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Goodness of Fit

Chi-Square Distributions Several important statistical tests use a probability distribution known as chi square. The graph of the distribution depends on the number of degrees of freedom (number of free choices) in a statistical experiment. . denoted .f. 0 0 is a family of distributions. for 1 or 2 d. for 3 or more d.f. The distributions are skewed right and are not symmetric. The value of is greater than or equal to 0.

24% are remarriages for both. 14% for the groom only and 24% a remarriage for both. H1: The distribution of first-time marriages differs from the claimed distribution. 12% are first for the bride only.Chi-Square Test for Goodness-of-Fit Example: A social service organization claims 50% of all marriages are the first marriage for both bride and groom. . 12% for the bride only. 14% for the groom only. First Marriage Bride and Groom Bride only Groom only Neither % 50 12 14 24 H0: The distribution of first-time marriages is 50% for both bride and groom.

50) = 51. find the E = expected number in each category. is the calculated frequency for the category using the specified distribution.72 .42 103(.36 103(. Ei = npi In a survey of 103 married couples.24) = 24.14) = 14. E. O. First Marriage % E = np Bride and Groom Bride only Groom only Neither 50 12 14 24 103(.50 103(.Goodness-of-Fit Test Observed frequency.12) = 12. is the frequency of the category found in the sample. Expected frequency.

The test statistic is: O = observed frequency in each category E = expected frequency in each category .Chi-Square Test If the observed frequencies are obtained from a random sample and each expected frequency is at least 5. the sampling distribution for the goodnessof-fit test is a chi-square distribution with k – 1 degrees of freedom (where k = the number of categories).

Test the distribution claimed by the agency. 14% for the groom only. 24% are remarriages for both. State the level of significance. The results of a study of 103 randomly selected married couples are listed in the table.A social service organization claims 50% of all marriages are the first marriage for both bride and groom. 14% for the groom only. Use . 2. H0: The distribution of first-time marriages is 50% for both bride and groom. Write the null and alternative hypothesis. 12% for the bride only. 12% are first for the bride only. and 24% a remarriage for both. f 55 12 12 24 . First Marriage Bride and Groom Bride only Groom only Neither 1. Ha: The distribution of first-time marriages differs from the claimed distribution.

0105 5.34 2 6.0210 0.6755 = 0.2379 0.25__ 0. 0 11.72 103. Find the critical value.6755 Bride and groom Bride only Groom only Neither Total .8564 0. Find the rejection region.36 14.f. % 50 12 14 24 100 O 55 12 12 24 103 E 51. Determine the sampling distribution.5_ 12.5184 0.3.1296 0. A chi-square distribution with 4 – 1 = 3 d.4061 0. 5.__ (O – E)2 (O – E) 2/E 12.42 24. 4. Find the test statistic.

6755 does not fall in the rejection region. Interpret your decision. .34 7.0 11. The test statistic 0. 8. so fail to reject H0. Make your decision. The distribution fits the specified distribution for first-time marriages.

Section 10.2 Independence .

e. Two variables are independent if the occurrence of one of the variables does not affect the occurrence of the other. gender and job performance) are independent. Low Male Female Total 22 14 36 Average 81 75 156 Superior 9 19 28 Total 112 108 220 ..Test for Independence A chi-square test may be used to determine whether two variables (i. The following contingency table reflects the gender and job performance evaluation of 220 accountants.

2 = (112)(156)/220 = 79.33 17.Expected Values Assuming the variables are independent.58 Superior 14.42 All other expected values can be found by subtracting from the total of the row or the column. then the expected value of each cell is: E1.1 = (112)(36)/220 = 18.75 Total 112 108 220 Total 36 156 28 .67 Average 79. Low Male Female 18.42 76.25 13.33 E1.

Sampling Distribution The sampling distribution is a distribution with degrees of freedom equal to: (Number of rows – 1) (Number of columns – 1) Example: Find the sampling distribution for a test of independence that has a contingency table of 4 rows and 3 columns.f. distribution with . The sampling distribution is a ( 4 – 1) (3 – 1) = 3•2 = 6 d.

State the level of significance. Low Male Female Total 22 14 36 Average 81 75 156 Superior 9 19 28 Total 112 108 220 1.Application The following table reflects the gender and job performance evaluation of 220 accountants. H0: Gender and job performance are independent. 2. Use . Write the null and alternative hypothesis. . Test the claim that gender and job performance are independent. Ha: Gender and job performance are not independent.

Find the test statistic. 5. Since there are 2 rows and 3 columns. . Find the critical value.3. Find the rejection region. 5. the sampling distribution is a chi-square distribution with (2 – 1)•(3 – 1) = 2 d. Determine the sampling distribution.99 0 6.f. 4.

76 0.75 220.01 5.03 2.61 0.58 13.67 76.74 0.25 17.03 1.51 = 5.50 27.61 13.Chi-Square Test O E (O – E)2 (O – E)2/E 22 81 9 14 75 19 220 18.33 79.49 2.51 .50 27.49 2.00 13.94 0.42 14.

5. .99 7.51. Gender and job evaluation are independent variables. Interpret your decision. The test statistic. so fail to reject H0. does not fall in the rejection region. Make your decision.0 5. Do not hire accountants based on their gender. since gender does not influence job performance levels. 8.

Analysis of Variance .

H0: (All population means are equal. The variance is calculated in two different ways and the ratio of the two values is formed.) Ha: At least one of the means is different from the others. 1. The variance within samples is due to sampling error. measures the differences related to entries within the same sample.ANOVA One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a hypothesis testing technique that is used to compare means from three or more populations. 2. Mean Square Between. Mean Square Within. measures the differences related to the treatment given to each sample. MSB. the variance within samples. . the variance between samples. MSW .

” The variation from the grand mean (mean of all values in all groups) is measured. The treatment (or factor) is the variable that distinguishes members of one sample from another. (k = the number of treatments or factors. the degrees of freedom.Mean Square Between Each group is given a different “treatment.) . First calculate SSB and then divide by k – 1.

the degrees of freedom. and the F-ratio will differ significantly from 1. •If MSB is significantly greater than MSW. the variation is not attributed to different effects the different treatments have on the variable. . •If MSB is close in value to MSW. the variation is probably due to differences in the treatments or factors. The ratio of the two measures (F-ratio) is close to 1.Mean Square Within Calculate SSW and divide by N – k.

Analysis of Variance The table shows the annual amount spent on reading (in $) for a random sample of American consumers from four regions. . At . can you conclude that the mean annual amounts spent are different? Northeast Midwest South West 223 184 221 269 199 171 204 308 246 103 58 169 143 246 141 164 109 158 119 220 167 99 144 76 214 316 108 1. Write the null and alternative hypothesis. H0: (All population means are equal.) Ha: At least one of the means is different from the others.

0.D = 23 0.f.6 0.5 0.f. d. An F distribution with d.1 0. 3.2 0. State the level of significance.2. Find the rejection region.10 0 1 2 3 4 5 2.0 4.8 0.3 0.N = 3. 5. Determine the sampling distribution.34 . Find the critical value.4 0.7 0.

00 135.6.05 1741.80 4050.71 1020. Find the test statistic. 210.14 177. Northeast 308 58 141 109 220 144 316 Midwest 246 169 246 158 167 76 South 103 143 164 119 99 214 108 West 223 184 221 269 199 171 204 Calculate the mean and variance for each sample.39 Calculate the mean of all values. .

71 210.00 1704.26 0.0 11934.26 463.8 0.14 n 7 6 7 7 66.8 .0 7687.Mean Square Between mean 1 2 3 4 185.86 1098.00 135.14 177.

80 59031.66 4050.4 6124.9 20250.39 1020.05 1741.8 .2 10448.n s2 1 2 3 4 7 6 7 7 9838.

3 0. Interpret your decision.2 0.1 0. .4 0.10 0 1 2 2. 8.6 0. Make your decision.8 0.0 0.5 0. There is not enough evidence to support the claim that the means are not all equal.0.53 3 4 5 7.669 does not fall in the rejection region. Since F = 1. Expenses for reading are the same for all four regions.7 0. fail to reject the null hypothesis.

fail to reject the null hypothesis.215 Using the P-value method.10.215 > 0.Minitab Output One-way Analysis of Variance Source Factor Error Total Analysis of Variance DF SS MS F 3 20085 6695 1.61 23 95857 4168 26 15942 P 0. There is not enough evidence to support that the amount spent on reading is different in different regions. . since 0.

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