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You are on page 1of 81

Chapter 5

Bonds, Bond Valuation, and

Interest Rates

2

Topics in Chapter

Key features of bonds

Bond valuation

Measuring yield

Assessing risk

3

Value = + + +

FCF

1

FCF

2

FCF

∞

(1 + WACC)

1

(1 + WACC)

∞

(1 + WACC)

2

Free cash flow

(FCF)

Market interest rates

Firm’s business risk Market risk aversion

Firm’s debt/equity mix

Cost of debt

Cost of equity

Weighted average

cost of capital

(WACC)

Net operating

profit after taxes

Required investments

in operating capital

−

=

Determinants of Intrinsic Value: The Cost of Debt

...

Interest Rates & Interest-

Bearing Securities

Interest rates:

Based on supply & demand for money

Driven by risk factors

Role of Federal Reserve

Basis Point

.01% or .0001

4

5

Risk & Term Structure of

Interest Rates

r

d

= r* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP

r

d

= Required rate of return on a debt security.

r* = Real risk-free rate.

IP = Inflation premium.

DRP = Default risk premium.

LP = Liquidity premium.

MRP = Maturity risk premium.

Risk & Term Structure

r = r* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP

r = nominal interest rate of a particular security (or

required rate of return)

r* = real risk-free interest rate

typically 1-4% depending on monetary policy

assumes expected inflation = zero

IP = Inflation premium

Ave. inflation over life of bond

DRP = Default risk premium

Compensation for possible default

Function of bond ratings

6

Risk & Term Structure

r = r* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP

LP = Liquidity Premium

Compensation for possible difficulty selling

bond quickly at fair market value

MRP = Maturity Risk Premium

Compensation for possible loss in value due

to increase in interest rates over maturity of

bond.

Affects longer maturities more than shorter.

7

Premiums Added to r* (real risk-free

rate) for Different Types of Debt

ST Treasury:

only IP for ST inflation

LT Treasury:

IP for LT inflation, MRP

ST corporate:

ST IP, DRP, LP

LT corporate:

IP, DRP, MRP, LP

8

Inflation & Interest Rates

Nominal Interest= 12%

- Inflation -1%

= Real Int. % =11%

If inflation =

& req’d real return =

Then Nominal rate =? =

12%

- 8%

=4%

9

8%

11%

=19%

10

Relationship b/w Nominal &

Real Interest Rates, & Inflation

Nom = Real + Inflation

But, inflation not additive, it grows or

compounds, so multiply

Nom = (Real) x (Infl)

And (1+Nom) = (1 + real) x (1 + infl)

Is better determinant; known as Fisher effect

11

Estimating Inflation Premium (IP)

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

(TIPS) are indexed to inflation.

IP for a particular length maturity can

be approximated as the difference

between the yield on a non-indexed

Treasury security of that maturity minus

the yield on a TIPS of that maturity.

12

Bond Spreads, the DRP, and

the LP

A “bond spread” is often calculated as the

difference between a corporate bond’s yield

and a Treasury security’s yield of the same

maturity. Therefore:

Spread = DRP + LP.

Bond’s of large, strong companies often have

very small LPs. Bond’s of small companies

often have LPs as high as 2%.

13

Term Structure Yield Curve

Term structure of interest rates: the

relationship between interest rates (or

yields) and maturities.

A graph of the term structure is called

the yield curve.

14

Hypothetical Treasury Yield

Curve

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1 3 5 7 9

1

1

1

3

1

5

1

7

1

9

Years to Maturity

I

n

t

e

r

e

s

t

R

a

t

e

MRP

IP

r*

What factors can explain

shape of this yield curve?

Upward slope due to:

Increasing expected inflation

Increasing maturity risk premium

What about liquidity & default risk?

15

Treasury vs. Corporate Yield

Curves relationships

Corp yield curves are higher than

Treasuries, but not necessarily parallel.

Spread b/w the two yield curves widens as

corporate bond rating decreases due to:

DRP & LP

16

Computing Yields

Estimate the inflation premium (IP) for

each future year. This is the estimated

average inflation over that time period.

Step 2: Estimate the maturity risk

premium (MRP) for each future year.

17

Assume investors expect inflation to be 5% next

year, 6% the following year, and 8% per year

thereafter.

Step 1: Find the average expected

inflation rate over years 1 to n:

IP

1

= 5%/1.0 = 5.00%.

IP

10

= [5 + 6 + 8(8)]/10 = 7.5%.

IP

20

= [5 + 6 + 8(18)]/20 = 7.75%.

Must earn these IPs to break even versus inflation; that

is, these IPs would permit you to earn r* (before

taxes).

18

Step 2: Find MRP based on

this equation:

MRP

t

= 0.1%(t - 1).

MRP

1

= 0.1% x 0 = 0.0%.

MRP

10

= 0.1% x 9 = 0.9%.

MRP

20

= 0.1% x 19 = 1.9%.

Assume the MRP is zero for Year 1 and

increases by 0.1% each year.

Step 3: Add the IPs and MRPs to r*:

r

RF

t

= r* + IP

t

+ MRP

t

.

r

RF

= Quoted market interest

rate on treasury securities.

Assume r* = 3%:

r

RF1

= 3% + 5% + 0.0% = 8.0%.

r

RF10

= 3% + 7.5% + 0.9% = 11.4%.

r

RF20

= 3% + 7.75% + 1.9% = 12.65%.

Upward vs. Downward sloping

yield curves due to?

Real risk-free rate = 3%

Expected inflation for

Year 1 =7%, Yr 2 = 5%; Yr 3 = 3%

What are interest rates for 1, 2, & 3 yr

borrowings?

21

Interest Rates & MRP problem

Assume the real risk-free rate (r*) is 4% and

inflation is expected to be 7 percent in Year1;

4% in yr 2; and 3% thereafter. Assume all

Treasury Bonds are highly liquid and free of

default risk. If 2-yr and 5-yr T-Bonds both

yield 11%, what is the difference in the

maturity risk premiums (MRPs) on the two

bonds; that is, what is MRP

5

– MRP

2

?

22

Interest Rates & Inflation Problem

Due to the recession, the rate of inflation expected

for the coming year is only 3.5%. However, the

rate of inflation in Yr 2 and thereafter is expected to

be constant at some level above 3.5%. Assume the

real risk-free rate (r*) = 2% for all maturities, and

there are no maturity premiums. If 3-year T-Bonds

yield 3% (0.03) more than the 1-year T-Bonds,

what rate of inflation is expected after year 1?

23

Coupon Bonds

Bond = Debt = Borrowing

Fixed Maturity (Maturity Date) = N

Par Value=Face Value=Maturity Value=$1000=FV

Coupon Rate=Stated Rate (locked in in bond

contract)

Coupon payment= Coupon rate x face value=PMT

Market Rate of interest = Yield to Maturity = rate

used to discount bond CF’s = I

**PV cash flow of bonds always opposite sign of PMT &

FV!!!

24

Bond Perspectives

Debt

Needs $

Borrower

Issuer or seller

Debtholder

Cost of borrowing

Interest Paid (Expense) –

generates tax benefit (Svgs)

Cost of Debt

= R

d

or K

d

;

After-tax cost = R

d

(1-t)

Asset

Has $

Lender

Buyer or Investor

Bondholder

Creditor

Requires return to invest

$ in bonds based on risk

Interest Received (earned)

(Revenue) - pay tax on it

Capital Appreciation

25

26

Key Features of a Bond

Par value: Face amount; paid at

maturity. Assume $1,000.

Coupon interest rate: Stated interest

rate. Multiply by par value to get

dollars of interest. Generally fixed.

(More…)

Key Features of a Bond

Maturity: Years until bond must be

repaid. Declines.

Issue date: Date when bond was

issued.

Default risk: Risk that issuer will not

make interest or principal payments.

27

Value of Financial Security

Value of any asset based on the net present

value of the expected future cash flows

discounted by the interest (discount) rate

that reflects risk factors

Discount (interest rate) depends on:

Riskiness of CFs reflected by DRP, MRP, LP

General level of interest rates, which reflects

inflation, supply & demand for $, production

opportunities, time preferences for consumption

28

29

Value of a 10-year, 10%

coupon bond if r

d

= 10%

V

B

=

$100 $1,000

. . .

+

$100

100 100

0 1 2 10

10%

100 + 1,000

V = ?

...

= $90.91 + . . . + $38.55 + $385.54

= $1,000.

+ +

(1 + r

d

)

1

(1 + r

d

)

N

(1 + r

d

)

N

30

10 10 100 1000

N I/YR PV PMT FV

-1,000

$ 614.46

385.54

$1,000.00

PV annuity

PV maturity value

Value of bond

=

=

=

INPUTS

OUTPUT

The bond consists of a 10-year, 10%

annuity of $100/year plus a $1,000 lump

sum at t = 10:

31

When market interest rate (r

d

)rises above

coupon rate, bond’s value (PV or price)

falls below par, so sells @ discount.

10 13 100 1000

N I/YR PV PMT FV

-837.21

INPUTS

OUTPUT

What would happen if expected inflation

rose by 3%, causing r = 13%?

32

9 13 100 1000

N I/YR PV PMT FV

-846.05

INPUTS

OUTPUT

What happens if one year passes but the

market i stays at 13%?

33

8 13 100 1000

N I/YR PV PMT FV

-856.04

INPUTS

OUTPUT

What happens if a second year passes but

the market i stays at 13%?

34

1 13 100 1000

N I/YR PV PMT FV

-973.45

INPUTS

OUTPUT

What happens if 9 years pass but the

market i stays at 13%?

As a bond approaches maturity, it’s price

approaches the face or maturity value of $1000

Bond Pricing in Excel

35

Years to Mat: 10

Coupon rate: 10%

Annual Pmt: $100

Par value = FV: $1,000

Going rate, r

d

: 10%

36

What would happen if inflation

fell, and r

d

declined to 7%?

If coupon rate > mrkt i% (r

d

), price rises

above par, and bond sells at a premium.

10 7 100 1000

N I/YR PV PMT FV

-1,210.71

INPUTS

OUTPUT

Bond Pricing in Excel

Years to Mat: 10

Coupon rate: 10%

Annual Pmt: $100

Par value = FV: $1,000

Going rate, r

d

: 7%

PV = ? $1210.71

37

Summary of Bond price and

interest rate relationships

If market rate of interest increases

above the stated (coupon) rate, then

bond’s price falls and sells at discount

If market rate of interest drops below

the stated (coupon) rate, then bond’s

price increases and sells at a premium

**INVERSE RELATIONSHIP b/w Market

i% and Bond’s PRICE!***

38

39

Bond prices & changing

interest rates

Suppose the bond was issued 20 years

ago and now has 10 years to maturity.

What would happen to its value over

time if required rate of return remained

at 10%, or at 13%, or at 7%?

40

M

1,372

1,211

1,000

837

775

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

r

d

= 7%.

r

d

= 13%.

r

d

= 10%.

Bond Value ($) vs Years

remaining to Maturity

41

Bond Price Movements over time

At maturity, value of any bond must

equal its par value.

Value of a premium bond decreases to

$1,000.

Value of a discount bond increases to

$1,000.

A par bond stays at $1,000 if mrkt i%

(r

d

)remains constant.

42

What’s market value of 10 year 10%

coupon bond when market = 7%?

Bond sells at a premium::

Price today = $1,210.71.

10 7 100 1000

N I/YR PV PMT FV

?

INPUTS

OUTPUT

43

If you buy a 10%, 10 year bond

today for $1,210.71, and hold it to

maturity, what’s your rate of return?

Solve for i% = 7% = Yield to maturity

(YTM)

10 (1210.71) 100 1000

N I/YR PV PMT FV

?

INPUTS

OUTPUT

44

What’s “yield to maturity”?

YTM is rate of return earned on a bond held to

maturity. Also called “promised yield.”

It assumes bond will not default.

Includes both interest pmt component & cap gains

over bond’s life

Interest rate equating bond’s price today to NPV of

PMTs & FV. (Think market rate of interest)

Vs. Annualized Return which reflects only a one-

year holding period

45

YTM on a 10-year, 9% annual coupon,

$1,000 par value bond selling for $887

90 90 90

0 1 9 10

r

d

=?

1,000

PV

1

.

.

.

PV

10

PV

M

887

Find i % (r

d)

that “works”!

...

46

10 -887 90 1000

N I/YR PV PMT FV

10.91

V

INT M

B

=

(1 + r

d

)

1

(1 + r

d

)

N

...

+

INT

887

90

(1 + r

d

)

1

1,000

(1 + r

d

)

N

=

+

90

(1 + r

d

)

N

+ +

+ +

INPUTS

OUTPUT

...

Find YTM (i % or r

d)

(1 + r

d

)

N

YTM in Excel

Years to Mat: 10

Coupon rate: 9%

Annual Pmt: $90.00

Current price: $887.00

Par value = FV: $1,000.00

47

48

Bond Prices & Int. Rates

If coupon rate < mrkt i % (r

d

), bond

sells at a discount.

If coupon rate = i %, bond sells at its

par value.

If coupon rate > i%, bond sells at a

premium.

If market i% rises, price falls.

Price = par at maturity.

49

Find YTM if price were

$1,134.20.

Sells at a premium. Because

coupon = 9% > mrkt i% =

7.08%, bond’s value > par.

10 -1134.2 90 1000

N I/YR PV PMT FV

7.08

INPUTS

OUTPUT

50

Definitions

Current yield = “Interest Yield”

Capital gains yield =Change in value

= YTM = +

Exp total

return

Exp

Curr yld

Exp cap

gains yld

51

Definitions

Current yield =

Capital gains yield =

= YTM = +

Annual coupon pmt

Current price

Change in price

Beginning price

Exp total

return

Exp

Curr yld

Exp cap

gains yld

52

9% coupon, 10-year bond, P =

$887, and YTM = 10.91%

Current yield =

= 0.1015 = 10.15%.

$90

$887

53

Cap gains yield = YTM - Current yield

= 10.91% - 10.15%

= 0.76%.

Could also find values in Years 1 and 2,

get difference, and divide by value in

Year 1. Same answer.

YTM = Current yield + Capital

gains yield.

54

Semiannual Bonds

1. Multiply years by 2 to get periods = 2N.

2. Divide nominal rate by 2 to get periodic

rate = r

d

/2.

3. Divide annual INT by 2 to get PMT =

INT/2.

2N r

d

/2 OK INT/2 OK

N I/YR PV PMT FV

INPUTS

OUTPUT

55

2(10) 13/2 100/2

20 6.5 50 1000

N I/YR PV PMT FV

-834.72

INPUTS

OUTPUT

Value of 10-year, 10% coupon,

semiannual bond if rd = 13%.

56

Spreadsheet Functions

for Bond Valuation

PRICE

YIELD

57

Call Provision

Issuer can refund if rates decline. That

helps the issuer but hurts the investor.

Therefore, borrowers are willing to pay

more, and lenders require more, on callable

bonds.

Most bonds have a deferred call and a

declining call premium

Yield to call: yearly rate of return earned on

a bond until it’s called

58

Callable Bonds and Yield to

Call

A 10-year, 10% semiannual coupon,

$1,000 par value bond is selling for

$1,135.90 with an 8% yield to maturity.

It can be called after 5 years at $1,050.

59

10 -1135.9 50 1050

N I/YR PV PMT FV

3.765 x 2 = 7.53%

INPUTS

OUTPUT

Nominal Yield to Call (YTC)

60

If you bought bonds, would you be

more likely to earn YTM or YTC?

Coupon rate = 10% vs. YTC = r

d

=

7.53%. Could raise money by selling

new bonds which pay 7.53%.

Could thus replace bonds which pay

$100/year with bonds that pay only

$75.30/year.

Investors should expect a call, hence

YTC = 7.53%, not YTM = 8%.

61

Investor returns on callable

bonds

In general, if a bond sells at a premium,

then coupon > market rate, so a call is

likely.

So, investors expect to earn:

YTC on premium bonds.

YTM on par & discount bonds.

62

What’s a sinking fund?

Provision to pay off a loan over its life

rather than all at maturity.

Similar to amortization on a term loan.

Reduces risk to investor, shortens

average maturity.

But not good for investors if rates

decline after issuance.

63

Sinking funds are generally

handled in 2 ways

Call x% at par per year for sinking

fund purposes.

Call if r

d

is below the coupon rate and bond

sells at a premium.

Buy bonds on open market.

Use open market purchase if r

d

is above

coupon rate and bond sells at a discount.

64

Bond Ratings

% defaulting within:

S&P and Fitch Moody’s 1 yr. 5 yrs.

Investment grade bonds:

AAA Aaa 0.0 0.0

AA Aa 0.0 0.1

A A 0.1 0.6

BBB Baa 0.3 2.9

Junk bonds:

BB Ba 1.4 8.2

B B 1.8 9.2

CCC Caa 22.3 36.9

Source: Fitch Ratings

65

Bond Ratings and Bond

Spreads (YahooFinance, March 2009)

Long-term Bonds Yield (%) Spread (%)

10-Year T-bond

2.68

AAA

5.50 2.82

AA

5.62 2.94

A

5.79 3.11

BBB

7.53 4.85

BB

11.62 8.94

B

13.70 11.02

CCC

26.30 23.62

66

What factors affect default risk

and bond ratings?

Financial ratios

Debt ratio

Coverage ratios, such as interest coverage

ratio or EBITDA coverage ratio

Profitability ratios

Current ratios

(More…)

67

Bond Ratings Median Ratios

(S&P)

Interest

coverage

Return on

capital

Debt to

capital

AAA 23.8 27.6% 12.4%

AA 19.5 27.0% 28.3%

A 8.0 17.5% 37.5%

BBB 4.7 13.4% 42.5%

BB 2.5 11.3% 53.7%

B 1.2 8.7% 75.9%

CCC 0.4 3.2% 113.5%

68

Other Factors that Affect Bond

Ratings

Provisions in the bond contract

Secured versus unsecured debt

Senior versus subordinated debt

Guarantee provisions

Sinking fund provisions

Debt maturity

(More…)

69

Other factors

Earnings stability

Regulatory environment

Potential product liability

Accounting policies

70

Interest rate (or price) risk for 1-

year and 10-year 10% bonds

i %

1-year

Change

10-year

Change

5% $1,048 $1,386

10% 1,000

4.8%

1,000

38.6%

15% 956

4.4%

749

25.1%

Interest rate risk: Rising mrkt i %

(r

d

) causes bond’s price to fall.

71

0

500

1,000

1,500

0% 5% 10% 15%

1-year

10-year

r

d

Value

72

What is reinvestment rate

risk?

The risk that CFs will have to be

reinvested at future lower rates,

reducing income.

Illustration: Suppose you just won

$500,000 playing the lottery. You’ll

invest the money and live off interest.

You buy a 1-year bond with a YTM of

10%.

73

Year 1 income = $50,000. At year-end

get back $500,000 to reinvest.

If rates fall to 3%, income will drop

from $50,000 to $15,000. Had you

bought 30-year bonds, income would

have remained constant.

74

The Maturity Risk Premium

Long-term bonds: High interest rate risk, low

reinvestment rate risk.

Short-term bonds: Low interest rate risk,

high reinvestment rate risk.

Nothing is riskless!

Yields on longer term bonds usually are

greater than on shorter term bonds, so the

MRP is more affected by interest rate risk

than by reinvestment rate risk.

Other types of Bonds

Zero coupon:

Pays no coupon & sells @ disct below par

Convertible:

To stock @fixed price @ bondholder’s option

Income:

Pays interest only if interest earned by issuer;

won’t bankrupt co.

75

Other types of Bonds

Revenue:

Interest paid from revenue generated by project

being financed by bonds

Floating rate:

Adjusts coupon rate periodically based on

market interest rates

76

77

Bankruptcy

Two main chapters of Federal

Bankruptcy Act:

Chapter 11, Reorganization

Chapter 7, Liquidation

Typically, company wants Chapter 11,

creditors may prefer Chapter 7.

78

If company can’t meet its obligations, it files

under Chapter 11. That stops creditors from

foreclosing, taking assets, and shutting down

the business.

Company has 120 days to file a

reorganization plan.

Court appoints a “trustee” to supervise

reorganization.

Management usually stays in control.

79

Company must demonstrate in its

reorganization plan that it is “worth

more alive than dead.”

Otherwise, judge will order liquidation

under Chapter 7.

80

If the company is liquidated,

here’s the payment priority:

Past due property taxes

Secured creditors from sales of secured assets.

Trustee’s costs

Expenses incurred after bankruptcy filing

Wages and unpaid benefit contributions, subject to

limits

Unsecured customer deposits, subject to limits

Taxes

Unfunded pension liabilities

Unsecured creditors

Preferred stock

Common stock

81

In a liquidation, unsecured creditors generally

get zero. This makes them more willing to

participate in reorganization even though

their claims are greatly scaled back.

Various groups of creditors vote on the

reorganization plan. If both the majority of

the creditors and the judge approve,

company “emerges” from bankruptcy with

lower debts, reduced interest charges, and a

chance for success.

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