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Unit IIIB Conflicts of the 21st Century

Post 9/11: Bush Doctrine

Post 9/11: Bush Doctrine
• “With us or With the Terrorists ”

Post 9/11: Bush Doctrine
• “With us or With the Terrorists ” • Bush Doctrine: US Will Intervene to Stop Terrorism(ts)

Post 9/11: Bush Doctrine
• “With us or With the Terrorists ” • Bush Doctrine: US Will Intervene to Stop Terrorism(ts)

= Truman Doctrine + TERRORISM

Post 9/11: Bush Doctrine
3 Criteria for Intervention

Post 9/11: Bush Doctrine
3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists (anti-American)

Post 9/11: Bush Doctrine
3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists (anti-American) 2. Developing WMDs posing a threat to US Interests

Post 9/11: Bush Doctrine
3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists (anti-American) 2. Developing WMDs posing a threat to US Interests 3. Tyranny

Support Terrorists (anti-American)

Support Terrorists (anti-American)

Iraq

N. Korea

Libya

Iraq

N. Korea

Saudi Arabia

Developing WMDs posing a threat to US Interests

Developing WMDs posing a threat to US Interests

Tyranny

Tyranny

1st Application: Afghanistan

1st Application: Afghanistan

3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists 2. Developing WMDs 3. Tyranny

1st Application: Afghanistan

3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists √ 2. Developing WMDs 3. Tyranny

1st Application: Afghanistan

3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists √ 2. Developing WMDs 3. Tyranny √

1st Application: Afghanistan

• Lesson of Munich ? = Intervention

3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists √ 2. Developing WMDs 3. Tyranny √

1st Application: Afghanistan

• Lesson of Munich ? = Intervention

• Lesson of Vietnam?
3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists √ 2. Developing WMDs 3. Tyranny √

2nd Application: Iraq

IRAN/IRAQI WAR 1980-1988

IRAN/IRAQI WAR 1980-1988

IRAN/IRAQI WAR 1980-1988

IRAN/IRAQI WAR 1980-1988

Gulf War: 1990-1991

Gulf War: 1990-1991

Gulf War: 1990-1991

• Weapons of Mass Destruction

• Weapons of Mass Destruction • Al Qaeda & 9/11 Connection

• Weapons of Mass Destruction • Al Qaeda & 9/11 Connection • Heinous Dictator

2nd Application: Iraq

3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists 2. Developing WMDs 3. Tyranny

2nd Application: Iraq

3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists √ 2. Developing WMDs 3. Tyranny

2nd Application: Iraq

3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists √ 2. Developing WMDs √ 3. Tyranny

2nd Application: Iraq

3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists √ 2. Developing WMDs √ 3. Tyranny √

2nd Application: Iraq

3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists √ 2. Developing WMDs √ 3. Tyranny √

2nd Application: Iraq

3 Criteria for Intervention 1. Support Terrorists √ 2. Developing WMDs √ 3. Tyranny √

MARCH 2003

MAY 2003

Interim US Administration 2003-2004

Interim US Administration 2003-2004 December, 2003

Interim US Administration 2003-2004 December, 2003

Ayad Allawi Interim Government June, 2004

Free Elections January, 2005

Nouri al-Maliki

Free Elections January, 2005 New Constitution Elections December, 2005

Hussein Trial & Execution (12/06)

• Insurgency

• Insurgency
• Al Qaeda
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi

• Insurgency
• Al Qaeda

• Shia

Muqtada al-Sadr

• Insurgency
• Al Qaeda

• Shia
• Kurds

Is Iraq Viable?

2010 Election

Is Iraq Viable?

Is Iraq Viable?

Is Iraq Viable?

Iraq—Worth it?

2007: The Surge

2007: The Surge
• 20,000 Additional Troops

2007: The Surge
• 20,000 Additional Troops • Sunni Awakening

2007: The Surge
• 20,000 Additional Troops • Sunni Awakening • Declining Violence

2007: The Surge
• 20,000 Additional Troops • Sunni Awakening • Declining Violence

2008: Status of Forces Agreement
• US End to Military Operations, 2010 • US Withdrawal by end, 2011 • US/Iraq security Cooperation through 2012

2008: Status of Forces Agreement
• US End to Military Operations, 2010 • US Withdrawal by end, 2011 • US/Iraq security Cooperation through 2012

• End Iraq as Forward Base

2008: Status of Forces Agreement

• End Iraq as Forward Base

2008: Status of Forces Agreement

• End Iraq as Forward Base

2008: Status of Forces Agreement

• End Iraq as Forward Base

2008: Status of Forces Agreement

• End Iraq as Forward Base

2008: Status of Forces Agreement

• End Iraq as Forward Base

3rd Application: Iran?

Ayatollah Khamenei

Pres. Ahmadinejad

3rd Application: Iran?

=
• Lesson of MAD: IRAN?

Saddam = Hitler
Ayatollah Khamenei

= Containment?
Pres. Ahmadinejad

3rd Application: Iran?

Ayatollah Khamenei

Pres. Ahmadinejad

3rd Application: Iran?

Ayatollah Khamenei

• Lesson of Munich: IRAN?

Pres. Ahmadinejad

3rd Application: Iran?

Ayatollah Khamenei

2007: Appointed Commander U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)

Admiral William Fallon

• Lesson of Munich: IRAN?

Pres. Ahmadinejad

PROCONSULS

The Origins of the American Military Coup of 2012
CHARLES J. DUNLAP, JR. From Parameters, Winter 1992-93, pp. 2-20. Go to Cumulative Article Index. The letter that follows takes us on a darkly imagined excursion into the future. A military coup has taken place in the United States-the year is 2012--and General Thomas E. T. Brutus, Commanderin-Chief of the Unified Armed Forces of the United States, now occupies the White House as permanent Military Plenipotentiary. His position has been ratified by a national referendum, though scattered disorders still prevail and arrests for acts of sedition are underway. A senior retired officer of the Unified Armed Forces, known here simply as Prisoner 222305759, is one of those arrested, having been convicted by court-martial for opposing the coup. Prior to his execution, he is able to smuggle out of prison a letter to an old War College classmate discussing the "Origins of the American Military Coup of 2012." In it, he argues that the coup was the outgrowth of trends visible as far back a s 1992. These trends were the massive diversion of military forces to civilian uses, the monolithic unification of the armed forces, and the insularity of the military community. His letter survives and is here presented verbatim.

PROCONSULS

The Origins of the American Military Coup of 2012
CHARLES J. DUNLAP, JR. From Parameters, Winter 1992-93, pp. 2-20. Go to Cumulative Article Index. The letter that follows takes us on a darkly imagined excursion into the future. A military coup has taken place in the United States-the year is 2012--and General Thomas E. T. Brutus, Commanderin-Chief of the Unified Armed Forces of the United States, now occupies the White House as permanent Military Plenipotentiary. His position has been ratified by a national referendum, though scattered disorders still prevail and arrests for acts of sedition are underway. A senior retired officer of the Unified Armed Forces, known here simply as Prisoner 222305759, is one of those arrested, having been convicted by court-martial for opposing the coup. Prior to his execution, he is able to smuggle out of prison a letter to an old War College classmate discussing the "Origins of the American Military Coup of 2012." In it, he argues that the coup was the outgrowth of trends visible as far back a s 1992. These trends were the massive diversion of military forces to civilian uses, the monolithic unification of the armed forces, and the insularity of the military community. His letter survives and is here presented verbatim.

PROCONSULS

3rd Application: Iran?

Ayatollah Khamenei

2007: Appointed Commander U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)

Admiral William Fallon

• Lesson of Munich: IRAN?

Pres. Ahmadinejad

3rd Application: Iran?

Ayatollah Khamenei

March, 2008: Resigns
Admiral William Fallon

• Lesson of Munich: IRAN?

Pres. Ahmadinejad

Foreign Policy Challenges: Global

Ayatollah Khamenei

= Containment?
• Lesson of Munich: IRAN?
Pres. Ahmadinejad

Foreign Policy Challenges: Global

• Post Iraq/Afghan Soft Power > Hard Power • Lesson of Vietnam: Détente?

Iran