1 1

Natalie Batalha
San Jose State University
Kepler’s Exoplanet Survey:
Honing in on eta-Earth
2
• Planet Confirmations
• KOI Catalog
• Completeness
3
Kepler-8
(2)
Kepler-10
(6)
Kepler-11
(3)
Kepler-9
Kepler-6
Kepler-4
TrES-2
HAT-p-7
Kepler-5
HAT-p-11
Kepler-7
Feb 2011
4
Kepler-8
KOI-428
(2)
Kepler-10
(6)
Kepler-11
(3)
Kepler-9
Kepler-14
Kepler-6
Kepler-4
Kepler-16
KOI-196
TrES-2
HAT-p-7
Kepler-19
(2)
Kepler-13
Kepler-15
KOI-423
Kepler-5
HAT-p-11
Kepler-17
(3)
Kepler-18
Kepler-21
Kepler-22
Kepler-7
Kepler-12
Dec 2011
5
Kepler-8
KOI-428
(2)
Kepler-10
(6)
Kepler-11
(3)
Kepler-9
Kepler-14
Kepler-7
Kepler-6
Kepler-12
Kepler-4
Kepler-16
TrES-2
HAT-p-7
Kepler-19
(2)
Kepler-13
Kepler-15
KOI-423
Kepler-5
HAT-p-11
Kepler-17
(3)
Kepler-18
Kepler-21
Kepler-22
Buchhave et al. 2011 ApJS 197 3
6 6
Kepler-8
KOI-428
(2)
Kepler-10
(6)
Kepler-11
(3)
Kepler-9
Kepler-14
Kepler-7
Kepler-6
Kepler-12
Kepler-4
Kepler-16
TrES-2
HAT-p-7
Kepler-19
(2)
Kepler-13
Kepler-15
KOI-423
Kepler-5
HAT-p-11
Kepler-17
(3)
Kepler-18
Kepler-21
Kepler-22
Lissauer et al. 2011, Nature, 470, 53
7
Kepler-8
KOI-428
(2)
Kepler-10
(6)
Kepler-11
(3)
Kepler-9
Kepler-14
Kepler-7
Kepler-6
Kepler-12
Kepler-4
Kepler-16
TrES-2
HAT-p-7
Kepler-19
Kepler-13
Kepler-15
KOI-423
Kepler-5
HAT-p-11
Kepler-17
(3)
Kepler-18
Kepler-21
Kepler-22
Ballard et al 2011, arXiv:1109.1561
8
Kepler-8
KOI-428
(2)
Kepler-10
(6)
Kepler-11
(3)
Kepler-9
Kepler-14
Kepler-7
Kepler-6
Kepler-12
Kepler-4
Kepler-16
KOI-196
TrES-2
HAT-p-7
Kepler-19
(2)
Kepler-13
Kepler-15
KOI-423
Kepler-5
HAT-p-11
Kepler-17
(3)
Kepler-18
Kepler-21
Kepler-22
Doyle et al 2011, Science, 333, 1602
9
Kepler-8
KOI-428
(2)
Kepler-10
(6)
Kepler-11
(3)
Kepler-9
Kepler-14
Kepler-7
Kepler-6
Kepler-12
Kepler-4
Kepler-16
TrES-2
HAT-p-7
Kepler-19
(2)
Kepler-13
Kepler-15
KOI-423
Kepler-5
HAT-p-11
Kepler-17
(3)
Kepler-18
Kepler-21
Kepler-22
10
Kepler-8
KOI-428
(2)
Kepler-10
(6)
Kepler-11
(3)
Kepler-9
Kepler-14
Kepler-7
Kepler-6
Kepler-12
Kepler-4
Kepler-16
TrES-2
HAT-p-7
Kepler-19
(2)
Kepler-13
Kepler-15
KOI-423
Kepler-5
HAT-p-11
Kepler-17
(3)
Kepler-18
Kepler-21
Kepler-22
11
Filling in the Mass-Radius Diagram
12
Kepler-8
KOI-428
(2)
Kepler-10
(6)
Kepler-11
(3)
Kepler-9
Kepler-14
Kepler-7
Kepler-6
Kepler-12
Kepler-4
Kepler-16
TrES-2
HAT-p-7
Kepler-19
(2)
Kepler-13
Kepler-15
KOI-423
Kepler-5
HAT-p-11
Kepler-17
(3)
Kepler-18
Kepler-21
Kepler-22
13
Accelerated Data Release
Recognizing the high demand for data, the project has
revised its Data Release Policies, providing for a
significantly accelerated schedule.

• September 23, 2011: Quarter 3
• January 7, 2012: Quarter 4 through Quarter 6
• July, 2012
• October, 2012
http://archive.stsci.edu/kepler

http://nexsci.caltech.edu/

14
• Planet Confirmations
• KOI Catalog
• Completeness
15


15
Candidates as of June 2010
Q0-Q1: May-June 2009
Orbital Period in days
S
i
z
e

R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

t
o

E
a
r
t
h

Jun 2010
16
Candidates as of Feb 2011
Q0-Q5: May 2009 - Jun 2010
Orbital Period in days
S
i
z
e

R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

t
o

E
a
r
t
h

Jun 2010
Feb 2011
17
Orbital Period in days
S
i
z
e

R
e
l
a
t
i
v
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t
o

E
a
r
t
h

Candidates as of Dec 2011
Q0-Q6: May 2009 - Sep 2010
Jun 2010
Feb 2011 Dec 2011
18
Improved Vetting Statistics
0.2 arcsec source offset
9.1 arcsec source offset
19
• earth-size: 207 (+204%)
• super-earth-size: 680 (+136%)
• neptune-size: 1,181 (+78%)
• jupiter-size: 203 (+23%)
• larger: 27 (+42%)
Size Distribution
20
Size Distribution: Feb vs Dec
Size Relative to Earth
21
Equilibrium Temperature [K]
S
i
z
e

R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

t
o

E
a
r
t
h

Jun 2010
Feb 2011 Dec 2011
HZ Candidates
48 with T
eq
between 185 and 303 K
22
Equilibrium Temperature [K]
S
i
z
e

R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

t
o

E
a
r
t
h

Jun 2010
Feb 2011 Dec 2011
HZ Candidates
Ten with R
p
< 2 R
e
(185 K < T
eq
< 303 K)
23
Orbital Period in days
S
i
z
e

R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

t
o

E
a
r
t
h

The Multiples
two - 247 three - 83 four - 28 five - 8 one - 1425
Distribution of Planet Diameters
For Orbital Periods < 50 Days
dN/dlogR=kR
α

k=2.9±0.5
α=-1.92±0.11
Howard et al. 2011, arXiv: 1103.2541
25
• Planet Confirmations
• KOI Catalog
• Completeness
26
Factors Affecting Completeness
1) Multi-Quarter Transit Search:
-Feb 2011 catalog: analysis of Q0-Q5 data based on non-
pipeline tools to detect long-period events.
-Didn’t benefit from pipeline whitening filters
27
Factors Affecting Completeness
2) Sudden Pixel Sensitivity Dropouts:
Transit detection analysis keys off on anomalous event
instead of real transits.
Original flux
PDC
PDC-MAP
28
Factors Affecting Completeness
3) Pre-search Data Conditioning:
First generation filters occasionally introduced high frequency
noise. This has been greatly improved with PDC-MAP.
Original flux
PDC
PDC-MAP
29
• Planet Confirmations
• KOI Catalog
• Completeness
• Looking Forward
30
Stellar Noise: simulation vs observation
Nature 477, 142-143 (Sept 6, 2011)
31
Stellar Noise: simulation vs observation
Range of solar variability.
Gilliland et al. 2011 arXiv: 1107.5207
Simulated:
instrument: 17.3 ppm
stars: 10 ppm
total: 20 ppm

Observed:
instrument: 21.4
stars: 19.5
total: 29 ppm

45% higher than
expected
32
Stellar Noise: simulation vs observation
6.5-hr variability is stochastic and will average out over
multiple orbits
The goal of true
Earth-analogs is
reachable by
extending the
mission length
EXTENDED MISSION
34 34
Life is about the people you meet and the things you create with them.
35
Extended Mission
• Communications
K
a
-band data rate expected to drop from 4.3 Mbits/s to 3.9 Mbits/s
in Summer 2012.
Lengthening the monthly contacts slightly will allow us to maintain
170k targets throughout primary mission.
Flexibility via target management, downlink duration, and downlink
frequency thereafter.
• Propellant:
Hydrazine is used by the thrusters which de-spin the reaction
wheels used to point the telescope.
Based on current and predicted use and adding margin for safe-
modes, there is sufficient fuel to operate until Sep 2020.
36
20-ppm
30 ppm
1.2-R
e
, P=365 d 1.0-R
e
, P=365 d
1.0-R
e
, P=365 d
1.0-R
e
, P=225 d
Stellar Noise: simulation vs observation
6.5-hr variability is stochastic and will average out over
multiple orbits
Jenkins et al.: Poster 19.14
The goal of true
Earth-analogs is
reachable by
extending the
mission length

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