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CHAPTER 10

Outline

Introduction to Capital Budgeting Net Present Value The Payback Period Accounting Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return Capital Budgeting in Practice

The Importance of Capital Budgeting

Capital-budgeting decisions are the most important

The goal of these decisions is to select capital

The Importance of Capital Budgeting

Capital investments are important because they

involve substantial cash outlays and, once made, are not easily reversed.

Capital-budgeting techniques help management

to systematically analyze potential business opportunities in order to decide which are worth undertaking.

Sources of Information

Most of the information needed to make capital-

budgeting decisions is generated internally, likely beginning with the sales force.

Then the production team is involved, followed by

the accountants.

All this information is then reviewed by the

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

Classification of Investment Projects

Capital budgeting projects can be broadly classified

into three types. 1. Independent projects 2. Mutually exclusive projects 3. Contingent projects

Classification of Investment Projects 1. Independent Projects

Projects are independent when their cash

flows are unrelated. If two projects are independent, accepting or rejecting one project has no bearing on the decision for the other.

Classification of Investment Projects 2. Mutually Exclusive Projects

When two projects are mutually exclusive,

Mutually exclusive projects typically perform

10

Classification of Investment Projects 3. Contingent Projects

Contingent projects are those where the

There are two types of contingency situations

11

Basic Capital-Budgeting Terms The cost of capital is the minimum return that a capital-budgeting project must earn for it to be accepted.

It is an opportunity cost since it reflects the rate of

Capital rationing implies that a firm does not have

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

12

Basic Capital-Budgeting Terms Capital rationing implies that funding needs exceed funding resources.

Thus, the available capital will be allocated to the

projects that will benefit the firm and its shareholders the most.

13

Net Present Value (NPV)

It is a capital-budgeting technique that is consistent

The method estimates the amount by which the

benefits or cash flows from a project exceeds the cost of the project in present value terms.

14

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Valuation of Real Assets

Valuing real assets calls for the same steps as

Estimate future cash flows.

Calculate the present value of the future

cash flows.

16

Valuation of Real Assets

However, there are some practical difficulties in

First, cash-flow estimates have to be prepared

in house and are not readily available as they for financial assets in legal contracts. Second, estimates of required rates of return are more difficult than estimates of financial assets because no market data is available for real assets.

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

17

NPV The Basic Concept

The present value of a project is the difference

between the present value of the expected future cash flows and the initial cost of the project.

Accepting a positive NPV project leads to an

increase in shareholder wealth, while accepting a negative NPV project leads to a decline in shareholder wealth. Projects that have an NPV equal to zero implies that management will be indifferent between accepting and rejecting the project.

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

18

Framework for Calculating NPV The NPV technique uses the discounted cash flow technique.

Our goal is to compute the net cash flow (NCF)

for each time period t, where: NCFt = (Cash inflows Cash outflows) for the period t

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A five-step approach can be utilized to compute the NPV 1.Determine the cost of the project.

Identify and add up all expenses related to the

cost of the project. While we are mostly looking at projects whose entire cost occurs at the start of the project, we need to recognize that some projects may have costs occurring beyond the first year also. The cash flow in year 0 (NCF0) is negative, indicating a cost.

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

22

A five-step approach can be utilized to compute the NPV 2.Estimate the projects future cash flows over its forecasted life.

Both cash inflows (CIF) and cash outflows

(COF) are likely in each year of the project. Estimate the net cash flow (NCFt) = CIFt COFt for each year of the project.

Remember to recognize any salvage value

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

23

A five-step approach can be utilized to compute the NPV 3.Determine the riskiness of the project and estimate the appropriate cost of capital.

The cost of capital is the discount rate used in

The riskier the project, the higher the cost of

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A five-step approach can be utilized to compute the NPV 4.Compute the projects NPV.

Determine the difference between the present

value of the expected cash flows from the project and the cost of the project. 5. Make a decision. Accept the project if it produces a positive NPV or reject the project if NPV is negative.

25

NPV Equation

n

(10.1)

NCFt

t (1 k) t 0

26

NPV Example Find the net present value of the example in Exhibit 10.3.

$80 $80 $80 $80 $(80 30) NPV -$300 1.15 (1.15)2 (1.15)3 (1.15) 4 (1.15)5 - $300 - $69.58 60.49 52.60 $45.74 $54.69 -$16.91

27

NPV Example - Financial Calculator Solution

Enter Answer

5 15 80 30

PV

-283.09

PMT

FV

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Concluding Comments on NPV

Beware of optimistic estimates of future cash flows. Recognize that the estimates going into calculating

NPV are estimates and not market data. Estimates based on informed judgments are considered acceptable.

The NPV method of determining project viability is

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

30

Concluding Comments on NPV

The NPV decision criteria can be summed up as

follows:

Summary of Net Present Value (NPV) Method Decision Rule: NPV > 0: Accept the project. NPV < 0: Reject the project. Key Advantages Key Disadvantages 1. Uses discounted cash flow Difficult to understand without an valuation technique. accounting and finance background. 2. A direct measure of how much a capital project will increase the value of the firm. 3. Consistent with the goal of maximizing shareholder wealth.

31

The Payback Period It is one of the most widely used tools for evaluating capital projects.

The payback period represents the number of years

it takes for the cash flows from a project to recover the projects initial investment. A project is accepted if its payback period is below some pre-specified threshold. This technique can serve as a risk indicatorthe more quickly you recover the cash, the less risky is the project.

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

32

Computing the Payback Period To compute the payback period, we need to know the projects cost and estimate its future net cash flows.

Equation 10.2 shows how to compute the payback

period.

Remaining cost to recover PB Years before cost recovery (10.2) Cash flow during the year

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Payback Period Example Calculate the payback period for the example in Exhibit 10.5.

$70,000 - $60,000 PB 2 years $20,000 $10,000 2 years $20,000 2 years 0.5 2.5 years

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

35

Computing the Payback Period There is no economic rationale that links the payback method to shareholder wealth maximization.

If a firm has a number of projects that are mutually

exclusive, the projects are selected in order of their payback rank: projects with the lowest payback period are selected first.

36

How the Payback Period Performs The payback period analysis can lead to erroneous decisions because the rule does not consider cash flows after the payback period.

A rapid payback does not necessarily mean a good

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The Discounted Payback Period One of the weaknesses of the ordinary payback period is that it does not take into account the time value of money.

The discounted payback period calculation calls

for the future cash flows to be discounted by the firms cost of capital.

The major advantage of the discounted payback

is that it tells management how long it takes a project to reach a positive NPV.

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

39

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The Discounted Payback Period However, this method still ignores all cash flows after the arbitrary cutoff period, which is a major flaw.

41

Evaluating the Payback Rule The standard payback period is widely used in business.

It provides a simple measure of an investments

liquidity risk. The greatest advantage of the payback period is its simplicity. It ignores the time value of money.

42

Evaluating the Payback Rule It does not adjust or account for differences in the overall, or total, risk for a project, which could include operating, financing, and foreign exchange risk.

The biggest weakness of either the standard or

discounted payback methods is their failure to consider cash flows after the payback.

43

Evaluating the Payback Rule

The table below summarizes this capital-

budgeting technique:

Summary of Payback Method Decision Rule: Payback period Payback cutoff point Accept the project. Payback period > Payback cutoff point Reject the project. Key Advantages Key Disadvantages 1. Easy to calculate and understand 1. Most common version does not for people without strong finance account for time value of money. backgrounds. 2. Does not consider cash flows past 2. A simple measure of a projects the payback period liquidity. 3. Bias against long-term projects such as research and development and new products. 4. Arbitrary cutoff point.

44

The Accounting Rate of Return It is sometimes called the book rate of return.

This method computes the return on a capital

project using accounting numbersthe projects net income (NI) and book value (BV) rather than cash flow data. The most common definition is the one given in the equation below.

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

(10.3)

Copyright 2008 John Wiley & Sons

45

The Accounting Rate of Return It has a number of major flaws as a tool for evaluating capital expenditure decisions. First, the ARR is not a true rate of return. ARR simply gives us a number based on average figures from the income statement and balance sheet. It ignores the time value of money. There is no economic rationale that links a particular acceptance criterion to the goal of maximizing shareholders wealth.

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

46

Internal Rate of Return

The IRR is an important and legitimate

The NPV and IRR techniques are similar in that

47

Internal Rate of Return

When we use the IRR, we are looking for the rate

of return associated with a project so we can determine whether this rate is higher or lower than the firms cost of capital. The IRR is the discount rate that makes the NPV to equal zero.

48

Calculating the IRR The IRR is an expected rate of return, much like the yield to maturity calculation that was made on bonds. We will need to apply the same trial-and-error method to compute the IRR.

49

Exhibit 10.8: Time Line and Cash Flows for Ford Project

50

Calculating the IRR Financial Calculator Solution Find the IRR of the cash flows in Exhibit 10.8 using a financial calculator.

Enter Answer

3 -560 240 0

i

13.7

PV

PMT

FV

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When IRR and NPV Methods Agree The two methods will always agree when the projects are independent and the projects cash flows are conventional. After the initial investment is made (cash outflow), all the cash flows in each future year are positive (inflows).

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When IRR and NPV Methods Disagree The IRR and NPV methods can produce different accept/reject decisions if a project either has unconventional cash flows or the projects are mutually exclusive.

55

Unconventional Cash Flows Unconventional cash flows could follow several different patterns. A positive initial cash flow followed by negative future cash flows.

Future cash flows from a project could include

A cash flow stream that looks similar to a

conventional cash flow stream except for a final negative cash flow.

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

56

Unconventional Cash Flows

In these circumstances, the IRR technique can

provide more than one solution. This makes the result unreliable and should not be used in deciding about accepting or rejecting a project.

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Mutually Exclusive Projects

When you are comparing two mutually exclusive

projects, the NPVs of the two projects will equal each other at a certain discount rate. This point at which the NPVs intersect is called the crossover point. Depending upon whether the required rate of return is above or below this crossover point, the ranking of the projects will be different. While it is easy to identify the superior project based on the NPV, one cannot do this based on the IRR. Thus, ranking conflicts can arise.

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

59

Mutually Exclusive Projects

A second situation involves comparing projects with

different costs. While IRR gives you a return based on the dollar invested, it does not recognize the difference in the size of the investments. NPV does!

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Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)

A major weakness of the IRR compared to the NPV

method is the reinvestment rate assumption. IRR assumes that the cash flows from the project are reinvested at the IRR, while the NPV assumes that they are invested at the firms cost of capital. This optimistic assumption in the IRR method leads to some projects being accepted when they should not be.

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

62

Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)

An alternative technique is the modified internal rate

of return (MIRR). Here, each operating cash flow is reinvested at the firms cost of capital.

The compounded values are summed up to get

The MIRR is the interest rate which equates the

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

63

Equation 10.5 shows how to calculate the MIRR.

(10.5)

64

MIRR example

Calculate the MIRR of the project described in Exhibit 10.8. TV = $240(1.12)2 + $240(1.12) + $240 = $809.86 $809.86 $560 = (1+MIRR)3 $809.86 3 (1+MIRR) = = 1.4462 $560

(1+MIRR) = = 1.1309 MIRR = 0.1309,or 13.09% 65

1 (1.4462) 3

IRR versus NPV: A Final Comment

While the IRR has an intuitive appeal to managers

because of the output being in the form of a return, the technique has some critical problems.

On the other hand, decisions made based on the

projects NPV are consistent with goal of shareholder wealth maximization. In addition, the result shows the management the dollar amount by which each project is expected to increase the value of the firm.

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

66

IRR versus NPV: A Final Comment For these reasons, the NPV method should be used to make capital-budgeting decisions.

The table below summarizes the IRR decision-

making criteria:

Decision Rule: IRR > Cost of capital Accept the project. IRR < Cost of capital Reject the project. Key Advantages Key Disadvantages (1) intuitively easy to understand (1) with nonconventional cash flows, IRR (2) based on discounted cash flow generates no or multiple answers technique (2) with mutually exclusive projects, IRR may provide incorrect investment decisions

67

Practitioners Methods of Choice Exhibit 10.12 summarizes surveys of practitioners on the capital-budgeting methods of choice.

There has been significant changes in the

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Practitioners Methods of Choice

Now, there is better alignment between practitioners

Many financial managers use multiple capital

budgeting tools.

70

Ongoing and Post-audit Reviews

Management should systematically review the status

of all ongoing capital projects and perform postaudits on all completed capital projects.

In a post-audit review, management compares the

actual results of a project with what was projected in the capital-budgeting proposal. A post-audit examination would determine why the project failed to achieve its expected financial goals.

Chapter 10 The Fundamentals of Capital Budgeting

71

Ongoing and Post-audit Reviews

Managers should also conduct ongoing reviews of

capital projects in progress. The review should challenge the business plan, including the cash flow projections and the operating cost assumptions. Management must also evaluate people responsible for implementing a capital project.

72

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