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SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11

Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013

PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

Example: Company Trip


Identify Response Owner

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if occurs. Threat: Negative risks Opportunities: Positive risks Risk management objectives: increase the probability and impact of positive events (opportunities). has an effect on at least one project objective.20/08/2013 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT      Risk is an uncertain event or condition that.SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son . Issue is a point or matter in question or in dispute.  decrease the probability and impact of negative events (threat).  2 .

doesn’t like risk. their decisions towards risks are not biased by any other factors.  Risk Seeker: people see risks as challenges and feel exciting dealing with them. except for the risks’ expected value.20/08/2013 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT  Risk Attitudes  Risk Averse: people are not comfortable with risks. they are willing to avoid the risks. that is. This means they do not pay much attention to risks.  Risk Neutral: people manage risks based on their expected value. until these risks become real problems. In other words.  Risk Tolerant: people are indifferent about risks.SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son . probability times impact. 3 .

6 Control Risks 4 .PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT       11.5 Plan Risk Responses 11.2 Identify Risks 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 11.1 Plan Risk Management 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 11.

2 Identify Risks 11.1 Plan Risk Management 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 11.6 Control Risks 5 .20/08/2013 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT Knowledge Area Process Initiating Planning Executing Monitoring & Contol Closing Project Risk Management 11.SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son .5 Plan Risk Responses 11.

Budgeting.20/08/2013 11.1 Analytical techniques .2 Expert judgment .SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son .2 Project charter . Inputs Tool&Techniques Outputs . Timing.1 Project management plan .1 Risk management plan Risk Management Plan include:       Methodology.3 Stakeholder register .5 OPAs  .4 EEFs . Roles and responsibilities. … 6 .3 Meetings .1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT  Plan Risk Management is the process of defining how to conduct risk management activities for a project. Risk categories.

20/08/2013 11. a structure based on project objectives by category Example of a Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) 7 . for example. Several approaches can be used.1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT  Risk categories: Provide a means for grouping potential causes of risk.SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son .

1 Documentation reviews .1 Risk management plan .10 Project documents .2 IDENTIFY RISKS  Identify Risks is the process of determining which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics.7 Activity cost estimates .11 Procurement documents .2 Cost management plan .7 Expert judgment Outputs .12 EEFs .SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son . Tool&Techniques .4 Quality management plan .4 Assumptions analysis .8 Activity duration estimates .6 SWOT analysis .1 Risk register Inputs .20/08/2013 11.3 Checklist analysis .5 Diagramming techniques .5 Human resource management plan .2 Information gathering techniques .13 OPAs 8 .3 Schedule management plan .6 Scope baseline .9 Stakeholder register .

9 .20/08/2013 11.2 IDENTIFY RISKS  SWOT Analysis: This analysis looks at the project to identify its strengths and weaknesses and thereby identify risks (opportunities and threats).SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son .

SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son .2 IDENTIFY RISKS  Risk Register 10 .20/08/2013 11.

20/08/2013 11.1 Risk management plan .3 Risk register .5 OPAs .6 Expert judgment .3 Risk data quality assessment .SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son .1 Risk probability and impact assessment .5 Risk urgency assessment .4 EEFs .2 Probability and impact matrix .3 PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS  Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis is the process of prioritizing risks for further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact. Inputs Tool&Techniques Outputs .2 Scope baseline .1 Project documents updates 11 .4 Risk categorization .

3 PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS  Probability and Impact Matrix 12 .20/08/2013 11.SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son .

Inputs .4 Risk register .6 OPAs Tool&Techniques .2 Cost management plan .3 Expert judgment Outputs .4 PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS  Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis is the process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives.20/08/2013 11.1 Risk management plan .1 Data gathering and representation techniques .1 Project documents updates 13 .SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son .2 Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques .5 EEFs .3 Schedule management plan .

20/08/2013 11.SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son .4 PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS   Expected monetary value analysis Expected monetary value (EMV) = Probability * Impact 14 .

5 PLAN RISK RESPONSES  Plan Risk Responses is the process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives.20/08/2013 11.1 Strategies for negative risks or threats .1 Project management plan updates .2 Project documents updates 15 .3 Contingent response strategies .1 Risk management plan .SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son .2 Strategies for positive risks or opportunities .2 Risk register Tool&Techniques . Inputs .4 Expert judgment Outputs .

warranties. Mitigate: Taking early action to reduce the probability and/or impact of a threat Accept: Do nothing and say. changing the strategy. or reducing scope Transfer: Make another party responsible for the risk by purchasing insurance. “If it happens. or guarantees or by outsourcing the work. performance bonds.SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son .20/08/2013 11. it happens:” 16 .5 PLAN RISK RESPONSES  Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats     Avoid: Changing the project management plan to eliminate the threat entirely: extending the schedule.

Enhance: Increase the likelihood (probability) and/or positive impacts of the risk event. Share: Allocate ownership of the opportunity to a third party (forming a partnership. it happens:” 17 . “If it happens.SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son .20/08/2013 11.5 PLAN RISK RESPONSES  Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities     Exploit: Add work or change the project to make sure the opportunity occurs. team. or joint venture) that is best able to achieve the opportunity Accept: Do nothing and say.

20/08/2013 11. 18 . Fallback plans These plans are specific actions that will be taken if the contingency plan is not effective. Contingency reserves that are calculated based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project and the organization’s risk thresholds.5 PLAN RISK RESPONSES       Contingency plans are plans describing the specific actions that will be taken if the opportunity or threat occurs. Secondary risks that arise as a direct outcome of implementing a risk response. Residual risks These are the risks that remain after risk response planning.SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son . Risk response owners A key concept in risk response planning is that the project manager does not have to do it all and neither does the team.

identifying new risks. tracking identified risks.3 Work performance data . and evaluating risk process effectiveness throughout the project.4 Work performance reports .3 Variance and trend analysis .1 Work performance information .1 Project management plan .6 Meetings .4 Project documents updates . Tool&Techniques Outputs Inputs .1 Risk reassessment .2 Risk register .SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son . monitoring residual risks.5 Organizational process assets updates 19 .2 Change requests .20/08/2013 11.6 CONTROL RISKS  Control Risks is the process of implementing risk response plans.4 Technical performance measurement .5 Reserve analysis .2 Risk audits .3 Project management plan updates .