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Tradeoff Jangka Pendek antara Pengangguran dan Inflasi

Asistensi Ayu

Pengangguran dan Inflasi

Angka Pengangguran Alamiah dipengaruhi oleh: Minimum-wage laws, the market power of unions, the role of efficiency wages, and the effectiveness of job search

Angka Inflasi dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar yang ditentukan oleh Bank Sentral
Dalam jangka pendek terjadi tradeoff antara pengangguran dan inflasi Phillip Curve

Figure 1 The Phillips Curve

Inflation Rate (percent per year) 6 B

A Phillips curve

Unemployment Rate (percent)


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Phillip Curve

Menggambarkan hubungan jangka pendek antara pengangguran dan inflasi yang muncul karena adanya perubahan pada Agregate Demand. Ketika pemerintah ekspansi AD, maka tingkat pengangguran akan turun, namun inflasi akan meningkat Ketika pemerintah kontraksi AD, maka tingkat inflasi akan turun namun pengangguran akan meningkat

Figure 2 How the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply

(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Price Level Short-run aggregate supply B A High aggregate demand Low aggregate demand Inflation Rate (percent per year) 6

(b) The Phillips Curve

106 102

A 2 Phillips curve

7,500 8,000 (unemployment (unemployment is 7%) is 4%)

Quantity of Output

4 (output is 8,000)

Unemployment 7 (output is Rate (percent) 7,500)

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Long-run Phillip Curve

Pada tahun1960an, Friedman dan Phelps menyimpulkan bahwa inflasi dan pengangguran tidak berhubungan di jangka panjang. Sehingga di jangka panjang kurva phillip curve vertikal pada titik natural rate of unemployment. Kebijakan moneter akan efektif di jangka pendek, namun tidak di jangka panjang.

Figure 3 The Long-Run Phillips Curve

Inflation Rate

Long-run Phillips curve B

1. When the Fed increases the growth rate of the money supply, the rate of inflation increases . . .

High inflation

Low inflation

2. . . . but unemployment remains at its natural rate in the long run.

Natural rate of unemployment

Unemployment Rate

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Figure 4 How the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply

(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply

(b) The Phillips Curve Long-run Phillips curve 3. . . . and increases the inflation rate . . . B

Price Level

P2 2. . . . raises the price P level . . .

Long-run aggregate supply 1. An increase in the money supply increases aggregate B demand . . . A AD2 Aggregate demand, AD

Inflation Rate

Natural rate of output

Quantity of Output

Natural rate of unemployment

Unemployment Rate

4. . . . but leaves output and unemployment at their natural rates.

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Ekspektasi dan Short-run Phillip Curve

Expected inflation measures how much people expect the overall price level to change In the long run, expected inflation adjusts to changes in actual inflation. The Feds ability to create unexpected inflation exists only in the short run.

Once people anticipate inflation, the only way to get unemployment below the natural rate is for actual inflation to be above the anticipated rate.

Expectations dan Short-Run Phillips Curve

Unemployment Rate =
Expected Natural rate of unemployment - a Actual inflation inflation

This equation relates the unemployment rate to the natural rate of unemployment, actual inflation, and expected inflation.

Figure 5 How Expected Inflation Shifts the ShortRun Phillips Curve


2. . . . but in the long run, expected inflation rises, and the short-run Phillips curve shifts to the right.
Long-run Phillips curve

Inflation Rate

C Short-run Phillips curve with high expected inflation

A
1. Expansionary policy moves the economy up along the short-run Phillips curve . . . 0

Short-run Phillips curve with low expected inflation Unemployment Rate


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Natural rate of unemployment

Figure 10 Disinflationary Monetary Policy in the Short Run and the Long Run
1. Contractionary policy moves the economy down along the short-run Phillips curve . . .

Inflation Rate A

Long-run Phillips curve

Short-run Phillips curve with high expected inflation C

B Short-run Phillips curve with low expected inflation

Natural rate of unemployment

Unemployment 2. . . . but in the long run, expected Rate inflation falls, and the short-run Phillips curve shifts to the left.
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Ekspektasi dan Short-run Phillip Curve

The short-run Phillips curve can shift due to changes in expectations. The short-run Phillips curve also shifts because of shocks to aggregate supply.

Major adverse changes in aggregate supply can worsen the short-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation. An adverse supply shock gives policymakers a less favorable tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.

Figure 8 An Adverse Shock to Aggregate Supply

(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Price Level AS2 Inflation Rate

(b) The Phillips Curve 4. . . . giving policymakers a less favorable tradeoff between unemployment and inflation. B A PC2

Aggregate supply, AS

P2

B A

3. . . . and raises the price level . . .

1. An adverse shift in aggregate supply . . . Aggregate demand

Phillips curve, P C 0 Unemployment Rate

Y2

Y 2. . . . lowers output . . .

Quantity of Output

Copyright 2004 South-Western

THE COST OF REDUCING INFLATION

To reduce inflation, an economy must endure a period of high unemployment and low output. When the Fed combats inflation, the economy moves down the short-run Phillips curve. The economy experiences lower inflation but at the cost of higher unemployment.

THE COST OF REDUCING INFLATION

Sacrifice Ratio Mengukur berapa persen output tahunan yang dikorbankan untuk mengurangi tingkat inflasi sebesar 1 persen. Misalnya, Untuk mengurangi inflasi dari 10% sampai 4% dengan output tahunan sebesar 30 %, berapa persen output yang harus dikorbankan? Untuk mengurangi inflasi sebesar 6% maka membutuhkan sacrifice ratio sebesar 5 persen.

Rational Expectations and the Possibility of Costless Disinflation

The theory of rational expectations suggests that people optimally use all the information they have, including information about government policies, when forecasting the future. Expected inflation explains why there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in the short run but not in the long run. How quickly the short-run tradeoff disappears depends on how quickly expectations adjust. The theory of rational expectations suggests that the sacrifice-ratio could be much smaller than estimated.