CPM/PERT

Project

“A project is a series of activities directed to the accomplishment of a desired objective.”

Critical path refers to the longest path of a given project network Duration of a project is given by the length of the critical path Activities on a critical path are called critical activities while remaining activities are non-critical A project can have more than one critical path as well Critical activities are so called because their timely completion is critical to the completion of the project in time Critical activities can not be delayed while noncritical activities have some cushion available

Indicate EVENT.The Project Network  Use of nodes and arrows Arrows  An arrow leads from tail to head directionally – Indicate ACTIVITY. a time consuming effort that is required to perform a part of the work. a point in time where one or more activities start and/or finish. . Nodes  A node is represented by a circle .

Activity Event . Shown as an arrow on the diagram – An event is denoted by a circle and defines the end of one activity and beginning of the next.The Project Network – An activity is a time-consuming effort that is required to complete part of a project. An event may be a decision point.

Activity Slack Each event has two important times associated with it : .Earliest Allowable Occurrence Time (Te). SLACK is the difference between the latest time and the earliest time of an event is the slack time for that event  Positive slack : Slack is the amount of time an event can be delayed without delaying the project completion . which is a calendar time when an event can occur when all the predecessor events have been completed at the earliest possible times - Latest Allowable Occurrence Time (TL). which is  the latest time by which an event can occur without delaying the subsequent events and hence completion of the project.

e.Critical Path Is the sequence of activities and events where there is no “slack” i. TE = TL  Longest path through the network  minimum completion time of a project  . Zero slack i..e.

Example 1.G C. Construct the CPM Network using the details below and determine the critical path Activity Immediate Predecessor Duration(in months) A - 1 B C D E F G H I J A A A D D E F.H B 4 2 2 3 3 2 1 3 2 .

H B 2 1 3 2 A 1 2 .G C.Activit y Predec essor Duratio n A B C D E F A A A D D 1 4 2 2 3 3 CPM NETWORK G H I J E F.

H B 3 2 1 3 2 4 D 2 C 7 A 1 B 3 .Activit y Predec essor Duratio n A B C D E A A A D 1 4 2 2 3 CPM NETWORK F G H I J D E F.G C.

Activit y Predec essor Duratio n A B C D E A A A D 1 4 2 2 3 CPM NETWORK F G H I J D E F.G C.H B 3 2 1 3 2 E 4 D 2 C F 5 6 7 A 1 B 3 .

Activit y Predec essor Duratio n A B C D E A A A D 1 4 2 2 3 CPM NETWORK F G H I J D E F.H B 3 2 1 3 2 E 4 D 2 C F 5 G 6 7 A 1 B 3 .G C.

H B 3 2 1 3 2 E 4 D 2 C F 5 G 6 H 7 A 1 B 3 .G C.Activit y Predec essor Duratio n A B C D E A A A D 1 4 2 2 3 CPM NETWORK F G H I J D E F.

H B 2 2 3 3 2 1 3 2 E 4 D 2 C F 5 G 6 H I 7 8 A 1 B 3 .Activit y Immedi ate Predec essor A Duratio n CPM NETWORK 1 4 A B C D E F G H I J A A D D E F.G C.

Activit y Predec essor Duratio n A B C D E A A A D 1 4 2 2 3 CPM NETWORK F G H I J D E F.H B 3 2 1 3 2 E 4 D 2 C F 5 G 6 H I 7 8 A 1 B J 3 .G C.

CPM NETWORK with duration of each activity E(3) 4 D(2) A(1) 1 2 C(2) F(3) 5 G(2) 6 H(1) I(3) 7 8 B(4) J(2) 3 .

FORWARD PASS To find the Critical Path Acti vity A B C D ES 0 EF 1 E E(3) 4 TE= TL= 5 G(2) F G H I J F(3) 6 C(2) H(1) 0 D(2) A(1) 2 B(4) I(3) 7 8 1 J(2) 3 .

FORWARD PASS To find the Critical Path Acti vity A B C D ES 0 EF 1 E E(3) 4 TE= TL= 5 G(2) F G H I J F(3) 6 C(2) H(1) 0 D(2) TE=1 A(1) TL= I(3) 7 8 1 2 B(4) J(2) 3 .

FORWARD PASS To find the Critical Path Acti vity A B C D ES 0 1 1 1 EF 1 5 3 3 E TE=3 TL= E(3) 5 G(2) F G H I J 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 C(2) H(1) 0 D(2) TE=1 A(1) TL= I(3) 7 8 1 2 B(4) TE=5 TL= J(2) 3 .

FORWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 Acti vity A B C D ES 0 1 1 1 EF 1 5 3 3 TL = TE=3 TL= E F G H I J 3 3 6 6 E(3) 5 G(2) 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 C(2) H(1) 0 D(2) TE=1 A(1) TL= I(3) 7 8 1 2 B(4) TE=5 TL= J(2) 3 .

FORWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 Acti vity A B C D ES 0 1 1 1 EF 1 5 3 3 TL = TE=3 TL= E F G H I J 3 3 6 6 6 8 E(3) 5 G(2) 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 TE=8 0 D(2) TE=1 H(1) I(3) 7 8 A(1) TL= 1 2 B(4) C(2) TL= TE=5 TL= J(2) 3 .

FORWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 Acti vity A B C D ES 0 1 1 1 EF 1 5 3 3 TL = TE=3 TL= E F G H I J TE=9 TL= 3 3 6 8 6 6 8 9 E(3) 5 G(2) 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 TE=8 0 D(2) TE=1 H(1) A(1) TL= 1 2 B(4) C(2) TL= I(3) 8 7 TE=5 TL= J(2) 3 .

FORWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 Acti vity A B C D ES 0 1 1 1 EF 1 5 3 3 TL = TE=3 TL= E F G H I J TE=9 TL= 3 3 6 8 9 5 6 6 8 9 12 7 E(3) 5 G(2) 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 TE=8 0 D(2) TE=1 H(1) A(1) TL= 1 2 B(4) C(2) TL= I(3) 8 7 TE=5 TL= J(2) 3 .

FORWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 TL = TE=3 TL= E(3) 5 G(2) 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 TE=8 0 D(2) TE=1 H(1) TE=9 TL= A(1) TL= 1 2 B(4) C(2) TL= I(3) 8 TE=12 TL= 7 TE=5 TL= J(2) 3 .

BACWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 Ac tiv ity A B C D E F ES EF LS LF 0 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 1 5 3 3 6 6 8 9 TL = TE=3 TL= E(3) 5 G(2) G H 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 TE=8 0 D(2) TE=1 I 9 5 12 7 H(1) TE=9 J TL= A(1) TL= 1 2 B(4) C(2) TL= I(3) 8 TE=12 TL= 7 TE=5 TL= J(2) 3 .

BACWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 Ac tiv ity A B C D E F ES EF LS LF 0 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 1 5 3 3 6 6 8 9 TL = TE=3 TL= E(3) 5 G(2) G H 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 TE=8 0 D(2) TE=1 I 9 5 12 7 9 10 12 12 H(1) TE=9 J TL= A(1) TL= 1 2 B(4) C(2) TL= I(3) 8 TE=12 TL=12 7 TE=5 TL= J(2) 3 .

BACWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 Ac tiv ity A B C D E F ES EF LS LF 0 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 1 5 3 3 6 6 8 9 TL = TE=3 TL= E(3) 5 G(2) G H 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 TE=8 0 D(2) TE=1 I 9 5 12 7 9 10 12 12 H(1) TE=9 J T L =9 A(1) TL= 1 2 B(4) C(2) TL= I(3) 8 TE=12 TL=12 7 TE=5 TL=10 J(2) 3 .

BACWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 Ac tiv ity A B C D E F ES EF LS LF 0 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 1 5 3 3 6 6 8 9 8 9 TL = TE=3 TL= E(3) 5 G(2) G H 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 TE=8 0 D(2) TE=1 I 9 5 12 7 9 10 12 12 H(1) TE=9 J T L =9 A(1) TL= 1 2 B(4) C(2) T L =8 I(3) 8 TE=12 TL=12 7 TE=5 TL=10 J(2) 3 .

BACWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 Ac tiv ity A B C D E F ES EF LS LF 0 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 1 5 3 3 6 6 8 9 5 6 8 8 8 9 TL=6 TE=3 TL= E(3) 5 G(2) G H 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 TE=8 0 D(2) TE=1 I 9 5 12 7 9 10 12 12 H(1) TE=9 J T L =9 A(1) TL= 1 2 B(4) C(2) T L =8 I(3) 8 TE=12 TlL=12 7 TE=5 TL=10 J(2) 3 .

BACWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 Ac tiv ity A B C D E F ES EF LS LF 0 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 1 5 3 3 6 6 8 9 3 5 6 8 6 8 8 9 TL=6 TE=3 T L =3 E(3) 5 G(2) G H 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 TE=8 0 D(2) TE=1 I 9 5 12 7 9 10 12 12 H(1) TE=9 J T L =9 A(1) TL= 1 2 B(4) C(2) T L =8 I(3) 8 TE=12 TL=12 7 TE=5 TL=10 J(2) 3 .

BACWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 Ac tiv ity A B C D E F ES EF LS LF 0 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 1 5 3 3 6 6 8 9 6 7 1 3 5 6 8 10 9 3 6 8 8 9 TL=6 TE=3 T L =3 E(3) 5 G(2) G H 4 TE= TL= F(3) 6 TE=8 0 D(2) TE=1 I 9 5 12 7 9 10 12 12 H(1) TE=9 J T L =9 A(1) TL=1 1 2 B(4) C(2) T L =8 I(3) 8 TE=12 TL=12 7 TE=5 TL=10 J(2) 3 .

BACWARD PASS To find the Critical Path TE=6 Ac tiv ity A B C D E F ES EF LS LF 0 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 1 5 3 3 6 6 8 9 0 6 7 1 3 5 6 8 1 10 9 3 6 8 8 9 TL=6 TE=3 T L =3 E(3) 5 G(2) G H 4 TE= F(3) 6 TE=8 0 TL=0 D(2) TE=1 I 9 5 12 7 9 10 12 12 H(1) TE=9 J T L =9 A(1) TL=1 1 2 B(4) C(2) T L =8 I(3) 8 TE=12 TL=12 7 TE=5 TL=10 J(2) 3 .

Critical Path 5 E(3) 4 0 0 1 1 6 6 3 3 G(2) F(3) 8 8 D(2) 6 H(1) 1 A(1) 9 9 12 12 I(3) 2 B(4) C(2) 7 8 Critical Path 1-2-4–5–6–7-8 Critical Path A–D–E–G–H-I 3 5 10 J(2) Project Completion Time = 12 months .

– Non-Critical Activities can start late or finish late within the permissible limits. without delaying Finish Date of the Project.FLOATS WHAT IS A FLOAT? – A float shows time available for rescheduling an activity. – Activities on Critical Path cannot be delayed. . if required.

TF is always zero. TOTAL FLOAT (TF)  Total float is the amount of time by which an activity may be delayed without delaying the project completion Total Float = LST-EST or = LFT .EFT Or = TLJ .TEi .THREE TYPES OF FLOATS 1. .Dij  On Critical Activities.

it shows time for which an activity can be delayed without delaying the early start of successor activity/activities.THREE TYPES OF FLOATS 2.TEj  FF will always be less than or equal to TF and never more.TEi – Dij Where Head Slack = TLj . FF is always zero. Free Float = Total Float – Head Slack Or = TEj .FREE FLOAT (FF)  Free float is that part of total float which can be used without affecting floats of the succeeding activities  Also called Normal Float.  In all critical activities. .

TEi  Shows the time available even if an activity has a Late Start and succeeding activity’s Early Start. INDEPENDENT FLOAT (IF)  Independent float is the amount of time which can be used without affecting the head and the tail events Independent Float = (Free Float .  This float often results in a negative figure. .Tail Slack) or ‘Zero’ whichever is higher Or = TEj – TLi – Dij Where Tail Slack = TLi .3.

Interfering float is that part of Total Float which causes a reduction in the float of successor activities. = (Total float – Free float) or (TLj – TEj) Total Float ≥ Free Float ≥ Independent Float . whichever is larger. It is formulated as the difference between the LFT of the Activity in question and EST of the following activity or Zero.

TEi .Dij A B C D E F G H I J 0 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 9 5 1 5 3 3 6 6 8 9 12 7 0 6 7 1 3 5 6 8 9 10 1 10 9 3 6 8 8 9 12 12 Total Free Inde Float Float pend ent Float 0 5 .FLOAT CALCULATION Activ ity ES EF LS LF Total Float = LS-ES or LF-EF Or TLJ .

TEi .FLOAT CALCULATION Activ ity ES EF LS LF Total Free Inde Float Float pend ent Float Total Float = LS-ES or LF-EF Or TLJ .Dij A B C D E F G H I J 0 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 9 5 1 5 3 3 6 6 8 9 12 7 0 6 7 1 3 5 6 8 9 10 1 10 9 3 6 8 8 9 12 12 0 5 6 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 .

TEi .FLOAT CALCULATION Acti vity ES EF LS LF Tota l Floa t Fre e Floa t Inde pen den t Floa t Hea d Slac k Total Float = LS-ES or LF-EF Or TLJ .Dij Free Float = Total Float – Head Slack Or TEj .TEi – Dij Where Head Slack = TLj TEj A B C 0 1 1 1 5 3 0 6 7 1 10 9 0 5 6 0 5 0 D E F G H I J 1 3 3 6 8 9 5 3 1 3 6 3 6 6 5 8 8 6 8 9 8 9 12 9 12 7 10 12 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .

FLOAT CALCULATION Activ ity ES EF LS LF TF FF Hd Tail Slac Slac k k Total Float = LS-ES or LF-EF Or TLJ .TEi – Dij Where Head Slack = TLj TEj A B C D E F G H I J 0 1 0 1 5 6 1 3 7 1 3 1 3 6 3 3 6 5 6 8 6 8 9 8 9 12 9 5 7 10 1 10 9 3 6 8 8 9 12 12 0 5 6 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .Dij Free Float = Total Float – Head Slack Or TEj .TEi .

FLOAT CALCULATION Acti vity ES EF LS LF TF FF IF Hd Sla ck Total Float = LS-ES or LF-EF Or TLJ .Dij Where Head Slack = TLj – TEj Independent Float = Free Float .TEi .Tail Slack Or TEj – TLi – Dij Where Tail Slack = TLi TEi B C D E F G H I J 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 9 5 5 6 10 3 7 9 3 1 3 6 3 6 6 5 8 8 6 8 9 8 9 12 9 12 7 10 12 5 6 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 0 6 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 .Dij Tai l Sla ck A 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 Free Float = Total Float – Head Slack Or TEj .TEi .

TEi .Dij Where Head Slack = TLj – TEj Independent Float = Free Float .TEi .Tail Slack Or TEj – TLi – Dij Where Tail Slack = TLi TEi 10 12 .Dij A B C D E F G H I J 0 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 9 5 1 5 3 3 6 6 8 9 12 7 0 6 7 1 3 5 6 8 9 1 10 9 3 6 8 8 9 12 0 5 6 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Free Float = Total Float – Head Slack Or TEj .FLOAT CALCULATION Act ivit y ES EF LS LF TF FF IF Hd Sla ck Tail Sla ck Total Float = LS-ES or LF-EF Or TLJ .

B C C E.F D. find the expected duration and variance for each activity & find the critical path and expected project completion time Activity A B C D E F G H I J K Predecessor A A.I a to 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m tl 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2 b tp 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 .PERT – Example: Construct Project network.F E.H G.

H G.B C C E.PERT – Example: Mean µ = (to + 4* tm + tp)/6 Activity Predece ssor A B C D E F G H I J K A A.F E.F D.I a to 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m tm 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2 b tp 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 µ te 7 .

B C C E.F D.I a to 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m tm 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2 b tp 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 µ te 7 3 .H G.F E.PERT – Example: Mean µ = (to + 4* tm + tp)/6 Activity Predece ssor A B C D E F G H I J K A A.

F D.I a to 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m tm 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2 b tp 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 µ te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3 σ2 .PERT – Example: Mean µ = (to + 4* tm + tp)/6 Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A.F E.H G.B C C E.

PERT – Example: Mean µ = (to + 4* tm + tp)/6 Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A.F E.H G.F D.11 .I a to 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m tm 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2 b tp 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 µ te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3 σ2 0.B C C E.

PERT – Example: Mean µ = (to + 4* tm + tp)/6 Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A.F D.11 1.F E.I a to 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m tm 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2 b tp 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 µ te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3 σ2 0.78 .B C C E.H G.

00 .78 1.I a to 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m tm 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2 b tp 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 µ te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3 σ2 0.00 4.00 0.H G.F E.00 1.78 1.11 1.11 1.F D.78 1.00 0 1.PERT – Example: Mean µ = (to + 4* tm + tp)/6 Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A.B C C E.

B C 3 4 2 3 5 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 C D E F G H I J K C E.F D.H G.F E.To find the Critical Path Ac Pre tivi dec ty ess or A - µ te 7 B A A.I 3 4 5 6 3 .

F D.B C 3 4 2 3 5 6 C D E F G H I J K C E.H G.I 3 4 5 6 3 .To find the Critical Path Ac Pre tivi dec ty ess or A - µ te 7 D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 B A A.F E.

F D.I 3 4 5 6 3 .B C 3 4 2 3 5 6 C D E F G H I J K C E.To find the Critical Path Ac Pre tivi dec ty ess or A - µ te 7 D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 E(3) 5 B A A.H G.F E.

I 3 4 5 6 3 .F D.To find the Critical Path Ac Pre tivi dec ty ess or A - µ te 7 D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) E(3) 5 B A A.B C 3 4 2 3 5 6 C D E F G H I J K C E.H G.F E.

B C 3 4 2 3 5 6 C D E F G H C E.H G.F D.I 3 4 5 6 3 G(3) 7 I J K .F E.To find the Critical Path Ac Pre tivi dec ty ess or A - µ te 7 D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) E(3) 5 B A A.

H G.B C 3 4 2 3 5 6 C D E F G H C E.F E.F D.To find the Critical Path Ac Pre tivi dec ty ess or A - µ te 7 D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) E(3) 5 H(4) B A A.I 3 4 5 6 3 G(3) 7 I J K .

To find the Critical Path

Ac Pre tivi dec ty ess or A -

µ te

7

D(2)
2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) I(5) E(3) 5 H(4)

B

A A,B C

3
4 2 3 5

6

C D E F

G
H I

C
E,F E,F D,H G,I

3
4 5 6 3

G(3)
7

J K

To find the Critical Path

Ac Pre tivi dec ty ess or A -

µ te

7

D(2)
2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) I(5) E(3) 5 H(4)

B

A A,B C

3
4 2 3 5

6 J(6) 8

C D E F

G
H I

C
E,F E,F D,H G,I

3
4 5 6 3

G(3)
7

J K

To find the Critical Path

Ac Pre tivi dec ty ess or A -

µ te

7

D(2)
2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) I(5) E(3) 5 H(4)

B

A A,B C

3
4 2 3 5

6 J(6) 8 K(3) 7

C D E F

G
H I J K

C
E,F E,F D,H G,I

3
4 5 6 3

G(3)

FORWARD PASS To find the Critical Path 7 14 D(2) 2 0 6 H(4) J(6) 10 20 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 4 7 E(3) 3 F(5) 5 8 K(3) 15 I(5) 7 G(3) .

BACKWARD PASS To find the Critical Path 7 7 14 14 D(2) 7 7 2 0 0 6 H(4) J(6) 20 20 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 5 E(3) 5 F(5) 3 10 10 8 K(3) 15 17 I(5) 7 G(3) 4 .

Identify The Critical path? 7 7 14 14 D(2) 7 7 2 0 0 6 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 5 H(4) E(3) 5 10 10 J(6) 20 20 3 8 F(5) G(3) I(5) 7 K(3) 15 17 4 Critical path 1 – 2 – 3 – 5 – 6 – 8 Critical path A – Dummy – E – H – J .

H G.B C C E.11 1.F D.00 .00 1.00 0 1.78 1.78 1.F E.I a to 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m tm 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2 b tp 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8 µ te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3 σ2 0.PERT – Example: Mean µ = (to + 4* tm + tp)/6 Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A.78 1.00 4.00 0.11 1.

68 % .Example  What is the probability of completing the project within 25 weeks? Activities A Dummy E Variance 0.4768 Probability of completion = 97.06 Area under the curve corresponding to Z .11 0 1.43 Ts (Scheduled time) = 25 weeks    Z = (Ts – Te) / σCP = (25 – 20) / 2.2.06 = 0.89 (Variance) J σCP = √(Σσ2) = 2.PERT .78 H    0 4 Σσ2 = 5.43 = 2.

Example What is the probability of completing the project within 15 weeks? Activities Variance A 0.11 Dummy E H J 0 1.PERT .78 0 4 .

5 .43 = -2.06) = 0.Example What is the probability of completing the project within 15 weeks? Activities Variance A 0.11 Dummy E H J      0 1.89 σCP = √(Σσ2) = 2.32 % .06 From z table (normal table) z(-2.0.0232= 2.43 Ts (Scheduled time) = 15 weeks Z = (Ts – Te) / σCP = (15 – 20) / 2.4768 • = 0.PERT .4768 = 0.78 0 4 Σσ2 = 5.

Pr = 50.000 • Actual Area = 0.e.00 Area Under the curve for Z=0.11 0 1.000 = 0.Example H J      0 4 Σσ2 = 5.43 Ts (Scheduled time) = 20 weeks Z = (Ts – Te) / σCP = (20 – 20) / 2.78 PERT .0.000 is 0.5 i.00 % .5 .89 σCP = √(Σσ2) = 2.43 = 0.What is the probability of completing the project within 20 weeks? Activities Variance A Dummy E 0.

THANK YOU .