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Probability Theory

• 3.1 - Basic Definitions and Properties • 3.2 - Conditional Probability and Independence • 3.3 - Bayes’ Formula • 3.4 - Applications (biomedical)

POPULATION

Random variable X

Probability Table

Probability Histogram

… at least if X is discrete. (Chapter 4)

Frequency Table

Data x1 x2 x6 Relative Frequencies

Density Histogram

xi

x3 x4

f (xi ) = fi /n f (x1)

Total Area = 1

x1

…etc…. x5 xn

x2

x3 ⋮ xk

f (x2)

f (x3) ⋮ f (xk) 1

X

SAMPLE of size n

2 s 2 nn ( x x ) f (x) 1

x x f (x)

2

POPULATION

Definitions

(using basic Set Theory)

• An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. S = {Red, Orange, Yellow, Green, Blue} Venn Diagram

Red

Yellow Orange

#(S) = 5

Consider the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population, and record its color.

E

Green Blue

• Event Any subset of S (including the empty set , and S itself). E = “Primary Color” = {Red, Yellow, Blue} #(E) = 3 ways

Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue

3

POPULATION

Definitions

(using basic Set Theory)

• An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. S = {Red, Orange, Yellow, Green, Blue}. Venn Diagram

Red

Yellow Orange

#(S) = 5

F

Consider the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population, and record its color.

Green

Blue

• Event Any subset of S (including the empty set , and S itself). E = “Primary Color” = {Red, Yellow, Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red, Orange, Yellow} #(E) = 3 ways #(F) = 3 ways

Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue

4

Yellow. S = {Red.POPULATION Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Blue}. and record its color. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange #(S) = 5 F Consider the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Orange. and S itself). Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . Yellow} #(E) = 3 ways #(F) = 3 ways Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. Orange. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Blue} #(FC) = 2 ways 5 . Green. Yellow.

and record its color. Yellow. Yellow. Blue}. • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.POPULATION Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . and S itself). Yellow} #(E) = 3 ways #(F) = 3 ways Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. Blue} #(FC) = 2 ways 6 . Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange #(S) = 5 F Consider the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Orange. Green. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. Orange. S = {Red.

Yellow. and S itself). Yellow} #(E) = 3 ways #(F) = 3 ways Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. and record its color. • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . E = “Primary Color” = {Red. Orange. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange #(S) = 5 F Consider the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population.POPULATION Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Yellow. Orange. S = {Red. Blue}. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. Green. Yellow} 7 . Blue} #(FC) = 2 ways Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red.

Blue}.POPULATION Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Orange. Yellow} #(E) = 3 ways #(F) = 3 ways Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange #(S) = 5 F Consider the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Orange. Yellow} #(E ⋂ F) = 2 8 . • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Yellow. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. Blue} #(FC) = 2 ways Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. and S itself). and record its color. Yellow. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . S = {Red. Green.

and record its color. S = {Red. or mutually exclusive events 9 . Orange. Venn Diagram A Red Yellow #(S) = 5 B Orange Consider the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Yellow.POPULATION Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. Blue} = A and B are disjoint. Yellow} #(E ⋂ F) = 2 Note: A = {Red. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. Orange. Blue}. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . Green. • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Yellow. Yellow} #(E) = 3 ways #(F) = 3 ways Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. and S itself). Blue} #(FC) = 2 ways Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red.

Yellow} #(E) = 3 ways #(F) = 3 ways Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. S = {Red. Blue} #(FC) = 2 ways Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. Yellow. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange #(S) = 5 F Consider the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Orange. Blue} = A and B are disjoint. or mutually exclusive events “E or F” = 10 . Yellow. Yellow} #(E ⋂ F) = 2 Note: A = {Red. Blue}.POPULATION Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. and record its color. and S itself). Green. Orange. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . E = “Primary Color” = {Red.

E = “Primary Color” = {Red. Blue}. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F” = {Red. Orange. Yellow. Blue} 11 #(E ⋃ F) = 4 . Blue} #(FC) = 2 ways Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red.POPULATION Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Orange. Blue} = A and B are disjoint. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange #(S) = 5 F Consider the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. Green. Orange. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . Yellow} #(E) = 3 ways #(F) = 3 ways Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. Yellow} #(E ⋂ F) = 2 Note: A = {Red. and S itself). S = {Red. Yellow. Yellow. and record its color.

for any two events A and B. there are 4 disjoint intersections: A A ⋂ Bc “A only” A⋂B “A and B” Ac ⋂ B “B only” B Ac ⋂ Bc “Neither A nor B” DeMorgan’s Laws (A ⋃ B)c = Ac ⋂ Bc A B “Not (A or B)” = “Not A” and “Not B” = “Neither A nor B” (A ⋂ B)c = Ac ⋃ Bc “Not (A and B)” = “Not A” or “Not B” A B 12 .In general.

Orange. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. and record its color. Blue} 13 #(E ⋃ F) = 4 . Blue} #(FC) = 2 ways Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. Yellow} Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. Orange. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . Blue} #(E) = 3 ways #(F) = 3 ways Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue What about probability of outcomes? F = “Hot Color” = {Red. • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Yellow. Blue}. and S itself). Yellow. S = {Red. Green. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. Yellow. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F” = {Red. Orange.POPULATION Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange #(S) = 5 F Consider the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Blue} = A and B are disjoint. Yellow} #(E ⋂ F) = 2 Note: A = {Red.

POPULATION (Pie Chart) POPULATION Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Blue} happens to this “long run” P(Red) = 0.00 • Event Any subset of S (including # Red the empty set . and S itself).20 0. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F” = {Red.20 0. and sum = 1. Yellow} #(E ⋂ F) = 2 Note: A = {Red. Blue}. Blue} # trials “The probability of F= Color” = {Red. Orange. E = “Primary Color” = {Red.20 1. Blue} # trials 14 #(E ⋃ F) = 4 All probs are > 0. Orange. Green. .20 0. E Green Blue Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0. Yellow. Yellow.20 0. Yellow. Yellow} Red is equal to“Hot 0. from the and record its population. 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.20 #( FC) = 2 ways relative frequency as # trials → ∞? …… But what does it mean?? Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F“ = {Red. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. record its color. Orange. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange #(S) = 5 F Perform repeated Consider the trialsfollowing of the experiment: following experiment: RandomlyRandomly select an individual select an from individual the population. and color. Blue} = … A and B are disjoint. S = {Red.20” #(E) = 3 ways #(F) = 3 ways “Cold Color” Complement F C = “What Not F” = = {Green.

and S itself). Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F“ = {Red.20 0. Yellow. Yellow. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. Blue} of events? #(FC) = 2 ways P(E) = P(Outcomes in E). = {Green. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red. Blue} = A and B are disjoint. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. Yellow} #(F) = 3 ways General Fact: What about probability “Cold Color” Complement F C = “ Not F ” = event For any E. Yellow.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Yellow} #(E ⋂ F) = 2 Note: A = {Red. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange #(S) = 5 F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set .20 0. and sum = 1. and record its color.20 0. Green. Blue} #(E) = 3 ways Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0. Blue} 15 #(E ⋃ F) = 4 BUT… All probs are > 0.20 1. Orange. Blue}. S = {Red.00 F = “Hot Color” = {Red.20 0. Orange. Orange. .

Yellow} #(E ⋂ F) = 2 likely. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange #(S) = 5 F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population.#(F ) = 2 ways “equally Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F“ = {Red.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Orange. Blue} 16 #(E ⋃ F) = 4 All probs are > 0. P(E) = #(E) / #(S). Yellow. Orange.20 0.20 1. E = “Primary Color” = {Red.20 0. Orange. Green.” Note: A = {Red. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. and sum = 1. Yellow} #(F) = 3 ways These outcomes Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. Yellow. Blue}.20 0. 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Blue} are said When this is the case. and S itself). . Yellow. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . C to be for any event E in the sample space S. S = {Red.20 0. Blue} = A and B are disjoint. and record its color. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red.00 F = “Hot Color” = {Red. Blue} #(E) = 3 ways Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0.

8 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0. Blue} 17 E 4/5 ⋃ F= )= 4 P(E ⋃ F#( )= 0.20 1. 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Orange. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. and sum = 1. Orange.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. and S itself).6 #( F =3/5 3 ways These outcomes Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange #(S) = 5 F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population.20 0. Yellow. and record its color. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set .20 0.4 F )= 2 ways to be “equally Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. S = {Red. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red.6 F = “Hot Color” = {Red. Blue}. Orange.4 E⋂ ⋂FF 2 likely.20 0. Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint. Green.00 All probs are > 0. Yellow. Yellow} P#( (E ) )==0. Blue} are said P(#( FC )C= 2/5 = 0. .” Note: A = {Red. Blue} P #( (E E ))= =3/5 3 ways = 0.20 0. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. Yellow} P (F ))= = 0. Yellow.

E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set .30 1. Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint.6 F = “Hot Color” = {Red.25 0. S = {Red. . Yellow} P(F) = 3/5 = 0.00 All probs are > 0. Blue}. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population.4 to be “equally “equally likely. Blue} P(E) = 3/5 = 0.8 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0.15 0. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange #(S) = 5 F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Green. Yellow} P(E ⋂ F) = 0.20 0.6 These These outcomes outcomes Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. Yellow. Orange.10 0.4 likely. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red.” Note: A = {Red. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Yellow. Orange. and sum = 1. and S itself). and record its color. Orange.20 0. Blue} are said are NOT P(FC) = 2/5 = 0. Blue} 18 P(E ⋃ F) = 4/5 = 0.20 0.20 0. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. Yellow.20 0.” Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red.

Orange.30 1. Green.60 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0.10 0. Yellow} Note: A = {Red. and record its color. . Yellow. and S itself). Orange. Orange.25 0. Blue} 19 All probs are > 0. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . E = “Primary Color” = {Red. Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint.00 Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. Yellow} Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. S = {Red. Yellow. Blue} P(E) = 0. Yellow. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. and sum = 1.15 0. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red. Blue}. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange.20 0.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population.

15 0. . Orange.60 P(F) = 0. Yellow} P(E) = 0. Yellow.10 0. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. Blue} 20 All probs are > 0. Yellow. Yellow. and sum = 1. Yellow} Note: A = {Red.20 0.00 Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . Blue}. Blue} Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. S = {Red. Orange.45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0. and record its color. Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population.30 1. Orange. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange.25 0. Green. and S itself).

Yellow} P(E) = 0.15 0. and S itself). Orange.20 0. Yellow.10 0. Orange. 10% 15% 30% 25% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Blue} P(FC) = 1 – P(F) = 0. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red.60 P(F) = 0.25 0. Yellow} Note: A = {Red. Blue}.45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0. and record its color. Orange.00 Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. Yellow. .30 1. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. S = {Red. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red. and sum = 1.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Green. Blue} 21 All probs are > 0. Yellow. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange.55 Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint.

and record its color. and sum = 1. Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint. Blue} 22 All probs are > 0. E = “Primary Color” = {Red.10 0.55 Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red.20 0.15 0.00 Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green.30 1. Blue}. Yellow} P(E) = 0. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red.60 P(F) = 0. S = {Red.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Yellow. Green. Yellow.25 0. Orange. . Yellow} P(E ⋂ F) = 0. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. Blue} P(FC) = 1 – P(F) = 0. Yellow.3 Note: A = {Red. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. and S itself).45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Orange. Orange. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set .

and record its color. Blue} P(FC) = 1 – P(F) = 0. Blue}. Yellow.30 1. and sum = 1.10 0. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red.15 0.45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0.75 All probs are > 0. Green.60 P(F) = 0. Yellow.20 0. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. Yellow} P(E) = 0. and S itself). Orange.00 Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Yellow.25 0. Yellow} P(E ⋂ F) = 0.55 Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint. . Orange. Blue} 23 P(E ⋃ F) = 0. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population.3 Note: A = {Red. S = {Red. Orange.

Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint. and sum = 1. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. Yellow} P(E) = 0. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.30 1. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set .3 Note: A = {Red. S = {Red. Orange. Yellow. and record its color. Yellow} P(E ⋂ F) = 0.15 0. Orange. Blue} P(FC) = 1 – P(F) = 0. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange.00 Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green.25 0.55 Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red.10 0. Yellow. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red. Blue}. Orange.45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0.20 0.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. and S itself). Green. Yellow.75 All probs are > 0. . Blue} 24 P(E ⋃ F) = P(E ⋃ F) = 0.60 P(F) = 0. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red.

20 0.30 1.45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0. Blue} P(FC) = 1 – P(F) = 0. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. Orange. Yellow.25 0. Orange. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. Blue}. and record its color.75 All probs are > 0.10 0.60 P(F) = 0.00 Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green.15 0. Yellow. and S itself). Yellow} P(E) = 0. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red.3 Note: A = {Red. Green. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Orange. S = {Red. . Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Yellow} P(E ⋂ F) = 0. and sum = 1. Yellow. Blue} 25 P(E ⋃ F) = P(E) P(E ⋃ F) = 0.55 Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red.

POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. S = {Red.00 Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. Yellow} P(E) = 0. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. and sum = 1. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . Orange. Yellow.30 1.60 P(F) = 0.10 0.3 Note: A = {Red. Blue} P(FC) = 1 – P(F) = 0.55 Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.15 0.20 0. Yellow.75 All probs are > 0.25 0. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. Green. and S itself). Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint. and record its color. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Blue}. Orange. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red. .45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. Yellow. Yellow} P(E ⋂ F) = 0. Blue} 26 P(E ⋃ F) = P(E) + P(F) P(E ⋃ F) = 0. Orange.

45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0.75 All probs are > 0. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. Orange. S = {Red. Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint. Yellow. Blue} P(E ⋃ F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E ⋂ F) P(E ⋃ F) = 0.15 0. and sum = 1. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population.55 Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. Orange.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.20 0.00 Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red.3 Note: A = {Red. Blue} P(FC) = 1 – P(F) = 0. Blue}. . Yellow.30 1.60 P(F) = 0. and record its color. Yellow} P(E ⋂ F) = 0. Orange. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. Green. Yellow} P(E) = 0. Yellow. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set .25 0. and S itself).10 0.

45 P– (E 0. Yellow} P(E ⋂ F) = 0.60 + 0. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set .75 All probs are > 0. Orange. .60 P(F) = 0. Blue}. and sum = 1.00 Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green. Yellow. E = “Primary Color” = {Red.55 Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. Yellow} P(E) = 0. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red. Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint.25 0. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. Yellow. Green. Blue} P(E ⋃ F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E ⋂ F) = 0.30 ⋃ F) = 0. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red.15 0. Green} ⋂ B = {Orange.3 Note: A = {Red. Yellow. Blue} P(FC) = 1 – P(F) = 0.30 1. and S itself).45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0. S = {Red.10 0.20 0.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Orange. and record its color. Orange. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

Blue} = P() = 0 A and B are disjoint. E = “Primary Color” = {Red.60 + 0. and record its color.00 Complement F C = “Not F” = “Cold Color” = {Green.20 0. or mutually exclusive events Union E ⋃ F = “E or F“ = {Red.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population.25 0.60 P(F) = 0. Yellow} P(E ⋂ F) = 0. Orange.3 Note: A = {Red.15 0. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population. and sum = 1. Orange. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.45 P– (E 0. Blue}.30 ⋃ F) = 0. Blue} P(E ⋃ F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E ⋂ F) = 0. Green. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. Yellow. .55 Intersection E ⋂ F = “E and F” = {Red. Blue} P(FC) = 1 – P(F) = 0. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . Green} ⋂ B = {Orange. Yellow. Yellow} P(E) = 0.75 All probs are > 0. Yellow.30 1.10 0. and S itself). Orange. S = {Red.45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0.

there are 4 disjoint intersections: If events E and F are disjoint. for any two events A and B. So… P(E ⋃ F) = P(E) + P(F) F E A A ⋂ Bc “A only” B A⋂B “A and B” Ac ⋂ B “B only” Ac ⋂ Bc “Neither A nor B” P(A) = P ( A Probability Table A B) + P(A B P(A ⋂ B) Bc ) BC P(A⋂ BC) P(A) AC P(AC ⋂ B) P(AC ⋂ BC) P(AC) 1. then P(E ⋂ F) = 0.0 P(B) P(E ⋃ F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E ⋂ F) P(BC) .In general.

S = {Red. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . E = “Primary Color” = {Red. and S itself). Green.30 1.10 0. and record its color. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Yellow. Yellow} P(E) = 0.0 All probs are > 0.15 0. Orange. and sum = 1.00 Probability Table F E P(E ⋂ F) EC P(EC ⋂ F) P(F) FC P(E ⋂ FC) P(EC ⋂ FC) P(FC) 1.45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population.20 0. P(E) P(EC) .25 0. Yellow.60 P(F) = 0. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Blue}. Orange.

10 0.60 P(F) = 0.30 1. Blue}. Orange. Yellow.15 0. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. and sum = 1.0 All probs are > 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.45 FC 0.30 EC 0. Venn Diagram Red Yellow Orange F Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population.60 0. Green.55 1. Yellow. E Green Blue • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set .00 Probability Table F E 0.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.30 0.45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0. S = {Red.20 0. and S itself). .15 0. Yellow} P(E) = 0. and record its color. Orange. E = “Primary Color” = {Red.

45 Outcome Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Probability 0.0 All probs are > 0.40 0.45 FC 0. Yellow.25 0. Blue} F = “Hot Color” = {Red. Yellow. Blue}. E = “Primary Color” = {Red. . Yellow} P(E) = 0.30 0.25 0.15 0.15 0. E 0. Green.30 EC 0.00 Probability Table F E 0.25 • Event Any subset of S (including the empty set . Orange.60 0.15 0.55 1.30 1. and sum = 1. and S itself).30 Perform repeated trials of the following experiment: Randomly select an individual from the population.POPULATION (Pie Chart) Definitions (using basic Set Theory) • An outcome is the result of an experiment on a population. Orange. and record its color.10 0.20 0. Venn Diagram 0.30 F 0. S = {Red.60 P(F) = 0. 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 20% 25% 20% 20% 20% • Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

” “Either E occurs. E .” E . E⋂F E⋃F E⊆F C complement of E intersection of E and F union of E and F E is a subset of F 1 – P(E) E P(E) + P(F) – P(E ⋂ F) E F P(E ⋂ F) E F 34 . then P(E) = • If E and F are any two events. (That is. or F occurs (or both). • P(E) = P(outcomes) = always a number between 0 and 1. 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.) • If AND ONLY IF all outcomes in 𝓢 are equally likely.” “Both E and F occur simultaneously. then F occurs.~ Summary of Basic Properties of Probability ~ Population Hypothesis Experiment Sample space 𝓢 of possible outcomes Event E ⊆ 𝓢 Probability P(E) = ? • Def: P(E) = “limiting value” of # times E occurs # trials as experiment is repeated indefinitely.” “If E occurs. then so are the following: Event Description Notation Terminology Probab EC # (outcomes in E ) . # (outcomes in S ) 𝓢 E F Not E E and F E or F “E does not occur.

.e.4 0.5 P(T1 ⋂ T2) = 0.e.2 0.. 20% What percentage receives neither T1 nor T2? P(T1c ⋂ T2c) = 1 – (0.3 + 0. 40% What percentage receives T2 only? (w/o T1) P(T1c ⋂ T2) = 0.3 Column marginal sums 1.5 0.1…. i.2….4….3 = 0.3 T1 T2 T1 Row marginal sums c What percentage receives T1 only? (w/o T2) P(T1 ⋂ T2c) = 0.7 P(T2) = 0..7 – 0.e.3 = 0.1 0.Example: Two treatments exist for a certain disease.0 35 . which can either be taken separately or in combination.4 + 0. i.5 – 0. 10% T2c 0. i.2) = 0. Suppose: T1 T1 ⋂ T2c T1 ⋂ T2 T2 T1c ⋂ T2 70% of patient population receives T1 (w/ or w/o T2) 50% of patient population receives T2 (w/ or w/o T1) 30% of patient population receives both T1 and T2 T1c ⋂ T2c P(T1) = 0.

B. and C… A B A ⋂B C 36 .In general. for three events A.

B. for three events A.In general. and C… A B A ⋂B C 37 .

and C… A A ⋂ Bc ⋂ Cc “A only” A⋂B⋂C A ⋂ Bc ⋂ C Ac ⋂ B ⋂ C B A ⋂ B ⋂ Cc Ac ⋂ B ⋂ Cc “B only” Ac ⋂ Bc ⋂ C Ac ⋂ Bc ⋂ Cc “Neither A nor B nor C” “C only” C 38 .In general. for three events A. B.

and C… A A ⋂ Bc ⋂ Cc “A only” A⋂B⋂C A ⋂ Bc ⋂ C Ac ⋂ B ⋂ C B A ⋂ B ⋂ Cc Ac ⋂ B ⋂ Cc “B only” Ac ⋂ Bc ⋂ C Ac ⋂ Bc ⋂ Cc “Neither A nor B nor C” “C only” “All three events occur” C 39 .In general. for three events A. B.

and C… A A ⋂ Bc ⋂ Cc “A only” A⋂B⋂C A ⋂ Bc ⋂ C Ac ⋂ B ⋂ C B A ⋂ B ⋂ Cc Ac ⋂ B ⋂ Cc “B only” Ac ⋂ Bc ⋂ C Ac ⋂ Bc ⋂ Cc “Neither A nor B nor C” “C only” “Exactly two events occur” C 40 . B. for three events A.In general.

B. for three events A.In general. and C… A A ⋂ Bc ⋂ Cc “A only” A⋂B⋂C A ⋂ Bc ⋂ C Ac ⋂ B ⋂ C B A ⋂ B ⋂ Cc Ac ⋂ B ⋂ Cc “B only” Ac ⋂ Bc ⋂ C Ac ⋂ Bc ⋂ Cc “Neither A nor B nor C” “C only” “At least two events occur” C 41 .

and C… A A ⋂ Bc ⋂ Cc “A only” A⋂B⋂C A ⋂ Bc ⋂ C Ac ⋂ B ⋂ C B A ⋂ B ⋂ Cc Ac ⋂ B ⋂ Cc “B only” Ac ⋂ Bc ⋂ C Ac ⋂ Bc ⋂ Cc “Neither A nor B nor C” “C only” “Exactly one event occurs” C 42 .In general. for three events A. B.

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