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Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Knowing What to Do
Knowing How to Do It
Getting Better Every Day
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Acceptance Sampling
I
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What you will learn
The purpose of Sampling
How to draw a statistically valid Sample
How to Develop a Sampling Plan
How to construct an O-C curve for your sampling
plan
How to use (and understand) ANSI/ASQ Z1.4
How to use ANSI/ASQ Z1.9
Assessing Inspection Economics
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What is Sampling
Sampling refers to the practice of evaluating
(inspecting) a portion -the sample - of a lot the
population for the purpose of inferring information
about the lot.
Statistically speaking, the properties of the sample
distribution are used to infer the properties of the
population (lot) distribution.
An accept/reject decision is normally made based on
the results of the sample
Sampling is an Audit practice
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Why Sample?
Economy
Less inspection labor
Less time
Less handling damage
Provides check on process control
Fewer errors ???
i.e. inspection accuracy

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What does Sampling not do?
Does not provide detailed information of lot quality
Does not provide judgment of fitness for use (of
rejected items)
Does not guarantee elimination of defectives any
AQL permits defectives

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Sampling Caveats
Size of sample is more important than percentage of lot
Only random samples are statistically valid
Access to samples does not guarantee randomness
Acceptance sampling can place focus on wrong place
Supplier should provide evidence of quality
Focus should be on process control
Misuse of sampling plans can be costly and misleading.
No such thing as a single representative sample
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Representative Sample?
There is no such thing as a single
representative sample
Why?
Draw repeated samples of 5 from a normally
distributed population.
Record the X-bar (mean) and s (std.dev) for each
sample
What is the result?

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Distribution of Means
The Distribution of Means obeys normal distribution regardless of
distribution of parent population.
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Standard Error of the Mean
Central Limit Theorem
The relationship of the standard deviation of sample
means to the standard deviation of the population
Note: For a uniform distribution, Underestimates error by 25% with
n=2, but only by 5% with n=6
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The Random Sample
At any one time, each of the remaining items in the
population has an equal chance of being the next
item selected
One method is to use a table of Random Numbers
(handout from Grant & Leavenworth)
Enter the table Randomly ( like pin-the-tail-on-the-
donkey)
Proceed in a predetermined direction up, down, across
Discard numbers which cannot be applied to the sample
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Random Number Table
Source: Statistical Quality Control by Grant &
Leavenworth
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Stratified Sampling
Random samples are selected from a homogeneous lot.
Often, the parts may not be homogeneous because they were
produced on different machines, by different operators, in
different plants, etc.
With stratified sampling, random samples are drawn from
each group of processes that are different from other groups.
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Selecting the Sample
Wrong way to select sample
Judgement: often leads to Bias
Convenience
Right ways to select sample
Randomly
Systematically: e.g. every nth unit; risk of bias occurs
when selection routine matches a process pattern
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The O-C Curve
Operating Characteristic Curve
P
a
Percent Defective
Ideal O-C Curve
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The Typical O-C Curve
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Sampling Terms
AQL Acceptable Quality Level: The worst quality
level that can be considered acceptable.
Acceptance Number: the largest number of defective
units permitted in the sample to accept a lot usually
designated as A
c
or c
AOQ Average Outgoing Quality: The expected
quality of outgoing product, after sampling, for a
given value of percent defective in the incoming
product. AOQ = p * P
a
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Sampling Terms (cont.)
AOQL Average Outgoing Quality Level: For a
given O-C curve, the maximum value of AOQ.
Rejection Number smallest number of defective
units in the sample which will cause the lot to be
rejected usually designated as R
e

Sample Size number of items in sample usually
designated by n
Lot Size number of items in the lot (population)
usually designated by N
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Sampling Risks
Producers Risk : calling the population bad
when it is good; also called Type I error

Consumers Risk : calling the population good
when it is bad; also called Type II error
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Sampling Risks (cont)
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Acceptance Sampling
II
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Constructing the O-C curve
We will do the following O-C curves
Use Hyper-geometric and Poisson for each of the
following
N=60, n=6, A
c
= 2
N=200, n=20, A
c
= 2
N=1000, n=100, A
c
= 2
N=1000, n=6, A
c
= 2

Lets do k (A
c
, c - # of successes) = 0 first

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Hyper-geometric
The number of distinct combination of n items
taken r at a time is
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Hyper-geometric (cont)
Construct the following Table
p D=Np P(k=0) P(k=1) P(k=2) P(k 2)
0 %
1%
2%
3%
etc.
A Hyper-geometric calculator can be found at www.stattrek.com
Note: The Hyper-geometric distribution applies when the population, N, is
small compared to the sample size, however, it can always be used.
Sampling is done without replacement.

= (
D
C
k

Nq
C
n-k
) /
N
C
n
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Hypergeometric Calculator
N = 100 D=Defects in Pop.
n = 10
p D=Np Nq=N-Np P(k=0) P(k=1) P(k=2) P(k 2)
K 0 1 2
0% 0 100 1 1
1% 1 99 0.9 0.1 1
2% 2 98 0.809091 0.181818 0.009091 1
3% 3 97 0.726531 0.247681 0.025046 0.999258
4% 4 96 0.651631 0.2996 0.045961 0.997192
5% 5 95 0.583752 0.339391 0.070219 0.993362
6% 6 94 0.522305 0.368686 0.096458 0.987449
7% 7 93 0.46674 0.38895 0.123549 0.97924
t ot al
successes
in Popl.
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Hypergeometric Calculator
Example: p=0.02, k=0, N=100,
n=10
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Hypergeometric Calculator
Example: p=0.02, k=0, N=100, n=10
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Hypergeometric Calculator
Example: p=0.02, k=0, N=100, n=10

P (k=0) = 0.809091
P (k=1) = 0.181818
P (k=2) = 0.009091
-----------------------
P(k2) = 1.0
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From QCI-CQE Primer 2005, pVI-9
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Poisson
Construct the following Table, using the Poisson Cumulative Table
p np P (k 2)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
etc.
Compare. When is Poisson a good approximation
Use the Poisson when n/N0.1 and np 5.
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Poisson Calculator
Example: p=0.02, n=10, c=0
X=k, the number of successes in the sample, i.e. c
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Poisson Calculator
Example: p=0.02, n=10, c=0
Mean = np
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Poisson Calculator
Example: p=0.02, n=10, c=0
TRUE for cumulative, i.e. k; FALSE for probability mass function, i.e.p(x=k)
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From QCI-CQE Primer 2005, pVI-8
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From QCI-CQE Primer 2005, pVI-8
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From QCI-CQE Primer 2005, pVI-9
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O-C Curve & AOQ
Determine the O-C curve.
Prepare the following Table using the Poisson distribution
p P
a
AOQ = p * P
a

0%
1%
2%
3%
etc
Graph the results: P
a
and AOQ vs p.
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OC Curve & AOQ (2)
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OC Curve & AOQ (3)
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Acceptance Sampling
III
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Questions
1. What if this AOQ is not adequate?
2. What if you would like to add a 2
nd
sample when
the first sample fails?

Example
OC curve after 1
st
Sample:
p=0.02, n=30, N=500, c (A
c
)=0, R
e
=2
OC curve after 2
nd
Sample (of 30 more):
p=0.02, n=60, N=500, c (A
c
)= 1, R
e
=2

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Hypergeometric Multiple Sampling
N = 500 500 500 500
n = 30 60 60 60

p D=Np Nq=N-Np P(k=0) P(k=0) P(k=1) P(k 1)
K 0 0 1
0.00 0 500 1 1 1
0.01 5 495 0.73 0.53 0.36 0.89
0.02 10 490 0.54 0.28 0.38 0.66
0.03 15 485 0.39 0.14 0.30 0.44
0.04 20 480 0.28 0.07 0.21 0.28
0.05 25 475 0.20 0.04 0.14 0.17
0.06 30 470 0.15 0.02 0.08 0.10
0.07 35 465 0.11 0.01 0.05 0.06
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Hypergeometric Multiple Sampling
Hypergeometric Multiple Sample
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07
Lot defective
P
r
o
b

o
f

A
c
c
e
p
t
a
n
c
e
N=500, n=30, c=0 N=500, n=60, c=1
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ANSI/ASQC Z1.4-1993
Mil-Std 105
Sampling for Attributes; 95 page Document
P
a
s from 83% to 99%
Information necessary: N, AQL, Inspection Level


How to Use
Code Letters
Single, Double, Multiple Plans
Switching Rules
Obtain: n, A
c
, R
e
,
O-C Curves

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ANSI/ASQC Z1.4-1993
Exercises
N=475, AQL = 0.1%, Single Plan, Normal
What is Code Letter
What is Sample Size,
What is A
c,
R
e
Repeat for Tightened Inspection
Repeat for Reduced Inspection

Note: 0.1% is 1000 ppm
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Z1.4 Code Letters
I-Reduced, II-Normal, III-tightened |||| For N=475, Normal, code letter is H
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Z1.4 Single Plan Normal Insp.
Table II-A
n=125, New code Letter K
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Z1.4 O-C Curve for Code Letter K
Table X-K
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Z1.4 Switching Rules
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ANSI/ASQC Z1.4-1993

What happens when AQL = . 1% isnt
good enough
AQL = 0.1% => 1000 ppm

Is Z1.4 Adequate?
How would you decide?
If not, what would you do?
Construct O-C curve for n=1000, c=0 (Poisson). Use
100ppm < p < 5000 ppm (see slides 38 & 39)
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ANSI/ASQC Z1.9-1993
Mil-Std 414
Sampling for Variables; 110 page Document

Four Sections in the document
Section A: General description of Plans
Section B: Plans used when variability is unknown
(Std. deviation method is used)
Section C: Plans used when variability is unknown
(range method is used)
Section D: Plans used when the variability is known.

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ANSI/ASQC Z1.9-1993
Mil-Std 414
Information necessary: N, AQL, Inspection Level
How to Use
Code Letters
Single or Double Limit, Std. Dev or Range Method Plans
Switching Rules
Obtain: Code Letter, n, Accept/Reject criteria,
critical statistic (k)
O-C Curves

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ANSI/ASQC Z1.9-1993
Exercise (From QCI, CQE Primer, pVI-37)
The specified max. temp for operation of a device is
209F. A lot of 40 is submitted for inspection. Use
Normal (Level II) with AQL = 0.75%. The Std.
Dev. is unknown.
Use Std. Dev. Method, variation unknown
Find Code Letter, Sample Size, k
Should lot be accepted or rejected
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Z1.9 Code Letters
For N=40, AQL=0.75 |||||| Use AQL=1.0 & Code Letter D
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Z1.9 Finding Decision Criteria
Std. Dev method Table B-1
For Code Letter D, n=5 & AQL=1, k=1.52
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ANSI/ASQC Z1.9-1993
What is k

k is a critical statistic (term used in hypothesis testing).
It defines the maximum area of the distribution which can be
above the USL.
When Q
calc
> k, there is less of distribution above Q
calc
than above
k and lot is accepted. (Compare to Z table)
Increasing (USL - X-bar) increases P
a
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ANSI/ASQC Z1.9-1993
Exercise Solution
The five reading are 197F, 188F, 184F, 205F, 201F.
X-bar (mean) = 195F
S (Std. Dev) = 8.8F
Q
calc
= (USL X-bar)/s = 1.59
Because Q
calc
= 1.59 is greater than k=1.52, lot is
accepted
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Z1.9 OC Curve for D
Table A-3 (p9)
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ANSI/ASQC Z1.9-1993

Another Exercise

Same information as before
AQL = 0.1
Find Code Letter, n, k
Accept or Reject Lot?
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Solution 2
nd
Exercise
New code letter is E, n=7, & k=2.22

The seven reading are 197F, 188F, 184F, 205F, 201F,
193F & 197F.
X-bar (mean) = 195F
S (std. Dev) = 7.3F
Q
calc
= (USL X-bar)/s = 1.91
Because Q
calc
= 1.91 is less than k=2.22, lot is
rejected

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Inspection Economics
Average Total Inspection: The average number
of devices inspected per lot by the defined sampling
plan
ATI = n P
a
+ N(1- P
a
)
which assumes each rejected lot is 100% inspected.
Average Fraction Inspected:
AFI = ATI/N
Average Outgoing Quality:
AOQ = AQL (1 AFI)
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Inspection Economics
Exercise (from Grant & Leavenworth, p395)
AQL = 0.5%, N=1000
Which sampling plan would have least ATI.
n = 100, c = 0
n = 170, c = 1
n = 240, c = 2
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Inspection Economics
Exercise Solution
N 1000 1000 1000
n 100 170 240
c 0 1 2
P
a
0.59 0.8 0.92
n P
a
59 136 220.8
N(1- P
a
) 410 200 80
ATI 460 336 300.8
AFI 0.460 0.336 0.301
AOQ 0.0027 0.00332 .00349
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Inspection Economics
Comparison of Cost Alternatives
No Inspection
NpD
100% Inspection
NC
Sampling
nC + (N-n)pDP
a
+ (N-n)(1-P
a
)C

D = Cost if defective passes; C = Inspection cost/item
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Inspection Economics
Sample Size Break-Even Point

n
BE
= D/C

D = Cost if defective passes; C = Inspection cost/item

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Resources
American Society for Quality
Quality Press
www.asq.org
ASQ/NC A&T partnership quality courses
CQIA, CMI, CQT, CQA, CQMgr, CQE, CSSBB
Quality Progress Magazine
And others
Web-Sites
www.stattrek.com excellent basic stat site
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ - greaqt math and stat site