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AP Statistics Hamilton/Mann

Introduction
How long can you expect a AA battery to last? What proportion of college undergraduates have engaged in binge drinking? How long can you expect to spend working on your AP Statistics homework? Is caffeine dependence real? It is not practical to determine the life of all AA batteries, to ask all college undergraduates about their drinking habits, to ask every AP Statistics students how long they spend on homework or to talk to every potential caffeine dependent individual in the population.

So What Do We Do
Instead, we select a sample of individuals to represent the population, and we collect data from those individuals. We want to infer from the sample data some conclusion about the population. That is the goal of statistical inference.

We cannot be certain that our results are correct because a different sample might lead to different conclusions.

So What Do We Do (cont)
Statistical inference uses the language of probability to express the strength of our conclusions. Probability allows us to take chance variation into account and correct our judgment by calculation. In this chapter, we will learn about confidence intervals for estimating the value of a population parameter. This technique uses the ideas of sampling distributions to report what would happen if we repeated the inference method many times.

Inference
The methods of formal inference require the longrun regular behavior that probability describes. Inference is most reliable when the data are produced by a properly randomized design. When you use statistical inference, you are acting as if the data are a random sample or come from a randomized experiment. If this is not true, your conclusions may be open to challenge. Formal inference cannot remedy problems in data collection (such as voluntary response samples and uncontrolled experiments). Proceed to formal inference only when you are satisfied that the data deserve such analysis.

Inference

We will make the problems simpler to begin with. We will pretend like we know the standard deviation for the population that we are interested in, even though we do not know its mean. We will later remove this unrealistic requirement and learn how to handle situations in which there is no way we could know the standard deviation of the population.

Confidence Intervals: The Basics

Section 1 HW: 10.1, 10.2, 10.3, 10.4, 10.7, 10.8, 10.10, 10.11, 10.14, 10.15, 10.16, 10.19

An Example to Begin

Colleges and universities attempt to attract qualified students by putting out information such as average GPA, average SAT scores, class ranks, etc. At Big City University, the admissions director had a novel idea. He proposed that the school use the IQ scores of current students as a marketing tool. The school agrees to give him enough money to administer an IQ test to 50 students. He selects an SRS of 50 of the 5000 freshmen. The mean IQ score from the sample is So what can the director say about the mean score of the population of all 5000 freshmen?

What About the Example


Is the mean IQ score of all Big City University freshmen exactly 112? Probably not! The law of large numbers tells us though that the sample mean from a large SRS will be close to the unknown population mean Because we guess that is somewhere around 112. The question though is How close to 112 is likely to be? To answer this question, we ask another: How would the sample mean vary if we took many samples of 50 freshmen from this same population?

Reminder

The sampling distribution of describes how the values of vary in repeated samples. Lets recall some facts about the sampling distribution.
The mean of the sampling distribution of

is the same as the unknown mean of the entire population. The standard deviation of is given by where is the standard deviation of the population of interest. The Central Limit Theorem tells us that if our sample size is large enough (30 or more), then the sampling distribution will be close to Normal.

Reasoning of Statistical Estimation


1. 2.

3.

4.

To estimate the unknown population mean use the mean of our random sample. Although is an unbiased estimate of it will rarely be exactly equal to so our estimate has some error. In repeated samples, the values of follow (approximately) a Normal distribution with mean and standard deviation The 95 part of the 68-95-99.7 rule for Normal distributions says that in about 95% of all samples, the mean will be within two standard deviations of the population mean

Reasoning of Statistical Estimation


5.

6.

Whenever is within two standard deviations of is within two standard deviations of This happens in about 95% of all possible samples. So the unknown lies between and in about 95% of all samples. If we estimate that lies somewhere in the interval from to we would be calculating this interval using a method that captures the true in about 95% of all samples.

(cont.)

The Big Idea


The big idea is that the sampling distribution of tells us how big the error is likely to be when we use to estimate So lets return to our example of Big City University.

Big City University


Suppose that the standard deviation of IQ scores for all freshmen at Big City University is Since our sample size was 50 and population is more than 10 times our sample size,

Also, since our sample is large, the CLT tells us that our sampling distribution is close to Normal and can be approximated by So we can conclude that the would be within two standard deviations for 95% of all samples. Therefore, in 95% of samples would be within the interval

Big City University (cont.)

The interval

can be written as

There are only two possibilities:


1. The interval between 107.76 and 116.24 contains the

true 2. Our SRS was one of the few samples for which is not within 4.24 points of the true Only 5% of all samples give such inaccurate results.

We cannot know if our sample is one of the 95% for which the interval catches or whether it is one of the unlucky 5%.

Big City University (cont.)


The statement that we are 95% confident that the unknown lies between 107.76 and 116.24 is shorthand for saying, We got these numbers by a method that gives correct results 95% of the time. The interval of numbers is called a 95% confidence interval for The confidence level is 95%. Like most confidence intervals we will meet, this one has the form

The estimate is our best guess for the value of the unknown parameter. The margin of error shows how accurate we believe our guess is, based on the variability of the estimate. This is a 95% confidence interval because it catches the unknown in 95% of all possible samples.

This is the basic idea behind confidence intervals. 95% of the samples we select should allow us to create a confidence interval in which the true value of the parameter will appear!

We get to choose (or we are told) the confidence level. This level is usually 90% or higher because we want to be quite sure of our conclusions. We will use C to stand for our confidence level in decimal form. For example, a 95% confidence level corresponds to Lets see another explanation of Confidence Intervals!

This is another way of thinking of confidence intervals. Some intervals will not contain the true population parameter, but most will!

Lets Look at Some Together

10.5 and 10.6

Confidence Interval for a Population Mean (When is Known)

1.

Now we are going to learn to calculate a level C confidence interval for the unknown mean of a population. The calculation of the interval depends on three important conditions. SRS Our method of calculation assumes that the data comes from an SRS of size n from the population of interest. Other types of random samples (stratified or cluster) may give a better representation of the population than an SRS, but they would require more complex calculations than the ones well use.

Confidence Interval for a Population Mean (When is Known)


2.

Normality The construction of the interval depends on the fact that the sampling distribution of the sample mean is at least approximately Normal. This distribution is exactly Normal if the population distribution is Normal. When the population distribution is not Normal, the Central Limit Theorem tells us that the sampling distribution of will be approximately Normal if n is sufficiently large (say, at least 30).

Confidence Interval for a Population Mean (When is Known)


3.

Independence The procedure for calculating a confidence interval assumes that individual observations are independent. Independent observations are required for us to use the formula We are safe if we sample with replacement from the population. We rarely do this though. To keep our calculations reasonably accurate when we sample without replacement from a population, we should sample no more than 10% of the population. In other words, our population must be at least 10 times larger than our sample.

Conditions Summarized

Be sure to check that these conditions for constructing a confidence interval for are satisfied before you perform any calculations.

Lets Find the Critical Value for 80%

We need to find out how many standard deviations away from the mean to go in order to catch 80% of the information. In other words, we are leaving out 20%. Since the Normal curve is symmetric, we are leaving out the top 10% and the bottom 10%. So our critical value z* would be the z-value where 90% of the data is less than it. Looking in the Normal table, we find that z* is 1.28. There is an area of 0.8 under the standard Normal curve between -1.28 and 1.28. This can be seen in the graph on the next slide.

The figure above shows the general situation for any confidence level C. If we catch the central area C, the leftover tail area is 1-C, or (1-C)/2 for each of the upper and lower tails. You can find z* for any C by searching Table A.

Common Confidence Levels


Confidence Level 90% 95% 99% Tail Area 0.05 0.025 0.005 z* 1.645 1.960 2.576

Notice that for 95% confidence we use z* = 1.960. This is more exact than the approximate value of z* = 2 given by the 68-95-99.7 rule. Values of z* that mark off a specified area under the standard Normal curve are often called critical values of the distribution.

Thinking for a Level C Confidence Interval Under any normal curve, the area between the
point z* standard deviations below its mean and the point z* standard deviations above its mean is C. The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of is and its mean is the population mean So there is probability C that the observed sample mean takes a value between Whenever this happens, the population mean is contained between That is our confidence interval. The estimate of the unknown and the margin of error is

Creating Confidence Intervals


Parameter Identify the population of interest and the parameter you want to draw conclusions about. 2. Conditions Choose the appropriate inference procedure. Verify conditions for using it. 3. Calculations If the conditions are met, carry out the inference procedure.
1. 4.

Interpretation Interpret your results in the context of the problem. Remember the three Cs: conclusion, connection, and context.

Constructing a Confidence Interval for A manufacturer of high-resolution video terminals


must control the tension on the mesh of fine wires that lie behind the viewing screen to prevent wrinkles and tearing the screen. The tension is measured by millivolts (mV). Some variation is inherent in the production process. Careful study has shown that when the process is operating properly, the standard deviation of the tension readings is The tension readings from an SRS of 20 screens are given below. Construct and interpret a 90% confidence interval for
269.5 264.7 297.0 307.7 269.6 310.0 283.3 343.3 304.8 328.1 280.4 342.6 233.5 338.8 257.4 340.1 317.5 374.6 327.4 336.1

Step 1 Parameter The population of interest is all video terminals produced on the day in question. We want to estimate the mean tension for all of these screens. Step 2 Conditions We are told we have an SRS. Normality is met because past experience suggests that the tension readings of screens produced on a single day follow a Normal distribution quite closely. What if we didnt know the distribution was Normal? Could we use the CLT? What would we do? We must assume that at least 200 video terminals were made this day for independence to be true.

Constructing a Confidence Interval for

Constructing a Confidence Interval for


Step 3 Calculation
We need to know

We can find this easily with our calculator. We also need to know z* for a confidence level of 90%. Looking up 0.95 in the table, we find that z* = 1.645. So the 90% Confidence Interval for is

Step 4 Interpretation
We are 90% confident that the true mean tension in the

entire batch of video terminals produced that day is between 290.5 and 322.1 mV.

Another Confidence Interval

Suppose that a single computer screen had a tension reading of 306.3 mV, the same value as the mean of the 20 screens in our example. What would the confidence interval be if we based it on only this single value? (Note: all of the conditions are the same and we have already shown that we met them.)

The mean of 20 measurements gives a smaller margin of error and therefore a shorter interval than a single measurement. This is shown below.

Lets Try Some

Find z* for a confidence level of 92.5%. (Note: A picture may help.)

10.9 on p. 6.32

How Confidence Intervals Behave


The user chooses a confidence level, and the margin of error follows from this choice. Ideally, we would like a high confidence and a small margin of error. High confidence says that our method almost always gives correct answers and a small margin of error says that we have pinned the parameter down quite precisely.

Smaller Margin of Error

Since gets smaller when:

the margin of error

z* gets smaller. As z* gets smaller, so does our

confidence. So to obtain a smaller margin of error, we must be willing to accept lower confidence. gets smaller. The standard deviation measures the variation in the population. It is very difficult for us to make smaller. n gets larger. Increasing the sample size n reduces the margin of error for any fixed confidence level. Because we take the square root of n, we must take four times as many observations to cut the margin of error in half.

Determining Sample Size


A wise user of statistics never plans data collection without also planning for inference at the same time. We can arrange to have both a high confidence and a small margin of error by taking enough observations. The margin of error m of the confidence interval for the population mean To determine the sample size for a desired margin of error m, substitute the value of z* for your desired confidence level, set the expression for m less than or equal to the specified margin of error, and solve the inequality for n. Lets look at an example.

Determining the Sample Size


Researchers would like to estimate the mean cholesterol level of a particular type of monkey within 1 milligram per deciliter of blood (mg/dl) of the true value at a 95% confidence level. The standard deviation is about Since monkeys are expensive, they want to find the minimum number monkeys they need to control cost. At a 95% confidence level, z* = 1.96. So

Determining Sample Size


When you find the sample size, you always round up because it has to be what you got or bigger and rounding down would be smaller. Here is the principle:

Notice that it is the size of the sample that determines the margin of error. The size of the population does not influence the sample size we need.

Cautions/Reminders

To use this method of creating a confidence interval:


Data must be from an SRS of the population. Different methods are needed if it is not an SRS. There is no correct method for inference from bad data. Outliers can distort the results because of their impact on the mean. The shape of the population distribution matters. You must know the standard deviation of the population to do this. We will learn how to handle this without the standard deviation of the population in the next section. 95% is the confidence we have in how often the procedure gives correct results not the probability that the true mean falls within our interval.

10.20

Estimating a Population Mean

HW: 10.27, 10.28, 10.30, 10.32, 10.34, 10.35, 10.36, 10.40, 10.42

These conditions are very important and must always be checked before doing any inference.

If Conditions are Met


We know that the sample mean has the Normal distribution with mean and standard deviation Because we dont know we estimate it by the sample standard deviation s. We then estimate the standard deviation of by We call this quantity the standard error of the sample mean

The t Distributions
When we know the value of we base a confidence interval for on the sampling distribution of which has a Normal distribution if the conditions are satisfied. When we do not know we substitute the standard error of for its standard deviation The distribution of the resulting statistic, t, is not Normal. It is a t distribution. Unlike the Normal distribution, there is a different t distribution for each sample of size n. We specify a particular t distribution by giving its degrees of freedom (df).

The t Distributions (cont.)

When we perform inference about using a t distribution, the appropriate degrees of freedom is

We will write the t distribution with k degrees of freedom as for short. We will also refer to the standard Normal distribution as the z distribution.

Facts about t Distributions


The density curves of t distributions are similar in shape to the standard Normal curve. They are symmetric about zero, single-peaked, and bellshaped. The spread (variation) of the t distribution is a bit greater than that of the standard Normal distribution. This is true because substituting the estimate s for the parameter introduces more variation. As the degrees of freedom increase, the density curve approaches the z distribution even more closely. This happens because s does a better job of estimating with a large sample.

Using a t Distribution
Table C in the back of the book gives critical values t* for the t distribution. Each row contains critical values for one of the t distributions with the degrees of freedom listed at the left of the row. Several of the more common confidence levels C are given at the bottom of the table. Technology makes use of such tables unnecessary, but we still need to know how to use them.

Finding t*
Suppose we want to construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean of a population based on an SRS of size What critical value t* should we use? Just look in table C for a confidence level of 95% and df = 11. So our critical value is 2.201.

One-Sample t Confidence Intervals

To construct a confidence interval for based on a sample from a Normal population with an unknown replace the standard deviation of by its standard error in the formula from section 1. Use critical values from the t distribution with degrees of freedom in place of the z critical values. This interval is calculated the same as the one in section 1 with these minor changes.

Constructing a One-sample Interval

Environmentalists, government officials, and vehicle manufacturers are all interested in studying the auto exhaust emissions produced by motor vehicles. The major pollutants in auto exhaust from gasoline engines are hydrocarbons, monoxide, and nitrogen oxides (NOX). The table below gives NOX levels (in grams per mile) for a random sample of light-duty engines of the same type.
1.17 2.20 1.16 1.78 1.08 1.83 0.60 1.26 1.32 1.73 1.24 1.31 0.71 1.80 0.49 1.15 1.38 0.97 1.20 1.12 0.72 1.79

1.28 0.95

1.31
2.27

1.45
1.87

1.22
2.94

1.32
1.16

1.47
1.45

1.44
1.51

0.51
1.47

1.49
1.06

1.33
2.01

0.86
1.39

0.57
0.78

Constructing a One-sample Interval


Step 1 Parameter The population of interest is all light-duty engines of this type. We want to estimate the mean amount of the pollutant NOX emitted, for all of these engines. Step 2 Conditions The data come from a random sample of 46 engines from the population. We are not told that it is an SRS. Our calculations may be slightly off if a different sampling method was used. The problem does not tell us whether the population is Normal. We will check this condition on the next slide. We must assume that at least 460 of these types of engines have been made for independence to be true.

Constructing a One-sample Interval


To check this, we need to plot the data to see if it is symmetric and approximately normal. We also need to check to see if it fits the 68-95-99.7 rule. The TIs boxplot shows that the data are approximately symmetric, if you ignore the outliers. The histogram also looks approximately Normal if you again ignore the outliers. The table below also shows that we are very close to the 68-95Within __ Standard Deviations 1 2 3 99.7 rule. We Count 33 45 46 will assume Percent 71.7% 97.8% 100% Normality.

Constructing a Confidence Interval for


Step 3 Calculation
We need to know

We can find this easily with our calculator. We also need to know t* for a confidence level of 95%. Looking up 95% confidence in the t table with df = 45, we find that t* = 2.021. Why did we use 40 and not 50? So the 95% Confidence Interval for is

Step 4 Interpretation
We are 95% confident that the true mean level of NOX

emitted by this type of light-duty engine is between 1.185 and 1.473 grams/mile.

What if df is not in the Table


When the actual degrees of freedom does not appear in the table, we use the largest degrees of freedom in the table that is smaller than our desired degrees of freedom. This allows us to overestimate by creating a wider confidence interval than we need. So we are being safe. Of course, you could just use your calculator! If we go to distribution, we can use invT(0.975, 45) to get the value of t*.

Paired t Procedures
Comparative studies are more convincing than single-sample investigations. For that reason, one sample inference is less common than comparative inference. A common design to compare two treatments makes use of one-sample procedures. Recall from Chapter 5 that is a matched pairs design, subjects are matched in pairs and each treatment is given to one subject in each pair. Alternatively, each subject receives both treatments in some order that is randomly selected. Another situation calling for paired t procedures is before-and-after observation on the same subjects.

The parameter

in a paired t procedure is

the mean difference in the responses to the two

treatments within matched pairs of subjects in the entire population (when subjects are matched in pairs), or the mean difference in response to the two treatments for individuals in the population (when the same subject receives both treatments), or the mean difference between before-and-after measurements for all individuals in the population (for before-and-after observations on the same individuals).

Example of Paired t Procedure

Is caffeine dependence real? Our subjects are 11 people who have been diagnosed as being caffeine dependent. Each subject was barred from coffee, colas, and other substances containing caffeine. Instead they took capsules containing their normal caffeine intake. During a different time period, they took placebo capsules. The order in which they took caffeine and placebo was randomized. Depression is the score on the Beck Depression Inventory. Higher scores show more symptoms of depression. Lets create a 90% confidence interval for the mean change in depression score. Scores are on the next slide.

Subject 1 2 3 4 5

Depression (caffeine) 5 5 4 3 8

Depression (placebo) 16 23 5 7 14

Difference (placebo caffeine) 11 18 1 4 6

6
7 8 9 10 11

5
0 0 2 11 1

24
6 3 15 12 0

19
6 3 13 1 -1

Step 1 Parameter The population of interest is all people who are dependent on caffeine. We want to estimate the mean difference in depression score that would be reported if all individuals in the population took both the caffeine and placebo capsules.

Example of Paired t Procedure

Step 2 Conditions
SRS These individuals may not be an SRS. Such

groups are usually volunteers. So they may not be truly representative of the population. As a result, we may have trouble generalizing the results of this study to the population. However, since the researchers randomly assigned the order in which each subject took the placebo and the caffeine tablet, any consistent differences we observe in subjects responses should be due to the treatments. Normality We dont know so we have to check by looking at a boxplot and seeing if it matches the 68-95Within __ Standard Deviations 1 2 3 99.7 rule. Count 8 11 11 Both check.
Percent 72.7% 100% 100%

Example of Paired t Procedure


Independence Obviously one individuals depression level

should be independent from another individuals.

Step 3 Calculation
We need to know

We can find this easily with our calculator. We also need to know t* for a confidence level of 90%. Looking up 90% confidence in the t table with df = 10, we find that t* = 1.812. So the 90% Confidence Interval for is

Step 4 Interpretation
We are 90% confident that the mean difference in

depression score for the population is between 3.584 and 11.144 points. So on average, we estimate that caffeinedependent individuals would score between 3.584 and 11.144 points higher on the Beck Depression Inventory when they are given a placebo instead of caffeine.

Example of Paired t Procedure


This study provides evidence that withholding caffeine

from caffeine-dependent individuals may lead to depression. Since the subjects were not an SRS, however, we cannot generalize any further.

Many studies that use a Paired t Procedure involve individuals who are not from an SRS of the population. In such cases, we may not be able to generalize our findings to the population of interest. By randomizing the treatments, however, we can ensure that the sizable differences in mean scores is attributable to the treatment.

Randomness

Random selection of individuals allows us to generalize to the entire population from which the individuals were selected Random assignment of treatments allows us to investigate whether there is a treatment effect, which might suggest that the treatment caused the observed difference. Be sure you understand the difference between these two!

Robustness of t Procedures

The t confidence interval is exactly correct when the distribution of the population is exactly Normal. No real data are exactly Normal. The usefulness of the t procedures in practice therefore depends on how strongly they are affected by lack of Normality. Procedures that are not strongly affected are called robust.

The t procedures are not robust against outliers, because are not resistant to outliers.

NOX Emissions

Earlier we constructed a confidence interval for the mean level of NOX emissions by a specific type of light-duty engine. One of the recorded values in our sample was an extremely high outlier (2.94 grams/mile). If we remove this data point, the remaining 45 values have The confidence interval based on this sample of 45 values would be (1.165, 1.421). This new confidence interval is narrower and is centered at a lower value that the original interval (1.185, 1.473). Are either of these correct? The outlier suggests that the population distribution of NOX emissions may not be normal and therefore, the results would not be correct.

Robustness of t Procedures
Fortunately, t procedures are quite robust against non-Normality of the population when there are no outliers, especially when the distribution is roughly symmetric. Larger samples improve the accuracy of critical values from the t distribution when the population is not Normal because of the CLT. Always make a plot to check for skewness and outliers before you use the t procedures for small samples. We can generally safely use the onesample t procedure when unless an outlier or quite strong skewness is present.

If your sample data would produce biased data for some reason, then you shouldnt bother computing a t interval. If the data you have is the entire population of interest, then theres no need to perform inference.

Can We use the t Distribution?

Percent of residents aged 65 and over in the states.

No; this is a population, not a sample.

Can We use the t Distribution?

Times of the first lightning strike each day at a site in Colorado

Yes; It is a sample with over 30 observations that is approximately symmetric.

Can We use the t Distribution?

Word lengths in Shakespeares plays

Yes; if the sample size is large enough to overcome the populations right-skewness.

Estimating a Population Proportion

HW: 10.46, 10.47, 10.48, 10.50, 10.52, 10.54, 10.56, 10.58

Population Proportions
So far we have discussed making inferences about population means. We often want to know percentages for a population though. For example:

What proportion of U.S. adults are unemployed right

now? What proportion of teenagers have a computer with internet access in their bedroom? What proportion of college students pray on a daily basis? What proportion of preteens have a cell phone? What proportion of Californians approve of the Presidents handling of the situation in Iraq?

Binge Drinking in College

Alcohol abuse is obviously a problem for colleges and universities. We want to know how prevalent binge drinking is. A 2001 survey of 10,904 U.S. college students collected information on drinking behavior and alcohol-related problems. The researchers defined frequent binge drinking as having five or more drinks in a row three or more times in the past two weeks. According to this definition, 2,486 students were classified as binge drinkers. What proportion of students in this sample were binge drinkers? Based on this data, what can we say about the proportion of all college students who engage in binge drinking?

Estimating a Population Proportion


We want to know what the population proportion p for a given population is. To do this, we use the statistic In the previous example, So we believe that the actual proportion of U.S. college students who binge drink (drink 5 or more drinks in a row at least three times over the past two weeks) is around 23%. Notice that I have to define what I mean. For instance, did you know that a survey found that 20% of adolescents smoke. Actually, 20% had smoked at least once in the past month. Only 4% had smoked at least half a pack on at least 20 of 30 days in the month.

Sampling Distribution of a Sample Proportion

Important properties of the sampling distribution of the sample proportion


Center The mean is p. In other words, the sample

proportion is an unbiased estimator of the population proportion p. Spread The standard deviation of is provided that the population is at least 10 times as large as the sample. Shape If the sample size is large enough that both np and n(1-p) are at least 10, the distribution of is approximately Normal.

But we are Trying to find p


Obviously, we dont know the population proportion p. If we did, we wouldnt have to create a confidence interval. For this reason, we cannot check to see if np and n(1-p) are at least 10. In large samples, should be close to p. Therefore, we replace p with to determine the values of np and n(1-p). We also replace the standard deviation with the standard error of

Conditions for Inference about a Proportion

If you have a small sample or a sampling design more complex than an SRS, you can still do inference, but you have to use other methods. We will not be discussing those methods.

More on Binge Drinking

We want to use our data to give a confidence interval for the proportion of college students who have engaged in frequent binge drinking. Can we?
SRS It is not an SRS. It is actually a complex

stratified random sample. The overall effect is close to an SRS though. Normality The counts of Yes and No are both greater than 10:

Independence Since there are over 109,040 college

students in the U.S., the population is more than 10 times the size of the sample.

Note: The confidence interval is still of the form

Confidence Interval for Binge Drinking


We want to create a 99% confidence interval for the proportion of U.S college students who frequently binge drink. What we know:

So the confidence interval is We are 99% confident that the proportion of U.S. college students who engage in frequent binge drinking is between 0.218 and 0.238.

Remember
The margin of error in this confidence interval includes only random sampling error. The other sources of error that are not taken into account respondents lying, nonresponse rate, not having an SRS result in bias.

Teens Say Sex Can Wait


The 2004 Gallup Youth Survey asked a random sample of 439 U.S. teens aged 13 to 17 whether they thought young people should wait to have sex until marriage. 246 said Yes. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of teens who would say Yes if asked this question. Step 1 Parameter The population is all U.S. teens. The parameter of interest is the proportion of all U.S. teens aged 13 to 17 who would say Yes young people should wait to have sex until marriage.

Teens Say Sex Can Wait

Step 2 Conditions
SRS It is not actually an SRS, but they were chosen

using a method that is designed to ensure a representative sample (which is why we need an SRS). Normality It is approximately normal since

Independence Since there are more than 4,390 teens

aged 13 to 17 in the U.S., the population is more than 10 times larger than our sample size.

Teens Say Sex Can Wait

Step 3 Calculations

Step 4 Conclusions We are 95% confident that the true population proportion of U.S teens aged 13 to 17 who would say Yes teens should wait until they are married to have sex would be within the interval (0.514, 0.606). This depends on whether our sample is truly representative.

Choosing the Sample Size


In a planning a study, we may want to choose a sample size that will allow us to estimate the population proportion within a given margin of error. We did this same thing for a population mean and the procedure is similar for a population proportion. The margin of error in the approximate confidence interval for p is

Choosing the Sample Size

Because the margin of error uses the sample proportion of successes we need to guess this value when choosing n. Call our guess p*. There are two ways to get p*.
1. Use a guess for p* based on a pilot study or on past

experience with similar studies. You should do several calculations that the cover the range of you might get. 2. Use p* = 0.5 as the guess. The margin of error is largest when so this guess is conservative in the sense that if we get any other when we do our study, we will get a margin of error smaller than planned.

Which method for finding the guess p* should we use. The n we get doesnt change much when you change p* as long as p* is not too far from 0.5. So use the conservative guess p* = 0.5 if you expect the true p to be roughly between 0.3 and 0.7. If the true p will be closer to 0 or 1, using p* will give a sample larger than needed. So try to use a guess from a pilot study when you suspect p will be less than 0.3 or greater than 0.7.

Customer Satisfaction
A company received complaints about its customer service. They want to conduct a survey to find out whether this is a true problem or just a few incidents. They want to find the proportion of customers that are satisfied or very satisfied within 3% at a 95% confidence level. Since we have no idea what the actual proportion p is, we decide to be safe and use p* = 0.5. So which means we need a sample size of at least 1068 to ensure that the margin of error is no more than 3%.

Lets Try a Few!

10.55, 10.57, 10.59