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Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Lecture Slides

Elementary Statistics

Twelfth Edition

and the Triola Statistics Series

by Mario F. Triola

Section 5.2-2

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 5

Probability Distributions

5-1 Review and Preview

5-2 Probability Distributions

5-3 Binomial Probability Distributions

5-4 Parameters for Binomial Distributions

5-5 Poisson Probability Distributions

Section 5.2-3

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Key Concept

This section introduces the important concept of a

probability distribution, which gives the probability

for each value of a variable that is determined by

chance.

Give consideration to distinguishing between

outcomes that are likely to occur by chance and

outcomes that are unusual in the sense they are

not likely to occur by chance.

Section 5.2-4

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Random Variable

Probability Distribution

Random Variable

a variable (typically represented by x) that has a

single numerical value, determined by chance,

for each outcome of a procedure

Probability Distribution

a description that gives the probability for each

value of the random variable, often expressed in

the format of a graph, table, or formula

Section 5.2-5

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Discrete and Continuous

Random Variables

Discrete Random Variable

either a finite number of values or countable

number of values, where countable refers to

the fact that there might be infinitely many

values, but that they result from a counting

process

Continuous Random Variable

has infinitely many values, and those values

can be associated with measurements on a

continuous scale without gaps or interruptions.

Section 5.2-6

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Probability Distribution:

Requirements

1. There is a numerical random variable x and its

values are associated with corresponding

probabilities.

2. The sum of all probabilities must be 1.

3. Each probability value must be between 0 and

1 inclusive.

( )

1 P x =

( )

0 1 P x s s

Section 5.2-7

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Graphs

The probability histogram is very similar to a relative

frequency histogram, but the vertical scale shows

probabilities.

Section 5.2-8

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Mean

Variance

Variance (shortcut)

Standard Deviation

[ ( )] x P x = E

Mean, Variance and

Standard Deviation of a

Probability Distribution

2 2

[( ) ( )] x P x o = E

2 2 2

[( ( )] x P x o = E

2 2

[( ( )] x P x o = E

Section 5.2-9

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

The expected value of a discrete random

variable is denoted by E, and it represents

the mean value of the outcomes. It is

obtained by finding the value of

Expected Value

[ ( )]. x P x E

[ ( )] E x P x = E

Section 5.2-10

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

The following table describes the probability

distribution for the number of girls in two births.

Find the mean, variance, and standard

deviation.

Example

x P(x)

0 0.25

1 0.50

2 0.25

Total

Section 5.2-11

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

The following table describes the probability

distribution for the number of girls in two births.

Find the mean, variance, and standard

deviation.

Example

x P(x)

0 0.25 0.00 0.25

1 0.50 0.50 0.00

2 0.25 0.50 0.25

Total 1.00 0.50

( )

x P x ( ) ( )

2

x P x

Section 5.2-12

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

The following table describes the probability

distribution for the number of girls in two births.

Find the mean, variance, and standard

deviation.

Example

( )

( ) ( )

2

2

Mean 1.0

Variance 0.5

Standard Deviation 0.5 0.707

x P x

x P x

o

o

= = = (

(

= = =

= = =

Section 5.2-13

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Identifying Unusual Results

Range Rule of Thumb

According to the range rule of thumb, most

values should lie within 2 standard deviations

of the mean.

We can therefore identify unusual values

by determining if they lie outside these limits:

Maximum usual value =

Minimum usual value =

2 o +

2 o

Section 5.2-14

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Example continued

We found for families with two children, the mean number of

girls is 1.0 and the standard deviation is 0.7 girls.

Use those values to find the maximum and minimum usual

values for the number of girls.

( )

( )

maximum usual value 2 1.0 2 0.7 2.4

minimum usual value 2 1.0 2 0.7 0.4

o

o

= + = + =

= = =

Section 5.2-15

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Identifying Unusual Results

Probabilities

Rare Event Rule for Inferential Statistics

If, under a given assumption (such as the

assumption that a coin is fair), the probability

of a particular observed event (such as 992

heads in 1000 tosses of a coin) is extremely

small, we conclude that the assumption is

probably not correct.

Section 5.2-16

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Identifying Unusual Results

Probabilities

Using Probabilities to Determine When

Results Are Unusual

Unusually high: x successes among n

trials is an unusually high number of

successes if .

Unusually low: x successes among n

trials is an unusually low number of

successes if .

( or more) 0.05 P x s

( or fewer) 0.05 P x s

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