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Future Security Challenges, Risks and Threats

24 November 2009

►Sustainable Security
THREATS AND RESPONSES

Chris Abbott
Honorary Visiting Research Fellow
Department of Peace Studies
University of Bradford
Structure of lecture

► Government assessment of threats


► Sustainable security assessment of threats
► Government responses
► Sustainable security responses
► Why the current approach gets it wrong
► Threats workshop
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT SUSTAINABLE SECURITY


► Individual threats ► Integrated trends
► National security ► International security
► Learns from past ► Looks to future
► Reaction and control ► Prevention and resolution
► Coalitions ► International institutions
► Military ► Non-military
► Force change ► Be the change
►Government assessment of threats
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT SUSTAINABLE SECURITY


► Individual threats ► Integrated trends
► National security ► International security
► Learns from past ► Looks to future
► Reaction and control ► Prevention and resolution
► Coalitions ► International institutions
► Military ► Non-military
► Force change ► Be the change
Government documents

► Strategic Defence Review, Strategic Defence


Review: Modern Forces for the Modern World
(Ministry of Defence, July 1998)
► SDR new chapter, The Strategic Defence
Review: A New Chapter (Ministry of Defence,
July 2002)
► Defence White Paper, Delivering Security in a
Changing World (Ministry of Defence, December
2003)
► DWP additional chapter, Delivering Security in
a Changing World: Future Capabilities (Ministry
of Defence, July 2004)
Government documents

► Strategic trends programme, The DCDC


Global Strategic Trends Programme: 2007-2036
(Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre,
Ministry of Defence, March 2007)
► National Security Strategy, The National
Security Strategy of the United Kingdom:
Security in an Interdependent World (Cabinet
Office, March 2008)
► National Risk Register, National Risk Register
(Cabinet Office, August 2008)
► NSS update, Security for the Next Generation
(Cabinet Office, June 2009)
The UK’s national security framework

Source: National Security Strategy:


2009 Update (Cabinet Office, 2009)
Drivers of insecurity

► Global trends
► Climate change
► Competition for energy
► Poverty, inequality and poor
governance
► Ideologies and beliefs

Source: National Security Strategy:


2009 Update (Cabinet Office, 2009)
Ring road issues over next 30 years

► Climate change

► Globalisation

► Global inequality

Source: The DCDC Strategic Trends Programme,


2007-2036 (Ministry of Defence, 2007)
National security threats

The DWP and the NSS conclude that:

► There are currently no major


conventional military threats to the UK
► International terrorism and the
proliferation of WMD represent the most
direct threats to the UK’s peace and
security
High consequence risks the UK faces

Source: National Risk Register


(Cabinet Office, 2008)
►Sustainable security assessment of threats
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT SUSTAINABLE SECURITY


► Individual threats ► Integrated trends
► National security ► International security
► Learns from past ► Looks to future
► Reaction and control ► Prevention and resolution
► Coalitions ► International institutions
► Military ► Non-military
► Force change ► Be the change
Sustainable security publications
► Global Responses to Global Threats:
Sustainable Security for the 21st Century
(ORG, 2006)
► Beyond Terror: The Truth About the Real
Threats to Our World (Rider, 2007)
► An Uncertain Future: Law Enforcement,
National Security and Climate Change
(ORG, 2008)
Threats to security

GOVERNMENT SUSTAINABLE SECURITY


► International ► Climate change
terrorism ► Competition over
► Proliferation of WMD resources
► Marginalisation
► Global militarisation
Regional threats

Asia and Oceania MENA Africa


► Maintaining ► Conflict and ► The nature of
state integrity occupation the state
► The regional ► Resource ► Legacies of war
power shift management and militarism
► Environmental ► Marginalisation ► Resource
& humanitarian and social management
disasters exclusion
Sustainable security publications

► Tigers and Dragons: Sustainable Security in


Asia and Australasia (ORG/SIIA, November
2008)
► From Within and Without: Sustainable
Security in the Middle East and North Africa
(ORG/IPS, March 2009)
► Beyond Dependence and Legacy: Sustainable
Security in Sub-Saharan Africa (ORG/ISS, May
2009)
Climate change as a security risk

Source: An Uncertain Future


(Oxford Research Group, 2008)
Impact of climate change on the
military

► Difficulties maintaining military capability

► Loss of strategic defence assets

► Greater calls for peacetime troop


deployments

► Instability in strategically important regions


►Government responses
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT SUSTAINABLE SECURITY


► Individual threats ► Integrated trends
► National security ► International security
► Learns from past ► Looks to future
► Reaction & control ► Prevention and resolution
► Coalitions ► International institutions
► Military ► Non-military
► Force change ► Be the change
UK defence aim

To deliver security for the people of


the United Kingdom and the
Overseas Territories by defending
them, including against terrorism;
and to act as a force for good by
strengthening international peace
and stability.

Source: Defence White Paper


(Ministry of Defence, 2003)
MoD strategic objectives 2008-09

► Achieve success in the military tasks


we undertake at home and abroad.
Limited progress

► Be ready to respond to the tasks that


might arise.
No progress

► Build for the future.


Some progress
Source: MoD Autumn Performance Report
2008-09 (Ministry of Defence, 2009)
UK national security objective

Protecting the United Kingdom and


its interests, enabling its people to
go about their daily lives freely and
with confidence, in a more secure,
stable, just and prosperous world.

Source: National Security Strategy


(Cabinet Office, 2008)
Principles of the defence vision

► Defending the United Kingdom and its


interests

► Strengthening international peace and


security
►Sustainable security responses
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT SUSTAINABLE SECURITY


► Individual threats ► Integrated trends
► National security ► International security
► Learns from past ► Looks to future
► Reaction and control ► Prevention & resolution
► Coalitions ► International institutions
► Military ► Non-military
► Force change ► Be the change
Sustainable response to terrorism

► Sustained law enforcement and


intelligence-led campaigns

► International diplomatic efforts

► Community engagement

► Targeted military action as last resort


Sustainable response to climate change

► International consensus and regional


agreements

► Massive and sustained funding

► Extensive building programmes

► Further research
►Why does the current approach get it wrong?
“War is not a mere act of policy
but a true political instrument,
a continuation of political
activity by other means.”
General Carl von Clausewitz

Source: Vom Kriege (1832)


Other factors influencing security policy

► Alliances and treaties


► International institutions
► International law
► Domestic politics
► National interest
► Public opinion
► Shock events
► Psychology
Other factors influencing security policy

► Alliances and treaties


► International institutions
► International law
► Domestic politics
► National interest
► Public opinion
► Shock events
► Psychology
Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT SUSTAINABLE SECURITY


► Individual threats ► Integrated trends
► National security ► International security
► Learns from past ► Looks to future
► Reaction and control ► Prevention & resolution
► Coalitions ► International institutions
► Military ► Non-military
► Force change ► Be the change
►Threats workshop
Threats workshop

Each group to give a 10min presentation:


► Introduce the trend
► Define the security consequences of that
trend
► Summarise the implications of this for the
military
► Outline a possible sustainable security
response
►More information…
www.chrisabbott.info
www.sustainablesecurity.org
www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk

►mail@chrisabbott.info