SECURITY IN THE POST-COLD WAR ERA

MSE 193/293 Stanford University 12 October, 2005 William J. Perry

REFERENCES—LECTURE E
• “Putin’s Russia”, Lilia Shevtsova; Foreword and Prologue • “Nuclear Terrorism”, Graham Allison; Introduction and Chpt. 3 • “Preventive Defense” (Chapter 5), Carter and Perry • “Our Last Best Chance”, NTI docudrama

TWO MAJOR SECURITY ISSUES POST-COLD WAR

• LOOSE NUKES • CATASTROPHIC TERRORISM

LOOSE NUKES in EARLY 90s
• • • • • • Cold War over, but still 20,000 nukes SU dissolved; nukes in 4 countries These countries in some turbulence Congress passed Nunn-Lugar in ’92 I made its implementation top priority First step--denuclearizing former SSRs

ASYMMETRIC WARFARE
(Life is full of unintended consequences)

• CYBERWARFARE---attack computers and commo links • INSURGENCY WARFARE • TERRORISM • WEAPONS of MASS DESTRUCTION

PROB. OF FUTURE ATTACKS
• • • • • INTENT CAPABILITY RESOURCES DEDICATION OF FOLLOWERS TRACK RECORD

The “WISDOM” of OSAMA BIN LADEN “SINCE I WAS A BOY I HAVE BEEN AT WAR WITH AND HATED AMERICANS”
“TO KILL AMERICANS IS AN INDIVIDUAL DUTY FOR EVERY MUSLIM…” “THERE ARE NO INNOCENT AMERICANS” ---------------------------------------------------------TOM FRIEDMAN: “WHAT PART OF THAT DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?”

AL QAEDA CAPABILITY
• LARGE FOLLOWING • WELL ORGANIZED • INTERNATIONAL WELL-FINANCED MARTYR IDEOLOGY

TRACK RECORD AL QAEDA & ISLAMIC JIHAD
• • • • • • • Assassination of Sadat Bombing of Marines in Lebanon Somalia Khobar Towers Bombing of USS Cole African Embassies WTC and Pentagon---9-11

COMPONENTS OF NATIONAL PROTECTION EFFORT
• DIPLOMACY--Stop Nuclear Proliferation • MILITARY—attack Terrorist bases/Host Nations • LAW ENFORCEMENT—Terrorist cells • INTELLIGENCE—Detect terrorist plans • TREASURY---Bottle up terrorist finances • TRANSPORTATION—Improve travel safety • Center for Disease Control---Vaccines, Antibiotics, Training of First Responders

WMD TERRORISM IS REAL THREAT
• Al Qaeda and other terror groups remain a deadly threat • Al Qaeda vows to kill millions of Americans to avenge Islamic world from imagined offenses • Bin Laden has told his followers that obtaining WMD is a “religious duty” • If they get them, they will use them • No viable defense if they get them

ACTIONS TAKEN ON WMD TERRORISM
• • • • NMD---IRRELEVANT TO TERROR THREAT INVASION OF IRAQ—NO WMD FOUND RENUNCIATION OF WMD BY LIBYA---SUCCESS EXPOSURE OF A.Q. KAHN NETWORK--PARTIAL SUCCESS • PROLIFERATION SECURITY INITIATIVE--USEFUL, BUT WILL NOT STOP DETERMINED PROLIFERATOR

FAILURES TO ACT ON WMD TERRORISM
• NORTH KOREA HAS QUADRUPLED ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL; NOW MUCH HARDER TO TURN BACK • IRAN HAS RETAINED ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM; AMBITIONS NOW MORE ENTRENCHED • DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO STRENGTHEN NPT HAVE NOT PRODUCED ANY RESULTS • EFFORTS TO SECURE “LOOSE NUKES” HAVE NOT INCREASED SINCE 9-11

REVIEW

HISTORY OF MILITARY TECHNOLOGY
• • • • • • • PREHISTORIC TIMES--CIVIL WAR CIVIL WAR TO WORLD WAR I WORLD WAR II COLD WAR---NUCLEAR TECH. COLD WAR---OFFSET STRATEGY POST-COLD WAR (RMA) POST-COLD WAR (DEALING w/NUKES

TECH. INNOVATIONS FIRST USED IN CIVIL WAR
• • • • • • • • • MILITARY TELEGRAPH MILITARY RAILROADS REPEATING RIFLES RIFLED ARTILLERY GATLING GUN TELESCOPIC SIGHTS LAND MINES IRONCLAD WARSHIPS SUBMARINES

COST OF THE CIVIL WAR
• • • • •

3,000,000 SOLDIERS---10% of POPULATION 600,000 DIED ---20% OF ALL WHO FOUGHT MORE DEATHS THAN ALL US WARS 2/3 OF THE DEATHS WERE FROM DISEASE (SCURVY, DYSENTERY, MALARIA, TYPHOID)

RESULTS OF CIVIL WAR
• • • • • • END OF SLAVERY DOWNFALL OF PLANTER ARISTOCRACY WATERSHED--NEW POLIT. / ECON. ORDER BEGINNING--BIG INDUSTRY/ BIG GOVT. ESTABLISH US--WORLD MILITARY POWER DEVELOP NEW MILITARY TECH. / TACTICS

EVOLUTION OF MILITARY TECHNOLOGY
5000 BC 3500 BC 1500 BC Clubs/ Swords/ Stones Spears Bows/ arrows Sailing Ships Eyeballs Messengers Feet Horses Horse Drawn Wagons Sailing Ships Steam Trains Steamships Cavalry Pigeons/Flags 0 1000 1600 1800 1850 1900

Pistols Crossbow/ Longbow Catapults Cannon Muskets

Revolvers

Carbines Machine Gun Cannon Steamships Ironclads Submarines Cavalry Balloons Telegraph

WWII---THE WAR OF MACHINES AMERICAN PRODUCTION (figures
rounded) Military Aircraft Ships Tanks Jeeps 300,000 7,000 90,000 600,000

Source: “Freedom From Fear”, David Kennedy

EVOLUTION OF MILITARY TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION OF FIREPOWER
1850 BC 3500 BC 1500 BC 5000 Revolver Carbine Machine Gun Cannon Ironclads Submarine Cavalry Balloon Telegraph 0 19001000 1600 1800 1850 1900 1950

Machine Gun Barrage Fire Tank Tank Aircraft Carrier Submarine Bomber/Fighter

Submarine Scout Airplane Telegraph Wireless

Radio Encrypt/Decrypt Radar Computer Aerial Recon

World War 2
Date
December 1941 1942 War Goes Badly 1943 Tide Turns 1944 Heading For Victory

Pacific Theater
Pearl Harbor Japanese Army Takes Philippines;Midway turning pt. Island hopping Iwo Jima Philippines Retaken

European Theater
Germany Declares War on US German Subs Terrorize Atlantic German Subs Defeated Germans Defeated in Africa D-DAY! V-1; V-2

1945 VICTORY

Okinawa (Kamikaze) Hiroshima V-J!

Battle of the Bulge Death Camps V-E!

Worldwide Fatalities
Military Deaths World War I 8,500,000 Civilian Deaths 13,000,000

World War II 19,000,000 20,000,000

“IRON CURTAIN” FALLS
Soviet Union Annexed -Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and areas of Finland, Poland, Romania, E. Germany, E.Czechoslovakia, (200,000 sq. miles; 25 million people) Soviet Union dominated - Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, East Germany, Poland, Hungary ,Czechoslovakia (400,000 sq. miles, 87 million people)

Churchill “What is to happen about Russia? …… An iron curtain is coming down upon their front. We are disarming, while Russia may keep 200 divisions” Kennan (X Paper)
Communism dedicated to destruction of capitalism---there can be no coexistence SU leader of communist nations and agent of that destruction Destruction of capitalism inevitable, but take time Push forward at every opening, but retreat when needed (recalls Russian strategy with Mongols)

Truman/Eisenhower Strategy

Containment Deterrence

Nuclear NATO

Demonstration of American Values Marshall Plan -and-

PATIENCE!!!

CW CHALLENGES OF USSR
• • • • • • Berlin blockade Korean war Berlin wall Cuban Missile crisis Nuclear arms race Space race

RESULTS-CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS (Life is full of unintended consequences)
• • • • Casto’s grip on Cuba tightened Kruschev forced out of leadership Bresznev intensifies nuclear arms race Intense competition between US and SU in missiles and space programs

• (Next 8 pictures depict missile/space race as seen in archives of SU)

1945
YIELD ACCURACY WARHEADS TOTAL W/H RANGE 1 TON 1:50 1 100 500 km

1960
10 KT 1:1,000 1 100 10,000 km

1975
300 KT 1:20,000 3 3,000 10,000 km

ALERTING VULNERABILITY

few days Pads

few hours Pads

few minutes Silos

1970-1980 MOST DANGEROUS PERIOD
Conventional forces of SU 3x those of US 3,000 Nuclear weapons on “hair trigger” alert Missile Race: “Window of vulnerability” China with a nuclear capability of unknown size US responds with “Offset Strategy”

COLD WAR OFFSET STRATEGY
•New Family of Intelligence Sensors (Smart Sensors) •New Family of Precision Guided Munitions (Smart Weapons) •New Designs to Evade Intelligence Sensors (Stealth)

1985---Gorbachev becomes SU leader: Perestroika ! Glasnost !! (Is he for real?)

1986-87---NF Treaty, START Treaty 1988---Rekyavik---eliminate all missiles? 1989---The walls come tumbling down!

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