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Sampling

McGraw-Hill/I rwin

Copyright ©2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, I nc. All Rights Reserved.

14-2

Learning Objectives

Understand . . .

• The two premises on which sampling theory is

based.

• The accuracy and precision for measuring

sample validity.

• The five questions that must be answered to

develop a sampling plan.

14-3

Learning Objectives

Understand . . .

• The two categories of sampling techniques and

the variety of sampling techniques within each

category.

• The various sampling techniques and when

each is used.

14-4

Small Samples Can Enlighten

“The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

By a small sample we may judge of the

whole piece.”

Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra

author

14-5

PulsePoint:

Research Revelation

80

The average number of text

messages sent per day by

American teens.

14-6

The Nature of Sampling

•Population

•Population Element

•Census

•Sample

•Sampling frame

14-7

Why Sample?

Greater

accuracy

Availability of

elements

Greater

speed

Sampling

provides

Lower cost

14-8

What Is a Sufficiently

Large Sample?

―In recent Gallup ‗Poll on polls,‘ . . . When asked

about the scientific sampling foundation on which

polls are based . . . most said that a survey of 1,500 –

2,000 respondents—a larger than average sample

size for national polls—cannot represent the views of

all Americans.‖

Frank Newport

The Gallup Poll editor in chief

The Gallup Organization

14-9

When Is a Census

Appropriate?

Necessary Feasible

14-10

What Is a Valid Sample?

Accurate Precise

14-11

Sampling Design

within the Research Process

14-12

Types of Sampling Designs

Element

Selection

Probability Nonprobability

•Unrestricted • Simple random • Convenience

•Restricted • Complex random • Purposive

• Systematic • Judgment

•Cluster •Quota

•Stratified •Snowball

•Double

14-13

Steps in Sampling Design

What is the target population?

What are the parameters of interest?

What is the sampling frame?

What is the appropriate sampling

method?

What size sample is needed?

14-14

When to Use Larger Sample?

Desired

precision

Number of

subgroups

Confidence

level

Population

variance

Small error

range

14-15

Simple Random

Advantages

• Easy to implement

with random dialing

Disadvantages

• Requires list of

population elements

• Time consuming

• Larger sample

needed

• Produces larger

errors

• High cost

14-16

Systematic

Advantages

• Simple to design

• Easier than simple

random

• Easy to determine

sampling distribution

of mean or proportion

Disadvantages

• Periodicity within

population may skew

sample and results

• Trends in list may

bias results

• Moderate cost

14-17

Stratified

Advantages

• Control of sample size in

strata

• Increased statistical

efficiency

• Provides data to represent

and analyze subgroups

• Enables use of different

methods in strata

Disadvantages

• Increased error if

subgroups are selected at

different rates

• Especially expensive if

strata on population must

be created

• High cost

14-18

Cluster

Advantages

• Provides an unbiased

estimate of population

parameters if properly

done

• Economically more

efficient than simple

random

• Lowest cost per sample

• Easy to do without list

Disadvantages

• Often lower statistical

efficiency due to

subgroups being

homogeneous rather than

heterogeneous

• Moderate cost

14-19

Stratified and Cluster Sampling

Stratified

• Population divided into

few subgroups

• Homogeneity within

subgroups

• Heterogeneity between

subgroups

• Choice of elements

from within each

subgroup

Cluster

• Population divided into

many subgroups

• Heterogeneity within

subgroups

• Homogeneity between

subgroups

• Random choice of

subgroups

14-20

Area Sampling

14-21

Double Sampling

Advantages

• May reduce costs if first

stage results in enough

data to stratify or cluster

the population

Disadvantages

• Increased costs if

discriminately used

14-22

Nonprobability Samples

Cost

Feasibility

Time

No need to

generalize

Limited

objectives

14-23

Nonprobability

Sampling Methods

Convenience

Judgment

Quota

Snowball

14-24

Key Terms

• Area sampling

• Census

• Cluster sampling

• Convenience sampling

• Disproportionate

stratified sampling

• Double sampling

• Judgment sampling

• Multiphase sampling

• Nonprobability

sampling

• Population

• Population element

• Population parameters

• Population proportion

of incidence

• Probability sampling

14-25

Key Terms

• Proportionate stratified

sampling

• Quota sampling

• Sample statistics

• Sampling

• Sampling error

• Sampling frame

• Sequential sampling

• Simple random

sample

• Skip interval

• Snowball sampling

• Stratified random

sampling

• Systematic sampling

• Systematic variance

Appendix 14a

Determining

Sample Size

McGraw-Hill/I rwin

Copyright ©2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, I nc. All Rights Reserved.

14-27

Random Samples

14-28

Increasing Precision

14-29

Confidence Levels & the

Normal Curve

14-30

Standard Errors

Standard Error

(Z score)

% of Area Approximate

Degree of

Confidence

1.00 68.27 68%

1.65 90.10 90%

1.96 95.00 95%

3.00 99.73 99%

14-31

Central Limit Theorem

14-32

Estimates of Dining Visits

Confidence Z

score

% of

Area

Interval Range

(visits per

month)

68% 1.00 68.27 9.48-10.52

90% 1.65 90.10 9.14-10.86

95% 1.96 95.00 8.98-11.02

99% 3.00 99.73 8.44-11.56

14-33

Calculating Sample Size for

Questions involving Means

Precision

Confidence level

Size of interval estimate

Population Dispersion

Need for FPA

14-34

Metro U Sample Size for Means

Steps Information

Desired confidence level 95% (z = 1.96)

Size of the interval estimate .5 meals per month

Expected range in

population

0 to 30 meals

Sample mean 10

Standard deviation 4.1

Need for finite population

adjustment

No

Standard error of the mean .5/1.96 = .255

Sample size (4.1)

2

/ (.255)

2

= 259

14-35

Proxies of the

Population Dispersion

• Previous research on the

topic

• Pilot test or pretest

• Rule-of-thumb calculation

– 1/6 of the range

14-36

Metro U Sample Size for

Proportions

Steps Information

Desired confidence level 95% (z = 1.96)

Size of the interval estimate .10 (10%)

Expected range in population 0 to 100%

Sample proportion with given

attribute

30%

Sample dispersion Pq = .30(1-.30) = .21

Finite population adjustment No

Standard error of the

proportion

.10/1.96 = .051

Sample size .21/ (.051)

2

= 81

14-37

Appendix 14a: Key Terms

• Central limit theorem

• Confidence interval

• Confidence level

• Interval estimate

• Point estimate

• Proportion

Addendum: Keynote

CloseUp

McGraw-Hill/I rwin

Copyright ©2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, I nc. All Rights Reserved.

14-39

Keynote Experiment

14-40

Keynote Experiment (cont.)

Determining

Sample Size

Appendix 14a

McGraw-Hill/I rwin

Copyright ©2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, I nc. All Rights Reserved.

14-42

Random Samples

14-43

Confidence Levels

14-44

Metro U. Dining Club Study

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