Estimating school age population based on the 2000 and 2010 Census of Population and Housing

Rosario G. Manasan Philippine Institute for Development Studies 7 June 2013

Overview of presentation Rationale Approach and methodology  Some improvement over the one that was approved by the NSCB Board previously Summary/ recommendations .

g. gross enrolment rates [GER] and net enrolment rates [NER]) are based on estimates of school-age population  2000 Census-based population projections appear to be on high side  Some results at the regional level do not seem to tally with reality . enrolment projections are based on Grade 1 intake and survival rates from year to year  Grade 1 intake depends on intake rate and age-specific population projection  Education sector – performance indicators (e..Rationale: Why DepED needs the population estimates?  As input to its medium-term planning and budgeting (MTEP)  Medium-term expenditure plan – driven by enrolment projections  In model used.

Approach and methodology  Total population for any given year  estimated by applying intercensal growth rate to previous year  Population for five-year age groups in 2010 onwards  estimated based on 2010 age distribution  Population for five-year age groups in 2000-2010  estimated by applying intercensal age-group specific growth rate. but results subsequently adjusted  Population for single age within any given fiveyear age group  estimated by applying modified de Beers formula .

3 64.2 96.1 89.5 86.4 a/ school-age population estimated based on 2000 and 2010 CPH based on methodology just presented b/ from WB Public Expenditure Review c/ school-age population based on 2010 CPH but age-distribution adjusted using de Beers formula.3 64.8 83. ES NER using unadjusted 2010 CPH age-distribution is 95.9 2007 110.8 93.4 and SS NER using unadjusted 2010 CPH age-distribution is 64.5 2010 c/ 113.3 62.Table 3.0 94.1 87.8 2009 112.6 2008 111.5 85.8 85.6 58.9 59.4 87.9 58.4 62.5 83.4 58.4 84.4 57.9 85. .2 2011 113.0 83.8 2006 109.7 91.4 83.8 62.5 59.9 85.5.2 58.6 59.1 83.7 95.8 83. 2004-2011 a/ GER a/ NER (new) a/ NER (old) b/ ES SS ES SS ES SS 2004 110.4 2005 108. Gross Enrollment Rate and Net Enrollment Rate at the Elementary and Secondary Levels.9 85.

2% 6.8% 78.3% 73.4% 72.8% 8.3% 61.0% 74.1% 7.6% 79.2% 7.5% 78.0% 79.4% 8.5% 79.3% 73.0% 67.1% 7.7% 71.7% 75.2% 78. Completion Rates and School Leavers Rates).5% 77.6% 8.8% 70.0% 68.4% a/ basec on reconstructed cohort .4% 73.3% 74.1% 7.1% 72.9% 71.2% 72.3% 73.4% 75.7% 12.0% 6.8% 74.7% 8.8% 72. Internal Efficiency Indicators (Cohort Survival Rates.4% 71.0% 70.9% 75.0% 75.0% 74.4% 75.4% 7.4% 73.6% 6.3% 72.3% 69. 2002-2011 a/ 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Elementary level cohort survival rate completion rate school leavers rate Secondary level cohort survival rate completion rate school leavers rate 77.1% 6.5% 77.Table 4.2% 6.2% 7.1% 8.7% 6.1% 6.4% 71.7% 71.5% 71.3% 6.

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4 57.2 a / s chool -a ge popul a ti on e s ti ma te d ba s e d on 2000 a nd 2010 CPH ba s e d on me thodol ogy jus t pre s e nte d a / s chool -a ge popul a ti on ba s e d on 2010 CPH but a ge di s tri buti on a djus te d us i ng de Be e rs formul a .8 83.1 2005 108. 20042011 a/ GER NER ES SS ES SS 2004 110.9 85.8 93.Table 3.5 2010 b/ 113.8 2009 112.1 89.4 2006 109.9 85.8 62.2 2011 113.5 86.9 59.5 85. ES NER us i ng una djus te d 2010 CPH a ge -di s tri buti on i s 95.4 a nd SS NER us i ng una djus te d 2010 CPH a ge -di s tri buti on i s 64.5.3 64.9 85.0 2008 111.4 62. . Gross Enrollment Rate and Net Enrollment Rate at the Elementary and Secondary Levels.4 87.1 83.7 91.3 64.8 85.3 62.2 96.6 59.5 2007 110.7 95.0 94.4 83.

• GER/ NER estimates based on NSO official population projections .

Approach and methodology  Total population for any given year estimated by applying intercensal growth rate to previous year  xx  xx  Xx  DepED  xx  xx  xx .

Rationale: Why DepED needs the estimates? DepED xx xx Xx DepED xx xx xx .

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