CC 6290 China and Southeast Asia: Politics, Economics and Regional Order PRESENTATION

China is seeking to expand its regional role and influence in line with its historical attitude towards its frontiers, China’s goals might be ‘defensive’ in order to create a buffer against external influence, including United States ? China is deliberately creating a sphere of influence in its backyard in which it will be the dominant power ? Discuss the peaceful rise or peaceful development of China in light of the two statements.

BACKGROUND CHINA ASEAN CENTRAL & NE ASIA AFRICA CONCLUSION

BACKGROUND CHINA ASEAN CENTRAL & NE ASIA AFRICA CONCLUSION

ORIGINS
A New Path for China’s Peaceful Rise and the Future of Asia Zheng Bijian (Vice President of the Central Party School of CPP) Premier Wen Jiabao President Hu Jintao 2003 Visit France Regular meetings of Political Bureau 2003 Visit United States

OBJECTIVES

Counter China Threat theories Emphasize China’s peaceful way in emerging as a world power

IS
Opportunities Status Quo Prosperity and progression

IS NOT
Threats Change Instability or regression

CHANGE OF WORDING
DEVELOPMENT replaces RISE ‘rise’ evokes apprehension among China’s neighbors and strategic competitors A sign of China’s sensitivity towards its international audience

IDEOLOGY
Confucian pluralistic world view : Harmony in diversity (he’er butong) China as a rising power will not seek to challenge the US hegemonic position, despite it will continue to practice its own style of socialism keep on peaceful development road thro diplomacy and internal policy

BACKGROUND CHINA ASEAN CENTRAL & NE ASIA AFRICA CONCLUSION

CHINA

HISTORICAL ATTITUDE

HISTORICAL ATTITUDE
Tributary States / Vassal states / Sinocentrism
   

In pre-modern times Viewing China as the only civilization in the world Foreign nations or ethnic groups as "barbarians“ Tribute for China : Symbolic Recognition and reinforcement

"The Emperor of the land where the sun rises sends a letter to the Emperor of the land where the sun sets to ask if you are healthy?“ ( 日出處天子致書日沒處天子無恙云云 ) Year 581 – 618, Sui Dynasty

Hu Jintao

Sorry, no more apology

China’s Economic Growth 19812005

China’s Economic Growth 2006

World Economic Forecast 2005 2008

PROJECTED TOTAL GDP OF US, JAPAN & CHINA 2005 – 2050
Measured in Nominal Dollars

Assumed Average Growth Followed the trend 1980 - 2005

GDP per person

PROJECTED GDP per HEAD OF CHINA as % of US’s 2005 – 2050
Measured in Nominal Dollars

Assumed GDP and Population Followed the trend 1980 - 2005

A LITTLE SUMMARY
Regional Power: YES Weakness: Still 10 years behind modernization Pragmatic way to go

BACKGROUND CHINA ASEAN CENTRAL & NE ASIA AFRICA CONCLUSION

Good Neighborliness policy: ASEAN
Friendliness and companionship to neighbors Calming, enriching and befriending
“The 10-Nation ASEAN will help the Association to play a bigger role in the international and regional affairs. Meanwhile, we believe the enlargement of the ASEAN will benefit the long-term peace and stability of Asia, which is in accordance the trend of global multi-polarization.” Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Wang Yi , 1999

Trade & Finance
Trade between China & ASEAN (US $)

1997 2003

25.4 billion 78.3 billion

“After work began on the Sino-ASEAN free trade zone on July 20 last year, leading to tariff reductions for approximately 7,000 categories of goods, China and ASEAN have entered a new stage in terms of economic cooperation and trade ties.” Yi Xiaozhun, Vice minister of Commerce of PRC

2005 130.4 billion

Trade & Finance
US$1 billion in financial assistance to Thailand US$4-6 billion for the IMF programme to support SEA

ACFTA / CAFTA 2010

Politics and Security
Lots of Documents and Paperssssss • Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in South China Sea • Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia • Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership: Political security, economic, cultural, regional and international cooperation • Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity • Protocol to the Treaty on Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (Coming Soon)

A Little Summary

ASEAN : vital diplomatic space for China China will make strong efforts to maintain good relations with ASEAN, a showcase to the world (Zheng) Calculative strategy

BACKGROUND CHINA ASEAN CENTRAL & NE ASIA AFRICA CONCLUSION

Security and Stability : Central and Northeast Asia
Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member countries:  China  Kazakhstan  Kyrgyzstan  Russia  Tajikistan  Uzbekistan Observer Countries:  India  Iran  Mongolia  Pakistan

Six Party Talk : North Korea

Six Party Talk : North Korea

The two things China fears the most are a North Korean collapse and another war on the Korean peninsula – BBC The best situation for China is a relatively obeying North Korean regime which would continue to survive

BACKGROUND CHINA ASEAN CENTRAL & NE ASIA AFRICA CONCLUSION

Histories
“China's development is peaceful, open, cooperative and harmonious in nature. We aim to build a harmonious society at home, and work with other countries to build a harmonious world of enduring peace and common prosperity …more than 100 years in China's modern history, the Chinese people were subjected to colonial aggression and oppression by foreign powers and went through similar suffering and agony that the majority of African countries endure. “ Chinese President Hu Jintao At University of Pretoria on February Africa’s visit

Casino Royale Director: Stanley Ho

Kung Fu II Director: Stephen Chow

China’s oil consumption

China’s Attitude
China has used its veto at the UN Security Council to block moves to impose sanctions on Sudan unless it stops the fighting in Darfur. Mr Hu had urged the Sudan Government "to work more earnestly to get the rebels who did not sign the Darfur peace agreement to join the process". He said that Mr Hu stressed to Mr Bashir: "You have to resolve this problem. “respect the sovereignty of Sudan," while writing off debts and providing an interest-free loan to build a new presidential palace.

International Responses
There have been some mixed signals, obviously," said U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack in Washington "There is a big role for China," said a British Foreign Office official. "It has huge influence in Sudan. It has been helpful so far but we have urged it, through prime ministerial and other high level contacts, to do more. We want it to press Sudan not to carry out further bombing in Darfur and to play its part in renewing the political process and helping the expansion of the peacekeeping force."

African Reaction
Among Africans, the concerns about rising Chinese clout are more often economic. Textile mills from Nigeria to South Africa have closed amid a flood of inexpensive Chinese imports. Chinese purchases of mining concessions have stirred nationalist backlashes.

BACKGROUND CHINA ASEAN CENTRAL & NE ASIA AFRICA CONCLUSION

International and Internal Environment
Terrorism Nuclear Proliferation Oil & Gas Fields between China and Japan HIstoriesssss of Sino-Japanese war China Threat New Colonialism Taiwan’s independence High Unemployment Rate Wide Income Gap Corruption …

Skepticism
‘Potential power over other nations, however benevolent its purpose leads inevitably to imperialism. ‘ Robert Taft, U.S. Senator 1939–1953 Deployment of "soft power" - aid, trade and the promotion of a political model which puts development before democracy. Jing Huang, of the Brookings Institution in Washington, says this is the most potent threat from China to the West: "What it really challenges is a value system. Who we are and what we want to be."

Rise implies that others must decline, at least in a relative sense while development suggests that China’s advance can bring others along

Peaceful Development
Concept Both directs to internal and external environment Nature No longer military or occupation Different from 15th to 18th centuries’ superpower Impossible and not feasible for China to be assertive Economic diplomacy Future Outlook More on negotiations, cooperation, economic measures

PEACEFUL RICE
Made in New Peking Restaurant, using Japanese post WWII recipe Distributions: China and neighboring countries including Japan, North & South Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN

REFERENCES Yongnian ZHENG, Sow Keat TOK (2005) China’s Peaceful Rise: Concept and Practice, China Policy Institute , University of Nottingham Ong Keng Yong, Securing a Win-Win Partnership for ASEAN and China Cai Bingku, China’s Peaceful Development and relations with its East Asian Neighbors

Thank You Very Much ~~