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Why Nuclear Electricity for India?

V S Arunachalam Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bangalore, INDIA & Department of Engineering & Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA

Growth of Indias Power Sector


Installed Generation Capacity (GW)

140
Per Capita Consumption (kWh)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year
Number of Villages Electrified
700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1940

Serious Growth after 60s Generation 6th largest in world Per capita consumption low Close to 95% villages electrified

(Projected)

Ministry of Power, Government of India

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

The Status

Installed Capacity > 120 GW


Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh Coal dominant energy source (58%)
Diesel 1196 Hydro 30135

Wind 2488

Nuclear 2720

Coal 67166

Gas 11840

Ministry of Power, Government of India

Indias Future Growth


India needs sustained economic growth > 8% to radically improve its HDI Growth in last few years ~ 5%7% Growth hampered by infrastructure: electric power
Peak shortfall Average shortfall High T&D Losses: Unscheduled black-outs, especially in rural areas Supply to agriculture sector not metered and almost free

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.

Growth Areas
Present growth is skills or resource driven (exports: software, gems and jewels, garment manufacture) Future Growth will have to be on value addition & engineering Rural sector to play a major role (agricultural and dairy produce; minimizing wastage and improving efficiency) Infrastructure building (roads, buildings, railroads etc.,) Manufacturing

The elasticity has to be greater than 1 for powering future growth

Elasticity and Electric Power Needs


Target economic growth ~ 8%
6

Elasticity of electricity with GDP stabilizing at ~ 1.2


Implications for future electric power requirements by 2015: Capacity addition Investments Fuel mix Pricing and Policies T&D reforms

Elasticity of Generation vs GDP

5 4 3 2 1 0 195156 195661 196166 196974 197478 198085 198590 199297

Review of State Electricity Boards

Electric Power Requirements


2000

300 280

1800

260
Generation (billion kWh)

Capacity Needed (GW)

1600

240 220 200 180 160 140

1400

1200

1000

800

120
600 2006 Key 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year GDP Growth Rate 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

100 2006 Key

2007

2008

2009

2010 Year

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

GDP Growth Rate 0.05 0.06 0.07

0.08 0.09 0.1

Required for 8% economic growth by 2015: Installed Capacity 250 GW Generation 1500 billion kWh Per Capita Consumption 1000 kWh

The Task Ahead


Need to add 135 GW in ten years 13,500 MW required per annum ~ One power plant per month China adds one per week !! Maximum added till now is 4,600 MW (One in four months)
25000 20000 Total Capacity addition required 15000

Annual Capacity Addition (MW)

10000

5000

Annual added capacity

0
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Fuel Supply: Options for Future


Coal
Conventional Gasification

Fuel Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear

Present 67,166 MW 11,840 MW 30,135 MW 2,720 MW

In 2015 ? ? ? ?

Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear


PHWR + FB + AHWR PLWR

Wind
On-shore Off-shore

Wind
Biomass Solar TOTAL

2,488 MW
1,000 MW 115,035 MW

?
? ? 250,000 MW

Biomass Solar
Photo voltaic Concentrating Solar Power

King Coal !
Reserves Proven 91 billion Tons Indicated 116 billion Tons Inferred 37 billion Tons TOTAL 245 billion Tons Coal reserves: > 250 years at present levels of consumption Concentrated in Eastern India
Others 13%

Madhya Pradesh 7%

Jharkhand 29%

Chattisgarh 16% Orissa 24% West Bengal 11%

Indian Coal Quality


High ash: Low sulfur 25%-45% < 0.5%
Illinois # 6 Heating Value (BTU/lb) 10,900 Ash Content (%) 11.00 Sulfur

(%)
3.25

Low energy content CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh Issues with coal:
Ash disposal: annual ash generation > 90 million tons CO2 emissions

Wyodak

11,960

5.97

0.40

WPC Utah

11,240

5.32

0.61

Indian Coal

6,500

25-45

<0.5

Coal: Future Scenarios


700

Coal Requirement in Power Sector (Million Tons)

Projections of coal demand (2015):


High growth : 580 MT BAU scenario : 380 MT Domestic production will not be enough. Imports needed

600

Accelerated growth scenario

500

400 Business as Usual 300

200

Coal Transport by Railways

Issues:
Ash generation > 200 million Tons CO2 emissions > 850 Million Tons Particulate and NOx emissions (presently not regulated) Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail transportation stagnation

100

0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Indias CO2 Emissions


Indias fossil based CO2 emissions in 2003: Coal 666 MMT Petroleum 305 MMT Natural Gas 53 MMT Indias CO2 emissions rapidly growing Trebled during 1981-2001
Share of global emissions
India 1980 2003 1.64% 5.60% China 7.83% 19.34% Total 9.47% 24.93%
35% US
Share of Global CO2 Emissions (%)

30% 25% Western Europe 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1980 India

China

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

India and China presently not subject to mandatory cuts in CO2 However future may not be so

EIA, US Department of Energy

Options with Coal


Coals dominance will undoubtedly continue.
Availability Cheap

The question is: How much do we want to add with coal given the constraints of quality, transportation, carbon emissions and environmental issues.

Coal scenarios for high economic growth ~ 8%


Installed Capacity of Coal (GW) Upper Case Coal still contributes 60% of capacity Aggressive deployment of nuclear and natural gas technologies ~ 150 GW Coal Required (Million MT) 580 MMT CO2 Emissions (Million MT) 850 MMT

Lower Case

~ 120 GW

470 MMT

690 MMT

Hydro-Electricity
Inferred potential > 120 GW Installed capacity 30 GW Most big projects are in NorthEastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and J&K Problems of rehabilitation and resettlement with large projects Environmental issues Water sharing agreements with neighbors
National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India

Hydro-Electric Potential
Details of projects under construction Ongoing and Planned Projects
Projects awaiting clearance and government approval Projects at DPR and infrastructure development stage Projects under survey and investigation 2,570 MW
Dulhasti Dhauliganga Stage - I * J&K Uttaranchal Sikkim Manipur Himachal Pradesh J&K Arunachal Pradesh West Bengal Madhya Pradesh State Capacity (MW) 390 140 510 90 800 120 2000 132 520 4702

11,620 MW

Teesta Stage V Loktak Downstream Parbati-II

11,000 MW
Sewa-II Subansiri Lower Teesta Lower Dam-III

Possible to add 10,000 MW by 2015

Omkareshwar TOTAL

Natural Gas
Fastest growing primary fuel, worldwide Indian statistics (2004-05):
Consumption: > 31 BCM/year Primary uses: Power 41% Fertilizer 32% Sponge Iron 4% Other 23% Growing needs for transportation (and some cooking) Latent demand estimated as high as 80 BCM (depends on price, of course)

Turkmenistan
1 1

CENTGAS - to Pakistan - onwards to India TAPS TAPS (across water) Gas supply
3 3 Oman Oman 4 4 Qatar Qatar

Afghanistan
Consumption center
1 1 Turkmenistan Turkmenistan 2 2 Iran Iran

Iran
Multan

Indias Gas Pipelines


New Delhi

Pakistan
2 2 4 4

Qatar

Gw adar

Karachi

India
Indore Indore

3 3

Baroda

Oman

Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)

Natural Gas Pipelines


Gas Authority of India Limited

Imports of Gas
LNG growing (5+ million tons/annum), but prices remain high
1 ton LNG can power ~ 1 GW of power 1 BCM gas ~ .8 GW of power thus, 20 BCM ~ 16,000 MW of gas power

Initial imports wont necessarily add to elec. capacity


Will substitute naphtha in power plants and find other uses as well
More than half the fertilizer feedstock is gas Industry has already claimed the bulk of current LNG supplies

Biomass
India predominantly agricultural country. Annual production of agro-forest and processing residues: 350 million tons Power generation potential > 22,000 MW Advantages:
Decentralized generation: close to rural load centers. Technology reasonably well developed Environmentally friendly: No net CO2 emissions
Feedstock Agro-forest residues Examples Wood chips, mulberry, coconut shells Rice husk, sugarcane bagasse Potential 17,000 MW Installed 50 MW

Processing residues

5,000 MW

1000 MW

Biomass Conversion Technologies


Gasifier-reciprocating engine Power plants of 5 kW 100 kW possible Diesel engine needs ~ 15%-20% for ignition Cost of electricity is high Gas engine can operate on 100% syngas Overall efficiency ~ 20% Largest gasifier 100 kW Fluidized bed combustion boilers
Rice husk and bagasse 25%-30% Power plants of 5 MW 35 MW operating in various sugar mills Producing electricity is sweeter than sugar !!

50 kW biomass gasifier power plant in Karnataka

Biomass for Decentralized Rural Power


Electric power requirement of typical Indian village < 100 kW
~ 75% is irrigation pumps Presently these get virtually free, un-metered grid supply of poor quality, few hours a day

Locally available biomass can sustain a plant of 25 kW-100 kW


Gasifier-reciprocating engine technology is fairly robust

Cost of generation reasonable


$ 0.06-0.07 per kWh

BUT, still widespread dissemination not visible:


Economics unviable due to low PLF People not willing to pay when state gives free ! Loss of organic fertilizer on land

Good potential from bagasse and husk:


Can expect to add 3000 MW by 2015.

Wind Energy
World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)
18,000

Gross potential Technical potential

: 45,000 MW
Installed Capacity (MW)

16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

(assuming 1% land availability in potential areas)

: 13,000 MW

(assuming 20% grid penetration in potential areas)

Germany

Denmark

Netherlands

Present installed capacity ~ 3000 MW

Global Wind Energy Council

Site selection issues:


More from fiscal benefits than from power Many plants not operating Low average load factor~13%

China

Rapid growth in installed capacity from 1990s India ranks 5th in the world

India

Italy

Spain

UK

US

Japan

Wind Speed Maps of Selected Countries

Denmark

In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US

US

Off-shore Wind in Europe


Country Capacity Depth (m) Distance from Shore (km) 14 20 km Remarks Denmark 160 MW 6 12 m Completed

UK
Denmark Denmark Sweden Germany Netherlands Germany Ireland

60 MW
23 MW 5 MW 10 MW 1040 MW 120 MW 240 MW 520 MW

48m
20 m 35m 6 10 m 30 m 20 24 m 20 m 25m

2.3 km
3.5 km 6 km 5 km 43 50 km 23 km 34 km 10 km

Completed
Completed Completed Completed Planned Planned Planned Partly complete

Europe and US have taken up several off-shore projects. Wind speeds higher Distance from shore in some cases ~ 30 40 km !

India: Off Shore Wind Scenario


Bathymetry of Indian Seas
Distance (Km)
0 2400 2200 2000 1800 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2400

Depth (metres)

2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

Distance (Km)

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400

Distance (Km)

Distance (Km)

Nuclear Power: The Present Status


14000 12000 Planned

Installed Capacity (MW)

10000

8000

6000

4000

Presently installed

2000

0
1969 1973 1981 1984 1986 1991 1992 1993 1995 2000 2005 2006 2015

Indian Nuclear Program: The Present Status


12 PHWR & 2 BWR now under operation 4 PHWR and 2 LWR under commission 2950 MW generation & 3000 MW under commission Successful experiments with Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR) Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for 500MWe under construction Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) using (Pu-Th) O2 MOX for 300MWe: advanced stage of design approval; construction soon to begin.

Indian Nuclear Program: The Constraints


Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40 years Non-signatory to NPT: no access to global technologies, materials or services Slow growth of nuclear electric power: ~1000 MWe annually Major dependence on Pu and U233 MOX for fuel Complex fuel technologies. Total capacity limited

Why Cooperate?
India needs electric power now, more than ever, for human development and growth It must generate power from all energy sources Excessive and continued dependence on coal contributes to environmental degradation & global warming Limitations of renewable energy sources

Why Cooperate?
Politics of Non-Proliferation: Power & Responsibility R&D: cooperation and Collaboration Bilateral trade & economic issues Sharing global energy resources Environmental concerns Shared vision: secular, democratic & caring society

Why Cooperate?

Climate change is a greater threat to humanity than terrorism, and no less urgent. ---David King, Science Advisor to Prime
Minister of UK

An Action Plan
Until Nuclear Fusion and Hydrogen technologies mature Minimizing wastage; energy conservation; Development of Energy Plan Installation of nuclear power ( 34GW in 10 years) Investments in R&D to make renewable technologies efficient, sustainable &affordable

An Action Plan
Strict enforcement of export controls of technologies, equipment and services Nuclear power reactors under international safeguards Collaboration in developing technologies for utilizing MOX fuels for electric power generation Participation in Gen. 4 R&D initiatives

Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015


Same Fuel Mix as now
Wind 1.99% Biomass 1.19% Solar thermal 0.40%

Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition


Hydro 15.96% Wind 1.99% Biomass Solar thermal 1.19% 0.40%

Hydro 15.96%

Nuclear 5.06% Diesel 0.48% Gas 14.49%

Nuclear 14.60%
Coal 60.44%

Coal 50.90%

Diesel 0.48% Gas 14.49%

Reduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons Reduction in annual CO2 Emissions > 170 Million Tons
~ Total present CO2 emissions of Netherlands !

Primary energy consumption per capita

What If.
India & China Were Developedby 2013?
Present Electricity Per Capita (kWh) Global Carbon Emissions (Million Tons per Year)
5000

US India China

> 14,000 600 1300

2002 2013

4000

Target: 14,000 kWh by 2013 Expected Carbon Emission: 14,400 Million Tons (2.5 times present global emissions !!) CO2 concentration > 400 ppm Temperature rise > 0.5 C
(Calculations Based on Data in Climate Change 2001, IPCC)

3000

2000

1000

0 OECD India China Others

What If India & China Guzzle Oil?


Present Number of Cars per 1000 Global Oil Consumption (Million Barrels per Day)

US India China

> 750 4 8
Million Barrels per Day

160

2003 2013

120

Target: 250 Cars per 1000


World Oil Consumption: 387 Million Barrels a Day
At Present 77 Million Barrels a Day

80

40

Oil reserves deplete in 8 years !!


At Present 42 years

0 India China US Other OECD Others

I saw God In the smile of the poor


Mahatma Gandhi

The cost of Power


7 6

Cost of Generation (Rs per kWh)

5 4 3 2 1 0 0 50 100 150 200 Plant Capacity (kW) 250 300


Residential Tariff Irrigation Tariff Utility's Cost of Supply