You are on page 1of 43

Future Security Challenges, Risks and Threats 24 November 2009

►Sustainable Security
THREATS AND RESPONSES
Chris Abbott
Honorary Visiting Research Fellow Department of Peace Studies University of Bradford

Structure of lecture
► Government assessment of threats ► Sustainable security assessment of threats ► Government responses ► Sustainable security responses ► Why the current approach gets it wrong ► Threats workshop

Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention and resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change

►Government assessment of threats

Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention and resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change

Government documents
► Strategic Defence Review, Strategic Defence

Review: Modern Forces for the Modern World (Ministry of Defence, July 1998) ► SDR new chapter, The Strategic Defence Review: A New Chapter (Ministry of Defence, July 2002) ► Defence White Paper, Delivering Security in a Changing World (Ministry of Defence, December 2003) ► DWP additional chapter, Delivering Security in a Changing World: Future Capabilities (Ministry of Defence, July 2004)

Government documents
► Strategic trends programme, The DCDC

Global Strategic Trends Programme: 2007-2036 (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, Ministry of Defence, March 2007) ► National Security Strategy, The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Security in an Interdependent World (Cabinet Office, March 2008) ► National Risk Register, National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, August 2008) ► NSS update, Security for the Next Generation (Cabinet Office, June 2009)

The UK’s national security framework

Source: National Security Strategy: 2009 Update (Cabinet Office, 2009)

Drivers of insecurity
► Global trends ► Climate change ► Competition for energy ► Poverty, inequality and poor

governance ► Ideologies and beliefs

Source: National Security Strategy: 2009 Update (Cabinet Office, 2009)

Ring road issues over next 30 years

► Climate change ► Globalisation ► Global inequality

Source: The DCDC Strategic Trends Programme, 2007-2036 (Ministry of Defence, 2007)

National security threats
The DWP and the NSS conclude that:
► There are currently no major

conventional military threats to the UK ► International terrorism and the proliferation of WMD represent the most direct threats to the UK’s peace and security

High consequence risks the UK faces

Source: National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, 2008)

►Sustainable security assessment of threats

Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention and resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change

Sustainable security publications
► Global Responses to Global Threats:

Sustainable Security for the 21st Century (ORG, 2006) ► Beyond Terror: The Truth About the Real Threats to Our World (Rider, 2007) ► An Uncertain Future: Law Enforcement, National Security and Climate Change (ORG, 2008)

Threats to security
GOVERNMENT ► International terrorism ► Proliferation of WMD SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Climate change ► Competition over resources ► Marginalisation ► Global militarisation

Regional threats
Asia and Oceania ► Maintaining state integrity ► The regional power shift ► Environmental & humanitarian disasters MENA ► Conflict and occupation ► Resource management ► Marginalisation and social exclusion Africa ► The nature of the state ► Legacies of war and militarism ► Resource management

Sustainable security publications
► Tigers and Dragons: Sustainable Security in

Asia and Australasia (ORG/SIIA, November 2008) ► From Within and Without: Sustainable Security in the Middle East and North Africa (ORG/IPS, March 2009) ► Beyond Dependence and Legacy: Sustainable Security in Sub-Saharan Africa (ORG/ISS, May 2009)

Climate change as a security risk

Source: An Uncertain Future (Oxford Research Group, 2008)

Impact of climate change on the military
► Difficulties maintaining military capability ► Loss of strategic defence assets ► Greater calls for peacetime troop

deployments
► Instability in strategically important regions

►Government responses

Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction & control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention and resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change

UK defence aim To deliver security for the people of the United Kingdom and the Overseas Territories by defending them, including against terrorism; and to act as a force for good by strengthening international peace and stability.

Source: Defence White Paper (Ministry of Defence, 2003)

MoD strategic objectives 2008-09
► Achieve success in the military tasks

we undertake at home and abroad. Limited progress
► Be ready to respond to the tasks that

might arise. No progress
► Build for the future.

Some progress
Source: MoD Autumn Performance Report 2008-09 (Ministry of Defence, 2009)

UK national security objective

Protecting the United Kingdom and its interests, enabling its people to go about their daily lives freely and with confidence, in a more secure, stable, just and prosperous world.

Source: National Security Strategy (Cabinet Office, 2008)

Principles of the defence vision

► Defending the United Kingdom and its

interests
► Strengthening international peace and

security

►Sustainable security responses

Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention & resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change

Sustainable response to terrorism
► Sustained law enforcement and

intelligence-led campaigns
► International diplomatic efforts ► Community engagement ► Targeted military action as last resort

Sustainable response to climate change
► International consensus and regional

agreements
► Massive and sustained funding ► Extensive building programmes ► Further research

►Why does the current approach get it wrong?

“War is not a mere act of policy but a true political instrument, a continuation of political activity by other means.”
General Carl von Clausewitz

Source: Vom Kriege (1832)

Other factors influencing security policy
► Alliances and treaties ► International institutions ► International law ► Domestic politics ► National interest ► Public opinion ► Shock events ► Psychology

Other factors influencing security policy
► Alliances and treaties ► International institutions ► International law ► Domestic politics ► National interest ► Public opinion ► Shock events ► Psychology

Government approach vs. sustainable security framework

GOVERNMENT ► Individual threats ► National security ► Learns from past ► Reaction and control ► Coalitions ► Military ► Force change

SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ► Integrated trends ► International security ► Looks to future ► Prevention & resolution ► International institutions ► Non-military ► Be the change

►Threats workshop

Threats workshop
Each group to give a 10min presentation: ► Introduce the trend ► Define the security consequences of that trend ► Summarise the implications of this for the military ► Outline a possible sustainable security response

►More information…

www.chrisabbott.info www.sustainablesecurity.org www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk
►mail@chrisabbott.info