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Demography 1

Dr Paul T Francis, MD Prof. Com Med College of Medicine, Zawia

Demography is the scientific study of human population Demography studies 3 aspects of a population
Changes in population size Composition of population Distribution of population in place

Demographic processes
The demographic processes that determine the size, composition and distribution of a population are:
Fertility Mortality Marriage Migration Social mobility

Sources of Demographic information

Population census Vital statistics Migration Before we plan any health intervention or programmes for the community we should know the size and composition of the community We also need to know the changes that will occur to the size and composition to the population

Demographic cycle
Population of all countries go through the following stages
1st stage High stationary 2nd stage Early expanding 3rd stage Late expanding 4th stage Low stationary 5th stage Declining

Demographic cycle
High stationary
There is high birth rate and high death rate so the population remains stationary. There is no increase or decrease in the population

Demographic cycle
Early expanding
Death rate begins to decline while birth rate does not change Many countries in Asia and Africa are in this stage

Demographic cycle
Late expanding
The death rate declines further and the birth rate also starts to decline. Since the death rate is lower than birth rate the population keeps increasing Some developing countries are in this stage Libya is in this stage

Demographic cycle
Low stationary
In this stage the death rate and the birth rate are both low So the population becomes stationary again There is no increase or decrease in the population

Demographic cycle
In this stage the birth rate is lower than the death rate So the population starts to decline

World population
Total population of the world about 2000 years ago was 250 million In 1800 the world population became 1000 million (1 billion) In 1987 the world population became 5 billion In 1999 the world population became 6 billion Expected to become 8 billion by 2025

World population
About th of world population lives in the developing countries China and India are the two most populous countries in the world The world population growth rate was at the peak in 1970 About 95% of the population growth is occurring in the developing countries

Life expectancy
Life expectancy is the average number of years which a person of a particular age may expect to live It is one of the best indicators of a countrys level of development and overall health status The life expectancy of people all over the world has been increasing

Life expectancy at birth

In most countries the life expectancy of women is more than that of men Life expectancy in Japan is the highest 86 79 Life expectancy in USA is 80 76 Life expectancy in Libya is 75 70

Fertility Is the actual bearing of children by a woman The reproductive age of a woman is between 15 45 years Some factors affecting fertility are:
Age at marriage Duration of married life Spacing of children Education Socioeconomic status

Birth rate =
Number of live births during the year X 1000

Estimated mid-year population

Growth rate = Crude birth rate Crude death rate

Demographic indicators of Libya

Crude Birth rate (1978) = 47.0 Crude Death rate (1978) = 5.1 Growth rate is 42/1000 = 4.2% Total fertility rate (per woman) = 2.8

Population structure of Libya

< 5 = 20.7% <15 = 51.4% <20 = 59.6% Sex ratio of Libya is 940 women for 1000 men Urban population 60% and rural 40% of total population

Study of population is important for promoting health of population The size and composition of the population will help us plan for health interventions Study of human population will help us plan for the future health needs of a community.