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UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop
Assessing Costs and Benefits of Adaptation: Methods and Data
March 11-14, 2013
Dr. Dilip K. Gautam RIMES, AIT Campus, Bangkok
A model is a simplified representation of reality.
A mathematical model consists of series of equations defining the system
we are dealing with. The function of model is to convert the given input into an output.
A hydrological model is the mathematical representation of the response
of a catchment system to hydrologic events during the time period under consideration.
Hydrological phenomena are extremely complex, highly non-linear and
highly variable in space and time.
A model is needed to predict the watershed runoff for the design and
management of water resources utilization and flood control projects.
Classification of Hydrological Models
Hydrological Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment
Simulated flow peaks, volumes and hydrographs at the outlets of subbasins and the points of special interest such as reservoirs, weirs or other hydraulic structures
Simulated long flow sequences for water budget and drought analyses Simulated extent of flooded areas for different precipitation events and various antecedent basin conditions
Hydrologic processes that need to be captured by the model
Single-event precipitation-runoff transformation
Continuous precipitation-runoff transformation Snow accumulation and melt
Interception, infiltration, soil moisture accounting
Evapotranspiration Regulated reservoir operation
• US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering
Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System software runoff process
• Designed to simulate both single event and continuous rainfall-
• Simulates precipitation-runoff and routing processes, both
natural and controlled
• HEC-HMS uses a separate model to represent each
component of the runoff process including: runoff volume; direct runoff (overland flow and interflow); baseflow; channel routing.
HEC-HMS representation of watershed runoff
Key Components of Model
Runoff Volume models: separate infiltration from
pervious surface, runoff from impervious surface, compute the direct runoff volume Direct Runoff models: transform direct runoff volume from excess precipitation into fast component of flow Base Flow models: compute slow subsurface drainage component Routing models: compute flow attenuation and translation over channel Reservoir models: flow regulation
Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use, soil types and other physiographic data Precipitation, temperature data Evaporation/evapotranspiration data Discharge, Water level and Rating curve data Channel and reservoir hydraulic data Generated sequence of meteorological data representing various scenarios of future climate
Upper Chao Phraya Basin, Thailand Catchment Area = 105553 sq. km.
Dams and Reservoirs
Bhumibol dam in the Ping River (Storage 13462 MCM)
Sirikit dam in the Nan River (Storage 9510 MCM) Kwae Noi dam in Kwae Noi River (Storage 766 MCM) Kiew Kor Mha dam in Wang River (Storage 171 MCM) Kiew Lom dam in Wang River (Storage 112 MCM)
Data preparation using HEC-GeoHMS
Delineate catchment and river network
Obtain catchment characteristics data (area, slope etc) Make Thiessen polygon Obtain Thiessen weights Prepare basin file
Data preparation using HEC-DSSVue
Time series data (rainfall, discharge etc.)
Pair data (elevation-storage)
Meteorological model Time series data Pair data Control specification
Evapotranspiration Snowmelt : not applicable for upper Chao Phraya
Gauge weights : selected for upper Chao Phraya
Inverse distance Gridded precipitation Frequency storm SCS storm Specified Hyetograph Standard project storm
Monthly Average : selected for upper Chao Phraya
Priestley-Taylor Gridded Priestley-Taylor
Gridded temperature index
Simulation start date/time
Simulation end date/time Time interval
Finding optimal parameter values Minimizing difference between simulated flow
and observed flow Objective functions
Peak weighted RMS error
Percent error peak
Percent error volume RMS log error Sum of absolute residuals Sum of squared residuals Time weighted error
Nelder Mead Univariate Gradient
The Basin Model
Simulated Hydrograph at Basin Outlet
R2 = 0.71 BIAS = 6.7 % NS = 0.71
Semi-distributed physically based deterministic
hydrological models are powerful tools for assessing climate change impact on water resources. Continuous modeling approach could be taken to assess the impact on flow volume. Care should be taken to interpret the results as there are lots of uncertainties in the model inputs, parameters and structure of the model. Uncertainties associated with climate models will also be carried over.
Thank You !
Dr. Dilip K. Gautam, Senior Hydrologist, RIMES E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org Website: www.rimes.int