Learning Objective

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Learning Objective

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Nonparametric Methods:

Nominal Level Hypothesis Tests

Chapter 15

15-2

Learning Objectives

LO15-1 Test a hypothesis about a population proportion.

LO15-2 Test a hypothesis about two population

proportions.

LO15-3 Test a hypothesis comparing an observed set of

frequencies to an expected frequency distribution.

LO15-4 Explain the limitations of using the chi-square

statistic in goodness-of-fit tests.

LO15-5 Test a hypothesis that an observed frequency

distribution is normally distributed.

LO15-6 Perform a chi-square test for independence on a

contingency table.

15-3

Testing a Population Proportion

Recall that when a variable is measured nominally, we can only

use statistics based on counts or frequencies.

A way to represent counts or frequencies is with Proportions.

A Proportion is the fraction or percentage that indicates the

part of the population or sample having a particular trait of

interest.

The sample proportion is denoted by p and is found by x/n.

x is the number of observations with the particular trait.

n is the total number of observations.

The population proportion is denoted by .

LO15-1 Test a hypothesis about a

population proportion.

15-4

Testing a Population Proportion:

Assumptions

A random sample is selected from a population that follows the

binomial distribution.

The requirements of a binomial distribution (chapter 6) are:

The data are counts of nominal variables,

The outcome of each observation is classified into one of two

mutually exclusive categoriesa success or a failure,

The probability of a success is the same for each observed value,

The observations are independent.

When both nt and n(1- t ) are at least 5 and the above

requirements are met, we can use the normal distribution as an

approximation to the binomial distribution to test hypotheses

about population proportions.

LO15-1

15-5

Testing a Population Proportion

- Example

Suppose prior elections in a certain state

indicated it is necessary for a candidate

for governor to receive at least 80% of the

vote in the northern section of the state to

be elected. The incumbent governor is

interested in assessing his chances of

returning to office and plans to conduct a

survey of 2,000 registered voters in the

northern section of the state. Using the

hypothesis-testing procedure, assess the

governors chances of reelection.

LO15-1

15-6

Testing a Population Proportion

- Example

Step 1: State the null hypothesis and the alternate hypothesis.

Note the keyword in the problem is at least, and that a decision

to reject the null infers that the governor will not be re-elected.

H

0

: t .80

H

1

: t < .80

Step 2: Select the level of significance.

We select an = 0.05.

Step 3: Select the test statistic.

Use the z-distribution since the assumptions are met:

nt and n(1-t) 5.

LO15-1

15-7

Testing a Population Proportion

- Example

n

p

z

) 1 ( t t

t

=

Sample proportion

Hypothesized

population proportion

Sample size

LO15-1

Calculating the z test statistic:

15-8

Testing a Population Proportion

- Example

Step 4: Formulate the decision rule.

The hypothesis test is one-tailed so

we:

Reject H

0

if z < -z

o

Reject H

0

if z < -1.645

Step 5: Take a sample, do the analysis, make a decision.

The computed value of z (-2.80) is in the rejection region, so the null hypothesis is rejected

at the .05 level.

Step 6: Interpret the results. The difference of 2.5 percentage points between the

sample proportion (77.5%) and the hypothesized population proportion (80%) is statistically

significant. The evidence at this point does not support the claim that the incumbent

governor will return to the governors mansion for another four years.

LO15-1

15-9

Two-Sample Tests of Proportions

EXAMPLES

The vice president of human resources wishes to know whether

there is a difference in the proportion of hourly employees who miss

more than 5 days of work per year at the Atlanta and the Houston

plants.

General Motors is considering a new design for the Chevrolet

Camaro. The design is shown to a group of potential buyers under

30 years of age and another group over 60 years of age. Chevrolet

wishes to know whether there is a difference in the proportion of the

groups who like the new design.

A consultant to the airline industry is investigating the fear of flying

among adults. Specifically, the company wishes to know whether

there is a difference in the proportion of men versus women who are

fearful of flying.

LO15-2 Test a hypothesis about

two population proportions.

15-10

Two-Sample Tests of Proportions

To test hypotheses about the difference between two

population proportions, we again use the normal

distribution to approximate the binomial distribution.

The z test statistic is computed as:

LO15-2

Notice that the denominator, the standard deviation

of (p

1

p

2

), now includes p

c

which is the pooled

estimate of the population proportion.

15-11

Two-Sample Tests of Proportions

Pooling, or estimating the population proportion.

LO15-2

15-12

Two-Sample Tests of Proportions

- Example

Manelli Perfume Company recently developed a

new fragrance that it plans to market under the

name Heavenly. A number of market studies

indicate that Heavenly has very good market

potential. The Sales Department at Manelli is

particularly interested in whether there is a

difference in the proportions of younger and

older women who would purchase Heavenly if it

were marketed. Samples are collected from each

of these independent groups. Each woman is

asked to smell Heavenly and indicate whether

she would purchase the fragrance.

LO15-2

15-13

Two-Sample Tests of Proportions

- Example

Step 1: State the null and alternate hypotheses.

(keyword: there is a difference)

H

0

: t

1

= t

2

H

1

: t

1

t

2

Step 2: Select the level of significance.

We select an = 0.05.

Step 3: Determine the appropriate test statistic.

We will use the z-distribution to approximate the binomial

distribution because the sample sizes are relatively large.

LO15-2

15-14

Two Sample Tests of Proportions

- Example

Step 4: Formulate the decision rule.

Reject H

0

if z > z

o/2

or z < - z

o/2

z > z

.05/2

or z < - z

.05/2

z > 1.96 or z < -1.96

LO15-2

15-15

Two Sample Tests of Proportions

- Example

Step 5: Select a sample, do the analysis, and make a decision.

Let p

1

equal the proportion of young women who would purchase the

fragrance; p

2

equals the proportion of older women who would purchase

the fragrance.

The computed value of -2.207 is in the area of rejection. Therefore, the null

hypothesis is rejected at the .05 significance level.

Step 6: Interpret the result. The proportions of young and older women who

purchase Heavenly are different. By observation, the proportions indicate that

older women are more likely to prefer the fragrance.

LO15-2

15-16

LO15-3 Test a hypothesis comparing an observed set

of frequencies to an expected frequency distribution.

Comparing observed and expected

frequency distributions

Hypotheses:

H

0

: There is no difference between observed and

expected frequencies. Or, the two frequency

distributions are not different.

H

1

: There is a difference between observed and

expected frequencies. Or, the two frequency

distributions are different.

15-17

The chi-square statistic is used to test hypotheses comparing

frequency distributions.

The major characteristics of

the chi-square distribution:

It is positively skewed.

It is non-negative.

The shape of the

distribution depends on its

degrees of freedom.

LO15-3

Comparing observed and expected

frequency distributions

15-18

Comparing observed and expected

frequency distributions:

The Goodness-of-Fit Test

Let f

0

and f

e

be the observed and expected frequencies

respectively for each category in a frequency distribution. The

variable, k, is the number of categories.

The test statistic is:

The value computed inside the brackets for each category is

summed for all categories.

( )

(

(

=

e

e o

f

f f

2

2

_

LO15-3

15-19

Comparing observed and expected

frequency distributions:

The Goodness-of-Fit Test - Example

The Bubbas Fish and Pasta is a chain of restaurants located along the Gulf

Coast of Florida. Bubba, the owner, is considering adding steak to his menu.

Before doing so he decides to hire Magnolia Research, LLC, to conduct a

survey of adults about their favorite entree when eating out. Magnolia selected

a sample of 120 adults and asked each to indicate their entre when dining

out. The results are reported below.

Is it reasonable to conclude there is no preference among the four entrees?

LO15-3

Notice the we computed the expected frequencies so that they are equal

(120/4=30). The expected frequency distribution infers that adults have no

preference for any of the entrees; the probabilities that an adult would

choose any entre are equal.

15-20

Comparing observed and expected

frequency distributions:

The Goodness-of-Fit Test - Example

Step 1: State the null hypothesis and the alternate hypothesis.

H

0

: There is no difference between the expected and observed

frequency distributions of adults selecting each entre.

H

1

: There is a difference between the expected and observed

frequency distributions of adults selecting each entre.

Step 2: Select the level of significance.

= 0.05 as stated in the problem.

Step 3: Select the test statistic.

The test statistic follows the chi-square distribution,

designated as

2

.

LO15-3

15-21

Comparing observed and expected

frequency distributions:

The Goodness-of-Fit Test - Example

Reject H

0

if c

2

> c

2

,k 1

c

2

> c

2

.05,3

c

2

> 7.815

LO15-3

Step 4: Formulate the decision rule.

The critical value is a chi-square value with (k-1) degrees of freedom,

where k is the number of categories. In this example there are 4

categories, so there are (41) or 3 degrees of freedom.

15-22

Comparing observed and expected

frequency distributions:

The Goodness-of-Fit Test - Example

Step 5: Select a sample, do the analysis, and make a decision.

( )

(

(

=

e

e o

f

f f

2

2

_

LO15-3

The computed

2

of 2.20 is less than the critical value of 7.815. The

decision, therefore, is to fail to reject H

0

at the .05 level .

Step 6: Interpret the result. The difference between the observed and the

expected frequencies is due to chance. There appears to be no difference

in the preference among the four entrees.

15-23

Comparing observed and expected frequency

distributions: The Goodness-of-Fit Test

Unequal Expected Frequencies Example

LO15-3

The goodness-of-fit test to compare an observed frequency

distribution to a frequency distribution of unequal expected

frequencies is exactly the same as the procedure for the test with

equal frequencies.

c

2

Hypotheses:

H

0

: There is no difference between observed and expected

frequencies. Or, the two frequency distributions are not

different.

H

1

: There is a difference between observed and expected

frequencies. Or, the two frequency distributions are

different.

15-24

Comparing observed and expected frequency

distributions: The Goodness-of-Fit Test

Unequal Expected Frequencies Example

The American Hospital Administrators Association (AHAA) reports the

following information concerning the number of times senior citizens are

admitted to a hospital during a one-year period. Forty percent are not

admitted; 30 percent are admitted once; 20 percent are admitted twice,

and the remaining 10 percent are admitted three or more times.

A survey of 150 residents of Bartow Estates, a community devoted to

active seniors located in central Florida, revealed 55 residents were not

admitted during the last year, 50 were admitted to a hospital once, 32

were admitted twice, and the rest of those in the survey were admitted

three or more times.

Can we conclude the survey at Bartow Estates is consistent with the

information suggested by the AHAA? Use the .05 significance level.

LO15-3

15-25

Comparing observed and expected frequency

distributions: The Goodness-of-Fit Test

Unequal Expected Frequencies Example

For this problem, the set of observed frequencies is based on the

survey of the 150 residents.

The expected frequencies are computed based on the percentages

reported by the AHAA. They say that 40% of seniors are never

admitted to a hospital during a year. If this is true, then 40% of the 150

surveyed seniors, or 60 is the expected frequency of this category for

the Bartow residents. 30% of seniors are admitted once. So the

expected frequency for the Bartow Residents is 30% of the 150

surveyed or 45.

LO15-3

15-26

Comparing observed and expected frequency

distributions: The Goodness-of-Fit Test

Unequal Expected Frequencies Example

LO15-3

Step 1: State the null hypothesis and the alternate hypothesis.

H

0

: There is no difference between the expected and observed

frequency distributions of number of times per year senior adults

are admitted to a hospital.

H

1

: There is a difference between the expected and observed

frequency distributions of number of times per year senior adults

are admitted to a hospital.

Step 2: Select the level of significance.

= 0.05 as stated in the problem.

Step 3: Select the test statistic.

The test statistic follows the chi-square distribution,

designated as

2

.

15-27

Comparing observed and expected frequency

distributions: The Goodness-of-Fit Test

Unequal Expected Frequencies Example

Reject H

0

if c

2

> c

2

,k 1

c

2

> c

2

.05,3

c

2

> 7.815

LO15-3

Step 4: Formulate the decision rule.

The critical value is a chi-square value with (k-1) degrees of freedom,

where k is the number of categories. In this example there are 4

categories, so there are (41) or 3 degrees of freedom.

15-28

Step 5: Select a sample, do the analysis, and make a decision.

( )

(

(

=

e

e o

f

f f

2

2

_

LO15-3

The computed

2

of 1.3723 is less the critical value of 7.815. The decision,

therefore, is to fail to reject H

0

at the .05 level .

Step 6: Interpret the result. The difference between the observed and the

expected frequencies is due to chance. There appears to be no difference

in the distribution of hospital admittance for Bartow Estates Community.

Comparing observed and expected frequency

distributions: The Goodness-of-Fit Test

Unequal Expected Frequencies Example

15-29

Limitations of the Chi-square

Goodness-of-Fit tests

LO15-4 Explain the limitations of using the

chi-square statistic in goodness-of-fit tests.

If there is an unusually small expected frequency in a cell, chi-square (if applied) might

result in an erroneous conclusion. This can happen because f

e

appears in the

denominator, and dividing by a very small number makes the quotient quite large! Two

generally accepted policies regarding small cell frequencies are:

1. If there are only two cells, the expected frequency in each cell should be at least 5.

2. For more than two cells, chi-square should not be used if more than 20% of the f

e

cells

have expected frequencies less than 5. According to this policy, it would not be

appropriate to use the goodness-of-fit test on the following data. Three of the seven cells,

or 43%, have expected frequencies (f

e

) of less than 5.

The issue can be resolved by

combining categories if it is

logical to do so. In this

example, we combine the

three vice president

categories, which satisfies the

20% policy.

15-30

Testing a hypothesis that an observed frequency

distribution fits an expected frequency distribution

that is normal.

LO15-5 Test a hypothesis that an observed

frequency distribution is normally distributed.

To perform this Goodness-of-Fit test, the challenge is to compute the

normally distributed set of expected frequencies. To find this

distribution, we will use the familiar z-statistic and z-table to find the

relative expected frequencies. Then, apply the relative expected

frequencies to the total number of observations to compute the

expected frequencies, as we did in the Bartow Estates example.

15-31

Testing a hypothesis that an observed frequency

distribution fits an expected frequency distribution

that is normal.

Recall the frequency distribution of Applewoods profits from the sale

of 180 vehicles. The frequency distribution is repeated below.

LO15-5

Is it reasonable to conclude that the observed frequency distribution of

profits is normally distributed?

15-32

Testing a hypothesis that an observed frequency

distribution fits an expected frequency

distribution that is normal.

LO15-5

Step 1: State the null hypothesis and the alternate hypothesis.

H

0

: There is no difference between the expected and observed

frequency distributions. There is no evidence to conclude that

the expected frequency distribution is not normal.

H

1

: There is a difference between the expected and observed

frequency distributions. The expected observed frequency

distributions are different! The observed distribution is not

normal.

Step 2: Select the level of significance.

= 0.05 as stated in the problem.

Step 3: Select the test statistic.

The test statistic follows the chi-square distribution,

designated as

2

.

15-33

Testing a hypothesis that an observed frequency

distribution fits an expected frequency

distribution that is normal.

Reject H

0

if c

2

> c

2

,k 2 1

c

2

> c

2

.05,5

c

2

>11.070

LO15-5

Step 4: Formulate the decision rule.

The critical value is a chi-square value with (k-2-1) degrees of

freedom, where k is the number of categories. The 2 represents

the two sample statistics (mean and standard deviation) that we will

use to compute the normal, expected frequency distribution. In this

example there are 8 categories, so there are (8-2-1) or 5 degrees of

freedom.

15-34

Testing a hypothesis that an observed

frequency distribution fits an expected frequency

distribution that is normal.

We know from the data

that the sample mean profit

is $1,843.17 and the

sample standard deviation

is $643.63.

Convert each class limit

into a z-score using the

mean of $1,843.17 and

standard deviation of

$643.63.

Calculate the probabilities

for each class based on

the z-values for the class

limits.

LO15-5

=.2367 180

=.0214 180

15-35

Testing a hypothesis that an observed frequency

distribution fits an expected frequency

distribution that is normal.

Step 5: Select a sample, do the analysis, and make a decision.

( )

(

(

=

e

e o

f

f f

2

2

_

LO15-5

The computed

2

of 5.220 is less the critical value of 11.070. The decision,

therefore, is to fail to reject H

0

at the .05 level .

Step 6: Interpret the result. There appears to be no difference between

the observed distribution of profits and the expected, normal distribution of

profits. We assume that the observed distribution is normally distributed.

15-36

Contingency Table Analysis

A contingency table is used to present observed frequencies

for two traits or characteristics. Each observation is classified

according to two nominally scaled criteria. We are interested to

know if there is a relationship between the two variables.

We can analyze a contingency table to determine if a

relationship exists between the two variables. For example, we

might be interested in the relationship between income level

and a persons decision to play the lottery. The results of a

survey of 140 people are illustrated below. Note that the table

displays an observed frequency distribution based on two

variables.

LO15-6 Perform a chi-square test for

independence on a contingency table.

15-37

Contingency Table Analysis - Example

Rainbow Chemical, Inc. employs hourly and salaried

employees. The vice president of human resources

surveyed a random sample of 380 employees about

his/her satisfaction level with the current health care

benefits program. At the .05 significance level, is it

reasonable to conclude that pay type and level of

satisfaction with the health care benefits are related?

LO15-6

15-38

Contingency Table Analysis - Example

Step 1: State the null hypothesis and the alternate hypothesis.

H

0

: There is no relationship between pay type and level of

satisfaction with the health care benefits.

H

1

: There is a relationship between pay type and level of

satisfaction with the health care benefits.

Step 2: Select the level of significance.

= 0.05 as stated in the problem.

Step 3: Select the test statistic.

The test statistic follows the chi-square distribution,

designated as

2

.

( )

(

(

=

e

e o

f

f f

2

2

_

LO15-6

15-39

Contingency Table Analysis - Example

Reject H

0

if c

2

> c

2

,(r 1)(c 1)

c

2

> c

2

.05,2

c

2

> 5.991

LO15-6

Step 4: Formulate the decision rule.

The critical value is a chi-square statistic. The degrees of freedom

are: (number of rows 1)(number of columns 1). In this example

there are 2 rows and 3 columns. So the degrees of freedom are (2-

1)(3-1) = (1)(2) is 2.

15-40

Contingency Table Analysis:

Computing Expected Frequencies (f

e

)

LO15-6

For example, the expected frequency for salaried personnel who

are satisfied with their health care benefits is:

15-41

Contingency Table Analysis - Example

Step 5: Select a sample, do the analysis, and make a decision.

( )

(

(

=

e

e o

f

f f

2

2

_

LO15-6

The computed

2

of 2.506 is less the critical value of 5.991. The decision,

therefore, is to fail to reject H

0

at the .05 level .

Step 6: Interpret the result. There is no relationship between type of pay

and satisfaction with health care benefits.

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