliers and contractors. 11th Plan – 77,070 MW - 11,404 MW capacity already commissioned (Till date)  - 65,666 MW (83%) under construction - 85% hydro capacity under construction - Coal Linkage available for 96% of projects    - All gas based projects under execution or gas tied up from local sources

 Additional 3,720 MW thermal projects under best effort category.  Additional 13,000 MW gas based projects if gas available at reasonable price

MAJOR ISSUES AND CONSTRAINTS TO BE ADDRESSED
Fuel Availability
Requirement of coal for 11th Plan – 550 MT; 40 MT equivalent of 68 MT of Indian coal to be imported  Requirement of gas (90% PLF) – 89 MMSCMD; Availability at present- 36 MMSCMD; gas not sufficient

•Transportation for fuel and equipment
Establishment of new rail links for coal evacuation from coal mining blocks  Railways, Coal , MoP to formulate Fuel Supply Transport Agreement

MAJOR ISSUES AND CONSTRAINTS TO BE ADDRESSED

Delays in clearances • Testing facilities to be increased and CPRI to play a proactive role •R&D
Power Utilities as well as manufacturing units to enhance budget allocation for R&D  To attract young talent

11th Plan tentative targets for grid interactive renewable power
(Figures in MW)

Sources / Systems Wind Power Biomass Power Baggasse Cogeneration Biomass Gasifiers Small Hydro (up to 25 MW) Total

Target for 11th plan

10,500 2,100 1400 14,000

Targets for 12th Plan likely to be at least 14,000 MW

12th Plan Tentative Capacity Addition
Demand as per 17th EPS – Energy Requirement – 13,92,066 BU; Peak Demand- 2,18,209 MW Spinning Reserve – 5% as per National Electricity Policy. Capacity corresponding to 3000 MW and 1600 MW also worked out 25,000 MW Hydro and 8,500 MW Nuclear as must run stations. As result of studies 12th Plan total Generating capacity 94,431 which includes 61,171 MW thermal.(28,190 MW PH, 15,495 MW LC, 14,800 MW Coastal)  Capacity with 1600 MW S.R.- 81,570 MW; 3000MW S.R. – 82,970 MW Fuel consumption(2016-17) – Coal 815 MT, Lignite 60 MT All India Studies for 5% S.R: LOLP – 0.18%; ENS – 0.00% (Norms – LOLP-1% & ENS- 0.15%)

13th Plan Tentative Capacity Expansion ASSUMPTIONS
• 17th EPS Demand – Energy Requirement19,14,508 MU; Peak Demand- 2,98,253 MW • Spinning Reserve - 5% . • Beginning of 13th Plan 37,014 MW Coal & Lignite based capacity more than 27 yrs old. (5,634 MW capacity upto 100 MW unit size and 31,380 MW
capacity greater than 100 MW unit size)

• Studies indicate 13th Plan capacity addition-1,05,060 MW (Hydro-34,500 MW, Nuclear -8,000 MW, Thermal -62,560 MW

MAJOR PROBLEMS OF POWER SECTOR
• Inadequate power generation capacity • Lack of optimum utilization of the existing generation capacity • Inadequate inter-regional transmission links • Inadequate and ageing subtransmission & distribution network
Cont..

MAJOR PROBLEMS OF POWER SECTOR
• High T&D losses, large scale theft and skewed tariff structure • Slow pace of rural electrification • Inefficient use of electricity by end consumer • Lack of grid discipline

THANK YOU.

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