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BUSINESS B8

Emerging Trends and Technologies

Learning Outcomes
1. Identify the trends that will have the greatest

impact on future business
2. Identify the technologies that will have the

greatest impact on future business
3. Explain why understanding trends and new

technologies can help an organization prepare for the future

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Introduction  Obtaining a broad view of emerging trends and new technologies as they relate to business can help an organization anticipate and prepare for the future  Organizations that can most effectively grasp the deep currents of technological evolution can use their knowledge to protect themselves against sudden and fatal technological obsolescence 3 .

industry.Trends  Trend analysis – the examination of a trend to identify its     nature. or sector are carefully monitored. watched. causes. and reported to key decision makers Trend projection – when numerical data is available a trend can be plotted on graph paper to display changes through time and into the future Computer simulation – complex systems can be modeled by means of mathematical equations and different scenarios can be run against the model to determine “what if” analysis Historical analysis – the study of historical events in order to anticipate the outcome of current developments 4 . speed of development. and potential impacts Trend monitoring – trends viewed as particularly important in a specific community.

Top reasons organizations should study trends 5 .

Trends Shaping Our Future  World’s population will double in the next 40 years  Population in developed countries is living longer  Growth in information industries creates a knowledge-dependent global society  The global economy is becoming more integrated  The economy and society are dominated by technology  Pace of technological innovation is increasing  Time is becoming one of the most precious commodities 6 .

The world’s population will double over the next 40 years Potential business impact:  Global agriculture will be required to supply as much food as has been produced during all of human history to meet needs over the next 40 years  Developed nations will find that retirees will have to remain on the job to remain competitive  Developed nations will begin to increase immigration limits7 .

Population in developed countries is living longer Potential business impact:  Global demand for elderly products and services will grow quickly in the coming decades  The cost of health care is destined to skyrocket  Pharmaceutical companies will be pushed for advances in geriatric medicine 8 .

The growth in information industries is creating a knowledge-dependent global society  83% of American management personnel will be knowledge workers by 2005  A typical large organization in 2010 will have fewer than half the management levels of its counterpart in 1990. and about 1/3 the number of managers Potential business impact:  Top managers must be computer-literate to retain their jobs and achieve success  Knowledge workers are generally higher paid and their proliferation is increasing overall prosperity  Entry-level and unskilled positions are requiring a growing level of education  Information now flows from front-office workers to higher management for analysis  Downsizing. outsourcing. restructuring. and layoffs will continue 9 . reorganization.

The global economy is becoming more integrated  International outsourcing is on the rise  The European Union has relaxed its borders and capital controls  Internet users numbered about 500 million worldwide in 2003. Internet users are growing by 6% monthly Potential business impact:  Demand for personnel in distant countries will increase the need for foreign language training and employee incentives suited to other cultures  E-business and the Internet will reduce the cost of doing business  The Internet will allow small companies to compete with worldwide giants with relatively little investment 10 .

making it possible to reduce prices while improving profits  Demand for scientists. artificial intelligence and expert systems will help most companies and government agencies assimilate data and solve problems beyond the range of today’s computers  Personal robots will appear in the home by 2010 Potential business impact:  New technologies provide dozens of new opportunities to create businesses and jobs  Automation will continue to decrease the cost of products and services.The economy and society are dominated by technology  Computers are becoming a part of our environment  By 2007. and technicians will continue to grow 11 . engineers.

or taken for granted by their senior year  All of today’s technical knowledge will represent only 1 percent of the knowledge that will be available in 2050 Potential business impact:  Shortened time-to-market for products and services  Tighter competition based on new technologies 12 .Pace of technological innovation is increasing  Medical knowledge is doubling every eight years  50% of what students learn in their freshman year of college is obsolete. revised.

evaporates 13 . such as shopping at a mall. workers spend 10% more time on the job than they did a decade ago  European executives and nonunionized workers face the same trend  This high-pressured environment is increasing the need for any product or service that saves time or simplifies life Potential business impact:  Companies must take an active role in helping their employees balance their work and lives  Stress-related problems affecting employee morale and wellness will continue to grow  Use of the Internet will continue to grow as the time to perform activities.Time is becoming one of the world’s most precious commodities  U.S.

The following technologies have the potential to change our future  Digital ink  Digital paper  Radio frequency identification (RFID)  Teleliving  Alternative energy sources  Autonomic computing 14 .

Digital Ink (or Electronic Ink) refers to technology that digitally represents handwriting in its natural form  Digital ink can be used in many applications:  Point-of-sale signs  Next generation displays in mobile devices and PDAs  Thin. anywhere 15 . portable electronic books and newspapers  RadioPaper – dynamic high-resolution electronic display that combines a paperlike reading experience with the ability to access information anytime.

and books  Reusable paper is an environmentally sound idea 16 . magazines.Digital Paper (or Electronic Paper) any paper that is optimized for any type of digital printing  The major difference between paper produced from a tree and paper produced in a laboratory is that information on a digital paper sheet can be altered thousands of times and not degrade over time Potential business impact:  Paperlike displays will replace newspapers.

Digital Paper .

and future . present.Digital ink and digital paper past.

Radio frequency identification (RFID)  RFID – uses active or passive tags in the form of chips or smart labels that can store unique identifiers and relay this information to electronic readers  RFID systems are automated. reducing the need for manual scanning. such as required with a bar code Potential business impact:  Reduces the labor required to monitor goods movement and inventory flow through a supply chain  Allows manufacturers and retailers to complement existing systems while gathering more information  Provides complete supply chain visibility without the prohibitive labor costs and error rates associated with a manual system  RFID helps enforce security by conducting automatic inventory counts 19 .

Comparison of bar code labeling to RFID .

akin to its partnership with CheckFree.Closing Case One: Mail with PostalOne   United States Postal Service’s (USPS) productivity has grown by only 11 percent over the past three decades USPS is pursuing several e-business projects to help increase growth including:  NetPost Mailing Online  Post Electronic Courier Service  NetPost.Certified  EBillPay Do you think the USPS’s steps are far-reaching enough to ensure its relevance in e-business? What other strategic alliances. 3. can the Postal Service develop to stay competitive? Why would the USPS compete in a market that private companies already serve well? 21 1. 2. .

playing. learning. VAs will mimic real assistants helping individuals solve problems  Robotic salespeople will take on human appearances and perform all tasks associated with a sales job 22 . messages. faxes. and phone calls. healing. four billion chips are embedded in everything from coffee makers to Cadillacs Potential business impact  In the future. working.Teleliving  Teleliving – refers to using information devices and the Internet to conduct all aspects of life seamlessly  Includes shopping. and even praying  Each year. people will move through a constant stream of information summoned at the touch of a finger  Virtual assistant (VA) – a small program stored on a PC or portable device that monitors e-mails.

solar. hydroelectric. and other alternative energy sources will account for 30 percent of all energy use  By 2010 nuclear plants will supply 16% of Russia and eastern Europe’s energy Potential business impact:  China. India. geothermal.Alternative Energy Sources  Wind. and Russia are modernizing their economies. South America. which increases their needs for energy  Cost of alternative energy sources is decreasing  Deregulation of the energy industry is expected to increase innovation and foster a wide variety of new energy sources  Oil will remain the world’s most important energy source 23 .

Autonomic Computing  Autonomic computing – a self-managing computing model named after. storage. network management. the human body’s autonomic nervous system Potential business impact:  Autonomic computing will be used in complex IT infrastructures for security. and patterned on. and redundancy/failover  Computers will monitor components and fine-tune workflows  Autonomic computers will be able to “self-heal”  Autonomic computers will be able to “self-protect” 24 .

Autonomic Computing .