lecture

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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lecture

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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and Techniques

Lecture 3

Net Present Value (NPV)

Net present value (NPV) is the sum of the

present values of the projects future cash flows

minus the cost of the project.

Projects with positive NPVs add to shareholder

wealth; those with negative NPVs reduce

shareholder wealth.

The net present value investment decision

rule is invest in positive NPV projects and

reject negative NPV projects!

If two projects are mutually exclusive, accept

the one with higher net present value.

Net Present Value Decision Rule

The NPV rule is implemented as follows: Calculate the

present value of the expected cash flows generated by

the investment, using an appropriate discount rate, and

subtract from this present value the initial net cash outlay

for the project.

By taking into account all cash flows (and only cash

flows), the time value of money, and risk (which is

incorporated in the discount rate) NPV evaluates the

projects the same way that investors do. Therefore, it is

consistent with the objective of shareholder wealth

maximization.

The discount rate used in calculating an investments

NPV, also called cost of capital or the required rate of

return, is the minimum acceptable rate of return on

projects of similar risk. It is determined by the required

return in the market for investments of comparable risk.

Net Present Value Formula

The formula for NPV is

Net present Initial Present value of

value outlay future cash flows

where I

0

is the initial cash outlay, CF

t

is the net cash

flow in period t, k is the cost of capital for the project,

and n is the economic life of the investment.

= +

=

+

+ =

=

+

+ +

+

+

+

+ =

n

t

t

t

n

n

k

CF

I

k

CF

k

CF

k

CF

I NPV

1

0

2

2 1

0

1

1 1 1

) (

) ( ) (

Net Present Value Formula

The initial outlay should include any investment in net

working capital. Working capital refers to the money that

firm must invest in accounts receivable, inventory, and cash

to support the sales and production of its products and

services. Initial investment in working capital must be

recovered at the termination of the project.

Net cash flow is usually calculated as profit after tax, plus

depreciation and other non-cash charges, minus (plus) any

additions to (recovery of) working capital during the period,

and minus (plus) capital expenditures (sales of fixed assets)

during the period. This measure includes all project cash

inflows and outflows and ignores non-cash items.

Depreciation is added back to net income because it is a

non-cash item.

Net CF= Profit after tax + Depreciation Change in net

working capital Capital Expenditures

Net CF = (Revenues Costs Depreciation)x(1 T) +

Depreciation NWC CapEx, where T is the tax rate

Application of NPV Rule

Example:

Company ABC is considering a five year investment

project which requires an initial investment in plant and

equipment of $6 million.

The projects estimated revenue in year 1 is $8 million and

$16 million in years 2 through 5. The projects estimated

costs in year 1 are $6.9 million and $12.1 million in years 2

through 5.

At the end of year five the plant will be scrapped and sold

for $1 million.

Depreciation charges will be equal to $1 million each year.

Initial working capital requirement is $1.2 million which will

be recovered in year 5.

If the tax rate is 40% and ABCs cost of capital is 10%,

what is the NPV of the investment project?

Application of NPV Rule

I

0

(Initial outlay) = $7.2 million

This includes the investment in plant and equipment of $6 million plus $1.2

million invested in working capital.

Next estimate net cash flows

CF = (Rev. Cost Depr.)x(1 T) + Depr. NWC + Sale of plant

CF

1

= ( 8 6.9 1 )x(1 0.4) + 1 = 1.06

CF

2-4

= (16 12.1 1 )x(1 0.4) + 1 = 2.74

CF

5

= (16 12.1 1 )x(1 0.4) + 1 + 1.2 + 1 = 4.94

Net cash flow in year 5 includes also cash received from the sale of the plant

($1 million) and the recovery of net working capital ($1.2 million).

Notice that the book value of the plant at the end of year 5 is exactly $1 million

because total depreciation amount for five years was $5 million and initial

investment was $6 million. Since the plant is sold for its book value there are no

taxes associated with taxable gains or losses.

The project should be accepted since it has a positive NPV of $3.03 million

03 3

1 0 1

94 4

1 0 1

74 2

1 0 1

74 2

1 0 1

74 2

1 0 1

06 1

2 7

5 4 3 2

.

) . (

.

) . (

.

) . (

.

) . (

.

.

.

. =

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+ = NPV

Strengths and Weakness of NPV Rule

NPV rule is consistent with shareholder wealth maximization.

NPV obeys the value additivity principle. This means that

the NPV of a set of independent projects is just the sum of the

NPVs of the individual projects

Value additivity principle implies that the value of a firm equals

the sum of the values of its component parts. Consequently,

when a firm undertakes a series of projects, its value

increases by an amount equal to the sum of the NPVs of the

accepted projects.

This means that when confronted with mutually exclusive

projects, a firm should accept the one with the highest NPV as

it will make the largest contribution to shareholder wealth.

The weakness of NPV is that many managers and non-

technical people have hard time understanding the concept.

Time value of money and cost of capital are not intuitively

obvious to most people.

Finally, NPV requires computation of a proper discount rate,

which is not trivial as we will see later.

Alternative Investment Evaluation Criteria

Although NPV is the theoretically correct technique for

evaluating investments, there are other capital budgeting

methods

These methods can be divided into two broad categories:

non-discounted cash flow (non-DCF) methods and

discounted cash flow (DCF) methods

Non-DCF methods:

Payback

Accounting Rate of Return

DCF methods:

Discounted Payback

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)

Profitability Index (PI)

Payback

The payback period is the length of time

necessary to recoup the initial outlay from

net cash flows.

From the earlier example of ABC company the

initial outlay is $7.2 million (including investment

in plant and equipment and working capital).

By the end of third year the cumulative net cash

flow will be $1.06 + $2.74 + $2.74 = $6.54

million. This leaves another $7.2 - $6.54 = $0.66

million until payback. Assuming that cash flows

are spread evenly throughout the year, payback

will occur in another 0.66/2.74 = 0.24 years.

So payback period is 3.24 years.

Payback: Decision Rule

Decision rule is simple:

Projects with a payback less than a specified

cutoff period are accepted, whereas those with a

payback beyond this figure are rejected.

In our example, if ABC company has a three-

year payback requirement then the investment

project would be rejected, otherwise with a four

year cutoff period the project would be accepted.

Usually the riskier is the project the shorter is the

required payback period.

Payback: Strength and Weakness

Payback is easy to understand and simple to

apply.

However it has two major weaknesses:

It ignores the time value of money. The timing of cash

flows is of critical importance because of time value of

money. Payback assigns the same value to a dollar

received at the end of the payback period as it does to

one received in the beginning.

It ignores the cash flows beyond the payback period. In

our example the project is expected to generate $7.68

million in years 4 and 5; with a cutoff period of three

years these cash flows are ignored in evaluating the

project.

The payback method is biased against long-term

projects; if a quick payoff is not forthcoming, the

project will be rejected.

Discounted Payback Period

This is a modification of payback method which corrects one of its

weaknesses, the time value of money.

Discounted payback method is the length of time required for the

present value of cash inflows to equal the cost of initial outlay.

Again, from the example of ABC company the present values of net

cash flows are as follows:

Year CF x PV Factor = PV Cumulative PV

1 1.06 0.9091 0.96 0.96

2 2.74 0.8264 2.26 3.22

3 2.74 0.7513 2.06 5.28

4 2.74 0.6830 1.87 7.15

5 4.94 0.6209 3.07 10.22

The cumulative present value of the project at the end of year four is

$7.15 million. So the discounted cash back period is slightly over 4

years.

Again, this method ignores the cash flow in year five. If the required

cutoff period was 4 years this project would be rejected, although the

project would increase the value of ABC company by $3.03 million (its

NPV).

Accounting Rate of Return

Accounting rate of return (also known as average rate

of return or average return on book value or return

on investment) is the ratio of average after-tax profit to

average book investment.

Average book value is calculated as the average of initial

outlay (including any investment in working capital) and

the ending book value, which is initial investment less

accumulated depreciation (again including any recovery

of net working capital).

The formula is

2

value book Ending outlay Initial

n

t year in profit tax - After

return of rate Accounting

n

1 t

+

=

=

Accounting Rate of Return

After-tax profit can be calculated as

(Revenues Costs Depreciation)x(1 T)

In our example of ABC company:

After-tax profit in year 1 =

= (8 6.9 1)x(1 0.4) = $0.06 million

After-tax profits in years 2 through 5 =

= (16 12.1 1)x(1 0.4) = $1.74 million

Initial outlay (including working capital) = $7.2 million

Ending book value = $2.2 million (book value of the

plant of $1 million plus recovery of working capital of

$1.2 million)

% . .

) . . (

) . . (

9 29 299 0

2

2 2 2 7

5

74 1 4 06 0

or return of rate Accounting =

+

+

=

Accounting Rate of Return: Strengths and

Weakness

To apply this method a firm must specify a target rate of

return. Investments yielding a return greater than this

standard are accepted, whereas those falling below it

would be rejected.

The project in our example would be accepted if ABCs

target rate of return was less than 29.9%.

This method is simple to apply, but

It ignores the time value if money. It treats income derived in

year 1 the same as it treats income in year 5, though earlier

income is more valuable than later one.

It is based on accounting income instead of cash flow. Investors

value only cash provided by companies; accounting income not

associated with cash flows cannot be spent (consumed) and

therefore is of no value to investors.

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

Internal rate of return (IRR) is the discount rate that

sets the present value of the project cash flows equal to

the initial investment outlay. In other words IRR is the

discount rate that sets NPV equal to zero.

IRR is the rate of return earned on money committed to

a capital investment and measures the profitability of the

investment.

It is calculated as the rate of return k for which

In our example of ABC company IRR is calculated as

=

=

+

+ =

n

t

t

t

k

CF

I NPV

1

0

0

1 ) (

% .

) (

.

) (

.

) (

.

) (

. .

. 4 22 0

1

94 4

1

74 2

1

74 2

1

74 2

1

06 1

2 7

5 4 3 2

= =

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+ = k

k k k k k

NPV

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30%

Discount rate

N

e

t

p

r

e

s

e

n

t

v

a

l

u

e

(

$

m

i

l

l

i

o

n

s

)

NPV Profile for ABCs Project

Net present value profile is the relationship between

the NPV of a project and the discount rate used to

calculate the NPV.

Decision Rule for Using IRR and its

Strength

If the IRR exceeds the cost of capital for the project, the

firm should undertake the project; otherwise the project

should be rejected.

The rationale for this rule is that any project yielding

more than its cost of capital will have a positive net

present value.

In our example ABC company should invest in its project

if the cost of capital is less than 22.4%.

The strength of IRR method is that many firms prefer

IRR because managers visualize and understand more

easily the concept of a rate of return than they do the

concept of a sum of discounted dollars.

IRR: Weaknesses

1. Lending or Borrowing?

IRR does not differentiate between lending- and

borrowing-type transactions.

With some borrowing-type transactions (where initial

outlay is positive while future cash flows are

negative) the NPV of the project is increasing as the

discount rate increasing.

This is contrary to the normal relationship between

NPV and discount rate.

Project CF

0

CF

1

IRR NPV (k = 10%)

A (lending) -100 +150 50% $36.36

B (borrowing) +100 -150 50% -$36.36

IRR: Weaknesses

2. Multiple rates of return.

When an investment has an initial cash outflow, a series of

positive cash inflows, and then at least one additional cash

outflow (negative cash flow), then there may be more than one

IRR!

The number of solutions may be as great as the number of sign

reversals in the stream of cash flows.

Example: The following project has three IRRs

Year 0 1 2 3 .

Cash flow -$200 +$1,200 -$2,200 +$1,200

%

) (

,

) (

, ,

100 0

1 1

200 1

1 1

200 2

1 1

200 1

200

2

3 2

2

= =

+

+

+

+

+ = IRR NPV

%

) (

,

) (

, ,

0 0

0 1

200 1

0 1

200 2

0 1

200 1

200

1

3 2

1

= =

+

+

+

+

+ = IRR NPV

%

) (

,

) (

, ,

200 0

2 1

200 1

2 1

200 2

2 1

200 1

200

3

3 2

3

= =

+

+

+

+

+ = IRR NPV

IRR: Multiple Rates of Return

NPV Profile of Previous Example: Multiple IRRs

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 200% 240% 280%

Discount Rate

N

e

t

p

r

e

s

e

n

t

v

a

l

u

e

(

$

)

IRR: Weaknesses

3. Mutually exclusive projects.

In the case of mutually exclusive projects when the firm has to

choose either one project or another, NPV and IRR can favor

conflicting projects.

Example: Consider the following two projects:

Cash Flow for Project

Year A B .

0 -1,000 -1,000

1 800 100

2 300 400

3 200 500

4 100 800

NPV (k = 17%) $81.2 $116.8

IRR 22.99% 21.46%

NPV and IRR give conflicting results when discount rate is less

than the crossover rate - rate at which NPVs of mutually

exclusive projects are equal. Crossover rate in this example is

19.78%.

NPV and IRR are most likely to give conflicting results when

the mutually exclusive projects are substantially different (i) in

the timing of cash flows or (ii) in scale.

Crossover rate for Projects A and B

NPV Profiles of Projects A and B, and Crossover Rate

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30%

Discount rate

N

e

t

p

r

e

s

e

n

t

v

a

l

u

e

(

$

)

Project A

Project B

.

Crossover

rate

IRR: Weaknesses

3(i). Timing of Cash Flows

The conflict in the IRR and NPV rankings of projects A

and B arises because of differences in the timing of their

cash flows, with most of As cash flows arriving in the

early years and most of Bs cash flows arriving in the

later years.

The reason for conflicting rankings is that IRR implicitly

assumes that intermediate cash flows occurring during

the life of the project can be reinvested at a rate equal to

IRR, whereas NPV implicitly assumes a reinvestment

rate equal to the projects cost of capital.

In such cases always trust NPV as it more realistically

represents the opportunity cost of funds.

IRR: Weaknesses

3 (ii). Scale Differences

Difference in the scale of projects (or difference in the

amount of initial investment) can lead to conflicting

ranking of projects.

Example: Consider the following two projects:

Cash Flow for Project

Year X Y .

0 -100 -1,000

1 140 1,250

NPV (k = 15%) $21.8 $87.0

IRR 40% 25%

NPV and IRR rules yield conflicting results. This is

because NPV takes into account the size differences in

initial investment while IRR does not.

NPV rule in this case is correct, assuming there is no

capital rationing.

Modified IRR (MIRR)

Modified IRR solves some of the weaknesses associated

with IRR.

MIRR is a discount rate at which the present value of a

projects annual cash outflows is equal the present value

of its terminal value, where the terminal value is found as

the sum of the future values of the cash inflows,

compounded at the firms opportunity cost of capital.

where COF refers to cash outflows

(negative numbers), or the cost of

the project. And CIF refers to cash

inflows (positive numbers).

( )

t

MIRR

in FV

out PV

+

=

1

life) s project' the of end at the flows of ( Value Terminal

flows

( )

( )

( )

n

n

t

t n

t

n

t

t

t

MIRR

r CIF

r

COF

+

+

=

+

=

1

1

1

0

0

Modified IRR: Calculation

Lets go back to our old example of multiple IRRs and assume that the

cost of capital is 10%.

Example: The following project has three IRRs.

Year 0 1 2 3 .

Cash flow -$200 +$1,200 -$2,200 +$1,200

Present value at time 0 of all cash outflows is:

200 2,200/(1.10)

2

= 2,018.18

Future value (at the end of projects life at time 3) of all cash inflows is:

+1,200(1.10)

2

+ 1,200 = +2,652

We have separated all negative cash flows at time 0, and all positive

cash flows at time 3.

Year 0 1 2 3 .

Cash flow -$2,018.18 +$2,652

The MIRR for this project is found as:

MIRR = 0.0953 or 9.53% (we have only one IRR here).

( )

3

1

652 , 2

18 . 018 , 2 0

MIRR +

+ =

Modified IRR: Strengths and

Weaknesses

Advantages of MIRR over IRR are that it:

Solves the problem with borrowing-type projects (by

switching the places of negative and positive cash

flows).

Solves the problem of multiple IRRs (by guaranteeing

only one cash flow sign reversal).

Solves the problem with mutually exclusive projects

with differences in the timing of cash flows (by

assuming intermediate cash flows are reinvested at

the opportunity cost of capital).

But, it still gives conflicting results with mutually

exclusive projects with scale differences.

Incremental IRR

Since MIRR does not work with mutually exclusive projects

with scale differences, we can use incremental IRR to make

a decision with such projects.

Incremental IRR is the IRR of incremental cash flows.

If the incremental IRR exceeds the cost of capital, the firm

should undertake the larger project; otherwise the firm

should undertake the smaller project.

Example. Assume k = 15%.

Cash Flow for Project

Year X Y Incremental (Y X) .

0 -100 -1,000 -1000 - (-100) = -900

1 140 1,250 1,250 - 140 = 1,110

NPV $21.8 $87.0 $65.2

IRR 40% 25% 23.3%

Since Incremental IRR of 23.3% > 15%, accept larger

project.

Profitability Index (PI)

Profitability Index (PI), also known as the benefit-cost ratio, is the

present value of future cash flows divided by the initial cash

investment

The profitability index for ABC companys project is $10.23/$7.2 =

1.42. In other words, this project returns a present value of $1.42 for

every $1 of the initial investment.

Decision rule: As long as profitability index exceeds 1, the project

should be accepted.

Although for a given project NPV and PI give the same accept-reject

signal, they sometimes disagree in the rank ordering of acceptable

projects when there are mutually exclusive projects and when there

is capital rationing.

0

0

0

1

1

I

I NPV

I

k

CF

PI

n

t

t

t

) ( ) ( +

=

+

=

=

Profitability Index: Mutually Exclusive

Projects

We already saw that when scale differences exist, NPV

and IRR may give conflicting signals. The same is true for

PI.

Example: Consider again our old example with following

two projects:

Cash Flow for Project

Year X Y .

0 -100 -1,000

1 140 1,250

NPV (k = 15%) $21.8 $87.

PI 1.22 1.09

Though both NPV and PI give accept decision for both

projects, they disagree about the ranking of these projects.

When there is a conflict of ranking the firm should select

the project with the higher NPV (unless there is capital

rationing)!

Profitability Index: Capital Rationing

Capital rationing is a situation when firms constrain the

size of their capital budgets. Capital rationing may be

self-imposed or externally imposed.

When constraints prevent the firm from undertaking all

acceptable projects, it must select among them the

subset of projects that gives the highest net present

value.

When all the initial outlays occur in the first period, a

simple approach using PI is as follows:

Calculate PI for each project,

Rank all projects in terms of their PIs, from the highest to the

lowest,

Starting with the project having the highest PI, go down the list

and select all projects having PI>1 until the capital budget is

exhausted.

Profitability Index: Capital Rationing

Example: A firm has a capital budget of $5,000 and the following

projects

Project Initial Outlay NPV Rank PI Rank

A 500 100 5 1.20 2

B 500 70 6 1.14 6

C 2,000 300 2 1.15 5

D 3,000 480 1 1.16 4

E 1,000 170 3 1.17 3

F 500 125 4 1.25 1

The projects selected under NPV rule are C and D with a combined

NPV of $780. Alternatively, PI selects projects F, A, E, and D with a

total NPV of $875.

NPV method does not necessarily select the best combination of

projects under capital rationing.

PI method will select the optimal combination of projects if the entire

budget can be consumed by accepting projects in descending order

of PI. Projects are usually indivisible and applying the PI approach

may lead to an underutilized budget because the next available

project might be too large. In this case PI method cannot be used.

Mutually Exclusive Projects with Different

Economic Lives

Example: Finance Department has to choose between two copying

machines. Xerox costs $1,200, will last 5 years, and will require

$300 of annual maintenance costs. Alternatively, Canon costs $750,

will last only 4 years, and annual maintenance costs are $400.

Which one should Finance Department choose?

One way to choose between these two machines is to compare the

present values (NPVs) of their costs. Assuming 8% discount rate we

have:

Year Xerox Canon

0 $1,200 $750

1 300 400

2 300 400

3 300 400

4 300 400

5 300

NPV at 8% $2,398 $2,074

It looks like Canon is more preferable since it has higher NPV. But

these two investments are not directly comparable because they

have different economic lives.

Mutually Exclusive Projects with Different

Economic Lives

One way to handle mutually exclusive investments with

unequal lives is to assume that at the expiration of the

economic life of each asset, the firm will invest in new

asset with identical characteristics. E.g., if we buy Xerox

today, we will replace it by Xerox again in 5 years. Thus

department will buy chains of Xeroxes or Canons.

Then we need to calculate equivalent annual cash flow

of using mutually exclusive assets.

Equivalent annual cash flow (EACF) of an asset is an

annuity that has the same life as the asset with present

value equal to the NPV of the asset.

It is calculated as:

EACF = NPV/Present value annuity factor

( )

(

=

n

k 1

1

1

k

1

NPV

EACF

Mutually Exclusive Projects with Different

Economic Lives

Buying a chain of Xeroxes is equivalent to paying $600 a

year, whereas a chain of Canons costs $626 a year.

Xerox is the preferred asset as its EACF is higher by $26.

The rule for comparing mutually exclusive assets with

unequal economic lives is: Compute the equivalent

annual cash flow of each asset. Select the asset with the

highest equivalent annual cash flow.

( )

600 $

08 . 0 1

1

1

08 . 0

1

398 , 2

EACF

5

Xerox

=

(

=

( )

626 $

08 . 0 1

1

1

08 . 0

1

074 , 2

EACF

4

Canon

=

(

=

Surveys of Capital Budgeting Techniques

Used in Practice

Source: J. Graham and C. Harvey, How Do CFOs Make Capital Budgeting AND

Capital Structure Decisions? Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Spring 2002

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