You are on page 1of 22

# Is Global Warming

for Real?

J. C. Sprott
Department of Physics
University of Wisconsin -

Presented at the
Chaos and Complex Systems
Seminar
On January 17, 2006
Some Evidence
From Recent Seminars
Greenland Ice-core Data (C. S. Clay)

782,000 years

## Lake Mendota Ice Cover (John Magnuson)

150 years
Prediction
Methods
■ Extrapolation methods
◆ Simple extrapolation
◆ Moving average
◆ Trends
■ Linear methods
◆ Simple regression
◆ Autoregression
◆ All poles method
■ Nonlinear methods
◆ Method of analogs
◆ Artificial neural network
Simple
Extrapolation
3
2
1

Order = 0

Moving Average

Lags = 0
1
2 3

Trends

2
1

Lags = 0

Linear
Regression

2
3

Order = 0
1

## Fit a polynomial to the entire data set

Autoregression

4
2

Order = 0

xt = a0 + a1xt-1 + a2xt-2 + …
All Poles Method

Poles = 0
2

4
1

Method of
Analogs

Lags = 0
2

## Find the closest similar previous sequence

Artificial Neural
D aij N bi
Network

6 neurons Lags = 3

tanh x

## xt = xt-1 + Σbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + ai2xt-2 + ai3xt-3]

Artificial Neural
Network

6 neurons Lags = 3

## xt = xt-1 + Σbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + ai2xt-2 + ai3xt-3]

Artificial Neural
Network

6 neurons Lags = 4

## xt = xt-1 + Σbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + … + ai4xt-4]

Artificial Neural
Network

6 neurons Lags = 9

## xt = xt-1 + Σbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + … + ai9xt-9]

Artificial Neural
Network

6 neurons Lags = 9

Chaotic?

450-year prediction
~30-70 days frozen

## xt = xt-1 + Σbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + … + ai9xt-9]

Conclusion
■ Eight predictors with ten or more
values for the parameter give 80
very different predictions

the predictions

## ■ Better yet, take the median of the

predictions (half higher, half lower)
Median of 80
Predictions

## Prediction for this season: 91 days (March 19th thaw)

Ice Core Data
Neural Network
Predictor

6 neurons Lags = 9

782,000 years

## xt = xt-1 + Σbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + … + ai9xt-9]

Ice Core Data
Average of 80
Predictions

782,000 years
Closing
Thoughts
■ The Earth is getting warmer
■ Human activity may not be the
main cause
■ Global warming may not be a