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SECURITY IN THE

POST-COLD WAR ERA

MSE 193/293
Stanford University
12 October, 2005
William J. Perry
REFERENCES—LECTURE E
• “Putin’s Russia”, Lilia Shevtsova;
Foreword and Prologue
• “Nuclear Terrorism”, Graham Allison;
Introduction and Chpt. 3
• “Preventive Defense” (Chapter 5), Carter
and Perry
• “Our Last Best Chance”, NTI docudrama
TWO MAJOR SECURITY ISSUES
POST-COLD WAR

• LOOSE NUKES

• CATASTROPHIC TERRORISM
LOOSE NUKES in EARLY 90s

• Cold War over, but still 20,000 nukes


• SU dissolved; nukes in 4 countries
• These countries in some turbulence
• Congress passed Nunn-Lugar in ’92
• I made its implementation top priority
• First step--denuclearizing former SSRs
ASYMMETRIC WARFARE
(Life is full of unintended consequences)

• CYBERWARFARE---attack computers
and commo links

• INSURGENCY WARFARE

• TERRORISM

• WEAPONS of MASS DESTRUCTION


PROB. OF FUTURE ATTACKS

• INTENT
• CAPABILITY
• RESOURCES
• DEDICATION OF FOLLOWERS
• TRACK RECORD
The “WISDOM” of OSAMA BIN LADEN

“SINCE I WAS A BOY I HAVE BEEN AT


WAR WITH AND HATED AMERICANS”

“TO KILL AMERICANS IS AN INDIVIDUAL


DUTY FOR EVERY MUSLIM…”

“THERE ARE NO INNOCENT AMERICANS”


----------------------------------------------------------
TOM FRIEDMAN: “WHAT PART OF THAT
DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?”
AL QAEDA CAPABILITY
• LARGE FOLLOWING
• WELL ORGANIZED
• INTERNATIONAL
WELL-FINANCED
MARTYR IDEOLOGY
TRACK RECORD
AL QAEDA & ISLAMIC JIHAD
• Assassination of Sadat
• Bombing of Marines in Lebanon
• Somalia
• Khobar Towers
• Bombing of USS Cole
• African Embassies
• WTC and Pentagon---9-11
COMPONENTS OF NATIONAL
PROTECTION EFFORT

• DIPLOMACY--Stop Nuclear Proliferation


• MILITARY—attack Terrorist bases/Host
Nations
• LAW ENFORCEMENT—Terrorist cells
• INTELLIGENCE—Detect terrorist plans
• TREASURY---Bottle up terrorist finances
• TRANSPORTATION—Improve travel safety
• Center for Disease Control---Vaccines,
Antibiotics, Training of First Responders
WMD TERRORISM IS
REAL THREAT
• Al Qaeda and other terror groups
remain a deadly threat
• Al Qaeda vows to kill millions of
Americans to avenge Islamic world
from imagined offenses
• Bin Laden has told his followers that
obtaining WMD is a “religious duty”
• If they get them, they will use them
• No viable defense if they get them
ACTIONS TAKEN ON
WMD TERRORISM
• NMD---IRRELEVANT TO TERROR THREAT
• INVASION OF IRAQ—NO WMD FOUND
• RENUNCIATION OF WMD BY LIBYA---SUCCESS
• EXPOSURE OF A.Q. KAHN NETWORK---
PARTIAL SUCCESS
• PROLIFERATION SECURITY INITIATIVE---
USEFUL, BUT WILL NOT STOP DETERMINED
PROLIFERATOR
FAILURES TO ACT ON
WMD TERRORISM
• NORTH KOREA HAS QUADRUPLED ITS
NUCLEAR ARSENAL; NOW MUCH HARDER
TO TURN BACK
• IRAN HAS RETAINED ITS NUCLEAR
PROGRAM; AMBITIONS NOW MORE
ENTRENCHED
• DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO STRENGTHEN
NPT HAVE NOT PRODUCED ANY RESULTS
• EFFORTS TO SECURE “LOOSE NUKES”
HAVE NOT INCREASED SINCE 9-11
REVIEW
HISTORY OF MILITARY
TECHNOLOGY

• PREHISTORIC TIMES--CIVIL WAR


• CIVIL WAR TO WORLD WAR I
• WORLD WAR II
• COLD WAR---NUCLEAR TECH.
• COLD WAR---OFFSET STRATEGY
• POST-COLD WAR (RMA)
• POST-COLD WAR (DEALING w/NUKES
TECH. INNOVATIONS
FIRST USED IN CIVIL WAR
• MILITARY TELEGRAPH
• MILITARY RAILROADS
• REPEATING RIFLES
• RIFLED ARTILLERY
• GATLING GUN
• TELESCOPIC SIGHTS
• LAND MINES
• IRONCLAD WARSHIPS
• SUBMARINES
COST OF THE CIVIL WAR

• 3,000,000 SOLDIERS---10% of POPULATION


• 600,000 DIED ---20% OF ALL WHO FOUGHT
• MORE DEATHS THAN ALL US WARS
• 2/3 OF THE DEATHS WERE FROM DISEASE
• (SCURVY, DYSENTERY, MALARIA, TYPHOID)
RESULTS OF CIVIL WAR

• END OF SLAVERY
• DOWNFALL OF PLANTER ARISTOCRACY
• WATERSHED--NEW POLIT. / ECON. ORDER
• BEGINNING--BIG INDUSTRY/ BIG GOVT.
• ESTABLISH US--WORLD MILITARY POWER
• DEVELOP NEW MILITARY TECH. / TACTICS
EVOLUTION OF MILITARY TECHNOLOGY
5000 BC 3500 BC 1500 BC 0 1000 1600 1800 1850 1900

Clubs/ Swords/ Pistols Revolvers


Stones Spears
Bows/ Crossbow/ Muskets Carbines
arrows Longbow
Machine Gun
Catapults Cannon Cannon
Sailing Ships Steamships Ironclads
Submarines
Eyeballs Cavalry Cavalry
Messengers
Pigeons/Flags Balloons
Telegraph
Feet
Horses
Horse Drawn Wagons
Steam Trains
Sailing Ships Steamships
WWII---THE WAR OF MACHINES
AMERICAN PRODUCTION (figures
rounded)

Military Aircraft 300,000


Ships 7,000
Tanks 90,000
Jeeps 600,000

Source: “Freedom From Fear”, David Kennedy


EVOLUTION
EVOLUTION
OF MILITARY
OF FIREPOWER
TECHNOLOGY
1850
5000 BC 3500 BC 1500 BC 019001000 1600 1800 1850 1900
1950
Revolver
Carbine
Machine Gun Machine Gun
Barrage Fire
Cannon
Tank Tank
Ironclads
Aircraft Carrier
Submarine Submarine Submarine
Scout Airplane Bomber/Fighter
Cavalry
Balloon
Telegraph Telegraph
Wireless Radio
Encrypt/Decrypt
Radar
Computer
Aerial Recon
World War 2

Date Pacific Theater European Theater

December 1941 Pearl Harbor Germany Declares War on US

1942 Japanese Army Takes German Subs Terrorize Atlantic


War Goes Badly Philippines;Midway turning pt.

1943 Island hopping German Subs Defeated


Tide Turns Iwo Jima Germans Defeated in Africa

1944 Philippines Retaken D-DAY!


Heading For Victory V-1; V-2

1945 Okinawa (Kamikaze) Battle of the Bulge


Hiroshima Death Camps
VICTORY V-J! V-E!
Worldwide Fatalities

Military Civilian
Deaths Deaths

World War I 8,500,000 13,000,000


World War II 19,000,000 20,000,000
“IRON CURTAIN” FALLS
Soviet Union Annexed -Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania and areas of Finland, Poland,
Romania, E. Germany, E.Czechoslovakia,
(200,000 sq. miles; 25 million people)

Soviet Union dominated - Albania, Bulgaria,


Romania, East Germany, Poland, Hungary
,Czechoslovakia
(400,000 sq. miles, 87 million people)
Churchill

“What is to happen about Russia? ……


An iron curtain is coming down upon their front.
We are disarming, while Russia may keep 200 divisions”

Kennan (X Paper)

Communism dedicated to destruction of capitalism---there


can be no coexistence

SU leader of communist nations and agent of that


destruction

Destruction of capitalism inevitable, but take time

Push forward at every opening, but retreat when needed


(recalls Russian strategy with Mongols)
Truman/Eisenhower Strategy

Containment
Nuclear
Deterrence NATO
Demonstration of American Values

Marshall Plan

-and-

PATIENCE!!!
CW CHALLENGES OF USSR

• Berlin blockade
• Korean war
• Berlin wall
• Cuban Missile crisis
• Nuclear arms race
• Space race
RESULTS-CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS
(Life is full of unintended consequences)

• Casto’s grip on Cuba tightened


• Kruschev forced out of leadership
• Bresznev intensifies nuclear arms race
• Intense competition between US and SU in
missiles and space programs

• (Next 8 pictures depict missile/space race as


seen in archives of SU)
1945 1960 1975

YIELD 1 TON 10 KT 300 KT

ACCURACY 1:50 1:1,000 1:20,000

WARHEADS 1 1 3
TOTAL W/H 100 100 3,000

RANGE 500 km 10,000 km 10,000 km

ALERTING few days few hours few minutes

VULNERABILITY Pads Pads Silos


1970-1980
MOST DANGEROUS PERIOD
Conventional forces of SU 3x those of US

3,000 Nuclear weapons on “hair trigger” alert

Missile Race: “Window of vulnerability”

China with a nuclear capability of unknown size

US responds with “Offset Strategy”


COLD WAR OFFSET STRATEGY

•New Family of Intelligence Sensors


(Smart Sensors)

•New Family of Precision Guided Munitions


(Smart Weapons)

•New Designs to Evade Intelligence Sensors


(Stealth)
1985---Gorbachev becomes SU leader:
Perestroika !
Glasnost !!
(Is he for real?)

1986-87---NF Treaty, START Treaty


1988---Rekyavik---eliminate all missiles?
1989---The walls come tumbling down!