GEOG 102 – Population, Resources, and the Environment

Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

Case Study 2 – Global Population Trends

1 – The Explosion of the World’s Population 2 – North / South Differences 3 – Impacts

1

The Explosion of the World’s Population
■ The 20th Century
Huge growth of the world’s population. Almost exponential from the 1920s until today. Population was multiplied by three. Around 80-85 million persons are added each year. 60 million new urbanites per year. Urban population is now 2.6 billion, of which 1.7 billions are in developing countries. • More than 65% of the global population is thus living in developing economies. • • • • • •

• As the number of people increases. . notably in newly industrialized economies. • They have the least resources available to undertake such a process. environmental impact also increases. • Paradox in developing countries: • Population growth monitoring is essential in these areas.1 The Explosion of the World’s Population ■ Human welfare • Living conditions are improving in a number of areas. • Insufficient to improve the welfare of the bulk of the world’s population. • Challenge of the degradation of the living environment of a significant share of the urban population.

1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 World Population 1804-2054 (in billions) 127 years 1804 1850 1900 26 years 2028 15 years 2013 14 years 1999 12 years 1987 13 years 1974 14 years 1960 33 years 1927 2054 1800 1950 2000 2050 .

19501998 (in millions) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 19 50 19 53 19 56 19 59 19 62 19 65 19 68 19 71 19 74 19 77 19 80 19 83 19 86 19 89 19 92 19 95 19 98 .1 Population Added to the Global Population.

2000-2050 (in billions) High Medium Low 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 .1 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Possible Trends in Population Growth.

• Difficult to estimate.83 billion. • The world’s nations by their actions or inactions will choose their demographic future.1 The Explosion of the World’s Population ■ The 1990s • Critical decade for the future of the world’s population. • Difference of 720 million people in the short span of 15 years is nearly equal to the current population of Africa. . • Population growth has started to slow down. ■ 2015 projections (United Nations) • Population projections range from a low of 7. often lack of reliable population data.10 billion people to 7.

8.9 billion is the most likely figure. In 1996 this number was estimated to be 9.1 The Explosion of the World’s Population ■ 2050 Projections • • • • • World population between 7. smaller families.3 and 10. . • 33% attributed to increased mortality rates (Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia). • 66% attributed to improvements in health care.7 billion.4 billion. A 500 million difference! Global fertility rates have declined more rapidly than expected.

• Population consumes resources: • Food and raw materials. • Population consumes energy: • Requires important efforts to supply.1 The Explosion of the World’s Population ■ Demographic explosion of Third World countries • Main ecological catastrophe affecting humanity. • Several forms of energy supply (coal and petroleum) are highly damaging for the environment. • Population consumes space: • Often taken at the expense of agriculture or the natural environment. . • Scarce and often poorly managed.

1 Population Pyramid of Least Developed Countries. 1950-2050 .

1 Population Pyramid. 1950 80+ 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 Females Males -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 . Southeast Asia.

2000 80+ 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 Females Males -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 .1 Population Pyramid. Southeast Asia.

2050 80+ 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 Females Males -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 . Southeast Asia.1 Population Pyramid.

2 North / South Division of the World North Brandt Line South .

2 North / South Differences 1950 33% 1985 25% 67% 75% 2000 20% 2025 17% 80% 83% .

2 The Three Worlds Capitalist economies lead by the United States West North Socialist economies lead by the USSR East South Area of conflict between the first and the second world (Korea.) Nonaligned nations . Africa. etc. Vietnam.

• In developed economies it will be well managed and under control. • The urban population of Germany has increased by 1 million between 1985 and 1995. . • A source of instability and conflicts. notably in Western Europe. • Urbanization may be in this context solely a problem of Third World countries. • Urbanization: • Urban growth is several developed countries have become stable. • Huge migration pressures from developing countries to developed countries.2 North / South Differences ■ Third World countries • Assume the bulk of the demographic growth.

3 Impacts ■ “The fewer forks school” • Environmentalist argument. . ■ “The better manners school” • Humanitarian view. ■ “The bigger pie school” • Optimistic economist view. • Technology will increase the amount of resource we rely on. • Reduce inequality in income and be more rational in the pricing of goods. • Rapidly decrease population growth and consumption patterns.

• The latter will consume vastly greater resources and contribute more to planetary degradation. ■ Strain on soils and food supplies • Land tenure problems. • Consumption of resources associated with population increase. • At some point. resulting in ever-smaller parcels of land. . • Vast difference in impact between the birth of a baby in a Third World country and one born in the USA. • Partible inheritance. become uneconomical to farm.3 Impacts ■ Increased use of resources • Including non-renewable resources.

noise pollution. ■ Political instability • Increasing competition for decreasing resources. . etc. • Much of the political instability the Third World nations is the result of limited access to resources. • Other siblings are then forced off the land and often migrate to towns and cities. ■ Increases in pollution • Associated with growing populations .water.3 Impacts • Primogeniture is often the norm • Only the oldest son gains access to the family's landholdings. causing overpopulation in urban areas. air.

increasingly difficult access to nature. • Traffic congestion. a sense of personal space. ■ Undermine economic development • Offset the gains that would otherwise be registered through economic development. . etc.3 Impacts ■ Quality of life • A less tangible impact.