Nuke Newcome 703-684-2900 www.sra.

com
www.uavforum.com

From Science Fiction…
“The telescreen received and transmitted simultaneously… There was of course no way of knowing whether you were being watched at any given moment… It was even conceivable that (the police) watched everybody all the time… You had to live… in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard and… every movement scrutinized.” George Orwell, 1984 (1949)

…To Today’s Reality

The Washington Post 26 Aug 2001 p.C2

Lessons in Forecasting
Yesterday‟s outlandish predictions tend to become today‟s mundane reality - What would a cabbie of 1949 think of the 2001 photo? You have to look backward to measure progress forward - Change is seldom appreciated while it is happening - Orwell was off by 17 years (1984 v. 2001) = 50% Socio-economic factors govern technology progress - Cameras in cabs driven by cost and frequency of crime The future always holds wild cards - Who forecast the appearance of the internet?

Overview
Requirements (Environmental) Emerging Technologies Potential Customers Technologies Customer

Requirements

Platform Environment Requirements
SATELLITES 500K

ALTITUDE (FT)

400K

300K

SOUNDING ROCKETS

NO-MAN ZONE

200K

“PSEUDOLITES”

BLAST

BALLOONS 100K MANNED AIRCRAFT
WB-57 ER-2 F/A-18 C-141 T-34 DC-8 P-3 Helios Pathfinder Global Hawk Altair Condor

6

12

18

24

30 48

72

96

120

ENDURANCE (HRS)

DHS & NASA Platform Requirements
SATELLITES 500K

ALTITUDE (FT)

400K

NO-MAN ZONE “PSEUDOLITES”

300K

SOUNDING ROCKETS

200K

NASA: Satellite Cal/Val Diurnal Research Mars Testing
BLAST

BALLOONS 100K MANNED AIRCRAFT
WB-57 ER-2 F/A-18 C-141 T-34 DC-8 P-3 Helios Pathfinder Altair Global Hawk Condor Condor

DHS: Border/Port Patrol 12 6 Hazmat Response

18

24

30 48

72

96

120

ENDURANCE (HRS)

Technologies Overview
What is just over the horizon in: Aerostructures Power/Propulsion Flight Controls

Sensors
Autonomous Capability

Aerostructures
Autonomic (Self-Repairing) Materials
– Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) microcapsules to “heal” cracks – Ionomer coatings to “self-clean” surfaces – Biologically active molecular arrays to “regrow” damage

Transgenetic Biopolymers
– Bio-production of spider silk from goat milk (“Biosteel”)

Transgenetic Biopolymers
Spider silk is… – Strong: greater tensile strength than steel’s – Flexible: Can stretch 30x its length – Lightweight: 25% lighter than composites Each goat produces 4-22 grams/day of silk protein Status – Over 150 genetically modified goats bred – Silk protein extraction process under development SME: Dr. J. Turner, Nexia Biotechnologies

Autonomic Materials

Status: NSF/USAF/Motorola funded research project SME: Dr S. White, University of Illinois

Power/Propulsion
Fuel Cells – Mass specific power (hp/lb) approaching that of internal combustion engines – Sources of fuel greatly expanded
• Reformates of hydrocarbons 2 • Byproduct (H2S) of oil and natural gas wells • Electrolysis of water

- Increased reliability and lower maintenance cost due to lower parts count – Very low noise level = reduced acoustic signature – Very low vibration level Triggered Isomer Heat Exchanger (TIHE) – Nuclear reaction short of fission; no particulate radiation – Candidate for combined turbine/TIHE cycle engine Thermoelectric Generator Modules

Fuel Cells
GM progress in fuel cells approaching 1 hp/lb specific power

St 3 -1997 Max. Power: Power density: Active area: Pressure: Temperature: 37-41 kW 0.26 kW/l 0.16 kW/kg 500 cm2 2.7 bar 80 °C

St 4 -1998 40 kW 0.77 kW/l 0.31 kW/kg 500 cm2 2.7 bar 80 °C

St 7 -1999 50 -120 kW 1.10 kW/l 0.47 kW/kg 800 cm2 2.7 bar 80 °C

Stack 2000 80 -120 kW 1.44 kW/l 0.83 kW/kg 800 cm2 1.5 - 2.7 bar 80 °C

Current 102 kW 1.75 kW/l 1.25 kW/kg 250 cm2 1.2-1.5 bar 80 °C

Specific Power 0.1 hp/lb

0.2 hp/lb

0.3 hp/lb

0.5 hp/lb

0.76 hp/lb

Triggered Isomer Heat Exchanger
Background – Isomers release energy (gamma rays) when bombarded with x-rays – TIHE energy could heat the airflow going into a turbine in place of burning JP – No particulate radiation occurs Advantages – No fuel combustion pollution – No moving parts – Extremely long endurance enabled Status – UTexas triggered a Hafnium isomer sample by dental x-rays in 1998 SME: Dr C. Collins, University of Texas

Photo Approved for Public Release by USAF ASC/RAV Document Number: ASC 03-0896 Dated 04/22/2003

Thermoelectric Generator Modules

Advantages – Converts waste heat to electricity – No moving parts – Small size (0.5g) – High power density (0.2 w/g) Status – Power density goal of 0.25w/g – Integration on micro air vehicles pending SME: Dr. W. Ng, Techsburg

Specific Power Trends

Flight Controls

Shape Memory Alloys (SMAs) and Polymers (SMPs)
– Ice-shedding leading edges – Camber-optimizing airfoils – Actuator-less control surfaces

Reconfigurable Flight Control Systems
– – – – Redundant hardware Adaptive software Neuroelectric control Thought control

Shape Memory Alloys & Polymers
Deforms with electricity, relaxes to remembered shape Advantages: - Optimizes airfoil for slow/fast flight - Reduces takeoff and landing distances - Extends range and endurance - Compensates for damage Status: - DARPA Morphing Aircraft Structures (MAS) and NASA/ Langley programs in progress SME: E. Havens, Cornerstone Research Group

Neuroelectric Control
Pilot‟s neuromuscular signals become control inputs Advantages – Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control – Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice – Learns patterns and responses over time – Adjusts to differences in pilots – Relearns to fly damaged aircraft in 1/6 sec Status – Successfully tested in airliner simulator SME: Dr. C. Jorgensen, NASA Ames

Thought Control
Pilot‟s EEG signals become control inputs via Blue Tooth wireless Advantages – Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control – Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice – Direct brain to computer interface Status – MIT’s “Mind Balance” w/Cerebus headset – Cyberkinetics’ “Braingate” system – Lab demo aimed at video game market SME: E. Lalor, MIT Media Lab Europe

Communication/Data Links
Film and Spray-on antennas
– Covert, lightweight, low power, broadband (2000 MHz) RF antenna – Reduces UAV weight by replacing dishes and gimbaled mountings – Eliminates blanking sectors – Provides one antenna for multiple functions (radio, data link, GPS, IFF) – Open Question: damage tolerance

Multiple Quantum Well (MQW) Retromodulators
– Covert, low power, low weight, high rate (300 Mbps) data link – Avoids frequency congestion at RF – Open Question: range limitations

Multiple Quantum Well Retromodulators
Laser activated “shutter” for opening data link Advantages – Small size: 10g for 100° sector coverage – Low power: 1W per 10 Mbps required – Covert: <100 mrad dispersion; invisible wavelength used – High data rate: 4 Mbps demonstrated; 300 Mbps possible - Avoids frequency congestion of RF spectrum – No pointing & tracking system needed on UAV Status – 4.2 Mbps demonstrated with a hovering UAV (Aug 01) – Tests to expand data rate to 10 Mbps planned SME: Dr. C. Gilbreath, Naval Research Lab

Ground Terminal (courtesy Terabeam Inc.)

Sensors
Imaging
– Motion detection/reporting without imaging (passive MTI) – Active imaging to incorporate vibration, polarimetry, and fluorescence – 3-dimensional imaging – One image, multiple target perspectives

Signals
– Full-body, conformal, broadband film/spray-on RF antennas

Chemical/Biological
– Diazoluminomelanin (DALM) “DNA on a chip” organic semiconductor – Laser induced fluorescence (LIF) real time, remote agent detection

One Image, Multiple Target Perspectives
Polarimetry – Tank tracks – Foliage penetration Vibration – Engine running/stopped – Identification by engine modulation – Aimpoint refinement Fluorescence – POL detection Multi-Spectral – Camouflage detection Imaging – Coordinates for targeting 3D Imaging – Visual identification – Coordinates for targeting
Active Imaging

Replacing the Pilot?
Defining “Autonomy” Human-Equivalent Computing
– Speed – Memory – Algorithms ( = Thinking Patterns, Experience)

Ethics, Law of War, ROE, union resistance, etc.

CREW SIZE TREND ON AIRLINERS
Crew Size Trend on Commercial Airliners
7 6
B-314 Clipper

- Flight Mechanics
L040 Constellation

Crew Size

5 4 3 2 1 0 1925

- Radio Operators
B-707 B-727

- Flight Engineers - Navigators
B-757

- Third Pilots

1945

1965

1985

2005

2025

Year of Introduction

Autonomy
Action

Knowledge

Information

Data

Computer Speed Trend

Speed Growth Rate = 100 MIPS/decade

Speed v. Memory Relationship

Memory/Speed Growth Rate = 1 MB/MIP

20 years away from humans in MIPS and MB in a PC

Computer Cost Trends

Computer Final Frontiers

Human Equivalency
“Blue Brain” project by IBM and Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL) - To simulate human brain down to molecular level - Convergence of biological data and computer capabilities

Status: To be operational in 2015
SME: C. Peck, IBM H. Markram, EPFL PCs lag mainframes by 10-15 years, so… - Expect human equivalency in a PC by 2025-30

How Fast Is Technology Adopted?
Evolution of Pilot Automation, from Demonstration to Production

Autopilot
Sperry

Doolittle
Fly-By-Wire

Mercury

Concorde

Autonomous

Condor

Global Hawk

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960 Years

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Timeframes for Emerging Technologies

Autonomic Materials Transgenetic Biopolymers Fuel Cells (MSP > 1hp/lb) Thermoelectric Generators Reconfigurable FCS (Software) SMA Airfoils Film Antennas MQW Retromodulators Human-Equivalent Autonomy

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

The Smart UA of 2025
Shape Memory Alloy Control Surfaces SMA Deicing Leading Edges

Fuel Cell Propulsion Camber-Optimizing Airfoil

Spider Silk-Based Aerostructure Embedded Skin Sensors Embedded Antenna Film Skin

Technology Driving Markets
Technology Transgenetic Polymers (“Biosteel”) Fuel Cells, Film Antennas Thought Control Data Links Autonomy (Computers) Driving Market(s) Pharmaceutical Industry (nerve agent antidote) Auto Industry Video Game Industry Inflight Entertainment, Banking Industries PC and Video Game Industries

The aviation industry is not the driver for UA-relevant technologies

UA Customer Forecast
… but even if the technology becomes available, unmanned aviation will need an economic reason to grow. What will the customer base for unmanned aviation look like in 2025 or 2050? - How many? - When? - Why? Five markets: - Airlines and Cargo Carriers (Parts 121 and 135) - General and Business Aviation (Part 91) - Military

Trend #1: IFR Traffic Forecast
2000
Military, 10 Business, 8

2025
Business, Airlines, 5 55 Gen Av, 11 Military, 5
Gen Av, 9

2050
Business, 3 Military, 2

Gen Av, 12

Cargo, 15

Cargo, 27

Cargo, 43 Airlines, 52

Airlines, 43

Based on FY2000 FAA Forecast for FY2025

Trend #2: Military UA Growth Trend
2000 100 1800 90

1510
1400 70

1200

60

50%
1000 50

800

40

600

630 23%

30

400

= 11.5% Growth/Decade
9.4% 190

20

200

10

0 2000

80 1.2%

3.9%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

FY

Percent of All Military Aircraft (16,050)

1600

Number of IFR UA Fielded

80

Trend #3: Crew Size on Airliners
Crew Size Trend on Commercial Airliners
7 6
B-314 Clipper

- Flight Mechanics
L040 Constellation B-707

Crew Size

5 4 3 2 1 0 1925

- Radio Operators - Flight Engineers
B-727

- Navigators
B-757

- Third Pilots

- Pilots by 2020?

1945

1965

1985

2005

2025

Year of Introduction

Forecast UA Growth Trend (v.1)
100 90

80

11.5% Growth/Decade
70

60

Military

50%
50

40

Cargo

33%
30

23%
Gen Av/Biz

23%
20

9.4%
Airlines

18%
10

1.2%
2000

3.9%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

FY

Percent of Aircraft in Fleet

Forecast UA Growth Trend (v.2)
100 90

17% Growth/Decade

80

70

60

Cargo

50%
50

Military

40

33% Gen Av/Biz 25%
20 30

23%

9.4% 1.2%
2000

Airlines
10

3.9%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

FY

Percent of Aircraft in Fleet

Positive Influences on UA Growth
Military General Aviation UA program trends Pathfinding efforts (S&A, standards) Long term drive to reduce crew size Long, dull, no-pax missions into Class C airport hubs Expressions of interest by airlines NASA Personal Air Vehicle Exploration (PAVE)--2009 demo FAA expectation of „mini-jets” Flashover point in commute distance

Cargo Airlines

UA GROWTH BY IFR SEGMENT
2000
Military Cargo Airlines Gen Aviation Business Total % Unmanned

2025

2050
50% x 2%= 1% 50% x 43%= 22% 25% x 43%= 11% 33% x 9%= 3% 33% x 3%= 1% 38%

Rationale
2000-2015 DoD programming Crew size trend; Fedex interest Fallout from Cargo

0.5% x 10%= 23% x 5%= 0.05% 1.2% 0% x 15%= 0% 0% x 55%= 0% 0% x 12%= 0% 0% x 8%= 0% 0.05% 10% x 27%= 2.7% 0% x 52%= 0% 0% x 11%= 0% 0% x 5%= 0% 3.9%

NASA PAVE program matures; Commuter interest Fallout from NASA PAVE

IFR TRAFFIC FORECAST WITH UA
2000
Military, 10 Business, 8

2025
Business, Airlines, 5 55 Gen Av, 11 Military, 5
Gen Av, 9

2050
Business, 3 Military, 2

Gen Av, 12

Cargo, 15

Cargo, 27

Cargo, 43 Airlines, 52

Airlines, 43

Unmanned percentages of IFR traffic: 0.05% 3.9%
Based on FAA Forecast for FY2025

38%

Summary: Technology Trends
Away from hydraulics and combustion
– Toward all-electric

Away from connected, moving parts
– Toward a single morphing part

Away from data acquisition and relay (data link intensive)
– Toward data information (processor intensive) knowledge action

Away from inorganic-based technologies
– Toward bio-engineered components

Away from manned aircraft debuting the latest aviation technologies
– Toward unmanned aircraft assuming this role

Conclusions
A number of highly innovative technologies applicable to UA will be emerging over the next 25 years The aviation market will not be driving these technologies

Cargo airlines are the “great commercial hope” for UA

Further Reading
Christensen, Clayton. The Innovator’s Dilema. Harper Collins, 1997.
FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts, FY2015, 2020 and 2025. Infinity Point web magazine, www.infinitypoint.com Kaku, Michio. Visions: How Science will Revolutionize the 21st Century. Anchor Books, 1997 Moravic, Hans. Robot. Cambridge Press, 1999. OSD Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap, 2005-2030.

Nuke Newcome 703-684-2900 www.sra.com
www.uavforum.com

NASA Morphing Video

OVERVIEW

Future of Computing
19

1 PHz

10

100 THz

10

18

10 THz

Processor Speed

10

Human Brain
1 THz 10 16

100 GHz

10

15

Solid State
10 GHz

Transition

Moletronics
10 14

1 GHz
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

10 2025

13

Calculations/Second

0.1 micron limit to solid state devices

17

Platform Requirements

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