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OBJECTIVES
To explain the meanings of the terms
sample space, complementary event,
combined events, mutually exclusive,
conditional probability and independent
events.

To be able to apply probability in
everydays situation with a logical
approach.

To let the students know how to set up and
use tree diagrams.
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Probability
A measure of the likelihood that something
happens or the chance that an event can occur.

Probability is measured on a scale from 0 to 1 and
most events therefore have probabilities between
these extremes.

Examples are :
Probability of obtaining an 8 on a die,
Probability of the next baby to be born at RIPAS
hospital will be a boy,
Probability of obtaining a score of 1,2,3,4,5 or 6
on the die.
Each possible outcome of an experiment is
called the sample point.

The set of all possible outcomes is the
sample space, S.

Example : Toss a dice once
Since S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
n(S) = 6.




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Sample Space (S)
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If a trial has a set of equally likely outcomes,
S, then the probability that an event A
occurs is given by P(A) =

i) Its value is between 0 and 1
ii) If P(A) = 0, an impossible event
iii) If P(A) = 1, an event is sure to happen
) (
) (
S N
A N
Definition of Probability
Venn diagrams
Venn diagrams can be used to represent probabilities.
The outcomes that
satisfy event A can be
represented by a circle.
A
The outcomes that satisfy
event B can be represented
by another circle.
B
The circles can be overlapped to represent
outcomes that satisfy both events.
a) Complementary event :
If the probability of an event A happening is P(A),
then the probability that it does not happen is
P(A).


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Rules of Probability
P(A) + P(A)= 1
Venn diagram
representing
Complementary
events


A

A





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b) Combined events :


P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)
This symbol means
union or OR
This symbol means
intersect or AND
Venn diagrams can
help you to visualize
probability
calculations.
Example1 Combined Events
A coin and a die are thrown together. Draw a
sample space diagram and find the probability of
obtaining

a) a head
b) a number greater than 4
c) a head and a number greater than 4
d) a head or a number greater than 4
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Example 2 - Combined Events

The probability the student may pass mathematics is

and the probability he will pass Physics is

. If the
probability that he will pass both subjects is

, what is
the probability that he will pass at least one subject?


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0
c) Mutually Exclusive events
If events A and B are mutually exclusive it implies that
they cannot occur at the same time.

For example, if a card is picked at random from a
standard pack of 52 cards, the events the card is a club
and the card is a diamond are mutually exclusive.

However the events the card is a club and the card is a
queen are not mutually exclusive.
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then





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P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
In Venn diagrams
representing mutually
exclusive events, the
circles do not overlap.
A B





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Example 1 - (Mutually Exclusive events)

The probability of getting a 5 or 6 when
throwing a dice is simply



Example 2 - (Mutually Exclusive events)

What is the probability of throwing a dice and
getting odd numbers ?

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d) Independent Events
Two events are said to be independent if the
occurrence of one has no effect on the probability
of the second occuring.






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Example 1 - (Independent Events)
A coin is tossed and a dice is rolled. What is the
probability of getting a head on the coin and a four
on the dice ?

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
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Example 2 : (Independent Events)
A and B are independent events. P(A) = 0.7 and
P(B) = 0.4.
a) Find P(A B).
b) Find P(A B).
Example 3 - (Independent Events)
What is the probability of getting two 6s?
We can enumerate all the possible outcomes in a table :
1,1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1
1,2 2,2 3,2 4,2 5,2 6,2
1,3 2,3 3,3 4,3 5,3 6,3
1,4 2,4 3,4 4,4 5,4 6,4
1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5
1,6 2,6 3,6 4,6 5,6 6,6
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Tree diagrams are sometimes a useful way of
finding probabilities that involve a succession of
events.
It shows all the possible events. The first event is
represented by a dot. From the dot, branches are
drawn to represent all possible outcomes of the
event. The probability of each outcome is written on
its branch.

We just multiply the probabilities as we go along the
branches to get the required probability.

Note:
check that the sum of the probabilities on each
branch is 1. 17
Example 1 : (Independent Events using Tree Diagrams)

A bag contains 6 green counters and 4 blue counters. A
counter is chosen at random from the bag and then replaced.
This is repeated two more times.
Find the probability that the 3 counters chosen are
a) all green
b) not all the same colour.
Example 2: (Independent Events using Tree Diagrams)

A coin is flipped 3 times. What is the
probability of :
a) getting three heads.

b) getting two heads and one tail,
(in the order): P(H,H,T).

c) getting one head and two tails,
(in the order): P(H,T,T).

d) getting two heads and one tail in any
order.
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FIRST SECOND THIRD
H H H
H H T
H T H
H T T
T H H
T H T
T T H
T T T




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Example 3 - (Independent Events using Tree Diagrams)

A firm is independently working on two
separate jobs. There is a probability of only
0.3 that either of the jobs will be finished on
time.

a) Construct a probability tree of the problem.

b) Calculate the probability that :
i) Both of the jobs are finished on time
ii) At least one of the jobs is finished on
time
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Example 4 : (Independent Events using Tree Diagrams)

A vacuum cleaner salesmen MJ must make two
calls per day, one in the morning and one in the
afternoon. MJ has probability of 0.4 of selling a
cleaner on any call. The morning and afternoon
results are independent of each other. Find the
probability that, in one day :

a) MJ sells just one cleaner.
b) MJ doesnt sell any cleaner.

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) (
) (
) | (
B P
B A P
B A P

e. Conditional Probability
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Example 1 Conditional Probability

Ali travels to work either by bus or by taxi or by
bicycle. The probability that he travels by bus is 0.3,
by taxi is 0.5 and by bicycle is 0.2. The probability
that he arrives on time is 0.6 if he travels by bus, 0.9
if he travels by taxi and 0.8 if he travels by bicycle.

a) Draw a tree diagram to show this information.
b) Find the probability that Ali does not arrive at work
on time.
c) Find the conditional probability that Ali traveled by
bus , given that he does not arrive at work on
time.
Example 2 : (Conditional Probability)

A firm has tendered for two independent contracts. It
estimates that it has probability 0.4 of obtaining
contract E and probability of 0.1 obtaining contract
F.
a) Find the probability that the firm obtains exactly
one contract.

b) Given that the firm obtained exactly one contract,
find the probability that it is from contract F.


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References

Lecture & Tutorial Notes from Department of Business & Management,
Institute Technology Brunei, Brunei Darussalam.

ACT Education Solutions (2005) Global Assessment Certificate
Student Manual, ACT Education Solutions Limited, Australia


MDIS (2010) Diploma in Business Management Course Study Booklet,
Management Development Institute of Singapore Pte Ltd, Singapore.
General Studies Department (2012), Introduction to Statistics : Lecture
Notes & Slides, Brunei Polytechnic, Brunei Darussalam

Phua, S. et al (1991). Statistics for Business (2nd Edition). FT Law & Tax
Asia Pacific : Singapore

Weiers , R.M. (2008) Introduction to Business Statistics (6th
Edition). Thompson South-Western : Canada