Simposium Fisika Nasional Bali, Bali

PENGGUNAAN EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
UNTUK PREDIKSI BENCANA ALAM - DIMANA POSISI KITA?*

Halmar Halide
Anggota HFI @ Fisika UNHAS
Alumni Fisika (ITB, MUN, JCU) dan Ex- Postdoc Research Sci. (AIMS)
*)Disampaikan pada Simposium Fisika Nasional XXVII, Aula Pasca
Sarjana UNUD, Denpasar, 17 Oktober 2014.
ENSO: Observasi, Indeks (Nino 3.4, SOI), Dampak
dan Prediksinya

Bencana: Definisi, BNPB dan Univ pengkaji
bencana

ENSO dan Prediksi tahunan Bencana (3 kasus):
DBD, Tornado, Wildfire

Halmar Halide @ physics unhas, SFN XXVII
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/home/people/wkessler.html
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
http://faculty.washington.edu/kessler/ENSO/soi-shade-2006.gif
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
TRMM=Tropical Rain Measuring Mission
2014, Denpasar
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
2014, Denpasar
http://arstechnica.com/science/2011/08/el-nino-appearances-tied-to-civil-conflicts-in-tropical-countries/
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
Halmar Halide @ physics unhas, SFN XXVII 2014,
Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
PEIRCE SKILL SCORE AND ERROR ESTIMATE
(STEPHENSON, 2000; HALIDE AND RIDD, 2008)
2014, Denpasar

ENSO EVENT
PREDICTED
ENSO EVENT OBSERVED
YES NO
YES a (hit) b (false alarm)
NO c (miss) d (correct rejection)
2014, Denpasar
http://fisikaunhas.blogspot.com/2013/12/normal-0-false-false-false-in-x-none-x.html
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
A disaster is a sudden, calamitous event that seriously disrupts the
functioning of a community or society and causes human, material,
and economic or environmental losses that exceed the communitys
or societys ability to cope using its own resources. Though often
caused by nature, disasters can have human origins

(VULNERABILITY+ HAZARD ) / CAPACITY = DISASTER
http://www.ifrc.org/en/what-we-do/disaster-management/about-disasters/what-is-a-disaster/
2014, Denpasar
http://www.ifrc.org/en/what-we-do/disaster-management/about-disasters/definition-of-hazard/
HAZARD: Threatening event, or probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging
phenomenon within a given time period and area.
Natural hazards are naturally occurring physical phenomena caused either by
rapid or slow onset events which can be geophysical (earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis
and volcanic activity), hydrological (avalanches and floods), climatological (extreme
temperatures, drought and wildfires), meteorological (cyclones and storms/wave surges)
or biological (disease epidemics and insect/animal plagues).

Technological or man-made hazards (complex
emergencies/conflicts, famine, displaced populations, industrial accidents and transport
accidents) are events that are caused by humans and occur in or close to human
settlements. This can include environmental degradation, pollution and
accidents.Technological or man-made hazards (complex emergencies/conflicts, famine,
displaced populations, industrial accidents and transport accidents)
2014, Denpasar
ISTILAH BENCANA pada AL QURAN

Mushbah: segala sesuatu yang
tak menyenangkan QS 42 (30); 64 (11)
iqab, adzb, dharra, bas, sayyit

Bal: nyata/tampak QS 86 (9);
ujian QS 26 (7), 27 (40), 89 (15-17) , 3 (154)
Fitnah: ujian QS 8 (25,28), 21 (35)
http://gayonusantara.blogspot.com/2013/07/bencana-alam-menurut-perspektif-al-quran_8280.html
Thfn/sail : banjir QS 7 (133), 29 (14), 11 (42),
34 (16)
rajfah : gempa QS 7 (77-79, 91, 131-136, 155)
29 (37), 7
al-rh: angin QS 69 (6-7), 41 (16), 46 (24), 51 (41-42), 33 (9), 17 (69), 69 (6-7)
shiqah: petir QS 41 (13,17),
51 (43-44) , 7 (79)
Sijjil : hujan batu QS 11 (82-83)
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
urnal Matematika dan Sains ITB vol. 16 (1): 24-32.
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/385400.html
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
RESEP:

Model: MR (Multiple Regression)
Model Input/Predictors: ENSO + data kasus masa lalu + data lain
Modul Output/Predictant: data kasus tahun mendatang

Validasi: Rolling Validation/ One-step-ahead

training testing

training testing dan seterusnya

Akurasi prediksi: korelasi Pearson dan RMSE
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
Peru, Dominika, Vietnam, Indonesia
Information, Education, Communication
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
WHO, 2000. WHO report on global surveillance of epidemic-prone infectious diseases
http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/surveillance/WHO_CDS_CSR_ISR_2000_1/en/
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-
climatology/trends
2014, Denpasar
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events
2014, Denpasar
TORNADO OAK CLIFF
Foto: Justin Cozart
http://fototerbaru.org/gambar-angin-puting-
beliung-yang-dahsyat-tornado.html
http://wolipop.detik.com/read/2014/07/
13/111616/2635569/854/pasangan-ini-
buat-foto-pernikahan-dramatis-berlatar-
angin-puting-beliung (Foto: C. Niska)

TORNADO DI SASKATCHEWAN, CANADA
2014, Denpasar
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/events/2011/tornadoes/enso.html
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar
KASUS Korelasi Pearson RMSE (jumlah kasus)
DBD 0,71 4,31 10^4
Tornado -0,18 25
Wildfire -0,35 5,57 10^4
Bersama..Kita bisa!
dan tentu sajalebih cepat!
2014, Denpasar
2014, Denpasar

Simposium Fisika Nasional Bali, Bali

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Simposium Fisika Nasional Bali, Bali

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

PENGGUNAAN EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

UNTUK PREDIKSI BENCANA ALAM - DIMANA POSISI KITA?*

You might also like