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Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Hypothesis Testing

2

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Hypothesis Tests

Another procedure to draw inferences about

population parameters

Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Type I and Type II Errors

Population Mean: o Known

Population Mean: o Unknown

3

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Hypothesis testing can be used to determine whether

a statement about the value of a population parameter

should or should not be rejected.

The null hypothesis, denoted by H

0

, is a tentative

assumption about a population parameter. It often

relects the status quo.

The alternative hypothesis, denoted by H

a

, is the

opposite of what is stated in the null hypothesis.

The alternative hypothesis is what the test is

attempting to establish and reflects the decision problem.

The testing procedure uses sample data and starts

with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.

4

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Testing Research Hypotheses

Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The research hypothesis should be expressed as

the alternative hypothesis.

The conclusion that the research hypothesis is true

comes from sample data that contradict the null

hypothesis.

Has the advertising campaign resulted in increase in demand ?

5

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Testing the Validity of a Claim

Manufacturers claims are usually given the benefit

of the doubt and stated as the null hypothesis.

The conclusion that the claim is false comes from

sample data that contradict the null hypothesis.

6

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Testing in Decision-Making Situations

Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses

A decision maker might have to choose between

two courses of action, one associated with the null

hypothesis and another associated with the

alternative hypothesis.

Example: Accepting a shipment of goods from a

supplier or returning the shipment of goods to the

supplier

7

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

One-tailed

(lower-tail)

One-tailed

(upper-tail)

Two-tailed

0 0

: H >

0

:

a

H <

0 0

: H s

0

:

a

H >

0 0

: H =

0

:

a

H =

Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative

Hypotheses about a Population Mean

The equality part of the hypotheses always appears

in the null hypothesis.

In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a

population mean must take one of the following

three forms (where

0

is the hypothesized value of

the population mean).

8

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Example: Mysore EMS

Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Operating in a multiple hospital system with

approximately 20 mobile medical units, the service goal

is to respond to medical emergencies with a mean time of

12 minutes or less.

9

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

The director of medical services wants to formulate

a hypothesis test that could use a sample of emergency

response times to determine whether or not the

service goal of 12 minutes or less is being achieved.

Example: Mysore EMS

Null and Alternative Hypotheses

10

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The emergency service is meeting

the response goal; no follow-up

action is necessary.

The emergency service is not

meeting the response goal;

appropriate follow-up action is

necessary.

H

0

: < 12

H

a

: > 12

where: = mean response time for the population

of medical emergency requests

11

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Type I Error

Because hypothesis tests are based on sample data,

we must allow for the possibility of errors.

A Type I error is rejecting H

0

when it is true.

The probability of making a Type I error when the

null hypothesis is true as an equality is called the

level of significance.

Applications of hypothesis testing that only control

the Type I error are often called significance tests.

12

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Type II Error

A Type II error is accepting H

0

when it is false.

It is difficult to control for the probability of making

a Type II error.

Statisticians avoid the risk of making a Type II

error by using do not reject H

0

and not accept H

0

.

13

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Type I and Type II Errors

Correct

Decision

Type II Error

Correct

Decision

Type I Error

Reject H

0

(Conclude > 12)

Accept H

0

(Conclude < 12)

H

0

True

( < 12)

H

0

False

( > 12)

Conclusion

Population Condition

14

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

p-Value Approach to

One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing

Reject H

0

if the p-value < o .

The p-value is the probability of observing a test

statistic at least as extreme as the one computed

by us given that the null hypothesis is true.

If the p-value is less than or equal to the level of

significance o, the value of the test statistic is in the

rejection region.

15

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

p-Value Approach

p-value

= .072

0

-z

o

=

-1.28

o = .10

z

z =

-1.46

Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:

o Known

Sampling

distribution

of z

x

n

=

o

0

/

p-Value < o ,

so reject H

0

.

16

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

p-Value Approach

p-Value

= .011

0

z

o

=

1.75

o = .04

z

z =

2.29

Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:

o Known

Sampling

distribution

of z

x

n

=

o

0

/

p-Value < o ,

so reject H

0

.

17

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

p-values

p values

< 0.01 = overwhelming evidence that alternate

hypothesis is true highly significant

0.01- 0.05 = strong evidence significant

0.05-0.10 = weak evidence - not statitstically

significant

> 0.1 = no evidence to infer alternate hyp. Is

true

18

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Critical Value Approach to

One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing

The test statistic z has a std. normal prob. distrib.

We can use the standard normal probability

distribution table to find the z-value with an area

of o in the lower (or upper) tail of the distribution.

The value of the test statistic that established the

boundary of the rejection region is called the

critical value for the test. Rejection region : range of

values such that if the test statistic falls into that range,

we reject the null hyp. in favor of the alternate hypoth.

The rejection rule is:

Lower tail: Reject H

0

if z < -z

o

Upper tail: Reject H

0

if z > z

o

19

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

o = .10

0

z

o

= 1.28

Reject H

0

Do Not Reject H

0

z

Sampling

distribution

of z

x

n

=

o

0

/

Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:

o Known

Critical Value Approach

20

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

o = .05

0

z

o

= 1.645

Reject H

0

Do Not Reject H

0

z

Sampling

distribution

of z

x

n

=

o

0

/

Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:

o Known

Critical Value Approach

21

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Steps of Hypothesis Testing

Step 1. Develop the null and alternative hypotheses.

Step 2. Specify the level of significance o.

Step 3. Collect the sample data and compute the test

statistic.

p-Value Approach

Step 4. Use the value of the test statistic to compute the

p-value.

Step 5. Reject H

0

if p-value < o.

22

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Critical Value Approach

Step 4. Use the level of significance to determine the

critical value and the rejection rule.

Step 5. Use the value of the test statistic and the rejection

rule to determine whether to reject H

0

.

Steps of Hypothesis Testing

23

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Example: Mysore EMS

The EMS director wants to perform a hypothesis test, with a

.05 level of significance, to determine whether the service

goal of 12 minutes or less is being achieved.

The response times for a random sample of 40 medical

emergencies were tabulated. The sample mean

is 13.25 minutes. The population standard deviation is

believed to be 3.2 minutes.

One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:

o Known

24

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

1. Develop the hypotheses.

2. Specify the level of significance. o = .05

H

0

: < 12

H

a

: > 12

p -Value and Critical Value Approaches

One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:

o Known

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

o

= = =

13.25 12

2.47

/ 3.2/ 40

x

z

n

25

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

5. Determine whether to reject H

0

.

We are at least 95% confident that Mysore EMS

is not meeting the response goal of 12 minutes.

p Value Approach

One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:

o Known

4. Compute the p value.

For z = 2.47, cumulative probability = .9932.

pvalue = 1 .9932 = .0068

Because pvalue = .0068 < o = .05, we reject H

0

.

26

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

p Value Approach

p-value

= .0068

0

z

o

=

1.645

o = .05

z

z =

2.47

One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:

o Known

Sampling

distribution

of z

x

n

=

o

0

/

27

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

5. Determine whether to reject H

0

.

We are at least 95% confident that Mysore EMS

is not meeting the response goal of 12 minutes.

Because 2.47 > 1.645, we reject H

0

.

Critical Value Approach

One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:

o Known

For o = .05, z

.05

= 1.645

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

Reject H

0

if z > 1.645

28

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

p-Value Approach to

Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing

The rejection rule:

Reject H

0

if the p-value < o .

Compute the p-value using the following three steps:

3. Double the tail area obtained in step 2 to obtain

the p value.

2. If z is in the upper tail (z > 0), find the area under

the standard normal curve to the right of z.

If z is in the lower tail (z < 0), find the area under

the standard normal curve to the left of z.

1. Compute the value of the test statistic z.

29

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Critical Value Approach to

Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing

The critical values will occur in both the lower and

upper tails of the standard normal curve.

The rejection rule is:

Reject H

0

if z < -z

o/2

or z > z

o/2

.

Use the standard normal probability distribution

table to find z

o/2

(the z-value with an area of o/2 in

the upper tail of the distribution).

30

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Example: Gleem Toothpaste

Two-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: o Known

Quality assurance procedures call for the continuation of

the filling process if the sample results are consistent with

the assumption that the mean filling weight for the

population of toothpaste tubes is 6 oz.; otherwise

the process will be adjusted.

The production line for Gleem toothpaste is designed to

fill tubes with a mean weight of 6 oz. Periodically, a

sample of 30 tubes will be selected in order to check the

filling process.

31

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Example: Gleem Toothpaste

Two-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: o Known

Perform a hypothesis test, at the .03 level of

significance, to help determine whether the filling

process should continue operating or be stopped and

corrected.

Assume that a sample of 30 toothpaste tubes provides a

sample mean of 6.1 oz. The population standard

deviation is believed to be 0.2 oz.

32

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

1. Determine the hypotheses.

2. Specify the level of significance.

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

o = .03

p Value and Critical Value Approaches

H

0

: = 6

H

a

: 6 =

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:

o Known

o

= = =

0

6.1 6

2.74

/ .2/ 30

x

z

n

33

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:

o Known

5. Determine whether to reject H

0

.

p Value Approach

4. Compute the p value.

For z = 2.74, cumulative probability = .9969

pvalue = 2(1 .9969) = .0062

Because pvalue = .0062 < o = .03, we reject H

0

.

We are at least 97% confident that the mean

filling weight of the toothpaste tubes is not 6 oz.

34

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:

o Known

o/2 =

.015

0

z

o/2

= 2.17

z

o/2 =

.015

p-Value Approach

-z

o/2

= -2.17

z = 2.74 z = -2.74

1/2

p -value

= .0031

1/2

p -value

= .0031

35

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Critical Value Approach

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:

o Known

5. Determine whether to reject H

0

.

We are at least 97% confident that the mean

filling weight of the toothpaste tubes is not 6 oz.

Because 2.47 > 2.17, we reject H

0

.

For o/2 = .03/2 = .015, z

.015

= 2.17

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

Reject H

0

if z < -2.17 or z > 2.17

36

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

o/2 = .015

0 2.17

Reject H

0

Do Not Reject H

0

z

Reject H

0

-2.17

Critical Value Approach

Sampling

distribution

of z

x

n

=

o

0

/

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:

o Known

o/2 = .015

37

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Confidence Interval Approach to

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean

Select a simple random sample from the population

and use the value of the sample mean to develop

the confidence interval for the population mean .

x

If the confidence interval contains the hypothesized

value

0

, do not reject H

0

. Otherwise, reject H

0

.

38

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

The 97% confidence interval for is

/ 2

6.1 2.17(.2 30) 6.1 .07924 x z

n

o

o

= =

Confidence Interval Approach to

Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean

Because the hypothesized value for the

population mean,

0

= 6, is not in this interval,

the hypothesis-testing conclusion is that the

null hypothesis, H

0

: = 6, can be rejected.

or 6.02076 to 6.17924

39

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Test Statistic

Tests About a Population Mean:

o Unknown

t

x

s n

=

0

/

This test statistic has a t distribution

with n - 1 degrees of freedom.

40

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Rejection Rule: p -Value Approach

H

0

: <

0

Reject H

0

if t > t

o

Reject H

0

if t < -t

o

Reject H

0

if t < - t

o/2

or t > t

o/2

H

0

: >

0

H

0

: =

0

Tests About a Population Mean:

o Unknown

Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach

Reject H

0

if p value < o

41

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

p -Values and the t Distribution

The format of the t distribution table provided in most

statistics textbooks does not have sufficient detail

to determine the exact p-value for a hypothesis test.

However, we can still use the t distribution table to

identify a range for the p-value.

3

rd

party add on programs to excel provide the

p-value for the t distribution.

42

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Bangalore Police periodically samples vehicle speeds

at various locations on a highway.

The sample of vehicle speeds is used to test the

hypothesis

Example: Highway Patrol

One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: o Unknown

The locations where H

0

is rejected are deemed

the best locations for trapping the vehicles.

H

0

: < 65

43

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Example: HighwayPatrol

One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: o Unknown

At Location F, a sample of 64 vehicles shows a mean

speed of 66.2 mph with a standard deviation of

4.2 mph. Use o = .05 to test the hypothesis.

44

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:

o Unknown

1. Determine the hypotheses.

2. Specify the level of significance.

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

o = .05

p Value and Critical Value Approaches

H

0

: < 65

H

a

: > 65

= = =

0

66.2 65

2.286

/ 4.2/ 64

x

t

s n

45

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:

o Unknown

p Value Approach

5. Determine whether to reject H

0

.

4. Compute the p value.

For t = 2.286, the pvalue must be less than .025

(for t = 1.998) and greater than .01 (for t = 2.387).

.01 < pvalue < .025

Because pvalue < o = .05, we reject H

0

.

We are at least 95% confident that the mean speed

of vehicles at Location F is greater than 65 mph.

46

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

Critical Value Approach

5. Determine whether to reject H

0

.

We are at least 95% confident that the mean speed

of vehicles at Location F is greater than 65 mph.

Location F is a good candidate for a trap.

Because 2.286 > 1.669, we reject H

0

.

One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:

o Unknown

For o = .05 and d.f. = 64 1 = 63, t

.05

= 1.669

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

Reject H

0

if t > 1.669

47

Slide

Rajendra Desai, XIME, 2012

o = .05

0

t

o

=

1.669

Reject H

0

Do Not Reject H

0

t

One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:

o Unknown

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