Kkchap 1

khushnoorkhan64@yahoo.
com
Chapter 1
The Nature of Probability and Statistics
Chapter 1: Objectives
1-1 Descriptive and Inferential Statistics 1-2 Variables and Types of Data 1-3 Data Collection & Sampling
L e c L e c
Techniques
1-4 Observational and Experimental Studies
2
L e c
1-5 Soft wares and Specialized Calculators

khushnoorkhan64@yahoo.com
Introduction
Statistics is the science of conducting studies to collect, organize, summarize, analyze, and draw conclusions from data .
Introduction
Probability
Deals with creating models and theoretical data
Statistics
Deals with applying models on real data
Probability is the chance of an event occurring
Basic definitions
A variable is a characteristic or attribute that can assume different values The values that a variable can assume are called data .
A population consists of all subjects ( human or otherwise) that are studied
A sample is a subset of the population.
Basic definitions
variables
datum
Age 23 24 25
Weight 65lbs 70lbs 67lbs Data

Height 62inches 65inches 60inches
Basic definitions
Population Sample
Branches of Statistics
Descriptive statistics Inferential statistics
Descriptive statistics .
Data presentation
Tabular Graphical
consists of the collection, organization, summarization, and presentation of data.
TOPICS
mean, median , mode , range, Standard deviation etc, etc
Inferential statistics consists of:
1.generalizing from samples to populations,
Inferential
Descriptive
2.performing estimations and hypothesis tests(usage of probability)

( ) Examples:
New drug will reduce the number of heart attacks in men over 70 years of age. 2. Drinking coffee can raise cholesterol levels by 7%
1.
3.determining relationships among variables, and making predictions

Common Topics (Correlation and Regression)
Examples:
1. 2. 3. 4.
Smoking causes cancer Tall parents have tall children Advertising increases sales Production of cars in 2015
Questions
1. The group of all subjects understudy is called a sample population 2. A group selected from the group of all subjects understudy is called a sample population 3. Nine out of ten employees are men which branch of Statistics is used? Descriptive Inferential 4. Average height of 100 students of KAU is used as an estimate for the average height for all students of KAU which branch of Statistics is used? Descriptive Inferential
Questions
5. Probability is used as a basis for inferential statistics True False 6. The total amount of estimated losses from floods in Jeddah in 2010 was SAR 2 billion. Descriptive Inferential 7. In 2015, the number of students enrolled in KAU will be 23000. Descriptive Inferential 8. Fruits and vegetables lower blood pressure Descriptive Inferential 9. The average salary of an employee in Hyper panda is SAR 2000. Descriptive Inferential
Variables and Types of Data

Data
Qualitative
(categorical) Quantitative (numerical values)
Discrete (countable) Levels of measurement Continuous (can have decimals)
Levels of measurement
nominal
ordinal
interval
ratio
Variables & Types of Data
Levels of Measurement
1. 2.
Nominal categorical (names)

Ordinal nominal, plus can be ranked (order) Interval ordinal, plus intervals are consistent (temperature )
q u a l i t a t i v e q u a n t i t a t i v e
3.
4.
Ratio interval, plus ratios are consistent, true zero (height,weight,age,salary,time,age)


Qualitative
Can be placed into distinct
Quantitative/scale
Are numerical in nature and can be ordered or ranked
Age , Height, Weight ,Salary, Blood pressure, Temperature, Number of rooms, Number of students.
categories according to
some characteristic or attribute.
Gender, Blood Group, Grades, Nationality , Car Numbers Color, University Numbers Religion , Marital Status , Habits.
Qualitative Level of measurement Nominal Ordinal

Classifies data into categories that cannot be ordered or ranked.
Gender, Blood Group, Nationality , Car Numbers Color, University Numbers Religion , Marital Status , Departments in a College, Zip codes, Habits
Classifies data into categories that can be ordered or ranked.

Grades(A,B,C,D,E,F) Qualification level,
Position of runners(first ,second , third)
Rating of a TV drama(good/bad), Stages of a disease (mild , moderate , severe) Rating of a Hotel( , , )
Quantitative Discrete Continuous

Assume values that can be counted
Number of students in a class Number of rooms in a house Number of accidents Number of CDs rented Assume any value between any two specific points (decimals are included)

Heights, Weights , Age, Temperature, Salary, Lifetime ,Speed, Time, Attendance
Examples Nominal Variables()

Gender Eye Color Zip codes Jeddah 21589 Jeddah 24212 Blood Group
Types
Car Numbers Nationality Religion Skin Color
Examples Ordinal Variables()

Qualification
grades
ranking of players
stages of disease
Examples Discrete Variables( interval/ratio)

Number of students in a class Number of CDs rented Number of rooms in a house
Number
Number of accidents
Examples Continuous Variables( interval/ratio)

Heights Weights Temperature
Salary
Speed
Attendance
Identify each as qualitative or quantitative

Hair color of children Number of traffic signals in Jeddah Number of defective spare parts Number of questions answered correctly Length of time to answer a phone call. Name of the car Classification of students on the basis of subjects Marital status of an employee A person infected by high blood pressure.
Identify each on the basis of level of measurement

Length of time required to solve a question Number of persons in a house. Distance from your house to K.A.U. Number of pages printed by a printer. Kind of car that you have. Do you like PEPSI How many PEPSIs you take in a day. Rankings of tennis players Movie ratings Temperature inside a room
Determine the measurement level

measurement levels
Variable Hair Color Zip Code Letter Grade Nominal Ordinal Interval Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Ratio Level Nominal Nominal Ordinal
ACT Score
Height Age Temperature (F)
Yes
Yes Yes Yes
Yes
Yes Yes Yes
Yes
Yes Yes Yes
No
Yes Yes No
Interval
Ratio Ratio Interval
Collection of Data
Collection of Data Complete enumeration Surveys
All persons included Some persons included
Surveys are the most common method of collecting data

Surveys
Three common methods of survey are: 1. Telephone Surveys / 2. Mailed questionnaire surveys 3. Personal interviews
Sampling Techniques
How the sample is selected for survey?

Some Sampling Techniques Random random number generator Stratified divide population into layers Cluster use intact groups Systematic every kth subject
Sampling Techniques
1.
Simple Random Sample

2. Stratified Random Sample 3. Cluster Random Sample
4. Systematic Random Sample

Simple Random Sample()

1. Number each subject in the population. 2. Generate random numbers with a computer or a calculator.
1. 2. 3. 4. Example: There are twelve persons Number the persons Now population consists of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 Use calculator to draw a random sample of four persons e.g 2,5,8,10
Every person has an equal chance of being selected in the sample

Stratified Random Sample()

1.
Divide the population into groups called STRATA according to some characteristic.

2.
Selecting a random sample from each group or STRATA.

Note: We do not select the whole strata but a sample from every strata
Stratified Random Sample()

1.Dividing population into strata

do not select the whole strata but a sample from each strata
2.Selecting a random sample from each strata
Population ABB CBCACBC BAAC B CA CBCACBB CCABCCA ABCABCA BAAC C B B CACBBB
Strata AAAAAAA AAAAAAA
Random Sample
AAAAA
BBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBB
CCCCCCCCC CCCCCCCCC C
BBBB CCC
Cluster Random Sample ()
1.Population is divided into groups called clusters.
2. Randomly select some clusters.

3. Select all members of the selected clusters.

) ( Cluster Random Sample

Population ABB CBCACBC BAAC B CA CBCACBB CCABCCA ABCABCA BAAC C B B CACBBB
Clusters ABB CBCACBC BAAC B CA CBCACBB CCABCCA ABCABCA BAAC C B B C ACBB B

SAMPLE CABB CCAB BBB
Systematic Random Sample()

Systematic Sample 1. Number each person in the population. 2. Divide the population with the sample size, we get K.
k
select the 1st person from the first K persons. ( K 1 ) 4. then selecting every kth person.
3. Randomly
" Kth
Example:
1. 2. 3.
There are 12 persons. Number the persons. Population consists of : 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12.
4. We need a sample of 3 persons. 5. So K = 12/3 =
6. Select a person randomly from the first 4 persons suppose it is number 2. 7. Then selecting every 4th person after that.
8. So our sample will consist of persons
2,6 &10

4. We need a sample of 3 persons. 5. So K = 12/3 = 4
6. Select one person randomly from the first k = 4 persons.
Suppose the 1st person chosen is 2.
2 + k(4 )= 6
So our sample is 2 ,6,10

6 + k(4 )= 10
Questions
Identify the sampling technique
1.
2.
3.
4.
In Jeddah, all teachers from 2 schools selected from each district ) ( are interviewed. Factory workers are selected using random numbers . Every 25th is checked to observe its cleanliness. A group of students from all faculties of K.A.U are chosen for a project.
Questions
5. Traffic police checks the documents of every 30th car. 6. Group of students from different semesters of faculty of science are chosen to be tested for an English Language Test. 7. All doctors from 5 hospitals selected at random from Riyadh city are interviewed. 8. Supervisor inspects every 10th item from an assembly line to test for defects.
Questions
9. If every 7th customer entering a shopping mall is asked to select his favorite store. 10. If a company is divided into sections and a random sample from the sections is chosen and all the employees within the chosen section are surveyed. 11. 100 students are selected randomly from 1000 students using a computer random generation process.
Observational Studies
In an observational study , the researcher merely observes and tries to draw conclusions based on the observations. Example: Observing the number of patients recovering from a disease :
Observational Studies
Example:
A researcher stood at a busy intersection to see if the color of the car that a person drives is related to running red lights
Example:
A researcher observes that people with short height are more active than people with long height )height?..activeness?( .
Experimental Studies
In an experimental study , the researcher manipulates one of the variables and tries to determine how the manipulation influences the other variables. Example: When dealing with patients for testing a drug. Noting the number of patients who have recovered after taking this drug.
Experimental Studies
Example:
Students were randomly assigned to two groups , and one group was taught by lecture method and the other group with
the help of audio/visual aids /
After one semester the marks/grades of each group were compared.
)Teaching methods. Grades(
Variables in Observational & Experimental studies

Statistical studies usually include one or more independent variables and one dependent variable.

Independent Variable: is the one that is being manipulated by the researcher. Also called an Explanatory variable. ) ( Dependent Variable: is the resultant variable. Also called an Outcome variable.
Experimental Studies Growth of plant is effected by Sunlight

dependent variable independent variable
The researcher can only manipulate with the independent variable for example he can: put the plant under the shade, or put the plant in a ground

and then examine the growth of the plant under both the conditions . khushnoorkhan64@yahoo.com
Observational and Experimental Studies
A confounding variable
influences the dependent variable but cannot be separated from the independent variable
confounding variable
Income
+
+
savings
Income
savings
debt
Questions
In an experimental study the variable that is manipulated by the researcher is 2. An independent variable is also called 3. A researcher stood at a busy intersection to see if the color of the car is related to running red light. )study is. & car color is.( 4. A study that involves no research manipulation is called .study.
1.
Questions
5. Students were divided into two groups .One
group was taught by slides method and the other by lecture method. After one semester there exam marks were compared. It is study & teaching method is . Variable 6. A variable that interferes with other variables in the study is called .. 7. A variable that has influence on the dependent variable but cannot be separated by the independent variable is called ..
Questions
8. If a researcher would like to determine the
effect of three methods of teaching. 9. If a researcher would like to compare the effectiveness of three types of medicines. 10. In a study it has been reported that a diet high in fruits and vegetables will lower blood pressure. The dependent variable is .. & independent variable is
1-5 Uses and Misuses of Statistics
Suspect Samples
Is
the sample large enough?

was the sample selected?
How Is
the sample representative of the population?
Ambiguous Averages
What
particular measure of average was used and why?

Changing the Subject

Are
different values used to represent the same data?

third fewer calories.than what?
Detached Statistics
One
Implied Connections
Studies
suggest that some people may understand what this statement means.
Misleading Graphs
Are
the scales for the x-axis and y-axis appropriate for the data?
you feel that statistics teachers should be paid higher salaries? you favor increasing tuition so that colleges can pay statistics teachers higher salaries?
Faulty Survey Questions

Do Do
Soft wares & Calculators

Microsoft
MS
Excel
Excel with Mega Stat
TI-83/84
Minitab
SAS
SPSS
Correct answer
Click to proceed
Incorrect answer
Try again

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khushnoorkhan64@yahoo.

The Nature of Probability and Statistics

1-5 Soft wares and Specialized Calculators

Probability is the chance of an event occurring

Weight 65lbs 70lbs 67lbs Data

Height 62inches 65inches 60inches

consists of the collection, organization, summarization, and presentation of data.

2.performing estimations and hypothesis tests(usage of probability)

3.determining relationships among variables, and making predictions

Variables and Types of Data

Variables & Types of Data

Nominal categorical (names)

Ratio interval, plus ratios are consistent, true zero (height,weight,age,salary,time,age)

Variables & Types of Data

Variables & Types of Data

Variables & Types of Data

Qualitative Level of measurement Nominal Ordinal

Classifies data into categories that can be ordered or ranked.

Rating of a TV drama(good/bad), Stages of a disease (mild , moderate , severe) Rating of a Hotel( , , )

Variables & Types of Data

Quantitative Discrete Continuous

Examples Nominal Variables()

Examples Ordinal Variables()

Examples Discrete Variables( interval/ratio)

Examples Continuous Variables( interval/ratio)

Identify each as qualitative or quantitative

Identify each on the basis of level of measurement

Determine the measurement level

Surveys are the most common method of collecting data

Simple Random Sample

2. Stratified Random Sample 3. Cluster Random Sample

4. Systematic Random Sample

Simple Random Sample()

Every person has an equal chance of being selected in the sample

Stratified Random Sample()

Selecting a random sample from each group or STRATA.

Stratified Random Sample()

1.Dividing population into strata

2.Selecting a random sample from each strata

Population ABB CBCACBC BAAC B CA CBCACBB CCABCCA ABCABCA BAAC C B B CACBBB

Strata AAAAAAA AAAAAAA

Cluster Random Sample ()

1.Population is divided into groups called clusters.

2. Randomly select some clusters.

3. Select all members of the selected clusters.

) ( Cluster Random Sample

Population ABB CBCACBC BAAC B CA CBCACBB CCABCCA ABCABCA BAAC C B B CACBBB

Clusters ABB CBCACBC BAAC B CA CBCACBB CCABCCA ABCABCA BAAC C B B C ACBB B

Systematic Random Sample()

Systematic Random Sample()

There are 12 persons. Number the persons. Population consists of : 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12.

4. We need a sample of 3 persons. 5. So K = 12/3 =

Systematic Random Sample()

6. Select one person randomly from the first k = 4 persons.

Suppose the 1st person chosen is 2.

So our sample is 2 ,6,10

After one semester the marks/grades of each group were compared.

)Teaching methods. Grades(

Variables in Observational & Experimental studies

Experimental Studies Growth of plant is effected by Sunlight

Observational and Experimental Studies

1-5 Uses and Misuses of Statistics

the sample large enough?