Climate Change in the 21st Century.

Keith Mountain Dept. Geography and Geosciences UofL 01/09/2014

Powerful history of investigation into climate and climate change.

Charles David Keeling (1928-2005)
Stewart Callendar (1898-1964

Ellsworth Huntington (1876-1947)

Rachel Carson (1907-1964)

BASIC FACTS:
Levels of Carbon Dioxide in the Earths atmosphere has increased above normal levels over the past 50 years. Levels of Methane in the Earths atmosphere has increased above normal levels in the past 50 years the past 50 years. Overall, global atmospheric temperatures have increased since the late 1800s.

Basic FACTS:
The average depth of the Earths atmosphere is 6 to7 miles (10 12kilometers). The Earths climate defined as a closed system. The atmospheric composition of the current atmosphere is:
Nitrogen--- 78.084% Oxygen-----20.946% Argon------- 0.934%

==== 99.123%

WHAT & WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE?

Observation (instrumental records) Reconstructed (proxy) records.
Geologic Botanical (palynology, dendrochronology) Soils Glaciological Marine
In all of these (and other) techniques applied in climate reconstruction an environmental signal that reflects the conditions at the time of formation exists.

Event

Time

Event

Time

Event

Time

Event

Time

Event

Time

Probability

MODES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Advantage of Glaciers as climate change indicators

1. Global in extent 2. Contain a long historical record 3. Multiple climate elements in stratigraphy 4. Direct connection to the climate system 5. Modern day analogs

Muir Glacier, Muir Inlet, Alaska: 1941, 1950 and 2004

Shepard Glacier, Glacier National Park, Montana, 1913 and 2005.

Source: USGS 2010.

Retreating ice, Punjack Jaya, Papua, 2011.

North Wall Firn Ice Cap. Papua, Indonesia. 2010

Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania.

Breakup of the Northern Ice Field, Kilimanjaro, 2002.

Furtwangler Glacier, Kilimanjaro, 2002.

Furtwangler Glacier, Kilimanjaro, 2010. (Mike OToole).

Glacial retreat, Brooks Range, Alaska.

Retreating margin of the Quelccaya Ice cap, Peru. July 2011.

Margins of the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru, 2000

Margin of the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru, 2005

Margin of the Quelcaya Ice Cap, Peru, July 2011.

Peru relies extensively on glacial meltwater to meet hydrologic needs including irrigation, domestic consumption, and hydro-electric generation.

The impacts of climate change are now widely experienced.

What is SCIENCE?
Truth and falsification (falsification is an essential part of the process). Hypothesis development (Null/Alternate). Karl Popper (British philosopher). Science as a continual process with knowledge added systematically. Thomas Kuhn The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Paradigm shifts.

Support of Science?
Funding agency normal review process. Based upon what is perceived as an important set of problems and research based on merit. Independent funding (Think Tanks):
Cato Institute Competitive Enterprise Institute American Enterprise Institute Center for American Progress