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OBJECTIVES

To explain the meanings of the terms

sample space, complementary event,

combined events, mutually exclusive,

conditional probability and independent

events.

To be able to apply probability in

everydays situation with a logical

approach.

To let the students know how to set up and

use tree diagrams.

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3

Probability

A measure of the likelihood that something

happens or the chance that an event can occur.

Probability is measured on a scale from 0 to 1 and

most events therefore have probabilities between

these extremes.

Examples are :

Probability of obtaining an 8 on a die,

Probability of the next baby to be born at RIPAS

hospital will be a boy,

Probability of obtaining a score of 1,2,3,4,5 or 6

on the die.

Each possible outcome of an experiment is

called the sample point.

The set of all possible outcomes is the

sample space, S.

Example : Toss a dice once

Since S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

n(S) = 6.

4

Sample Space (S)

5

If a trial has a set of equally likely outcomes,

S, then the probability that an event A

occurs is given by P(A) =

i) Its value is between 0 and 1

ii) If P(A) = 0, an impossible event

iii) If P(A) = 1, an event is sure to happen

) (

) (

S N

A N

Definition of Probability

Venn diagrams

Venn diagrams can be used to represent probabilities.

The outcomes that

satisfy event A can be

represented by a circle.

A

The outcomes that satisfy

event B can be represented

by another circle.

B

The circles can be overlapped to represent

outcomes that satisfy both events.

a) Complementary event :

If the probability of an event A happening is P(A),

then the probability that it does not happen is

P(A).

7

Rules of Probability

P(A) + P(A)= 1

Venn diagram

representing

Complementary

events

A

A

8

b) Combined events :

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

This symbol means

union or OR

This symbol means

intersect or AND

Venn diagrams can

help you to visualize

probability

calculations.

Example1 Combined Events

A coin and a die are thrown together. Draw a

sample space diagram and find the probability of

obtaining

a) a head

b) a number greater than 4

c) a head and a number greater than 4

d) a head or a number greater than 4

9

Example 2 - Combined Events

The probability the student may pass mathematics is

. If the

probability that he will pass both subjects is

, what is

the probability that he will pass at least one subject?

1

0

c) Mutually Exclusive events

If events A and B are mutually exclusive it implies that

they cannot occur at the same time.

For example, if a card is picked at random from a

standard pack of 52 cards, the events the card is a club

and the card is a diamond are mutually exclusive.

However the events the card is a club and the card is a

queen are not mutually exclusive.

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

11

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)

In Venn diagrams

representing mutually

exclusive events, the

circles do not overlap.

A B

13

Example 1 - (Mutually Exclusive events)

The probability of getting a 5 or 6 when

throwing a dice is simply

Example 2 - (Mutually Exclusive events)

What is the probability of throwing a dice and

getting odd numbers ?

13

d) Independent Events

Two events are said to be independent if the

occurrence of one has no effect on the probability

of the second occuring.

14

Example 1 - (Independent Events)

A coin is tossed and a dice is rolled. What is the

probability of getting a head on the coin and a four

on the dice ?

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

15

Example 2 : (Independent Events)

A and B are independent events. P(A) = 0.7 and

P(B) = 0.4.

a) Find P(A B).

b) Find P(A B).

Example 3 - (Independent Events)

What is the probability of getting two 6s?

We can enumerate all the possible outcomes in a table :

1,1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1

1,2 2,2 3,2 4,2 5,2 6,2

1,3 2,3 3,3 4,3 5,3 6,3

1,4 2,4 3,4 4,4 5,4 6,4

1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5

1,6 2,6 3,6 4,6 5,6 6,6

16

Tree diagrams are sometimes a useful way of

finding probabilities that involve a succession of

events.

It shows all the possible events. The first event is

represented by a dot. From the dot, branches are

drawn to represent all possible outcomes of the

event. The probability of each outcome is written on

its branch.

We just multiply the probabilities as we go along the

branches to get the required probability.

Note:

check that the sum of the probabilities on each

branch is 1. 17

Example 1 : (Independent Events using Tree Diagrams)

A bag contains 6 green counters and 4 blue counters. A

counter is chosen at random from the bag and then replaced.

This is repeated two more times.

Find the probability that the 3 counters chosen are

a) all green

b) not all the same colour.

Example 2: (Independent Events using Tree Diagrams)

A coin is flipped 3 times. What is the

probability of :

a) getting three heads.

b) getting two heads and one tail,

(in the order): P(H,H,T).

c) getting one head and two tails,

(in the order): P(H,T,T).

d) getting two heads and one tail in any

order.

19

FIRST SECOND THIRD

H H H

H H T

H T H

H T T

T H H

T H T

T T H

T T T

20

Example 3 - (Independent Events using Tree Diagrams)

A firm is independently working on two

separate jobs. There is a probability of only

0.3 that either of the jobs will be finished on

time.

a) Construct a probability tree of the problem.

b) Calculate the probability that :

i) Both of the jobs are finished on time

ii) At least one of the jobs is finished on

time

21

Example 4 : (Independent Events using Tree Diagrams)

A vacuum cleaner salesmen MJ must make two

calls per day, one in the morning and one in the

afternoon. MJ has probability of 0.4 of selling a

cleaner on any call. The morning and afternoon

results are independent of each other. Find the

probability that, in one day :

a) MJ sells just one cleaner.

b) MJ doesnt sell any cleaner.

22

23

) (

) (

) | (

B P

B A P

B A P

e. Conditional Probability

24

Example 1 Conditional Probability

Ali travels to work either by bus or by taxi or by

bicycle. The probability that he travels by bus is 0.3,

by taxi is 0.5 and by bicycle is 0.2. The probability

that he arrives on time is 0.6 if he travels by bus, 0.9

if he travels by taxi and 0.8 if he travels by bicycle.

a) Draw a tree diagram to show this information.

b) Find the probability that Ali does not arrive at work

on time.

c) Find the conditional probability that Ali traveled by

bus , given that he does not arrive at work on

time.

Example 2 : (Conditional Probability)

A firm has tendered for two independent contracts. It

estimates that it has probability 0.4 of obtaining

contract E and probability of 0.1 obtaining contract

F.

a) Find the probability that the firm obtains exactly

one contract.

b) Given that the firm obtained exactly one contract,

find the probability that it is from contract F.

25

26

References

Lecture & Tutorial Notes from Department of Business & Management,

Institute Technology Brunei, Brunei Darussalam.

ACT Education Solutions (2005) Global Assessment Certificate

Student Manual, ACT Education Solutions Limited, Australia

MDIS (2010) Diploma in Business Management Course Study Booklet,

Management Development Institute of Singapore Pte Ltd, Singapore.

General Studies Department (2012), Introduction to Statistics : Lecture

Notes & Slides, Brunei Polytechnic, Brunei Darussalam

Phua, S. et al (1991). Statistics for Business (2nd Edition). FT Law & Tax

Asia Pacific : Singapore

Weiers , R.M. (2008) Introduction to Business Statistics (6th

Edition). Thompson South-Western : Canada

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