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CUSTOMER ANALYSIS

Trend in the Romanian market

JUL 2006
TOTAL

CUSTOMERS
URBB
% NUMERIC % WEIGHTED

OFF PREMISE ON PREMISE

60,300 27,700

37,500 18,900

62% 68%

84% 78%

URBAN
RURAL TOTAL MARKET

57,600
30,400 88,000

40,800
15,600 56,400

71%
51% 64%

87%
67% 82%

Trends in the Romanian beer market


JAN - JUL
total Hl 2006 VS 2005 sales/client Hl no of clients

TOTAL ROMANIA

total market URBB total market URBB

106.2% 118.6% 111.1% 137.9% 96.2% 89.1%

104.4% 111.0% 108.6% 121.8% 95.9% 91.5%

101.7% 106.8% 102.3% 113.2% 100.3% 97.4%

OFF

ON

total market URBB

URBAN

total market
URBB

107.8%
117.8% 101.7% 122.8%

105.1%
112.7% 101.5% 106.4%

102.6%
104.5% 100.2% 115.4%

RURAL

total market URBB

MEMRB beer market research

Trends in the Romanian SD market


2006 VS 2005

JULY
total Hl sales/client Hl no of clients

TOTAL ROMANIA

total market URBB total market URBB

129.8% 566.4% 121.3% 590.4% 178.9% 383.5%

115.2% 278.9% 118.9% 284.2% 101.5% 284.6%

112.7% 203.1% 102.0% 207.7% 176.3% 134.8%

OFF

ON

total market URBB

URBAN

total market
URBB

136.7%
569.3% 110.2% 534.1%

116.2%
300.0% 102.6% 131.7%

117.6%
189.8% 107.4% 405.5%

RURAL

total market URBB

MEMRB SD market research

Market Share Total Market Beer MEMRB Market, 2006 jan-jul MEMRB Market, 2005 jan-jul

Total Romania

Urban

Rural

5,736,168 5,401,015

4,274,920 3,964,424

1,461,248 1,436,591

106.2% Total Tuborg, 2006 jan-jul Total Tuborg, 2005 jan-jul Total Interbrew, 2006 jan-jul 10.1% 9.1% 22.4%

107.8% 11.5% 10.5% 23.0%

101.7% 6.0% 5.0% 20.4%

Total Interbrew, 2005 jan-jul


Total South African Breweries (S.A.B.), 2006 jan-jul Total South African Breweries (S.A.B.), 2005 jan-jul Total Brau AG, 2006 jan-jul Total Brau AG, 2005 jan-jul Total European Drinks, 2006 jan-jul Total European Drinks, 2005 jan-jul Total Bere Mures, 2006 jan-jul Total Bere Mures, 2005 jan-jul

22.0%
22.4% 20.0% 22.9% 24.7% 11.2% 11.8% 7.6% 7.9%

22.9%
21.9% 19.9% 22.2% 24.1% 10.9% 11.0% 8.0% 8.4%

19.7%
24.2% 20.2% 25.0% 26.3% 11.9% 13.8% 6.4% 6.5%

Weighted Handling Total Market Beer MEMRB Market, 2006 jan-jul MEMRB Market, 2005 jan-jul

Total Romania

Urban

Rural

5,736,168 5,401,015

4,274,920 3,964,424

1,461,248 1,436,591

106% Total Tuborg, 2006 jan-jul Total Tuborg, 2005 jan-jul Total Interbrew, 2006 jan-jul 81.7% 80.5% 93.4%

108% 87.2% 87.0% 94.6%

102% 65.6% 62.8% 89.6%

Total Interbrew, 2005 jan-jul


Total South African Breweries (S.A.B.), 2006 jan-jul Total South African Breweries (S.A.B.), 2005 jan-jul Total Brau AG, 2006 jan-jul Total Brau AG, 2005 jan-jul Total European Drinks, 2006 jan-jul Total European Drinks, 2005 jan-jul Total Bere Mures, 2006 jan-jul Total Bere Mures, 2005 jan-jul

91.6%
89.3% 87.6% 89.3% 91.7% 71.3% 68.7% 56.8% 55.0%

93.4%
90.8% 90.6% 90.5% 93.9% 71.4% 68.1% 60.0% 58.3%

86.5%
85.0% 79.0% 85.6% 85.8% 71.2% 70.4% 47.4% 45.8%

Market Share Total Market SD

Total Romania

Urban

Rural

MEMRB Market, Jul06 MEMRB Market, Jul05

947,600 729,908 130%

741,714 542,960 137% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 45.4% 49.3% 33.9% 23.9% 13.4%

205,887 186,948 110% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 1.3% 37.7% 39.2% 23.8% 15.4% 23.2%

Total Carlsrom, Jul06 Total Carlsrom, Jul05 Total ROMAQUA GROUP, Jul06 Total ROMAQUA GROUP, Jul05 CORPORATE COCA-COLA, Jul06 CORPORATE COCA-COLA, Jul05 CORP.PEPSI COLA, Jul06 CORP.PEPSI COLA, Jul05 TOTAL EURO DRINKS, Jul06

0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 43.7% 46.7% 31.7% 21.8% 15.6%

TOTAL EURO DRINKS, Jul05

19.9%

17.4%

27.2%

Weighted Handling Total Market SD MEMRB Market, Jul06 MEMRB Market, Jul05

Total Romania

Urban

Rural

947,600 729,908 130%

741,714 542,960 137% 46% 27% 29% 27% 97% 97% 91% 89%

205,887 186,948 110% 16% 5% 28% 24% 93% 91% 80% 78%

Total Carlsrom, Jul06 Total Carlsrom, Jul05 Total ROMAQUA GROUP, Jul06 Total ROMAQUA GROUP, Jul05 CORPORATE COCA-COLA, Jul06 CORPORATE COCA-COLA, Jul05 CORP.PEPSI COLA, Jul06 CORP.PEPSI COLA, Jul05

40% 21% 29% 26% 96% 96% 89% 86%

TOTAL EURO DRINKS, Jul06


TOTAL EURO DRINKS, Jul05

80%
86%

79%
85%

82%
89%

UNIVERS OF CUSTOMERS 2006 Off premise outlets = slight increase ( + 2.0%), due to the General Store segment On premise outlets = constant Urban customers = slight increase ( + 2.6%) Rural customers = constant 2007 Off premise outlets = same slight increase, due to the general economic increase On premise outlets = possible slight decrease, due to the European legislation regarding food service industry and decreasing of the black market Urban customers = same trend Rural customers = possible slight increase

KA CHAINS 2006 Outlets 2006 = + 15%

Volume 2006 BEER


Volume 2006 SD

= + 188% (URBB = + 178%)


= + 263% (URBB = + 729%)

According MEMRB, supermarket channel had the highest growth in

volumes 2006 vs 2005


75% of the beer market growth came from this channel 38% of the SD market growth came from this channel CBA (trade association) failed to unify the small outlets

New chains 2006:


Real Auchan Spar = 7 hipermarket = 1 hipermarket = 10 small supermarket (< 1000 m2)

2007 Outlets 2007 Volume 2006 = + 23% = + 195%

New chains 2007: Tesco ? (to buy Cora) Casino ?


TIP
HIPERMARKET SUPERMARKET GAS STATION DISCOUNT CASH & CARRY TOTAL

2006
25 82 871 71 35 1084

2007
65 117 965 146 39 1332

%
260% 143% 111% 206% 111% 123%

Local & regional chains have the same development trend Romanian regional chains started to expand their business (Pic, Trident, Fidelio, Cip Savin, Mara, Ethos etc.)

ON PREMISE CHANNEL

Market Share On Premise Beer MEMRB Market, 2006 jan-jul MEMRB Market, 2005 jan-jul

Total Romania

Horeca

Bar

Restaurant

Other Horeca

5,736,168 5,401,015

1,712,194 1,780,494

313,453 343,842

260,547 290,141

1,138,194 1,146,511

106.2% Total Tuborg, 2006 jan-jul Total Tuborg, 2005 jan-jul Total Interbrew, 2006 jan-jul 10.1% 9.1% 22.4%

96.2% 10.1% 10.9% 21.3%

91.2% 11.9% 13.9% 24.0%

89.8% 14.3% 16.3% 23.8%

99.3% 8.6% 8.6% 20.0%

Total Interbrew, 2005 jan-jul


Total South African Breweries (S.A.B.), 2006 jan-jul Total South African Breweries (S.A.B.), 2005 jan-jul Total Brau AG, 2006 jan-jul Total Brau AG, 2005 jan-jul Total European Drinks, 2006 jan-jul Total European Drinks, 2005 jan-jul Total Bere Mures, 2006 jan-jul Total Bere Mures, 2005 jan-jul

22.0%
22.4% 20.0% 22.9% 24.7% 11.2% 11.8% 7.6% 7.9%

23.6%
35.8% 27.6% 25.8% 29.3% 2.8% 3.1% 1.0% 1.2%

24.8%
33.1% 24.8% 26.2% 29.7% 1.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.8%

27.4%
32.5% 23.2% 27.2% 32.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

22.3%
37.3% 29.5% 25.4% 28.5% 3.6% 4.2% 1.3% 1.6%

Weighted Handling On Premise Beer


Horeca Bar Restaurant

Other Horeca

MEMRB Market, 2006 jan-jul MEMRB Market, 2005 jan-jul

1,712,194 1,780,494

313,453 343,842

260,547 290,141

1,138,194 1,146,511

96% Total Tuborg, 2006 jan-jul Total Tuborg, 2005 jan-jul Total Interbrew, 2006 jan-jul 77.6% 80.8% 91.5%

91% 82.7% 82.0% 93.9%

90% 93.1% 93.9% 96.6%

99% 72.7% 77.2% 89.6%

Total Interbrew, 2005 jan-jul


Total South African Breweries (S.A.B.), 2006 jan-jul Total South African Breweries (S.A.B.), 2005 jan-jul Total Brau AG, 2006 jan-jul Total Brau AG, 2005 jan-jul Total European Drinks, 2006 jan-jul Total European Drinks, 2005 jan-jul Total Bere Mures, 2006 jan-jul Total Bere Mures, 2005 jan-jul

90.5%
92.0% 87.0% 86.1% 89.9% 25.2% 26.2% 12.7% 10.2%

91.7%
87.1% 85.9% 89.9% 93.5% 15.5% 18.5% 7.0% 6.4%

96.7%
91.6% 91.8% 94.6% 96.0% 6.7% 5.6% 3.4% 0.8%

88.6%
93.4% 86.2% 83.1% 87.2% 32.2% 33.7% 16.3% 13.8%

Market Share On Premise SD

Total Romania

Horeca

Fast Food

Bar

Other Horeca

MEMRB Market, Jul06 MEMRB Market, Jul05

947,600 729,908 130%

192,771 107,725 179% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 33.9% 61.7% 59.0%

27,262 8,534 319% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 28.4% 72.7% 70.1%

87,673 70,139 125% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 46.6% 58.3% 39.5%

77,836 29,052 268% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 21.5% 66.9% 77.1%

Total Carlsrom, Jul06 Total Carlsrom, Jul05 Total ROMAQUA GROUP, Jul06 Total ROMAQUA GROUP, Jul05 CORPORATE COCA-COLA, Jul06 CORPORATE COCA-COLA, Jul05 CORP.PEPSI COLA, Jul06

0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 43.7% 46.7% 31.7%

CORP.PEPSI COLA, Jul05


TOTAL EURO DRINKS, Jul06 TOTAL EURO DRINKS, Jul05

21.8%
15.6% 19.9%

23.4%
4.9% 10.2%

21.9%
0.5% 4.4%

21.2%
9.8% 14.0%

29.4%
0.9% 2.9%

Weighted Handling On Premise SD MEMRB Market, Jul06 MEMRB Market, Jul05

Total Romania

Horeca

Fast Food

Bar

Other Horeca

947,600 729,908 130%

192,771 107,725 179% 26% 12% 6% 9% 94% 93% 83% 70%

27,262 8,534 319% 63% 8% 3% 11% 95% 92% 76% 46%

87,673 70,139 125% 10% 10% 8% 11% 91% 93% 77% 71%

77,836 29,052 268% 32% 18% 4% 4% 98% 95% 91% 74%

Total Carlsrom, Jul06 Total Carlsrom, Jul05 Total ROMAQUA GROUP, Jul06 Total ROMAQUA GROUP, Jul05 CORPORATE COCA-COLA, Jul06 CORPORATE COCA-COLA, Jul05 CORP.PEPSI COLA, Jul06 CORP.PEPSI COLA, Jul05

40% 21% 29% 26% 96% 96% 89% 86%

TOTAL EURO DRINKS, Jul06


TOTAL EURO DRINKS, Jul05

80%
86%

27%
42%

4%
25%

50%
50%

10%
26%

2006 Outlets 2006 BEER Outlets 2006 SD Volume 2006 BEER Volume 2006 SD = = = = + 0% (URBB = 3%) + 76% 5% (URBB = 11%) + 79%

According MEMRB, for beer market, Other Horeca channel (including BODEGA, BIRT, FAST FOOD, COFFEE SHOPS) are responsible for 71% of the sales volume In this segment, URBB has the lowest market share! According MEMRB, for SD market, the huge increase came mainly from Fast Food channel 320% - and from Other Horeca (including Restaurants, Coffee Shops and Cafeteria) 268% Bar channel increase too with 124%

OFF PREMISE CHANNEL

Market Share Off Premise Beer MEMRB Market, 2006 jan-jul MEMRB Market, 2005 jan-jul

Total Romania

Off Premise

Superma rket

Large Grocery

Small Grocery

Kiosk

General Store

5,736,168 5,401,015

4,023,974 3,620,521

462,819 160,448

521,878 517,907

2,284,230 2,225,815

446,986 460,973

308,062 255,378

106.2% Total Tuborg, 2006 jan-jul Total Tuborg, 2005 jan-jul Total Interbrew, 2006 jan-jul 10.1% 9.1% 22.4%

111.1% 10.1% 8.2% 22.8%

288.5% 17.9% 18.6% 19.9%

100.8% 11.6% 10.0% 22.5%

102.6% 8.6% 7.3% 23.6%

97.0% 9.8% 8.0% 22.9%

120.6% 8.0% 5.7% 21.4%

Total Interbrew, 2005 jan-jul


Total South African Breweries (S.A.B.), 2006 jan-jul Total South African Breweries (S.A.B.), 2005 jan-jul Total Brau AG, 2006 jan-jul Total Brau AG, 2005 jan-jul Total European Drinks, 2006 jan-jul Total European Drinks, 2005 jan-jul Total Bere Mures, 2006 jan-jul Total Bere Mures, 2005 jan-jul

22.0%
22.4% 20.0% 22.9% 24.7% 11.2% 11.8% 7.6% 7.9%

21.2%
16.8% 16.2% 21.7% 22.4% 14.7% 16.0% 10.4% 11.2%

18.6%
11.2% 11.9% 21.1% 28.6% 20.6% 15.3% 5.3% 5.3%

21.2%
17.5% 15.4% 24.2% 24.1% 12.1% 15.1% 9.8% 11.0%

21.5%
18.3% 17.1% 21.1% 21.7% 13.9% 15.9% 11.1% 11.5%

21.0%
14.4% 15.8% 20.1% 20.6% 16.1% 16.7% 13.4% 12.6%

21.0%
16.0% 14.0% 25.5% 24.5% 15.1% 17.8% 9.4% 10.5%

Weighted Handling Off Premise Beer MEMRB Market, 2006 jan-jul MEMRB Market, 2005 jan-jul

Total Romania

Off Premise

Superma rket

Large Grocery

Small Grocery

Kiosk

General Store

5,736,168 5,401,015

4,023,974 3,620,521

462,819 160,448

521,878 517,907

2,284,230 2,225,815

446,986 460,973

308,062 255,378

106% Total Tuborg, 2006 jan-jul Total Tuborg, 2005 jan-jul Total Interbrew, 2006 jan-jul 81.7% 80.5% 93.4%

111% 83.4% 80.4% 94.2%

288% 100.0% 100.0% 98.1%

101% 90.7% 91.5% 96.1%

103% 80.0% 77.9% 93.9%

97% 83.8% 83.5% 94.4%

121% 71.4% 62.1% 86.4%

Total Interbrew, 2005 jan-jul


Total South African Breweries (S.A.B.), 2006 jan-jul Total South African Breweries (S.A.B.), 2005 jan-jul Total Brau AG, 2006 jan-jul Total Brau AG, 2005 jan-jul Total European Drinks, 2006 jan-jul Total European Drinks, 2005 jan-jul Total Bere Mures, 2006 jan-jul Total Bere Mures, 2005 jan-jul

91.6%
89.3% 87.6% 89.3% 91.7% 71.3% 68.7% 56.8% 55.0%

92.1%
88.2% 87.8% 90.6% 92.6% 90.9% 89.6% 75.6% 77.0%

99.6%
98.9% 99.4% 97.0% 100.0% 97.3% 73.3% 40.0% 51.6%

95.3%
90.9% 90.8% 96.8% 96.7% 91.6% 94.2% 84.1% 81.8%

91.9%
87.2% 87.4% 88.3% 91.9% 91.6% 90.4% 81.7% 80.4%

93.0%
82.4% 87.8% 90.1% 94.3% 87.5% 89.4% 79.3% 76.2%

80.3%
83.1% 78.1% 88.6% 83.5% 80.4% 83.7% 64.3% 55.3%

Sales Volume Off Premise SD MEMRB Market, Jul06 MEMRB Market, Jul05

Total Romania

Off Premise

Superma rket

Large Grocery

Small Grocery

Kiosk

General Store

947,600 729,908 130%

754,829 622,183 121% 0.8% 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 46.2% 44.1% 24.8%

133,411 50,783 263% 1.5% 0.5% 0.8% 1.4% 50.4% 41.6% 22.1%

87,040 94,188 92% 1.0% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 43.2% 43.7% 29.2%

369,891 347,275 107% 0.7% 0.1% 1.4% 1.1% 44.5% 43.1% 23.7%

104,113 83,327 125% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 52.2% 53.0% 29.4%

60,374 46,611 130% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 1.7% 41.7% 39.0% 22.5%

Total Carlsrom, Jul06 Total Carlsrom, Jul05 Total ROMAQUA GROUP, Jul06 Total ROMAQUA GROUP, Jul05 CORPORATE COCA-COLA, Jul06 CORPORATE COCA-COLA, Jul05 CORP.PEPSI COLA, Jul06

0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 43.7% 46.7% 31.7%

CORP.PEPSI COLA, Jul05 TOTAL EURO DRINKS, Jul06


TOTAL EURO DRINKS, Jul05

21.8% 15.6%
19.9%

21.5% 18.3%
21.6%

34.5% 13.1%
7.2%

23.2% 18.0%
20.8%

19.8% 20.6%
24.0%

22.1% 14.0%
17.4%

14.7% 23.2%
28.6%

Weighted Handling Off Premise SD MEMRB Market, Jul06 MEMRB Market, Jul05

Total Romania

Off Premise

Superma rket

Large Grocery

Small Grocery

Kiosk

General Store

947,600 729,908 130%

754,829 622,183 121%

133,411 50,783 263%

87,040 94,188 92%

369,891 347,275 107%

104,113 83,327 125%

60,374 46,611 130%

Total Carlsrom, Jul06


Total Carlsrom, Jul05 Total ROMAQUA GROUP, Jul06 Total ROMAQUA GROUP, Jul05 CORPORATE COCA-COLA, Jul06 CORPORATE COCA-COLA, Jul05 CORP.PEPSI COLA, Jul06 CORP.PEPSI COLA, Jul05 TOTAL EURO DRINKS, Jul06 TOTAL EURO DRINKS, Jul05

40%
21% 29% 26% 96% 96% 89% 86% 80% 86%

43%
23% 35% 29% 96% 96% 91% 89% 93% 94%

97%
77% 86% 73% 97% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98%

51%
40% 32% 37% 99% 99% 93% 96% 95% 99%

32%
16% 26% 24% 97% 96% 89% 90% 93% 93%

11%
7% 13% 12% 90% 95% 85% 80% 88% 86%

33%
7% 20% 29% 91% 92% 86% 81% 86% 98%

2006 Outlets 2006 BEER Outlets 2006 SD Volume 2006 BEER Volume 2006 SD = = = = + 2% (URBB = +13%) + 2% 5% (URBB = 11%) + 21%

According MEMRB, for beer market, Small Grocery channel are responsible for 57% of the sales volume In this segment, URBB has the lowest market share (excepting General Store channel)! According MEMRB, for SD market, the increase came mainly from Kiosk channel 125% - and from General Store channel 130%

PORTER ANALYSIS - BUYERS KA average cost 2006 URBB for national chains = 15.8%

due to the high competition between chains and to the very fragmented
market, the bargaining power of the KA is just slightly increasing although, high competition for additional placements will increase the total expense, in fix amounts decreasing power for Cash & Carry Off premise bargaining power not existing competition for shelf space and POS placement may lead to some additional costs especially in SD business

Top Horeca

average cost 2006 URBB for exclusivity contracts = 22.0%


decreasing bargaining power for beer market (competition decrease the exclusivity budgets) increasing bargaining power for SD market (due to the fight between

Coca Cola and Pepsi)


Traditional On Premise increasing bargaining power for beer market needs for: POS materials, trade marketing activities, special prices

huge competition in mainstream segment


Wholesalers decreasing black market leads to less power increasing distribution capacity for wholesalers in Bucharest and other big

cities is leading to increasing power


not powerful in the SD business

OCCASIONS ANALYSIS

TUBORG
BRAND FIT INDEX OVER LESS SALES INDEX OVER LESS

STABLE STRONG POSITION INSTABLE STRONG POSITION LOST OPPORTUNITY LOW IMPORTANCE

Fun Seekers Meal home Supermarket Relaxed Home Convenience stores Upbeat Home

Experimenters

Ambitious and responsible

Quiet life seekers

Value Seekers

+/-

+/+

+/+

Trad.grocery stores

-/-

DANGER
Supermarket

Relaxed Outdoor Cash&Carry Relaxed Everyday Fashionable pub.town bar Trendy bar/disco Discotheque /nightclub Meal Out
OPPORTUNITY OPPORTUNITY

Specialised drinks stores


OPPORTUNITY

Petrol stations

Cash&Carry

Local bar

Upbeat Out

Fast Food

Meal in restaurant

SKOL
BRAND FIT INDEX OVER LESS SALES INDEX OVER LESS

STABLE STRONG POSITION INSTABLE STRONG POSITION LOST OPPORTUNITY LOW IMPORTANCE

Fun Seekers Meal home Supermarket Relaxed Home Convenience stores Upbeat Home

Experimenters

Ambitious and responsible

Quiet life seekers

Value Seekers
OPPORTUNITY

+/-

+/+

+/+

Trad.grocery stores

-/-

DANGER

Supermarket Relaxed Outdoor Cash&Carry Relaxed Everyday Fashionable pub.town bar Trendy bar/disco Discotheque /nightclub Meal Out Fast Food
DANGER DANGER DANGER DANGER

Specialised drinks stores

Petrol stations

Cash&Carry
OPPORTUNITY

Local bar

Upbeat Out

DANGER

Meal in restaurant

CARLSBERG
BRAND FIT INDEX OVER LESS SALES INDEX OVER LESS

STABLE STRONG POSITION INSTABLE STRONG POSITION LOST OPPORTUNITY LOW IMPORTANCE

Fun Seekers Meal home Supermarket Relaxed Home


DANGER

Experimenters

Ambitious and responsible

Quiet life seekers

Value Seekers

+/-

+/+

+/+

Trad.grocery stores

-/-

Convenience stores Upbeat Home Supermarket Relaxed Outdoor Cash&Carry Relaxed Everyday Fashionable pub.town bar Trendy bar/disco Discotheque /nightclub Meal Out Fast Food
DANGER

Specialised drinks stores

Petrol stations

Cash&Carry

Local bar

Upbeat Out

Meal in restaurant

HOLSTEN
BRAND FIT INDEX OVER LESS SALES INDEX OVER LESS

STABLE STRONG POSITION INSTABLE STRONG POSITION LOST OPPORTUNITY LOW IMPORTANCE

Fun Seekers Meal home


DANGER

Experimenters

Ambitious and responsible

Quiet life seekers

Value Seekers

+/-

OPPORTUNITY

+/+

+/+

Supermarket Relaxed Home Convenience stores Upbeat Home Supermarket Relaxed Outdoor Cash&Carry Relaxed Everyday Fashionable pub.town bar Trendy bar/disco Discotheque /nightclub Meal Out Fast Food Meal in restaurant
OPPORTUNITY

Trad.grocery stores

-/-

Specialised drinks stores

Petrol stations

Cash&Carry

Local bar

Upbeat Out

OPPORTUNITY

OPPORTUNITY

COMMENTS:
The analysis take in consideration two dimensions: brand fit brand sales index vs market index Strong stable position Instable strong position Lost opportunity = over index sales / over index brand fit = over index sales / under index brand fit = under index sales / over index brand fit

There are 4 different possibilities for each cell:


1. 2. 3.

4.
1

Less important areas

= under index sales / under index brand fit

There are 3 possible actions: = to evaluate (to understand the benefits) and continue the present activities 2 + 3 = increase availability, develop trade marketing activities, sales aggressive

promotions, increase shelf space and additional placements, merchandising


4 = ensure the availability and shelf space Red marked channels represent the first priority

TUBORG
Stable strong position specialized drink stores cash & carry (relaxed out occasion)

fashionable pub
trendy bar, discotheque Instable strong position + lost opportunities supermarket (for younger consumers)

cash & carry (for home consumption younger consumers)


convenience store (for younger consumers) petrol stations local bar

fast food
restaurant Less important area traditional grocery store

SKOL
Stable strong position local bar (for younger consumers) Instable strong position + lost opportunities supermarket (for middle age consumers) cash & carry convenience store traditional grocery store specialized drink store petrol station local bar (for older consumers) trendy bar, discotheque fast food restaurants Less important area fashionable pub

CARLSBERG
Stable strong position petrol stations specialized drink stores

cash & carry


fashionable pub local bar trendy bar, discotheque

fast food
Instable strong position + lost opportunities supermarket convenience store

restaurant
Less important area traditional grocery store

HOLSTEN
Stable strong position = Instable strong position + lost opportunities supermarket cash & carry convenience store specialized drink store petrol station local bar trendy bar, discotheque fashionable pub fast food restaurants Less important area traditional grocery store

CHANNEL ACTIVITY MATRIX


SUPERMARKET TRADITIONAL GROCERY STORE CONVENIENCE STORE CASH & CARRY SPECIALISED DRINK STORES PETROL STATIONS LOCAL BAR

TUBORG
2 0 2 2 1 2 2

SKOL
2 2 2 2 2 2 2

CARLSBERG
2 0 2 1 1 1 1

HOLSTEN
2 0 2 2 2 2 2

FASHIONABLE PUB/BAR
TRENDY BAR DISCOTHEQUE FAST FOOD RESTAURANT

1
1 1 2 2

0
2 2 2 2

1
1 1 1 2

2
2 2 2 2

1
2 2 0

= STRONG STABLE POSITION = INSTABLE POSITION FIRST PRIORITY = INSTABLE POSITION = LESS IMPORTANT POSITION

S.W.O.T. ANALYSIS

BUCURESTI
S Low distribution cost TOP HORECA Decreasing return Increasing wholesalers volumes Availability Market share Improving collection of debts W Less experienced sales management Fluctuation Less experienced sales force High number customers / sales agent Distribution constraints in some pick periods High cost for HORECA exclusivities (26%) Sales & availability Orangina & Holsten

O New shopping malls Development of HORECA chains

T Small outlets reduction (financial risk) Low unemployment (low professionalism for new employees) Aggressive competition ON PREMISE Long payment terms used by competitors

KA
S Dedicated sales force (Bucuresti + 4 branches + Brasov) Market share (18% according MEMRB) Availability 100% Placements in the stores Draught exclusivity in gas station Portfolio Relatively low cost (16%) Market share in hypermarket channel W 2 branches without dedicated KA sales agent (Craiova, Ploiesti) Lack of personal in Indirect Shelf share lower than market share local and regional chains Merchandising (especially in week-ends) Package quality for 6 packs Lower market share in local KA Unattractive packages (8+CD) Not enough trade marketing Not enough cold space

O New chains (Real, Spar, Kaufland, Auchan) Increase consumption habit Development of existing chains (+ 23%) Central warehouse (Billa, Metro, Kaufland)

T Aggressive competition (especially SD) Delivery constraints Price war between chains Customers fluctuation Financial risk (bad debts + discounts)

FILIALE
S KA national & local TOP HORECA (Timisoara, Iasi, partial Cluj and Constanta) SV Operations (distribution, fleet) Availability urban (except Craiova & Ploiesti) Distributors in Cluj si Prahova for rural area Stable management New branches (except Constanta) Trade Marketing (Arad, Craiova, Iasi, Seaside) Seaside 2006 (except partial Mamaia) Sales Orangina (except Iasi) O New shopping malls Development of HORECA outlets Increasing consumption in rural areas (Timisoara, Cluj, Constanta, Ploiesti) W Fluctuation High number customers / sales agent Cleaning Logistic operations in the warehouses Not strong enough connection with Central Office High cost for HORECA exclusivities (24%)

T Competition (beer) uses distributors Aggressive competition in On Premise Long payment terms used by competitors

INDIRECT
S - Stable and professional sales force - Low cost for HORECA exclusivities (16%) - Reduced financial risk (warranty letters) - Local festivals W - Not enough sales force (uncovered areas, lack of KA structure) - Low availability (especially in rural area) - Lack of interest or professionalism of some distributors (Z Centrala, Bihor, Bacau, Galati, Arges, Caras) - Logistic problems at some distributors - Merchandising - Not enough trade marketing T - European legislation (transport, logistics) - Distributors fluctuation - Increasing costs (fuel cost increasing)

O - Sibiu European Cultural City - Tourism development (Danube Delta, Prahova Valley, Maramures, Bucovina) - Development of KA local/ regional

TOTAL ROMANIA
S Sales management training program Program DPS Availability & market share national KA Availability & market share Bucharest Good trend in the branches (sales + operations) DSO decreasing Partnership with HORECA chains Trade marketing program Call Center for HORECA & KA customers Draught (image & market share 10.7%) Forward stock higher than market share (11.9% vs 10.1%) Increasing average sales/customer in hl (+11% vs +4% total market) W Not any program for distributors development Manual operating system for indirect orders Lack of data from distributors Availability rural & some urban areas Availability Holsten & Orangina Not enough coolers (especially SD) cold stock decreasing (beer) or much lower than market share (SD) Lack of sales force trust in Orangina Merchandising Wrong launching for Granini Decreasing market share in On Premise channel High cost for exclusivity contracts (22%) Out of Stock higher than competitors (6% URBB vs 4% total market) Bonus system for sales force T Beer On Premise decreasing (95% 2006 vs 2005) Increasing low price PET consumption Unemployment Increasing costs in On Premise channel

O Increasing consumption (beer and SD) KA development (288% sales increase in SMKT, according MEMRB) Increasing rural area consumption (beer & SD)