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20101129 1

Knowing What to Do

Knowing How to Do It

Getting Better Every Day

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 2

Acceptance Sampling

I

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 3

What you will learn

The purpose of Sampling

How to draw a statistically valid Sample

How to Develop a Sampling Plan

How to construct an O-C curve for your sampling

plan

How to use (and understand) ANSI/ASQ Z1.4

How to use ANSI/ASQ Z1.9

Assessing Inspection Economics

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 4

What is Sampling

Sampling refers to the practice of evaluating

(inspecting) a portion -the sample - of a lot the

population for the purpose of inferring information

about the lot.

Statistically speaking, the properties of the sample

distribution are used to infer the properties of the

population (lot) distribution.

An accept/reject decision is normally made based on

the results of the sample

Sampling is an Audit practice

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20101129 5

Why Sample?

Economy

Less inspection labor

Less time

Less handling damage

Provides check on process control

Fewer errors ???

i.e. inspection accuracy

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What does Sampling not do?

Does not provide detailed information of lot quality

Does not provide judgment of fitness for use (of

rejected items)

Does not guarantee elimination of defectives any

AQL permits defectives

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20101129 7

Sampling Caveats

Size of sample is more important than percentage of lot

Only random samples are statistically valid

Access to samples does not guarantee randomness

Acceptance sampling can place focus on wrong place

Supplier should provide evidence of quality

Focus should be on process control

Misuse of sampling plans can be costly and misleading.

No such thing as a single representative sample

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 8

Representative Sample?

There is no such thing as a single

representative sample

Why?

Draw repeated samples of 5 from a normally

distributed population.

Record the X-bar (mean) and s (std.dev) for each

sample

What is the result?

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 9

Distribution of Means

The Distribution of Means obeys normal distribution regardless of

distribution of parent population.

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20101129 10

Standard Error of the Mean

Central Limit Theorem

The relationship of the standard deviation of sample

means to the standard deviation of the population

Note: For a uniform distribution, Underestimates error by 25% with

n=2, but only by 5% with n=6

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20101129 11

The Random Sample

At any one time, each of the remaining items in the

population has an equal chance of being the next

item selected

One method is to use a table of Random Numbers

(handout from Grant & Leavenworth)

Enter the table Randomly ( like pin-the-tail-on-the-

donkey)

Proceed in a predetermined direction up, down, across

Discard numbers which cannot be applied to the sample

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Random Number Table

Source: Statistical Quality Control by Grant &

Leavenworth

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20101129 13

Stratified Sampling

Random samples are selected from a homogeneous lot.

Often, the parts may not be homogeneous because they were

produced on different machines, by different operators, in

different plants, etc.

With stratified sampling, random samples are drawn from

each group of processes that are different from other groups.

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 14

Selecting the Sample

Wrong way to select sample

Judgement: often leads to Bias

Convenience

Right ways to select sample

Randomly

Systematically: e.g. every nth unit; risk of bias occurs

when selection routine matches a process pattern

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 15

The O-C Curve

Operating Characteristic Curve

P

a

Percent Defective

Ideal O-C Curve

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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The Typical O-C Curve

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 17

Sampling Terms

AQL Acceptable Quality Level: The worst quality

level that can be considered acceptable.

Acceptance Number: the largest number of defective

units permitted in the sample to accept a lot usually

designated as A

c

or c

AOQ Average Outgoing Quality: The expected

quality of outgoing product, after sampling, for a

given value of percent defective in the incoming

product. AOQ = p * P

a

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 18

Sampling Terms (cont.)

AOQL Average Outgoing Quality Level: For a

given O-C curve, the maximum value of AOQ.

Rejection Number smallest number of defective

units in the sample which will cause the lot to be

rejected usually designated as R

e

Sample Size number of items in sample usually

designated by n

Lot Size number of items in the lot (population)

usually designated by N

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 19

Sampling Risks

Producers Risk : calling the population bad

when it is good; also called Type I error

Consumers Risk : calling the population good

when it is bad; also called Type II error

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Sampling Risks (cont)

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Acceptance Sampling

II

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Constructing the O-C curve

We will do the following O-C curves

Use Hyper-geometric and Poisson for each of the

following

N=60, n=6, A

c

= 2

N=200, n=20, A

c

= 2

N=1000, n=100, A

c

= 2

N=1000, n=6, A

c

= 2

Lets do k (A

c

, c - # of successes) = 0 first

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Hyper-geometric

The number of distinct combination of n items

taken r at a time is

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Hyper-geometric (cont)

Construct the following Table

p D=Np P(k=0) P(k=1) P(k=2) P(k 2)

0 %

1%

2%

3%

etc.

A Hyper-geometric calculator can be found at www.stattrek.com

Note: The Hyper-geometric distribution applies when the population, N, is

small compared to the sample size, however, it can always be used.

Sampling is done without replacement.

= (

D

C

k

Nq

C

n-k

) /

N

C

n

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Hypergeometric Calculator

N = 100 D=Defects in Pop.

n = 10

p D=Np Nq=N-Np P(k=0) P(k=1) P(k=2) P(k 2)

K 0 1 2

0% 0 100 1 1

1% 1 99 0.9 0.1 1

2% 2 98 0.809091 0.181818 0.009091 1

3% 3 97 0.726531 0.247681 0.025046 0.999258

4% 4 96 0.651631 0.2996 0.045961 0.997192

5% 5 95 0.583752 0.339391 0.070219 0.993362

6% 6 94 0.522305 0.368686 0.096458 0.987449

7% 7 93 0.46674 0.38895 0.123549 0.97924

t ot al

successes

in Popl.

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Hypergeometric Calculator

Example: p=0.02, k=0, N=100,

n=10

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 27

Hypergeometric Calculator

Example: p=0.02, k=0, N=100, n=10

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Hypergeometric Calculator

Example: p=0.02, k=0, N=100, n=10

P (k=0) = 0.809091

P (k=1) = 0.181818

P (k=2) = 0.009091

-----------------------

P(k2) = 1.0

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Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 30

From QCI-CQE Primer 2005, pVI-9

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20101129 31

Poisson

Construct the following Table, using the Poisson Cumulative Table

p np P (k 2)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

etc.

Compare. When is Poisson a good approximation

Use the Poisson when n/N0.1 and np 5.

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 32

Poisson Calculator

Example: p=0.02, n=10, c=0

X=k, the number of successes in the sample, i.e. c

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 33

Poisson Calculator

Example: p=0.02, n=10, c=0

Mean = np

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20101129 34

Poisson Calculator

Example: p=0.02, n=10, c=0

TRUE for cumulative, i.e. k; FALSE for probability mass function, i.e.p(x=k)

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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From QCI-CQE Primer 2005, pVI-8

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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From QCI-CQE Primer 2005, pVI-8

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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From QCI-CQE Primer 2005, pVI-9

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20101129 38

O-C Curve & AOQ

Determine the O-C curve.

Prepare the following Table using the Poisson distribution

p P

a

AOQ = p * P

a

0%

1%

2%

3%

etc

Graph the results: P

a

and AOQ vs p.

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 39

OC Curve & AOQ (2)

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OC Curve & AOQ (3)

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20101129 41

Acceptance Sampling

III

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Questions

1. What if this AOQ is not adequate?

2. What if you would like to add a 2

nd

sample when

the first sample fails?

Example

OC curve after 1

st

Sample:

p=0.02, n=30, N=500, c (A

c

)=0, R

e

=2

OC curve after 2

nd

Sample (of 30 more):

p=0.02, n=60, N=500, c (A

c

)= 1, R

e

=2

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Hypergeometric Multiple Sampling

N = 500 500 500 500

n = 30 60 60 60

p D=Np Nq=N-Np P(k=0) P(k=0) P(k=1) P(k 1)

K 0 0 1

0.00 0 500 1 1 1

0.01 5 495 0.73 0.53 0.36 0.89

0.02 10 490 0.54 0.28 0.38 0.66

0.03 15 485 0.39 0.14 0.30 0.44

0.04 20 480 0.28 0.07 0.21 0.28

0.05 25 475 0.20 0.04 0.14 0.17

0.06 30 470 0.15 0.02 0.08 0.10

0.07 35 465 0.11 0.01 0.05 0.06

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Hypergeometric Multiple Sampling

Hypergeometric Multiple Sample

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07

Lot defective

P

r

o

b

o

f

A

c

c

e

p

t

a

n

c

e

N=500, n=30, c=0 N=500, n=60, c=1

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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ANSI/ASQC Z1.4-1993

Mil-Std 105

Sampling for Attributes; 95 page Document

P

a

s from 83% to 99%

Information necessary: N, AQL, Inspection Level

How to Use

Code Letters

Single, Double, Multiple Plans

Switching Rules

Obtain: n, A

c

, R

e

,

O-C Curves

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 46

ANSI/ASQC Z1.4-1993

Exercises

N=475, AQL = 0.1%, Single Plan, Normal

What is Code Letter

What is Sample Size,

What is A

c,

R

e

Repeat for Tightened Inspection

Repeat for Reduced Inspection

Note: 0.1% is 1000 ppm

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Z1.4 Code Letters

I-Reduced, II-Normal, III-tightened |||| For N=475, Normal, code letter is H

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Z1.4 Single Plan Normal Insp.

Table II-A

n=125, New code Letter K

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Z1.4 O-C Curve for Code Letter K

Table X-K

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Z1.4 Switching Rules

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ANSI/ASQC Z1.4-1993

What happens when AQL = . 1% isnt

good enough

AQL = 0.1% => 1000 ppm

Is Z1.4 Adequate?

How would you decide?

If not, what would you do?

Construct O-C curve for n=1000, c=0 (Poisson). Use

100ppm < p < 5000 ppm (see slides 38 & 39)

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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ANSI/ASQC Z1.9-1993

Mil-Std 414

Sampling for Variables; 110 page Document

Four Sections in the document

Section A: General description of Plans

Section B: Plans used when variability is unknown

(Std. deviation method is used)

Section C: Plans used when variability is unknown

(range method is used)

Section D: Plans used when the variability is known.

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 53

ANSI/ASQC Z1.9-1993

Mil-Std 414

Information necessary: N, AQL, Inspection Level

How to Use

Code Letters

Single or Double Limit, Std. Dev or Range Method Plans

Switching Rules

Obtain: Code Letter, n, Accept/Reject criteria,

critical statistic (k)

O-C Curves

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 54

ANSI/ASQC Z1.9-1993

Exercise (From QCI, CQE Primer, pVI-37)

The specified max. temp for operation of a device is

209F. A lot of 40 is submitted for inspection. Use

Normal (Level II) with AQL = 0.75%. The Std.

Dev. is unknown.

Use Std. Dev. Method, variation unknown

Find Code Letter, Sample Size, k

Should lot be accepted or rejected

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 55

Z1.9 Code Letters

For N=40, AQL=0.75 |||||| Use AQL=1.0 & Code Letter D

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Z1.9 Finding Decision Criteria

Std. Dev method Table B-1

For Code Letter D, n=5 & AQL=1, k=1.52

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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ANSI/ASQC Z1.9-1993

What is k

k is a critical statistic (term used in hypothesis testing).

It defines the maximum area of the distribution which can be

above the USL.

When Q

calc

> k, there is less of distribution above Q

calc

than above

k and lot is accepted. (Compare to Z table)

Increasing (USL - X-bar) increases P

a

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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ANSI/ASQC Z1.9-1993

Exercise Solution

The five reading are 197F, 188F, 184F, 205F, 201F.

X-bar (mean) = 195F

S (Std. Dev) = 8.8F

Q

calc

= (USL X-bar)/s = 1.59

Because Q

calc

= 1.59 is greater than k=1.52, lot is

accepted

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

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Z1.9 OC Curve for D

Table A-3 (p9)

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ANSI/ASQC Z1.9-1993

Another Exercise

Same information as before

AQL = 0.1

Find Code Letter, n, k

Accept or Reject Lot?

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 61

Solution 2

nd

Exercise

New code letter is E, n=7, & k=2.22

The seven reading are 197F, 188F, 184F, 205F, 201F,

193F & 197F.

X-bar (mean) = 195F

S (std. Dev) = 7.3F

Q

calc

= (USL X-bar)/s = 1.91

Because Q

calc

= 1.91 is less than k=2.22, lot is

rejected

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 62

Inspection Economics

Average Total Inspection: The average number

of devices inspected per lot by the defined sampling

plan

ATI = n P

a

+ N(1- P

a

)

which assumes each rejected lot is 100% inspected.

Average Fraction Inspected:

AFI = ATI/N

Average Outgoing Quality:

AOQ = AQL (1 AFI)

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 63

Inspection Economics

Exercise (from Grant & Leavenworth, p395)

AQL = 0.5%, N=1000

Which sampling plan would have least ATI.

n = 100, c = 0

n = 170, c = 1

n = 240, c = 2

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 64

Inspection Economics

Exercise Solution

N 1000 1000 1000

n 100 170 240

c 0 1 2

P

a

0.59 0.8 0.92

n P

a

59 136 220.8

N(1- P

a

) 410 200 80

ATI 460 336 300.8

AFI 0.460 0.336 0.301

AOQ 0.0027 0.00332 .00349

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 65

Inspection Economics

Comparison of Cost Alternatives

No Inspection

NpD

100% Inspection

NC

Sampling

nC + (N-n)pDP

a

+ (N-n)(1-P

a

)C

D = Cost if defective passes; C = Inspection cost/item

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 66

Inspection Economics

Sample Size Break-Even Point

n

BE

= D/C

D = Cost if defective passes; C = Inspection cost/item

Acceptance Sampling Webinar

20101129 67

Resources

American Society for Quality

Quality Press

www.asq.org

ASQ/NC A&T partnership quality courses

CQIA, CMI, CQT, CQA, CQMgr, CQE, CSSBB

Quality Progress Magazine

And others

Web-Sites

www.stattrek.com excellent basic stat site

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ - greaqt math and stat site

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