WinQSB dalam Pengambilan Keputusan

Ani Rahmawati Ika Utami Wahyu Ningsih Nurul Hikmah Wati Rennta Christina Syafrulian 4410215035 4410215036 4410215040 4410215041 4410215044

WinQSB
WinQSB merupakan sistem interaktif untuk

membantu pengambilan keputusan yang berisi alat yang berguna untuk memecahkan berbagai jenis masalah dalam bidang riset operasi. Sistem ini terdiri dari modul-modul yang berbeda, satu untuk setiap model jenis atau masalah.

Decision Tree Analysis

Metode grafis yang memperlihatkan

cabang keputusan (decision branch) dan kejadian tak pasti (chance)

Notasi Decision Tree Analysis:

Decision Node Chance Node

Kejadian tidak diikuti kejadian lain:

terminal node (Event)

Tiap node bisa memiliki nilai payoff
+ payoff: penerimaan - payoff: biaya

Pemilihan keputusan terbaik diambil

dari nilai ekspektasi tertinggi Decision Tree Analysis

Decision Analysis
Management decides to categorize the condition of the market (i.e. the

level of demand) as either strong (S) or weak (W). The following table presents the payoff table and management's best estimate of the probability of a strong or weak market. The payoffs in the body are the net profits measured in millions of dollars. They were generated by

carefully calculating the sales, revenues, and costs associated with

each decision-state of nature combination. Payoffs are in million dollars.

Decision Analysis

 Run the program module for "Decision Analysis" of

WinQSB. Select "New problem" from the pull down menu of "File" in the menu bar. Make the entries as in the Display 1.

 Change the name of nodes to fit this problem. You can do so by

selecting each cell and typing in. Then enter the problem data as in the Display 2. Save the problem.

 Select the "Solve and Analysis" option in the menu bar. The

software will solve the problem and provides a detailed solution as in Display 3.

 You can select one more options, decision tree graph, from the pull

down menu of "Results" in the menu bar. Notice that if you select decision tree, a window (Decision Tree Setup) will appear that provides you options for how you would like the tree to look like. Make sure you play around with it for different configurations. Then Display 4 will appear and you can print it out.

Markov Process
Definisi 1:

Sebuah proses stokastik adalah urutan peristiwa dimana hasil pada setiap tahap tergantung pada beberapa kemungkinan.
Definisi 2:

Sebuah proses Markov adalah proses stokastik dengan sifat sebagai berikut: 1. Jumlah hasil yang mungkin terbatas. 2. Hasil pada setiap tahap hanya bergantung pada hasil dari tahap sebelumnya. 3. Probabilitas yang konstan sepanjang waktu.

Markov Process
Consider two stocks. Stock 1 always sells for $10 or $20. If stock

1 is selling for $10 today, there is a .80 chance that it will sell for $10 tomorrow. If it is selling for $20 today, there is a .90 chance that it will sell for $20 tomorrow. Stock 2 always sells for $10 or $25. If stock 2 sells today for $10, there is a .90 chance that it will sell tomorrow for $10. If it sells today for $25, there is a .85 chance that it will sell tomorrow for $25. On the average, which stock will sell for a higher price? Find and interpret all mean first passage times.