Identifying regions of Aviation

Icing using satellite imagery

Bodo Zeschke (BMTC)
Image from COMET
Image from BOM
I am Bodo Zeschke.

I worked for 8 years as a Forecaster at the Darwin Regional Forecasting
Centre. So icing forecasts have mainly been confined to icing occurring
within Northwest Cloud Bands and the monsoon.

Since 2009 have been facilitating at the Bureau of Meteorology Training
Centre in Docklands. Here I have been looking at low level icing during
our chart discussion sessions.

I enjoy collaborating with forecasters, and would like to thank NMOC
forecasters , particularly Ronik Kumar, for helpful suggestions for this
presentation.
SCRIPT SLIDE
Learning outcomes
Gain an understanding of different kinds of icing relevant to
aviation and the effects of this on aircraft performance.
Gain a better understanding of the clouds and synoptic settings
that are favourable for aircraft icing.
Gain familiarity with the procedure used by the National
Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC) and the
Regional Forecasting Offices of the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology for determining Aviation icing from satellite
imagery, soundings and model data.
Through participation in exercises gain a basic understanding of
aviation icing within a northwest cloud band and also an
enhanced convection situation over Indonesia.
The icing environment
0 to -15 C
BEWARE - Freezing Rain !
Image courtesy BOM
This diagram shows the gradation in water condensate phase with altitude.
Water freezes when its temperature reaches 0C or lower. All areas with
positive temperatures are not conducive to icing when an aircraft traverses
these regions.
On the other hand, supercooled water cannot exist below -38 C.
Clear ice forms from larger water droplets mostly at temperatures between
0 and -10 C, but can exist at temperatures as low as -25 C in Cb. At these
temperatures the supercooled water will freeze more slowly when it
contacts an aircraft, and extends further along the airfoil as it freezes. The
clear appearance of this ice means that it can be misinterpreted as a wet
surface by the pilot. This icing is very dangerous.
SCRIPT SLIDE
The icing environment
Rime ice forms from smaller and colder water droplets, typically in the
range -15 C to -38 C, with substantially lower risk at temperatures colder
than -20 C. The droplets freeze quickly, trapping air bubbles and this
gives them a white appearance. They are generally confined to the
leading edges of the aircraft.

Mixed ice, a combination of the two, can also occur, and is most likely in
the temperature range of -10C to -20C.

According to WMO documentation (CAeM) most occurrences of icing are
at temperatures between -3 and -7C.

Beware however. The most severe form of icing, with ice covering the
aircraft in a matter of seconds, occurs when rain falls into a sub-cloud
base temperature inversion, or above cloud level where the warm (>0C)
rain/drizzle falls into a subzero environment.

SCRIPT SLIDE
The icing environment
Rime Ice vs Clear Ice, various icing intensity
Image sourced from Meteo France and WMO 2005
Image sourced from NASA Lewis Research Centre, Meteo France + WMO
Rime Ice vs Clear Ice, various icing intensity
The top left hand picture shows the white encrustations of Rime Ice on
the nose of the propeller cone. The clear ice deposits can be seen less
clearly spreading out behind this.

The top right hand picture shows an example of light icing on the
leading edge of an aircrafts wing. Accretion greater than 1 g/cm2/hour
but less than 6 g/cm2/hour. This corresponds to a liquid water content
less than 0.6 g/m3. Here the rate of accumulation may create a
problem if flight is prolonged in the environment (i.e. more than one
hour). Occasional use of deicing/anti-icing equipment removes or
prevents accumulation. It does not present a problem if the deicing/anti-
icing equipment is used.

The bottom right hand picture shows an example of moderate icing on
the leading edge of an aircrafts wing. Accretion greater than 6
g/cm2/hour but less than 12 g/cm2/hour. This corresponds to a liquid
water content between 0.6 and 1.2 g/m3.
SCRIPT SLIDE
Rime Ice vs Clear Ice, various icing intensity
Moderate icing means the rate of accumulation is such that even short
encounters become potentially hazardous and use of deicing/anti-icing
equipment or diversion is necessary.

The bottom left hand picture shows an example of severe icing on the
leading edge of an aircrafts wing. Accretion greater than 12 g/cm2/hour.
This corresponds to a liquid water content greater than 1.2 g/m3.
Severe icing means the rate of accumulation is such that deicing/anti-
icing equipment fails to reduce or control the hazard. Immediate
diversion is necessary.

Icing is only included on area forecasts if it is considered moderate or
greater.

A SIGMET must be issued for severe icing conditions.

SCRIPT SLIDE
Icing effects on an aircraft
Diagram from BOM Aviation Forecasters Handbook (AFH)
Accumulation of ice can lower aircraft performance in many ways. It can:
Increase the stalling speed of the aircraft by changing the
aerodynamics of the wing and tail as well as increasing the weight.
Make it almost impossible to operate control surfaces and landing
gear.
Destroy the smooth flow of air over the aircraft.
Increase drag and decrease lift.
Cause engine failure.
Cause propeller vibrations.
Damage compressor blades of jet engines (chunks of ice can inject
into the engine). This can occur at temperatures above 0 Celsius.
Produce errors in instrument readings of air speed, altitude and
vertical speed.
Interfere with communication systems
Reduce visibility.
Icing effects on an aircraft
(from the Aeronautical Forecasters Handbook)
SCRIPT SLIDE
Icing severity
(from the Aeronautical Forecasters Handbook)
Icing severity depends on:
droplet size larger supercooled droplets lead to faster accumulation
rates, increasing the severity of icing potential (marine stratucumulus
very large droplets)
liquid water content (LWC) higher liquid water content leads to
greater icing potential (growing Cumulonimbus cloud has greatest
LWC)
air temperature the closer to zero on the freezing side, the higher
the risk of larger drops and higher liquid water content leading to more
severe cases of icing.
particulars of the individual aircraft, including the effectiveness of
the de-icing equipment.
Aircraft icing is a serious hazard for many types of aircraft, especially
light, fixed wing or rotary aircraft due to their relatively slow cruising
speeds and limited altitude range.
SCRIPT SLIDE
Cloud types and icing
Cb, TCu - possible severe
clear ice

Ac/As clear ice possible in
lower levels, light to
moderate rime ice

Ns moderate mixed icing
in the lower levels

Sc moderate rime ice if
freezing level is low
enough
Sc
Ns
Cb
TCu
As
Images from Wikipedia
Different cloud types and icing
The most severe icing can be expected in large cumulus and
cumulonimbus clouds, which usually contain a large concentration
of water and large drops.

Severe icing should be forecast if the vertical extent of the
convective cloud is greater than 10000ft. Note that in an Area
Forecast severe icing in cumulonimbus (Cb) is assumed.

Stable cloud has less supercooled liquid water content.

For stable clouds in layers the water distribution in the vertical plane
is irregular. Certain cases have the maximum at the bottom of the
cloud, while other samples have their maximum in the upper part.

Note that stratocumulus possesses both characteristics. Stable on
the broad scale, unstable on a small scale. Water content therefore
varies.


SCRIPT SLIDE
Areas of increased icing threat are common with:
Image courtesy BOM, satellite images courtesy BOM/JMA
Troughs Upslide flow Frontal Boundaries
Lows / TCs Thunderstorms
Orographic uplift Airmass blocking
trough systems, including pre-frontal troughs & an active
monsoonal trough;
areas of warm air advection or upslide (e.g. a northwest cloud
band);
frontal boundaries (typically above and upstream of the main
surface feature);
lows, including cut-off lows, extra tropical lows, tropical lows
and Tropical Cyclones (TCs).
Thunderstorms, esp. Mesoscale Convective Complexes
orographic uplift;
air mass blocking;
Areas of increased icing threat are common with:
SCRIPT SLIDE
Icing regions about a low pressure system and
associated fronts.
Diagram from Aviation Forecasters Handbook (adapted from COMET).
Icing regions about a low pressure system and
associated fronts.
The slide shows the icing regions about a low pressure system to
the south of Australia and the associated fronts.
The warm front boundary is often located on the poleward flank of
the system. Freezing rain can be a hazard associated with these
fronts, as the precipitation from the cloud falls into very cold high
latitude low level air.
However the warm front boundary is often located too far to the
south of Australia, and large intercontinental flights generally fly over
the main area of icing.
The cold front boundary is more of a problem for southern Australia.
The area of enhanced icing potential occurs within the cloud band
and may be hundreds of kilometers long and tens of kilometers
wide. Therefore the flight path in relation to the front relates to icing
threat.
SCRIPT SLIDE
NW Cloud Band / Monsoon trough
Both of these synoptic systems involve poleward moving air and the
associated large scale up-motion of a moist airmass.
Icing can be severe due to the widespread nature of the supercooled
midlevel cloud. Storms can be embedded within these systems, which
presents an additional icing hazard.
images courtesy BOM/JMA
Orographic cloud and upslide cloud
UPSLIDE
Inversion at or slightly below ridge level
Upslope cloud:
Example west to southwesterly winds over the Great Dividing
Range, that often create widespread cloudiness as the air is
forced eastwards over the gently rising terrain

Orographic cloud:
Develop along mountaintops and ridges, and can persist for days
if the winds and moisture are consistent.
image courtesy BOM
Orographic cloud and upslide cloud
(from the NSW Icing Directive)
One example of terrain effects are upslope west to southwesterly winds
over the Great Dividing Range of Australia that often create widespread
cloudiness as the air is forced eastward over the gently rising terrain.
These clouds can result in broad areas of icing conditions. Icing hazards
can also develop in orographic clouds, which tend to develop along
mountaintops and ridges and can persist for days if the winds and moisture
are consistent.

The effects of blocking by mountain barriers are significant, especially
during winter. Stable lapse rates and mountain top inversions may prevent
winds from ascending the terrain, leading to deceleration and deflection of
the flow. These processes can cause low-level convergence zones, clouds,
and precipitation, upstream of the mountain barrier. These upstream
convergent regions are favored icing areas.
SCRIPT SLIDE
Orographically lifted cloud icing incident 17 July 2007
Infrared satellite image over Victoria and New South Wales depicts
orographically -lifted cloud (light grey) formed in a convergent northwest
airstream, ahead of a cold front, resulting in an overcast, but not deep
layer of cloud with cloud top temps ~-7 to -10C. (AFH)
AREA OF THE INCIDENT

O = Melbourne Airport

X = Wagga Wagga Airport
Diagram from BOM Aviation Forecasters Handbook (AFH)
Orographically lifted cloud icing incident
From a communication between Geoff Feren and the pilot (2007).
The incident occurred near Mt. Hotham Airport, on the morning of 17 July
2007, ahead of the major front and associated deep cloud band responsible
for the recent intense cold outbreak.
The pilot left Moorabbin Airport early that morning, flying IFR in a twin-
engine aircraft, which was not equipped with anti-icing gear.
His major icing incident occurred between 7500 and 8000 feet at about
9.30am with ambient air temperature -4 oC, not far from Mount Hotham
Airport.
The plane became covered "from head to toe" in thick rime ice, resulting in
clogging of air intakes. After contacting ATC in Melbourne, he decided to
divert northwestwards towards Benalla, where he could safely descend to
6000 feet.
Large chunks of ice became dislodged from his aircraft, and he
subsequently landed at Albury. This may have been because the cloud base
was around 6000 feet.
SCRIPT SLIDE
Airmass blocking
Upstream air mass blocking can cause uplift of the oncoming air-
stream well windward of the actual mountain barrier.
Favourable conditions for icing.
Have occurred on the western slopes and ranges of VIC and NSW.
Freezing rain has been reported in these events.
Diagram from BOM Aviation Forecasters Handbook
Presenting the procedures used by the National
Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC) of
the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for determining
Aviation icing from satellite imagery.
NMOC attends to Aviation Icing for altitudes above 20,000 ft. NMOC
issues SIGMET over areas above FL185 (they also forecast icing for
the mid level charts FL 100 FL250)
The Regional Forecasting Centres attend to Aviation Icing for altitudes
below 20,000 ft within their areas of duty.
The highest altitude of icing that has been observed by NMOC
forecasters was at 23 - 24,000
Therefore, liaison between RFCs and NMOC is sometimes required.

SCRIPT SLIDE
Presenting the procedures used by the National
Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC) of
the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for determining
Aviation icing from satellite imagery.
NMOC forecasters examine the following satellite images:

The visible images to determine the thickness of the cloud. Also to
detect overshooting tops corresponding to cumulonimbus.
Cumulonimbus cloud has implied moderate and/or severe icing
associated with it.

The infrared images to verify the locations of cirrus. Also to
discriminate between cirrus and alto cloud on the basis of cloud top
temperature ie. grayscale. The alto cloud will have the serious aviation
icing associated with it.

The water vapour images to determine the mid to upper level flow, in
particular the moist and dry airmasses. Forecasters focus upon moist
confluent airstreams in poleward flow.

SCRIPT SLIDE
Presenting the procedures used by the National
Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC) of
the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for determining
Aviation icing from satellite imagery.
Forecasters examine the balloon soundings (F160s) of stations
nearby or under cloudband. In particular the vertical depth of 0 to -15
C layer. Depths 2500 or greater are a major concern. This procedure
is necessary to ground truth the models. Models generally do not have
the required details in the sounding.
The QANTAS icing product, in particular pressure levels where the
relative humidity is above 90% and the ambient temperature is
between 0 to -15C. Note that this product is presently replaced with
icing products within the Bureaus Visual Weather software, also with
web based aviation icing products.
Cross section of moisture and freezing level using model data.
Note that an AIREP generally has the highest priority.
SCRIPT SLIDE
Icing potential parameters in NWP data
(from WMO Tet1 prognostic variables - CAeM)
Liquid water content
The content of liquid water is a parameter that gives an excellent
indication of the icing potential. Expressed in grams per cubic meter.

Relative humidity
Saturation of air with icing potential can be represented by the relative
humidity of the air. If described correctly, it is also a parameter which
can eliminate areas without icing potential.
From a viewpoint of numerical models, relative humidity is also a
frequently calculated parameter.
NMOC rule is that 50-70% relative humidity results in possible icing,
70-90% likely icing potential, greater than 90% very likely icing
potential.
It is then logical that one associates icing potential to a cross
reference temperature / relative humidity

Vertical velocity
Sometimes vertical velocity is used as a complementary parameter to
discriminate icing conditions, especially when one does not have a
model prediction of liquid water content.
SCRIPT SLIDE
Icing potential parameters in NWP data
(from WMO Tet1 prognostic variables - CAeM)
Vertical velocity
Sometimes vertical velocity is used as a complementary parameter to
discriminate icing conditions, especially when one does not have a
model prediction of liquid water content. NMOC forecasters do not like
using the NWP vertical velocity data as it is often noisy.
SCRIPT SLIDE
Example 1: Northwest Cloud Band 31 May 2013
30 May 2013 00 UTC 31 May 2013 00 UTC
images courtesy BOM/JMA
Question is the cloud band developing or dissipating. What other feature may
be playing a part in its development ?
Northwest Cloud Band 31 May 2013
30 May 2013 00 UTC 31 May 2013 00 UTC
images courtesy BOM/JMA
Exercise indicate areas within the cloud where you might be expecting
significant icing
images courtesy University of Wisconsin CIMSS
Confluent flow. In particular from a moist source
(here streamlines have been fitted to the 600-400 hPa cloud drift winds)
31 May 2013 00 UTC
ACCESS T Icing product for 31 May 00 UTC
Percent humidity
(dark blue > 95%)

Isotherms in red

image courtesy BOM
ACCESS-T vertical cross section through the cloud
band.
BLUE corresponds to greater than 90 percent relative humidity. Below
400 hPa and above the freezing level this can correspond to very high
possibility of icing
Icing conditions generally not seen above 400hPa
A
B
400 hPa
A
B
images courtesy BOM
Icing evaluation on Port Hedland balloon sounding
image courtesy BOM
-15C
0C
Want about
2500 3000 ft
of depth
13500
23500
10000 icing
Note that the dewpoint
depression is very small
(less than 5 degrees)
between 13500 and
23500 feet.
Port Hedland and
Giles balloon
soundings
Port Hedland Giles
images courtesy BOM
-15C
0C
-15C
0C
Question does the Giles sounding show worse icing conditions than Port Hedland ?
Worse icing Same icing Less icing
NMOC SIGWX product 31 May 00 UTC
Northwest Cloud Band 31 May 2013
Summary of the exercise
Moist tropical confluent flow from the northwest to the southeast
across northwestern and central Australia is evident in the water
vapour imagery.
The QANTAS icing product at 500 hPa indicates a large area
within this cloud band that has relative humidity greater than
95% at temperatures between -5 and -15 C.
The NWP vertical cross section from the northwest coast to
central Australia shows a deep region of high relative humidity
between freezing level and 23000 ft.
Examination of the Port Hedland and the Giles soundings
verifies the model data, showing saturation through a depth in
excess of 10000 feet between the temperatures of 0 and -15C.
This is confirmed by the NMOC SIGWX product, where severe
icing is analysed, extending from the northwest maritime region
of Australia through central Australia and into southern
Australia.
SCRIPT SLIDE
Indonesian example, 6 July 2013
5 July 12UTC 5 July 18UTC
6 July 00UTC 6 July 00UTC
images courtesy University of Wisconsin CIMSS, bottom RHS picture BOM/JMA
Jakarta
Brunei
Indonesian example, 6 July 2013
5 July 12UTC 5 July 18UTC
6 July 00UTC 6 July 00UTC
images courtesy University of Wisconsin CIMSS, bottom RHS picture BOM/JMA
Indonesian example, 6 July 2013
images courtesy BOM, BMKG
Indonesian example, 6 July 2013
Satellite imagery and synoptic setting

From examination of the infrared and enhanced infrared imagery
we can see an extensive area of deep convection developing
over the northwest coast and adjacent regions of Kalimantan
during the night of 5/6
th
July.
The convective region and associated deep stratiform cloud
extends approximately 5 degrees latitude at 00UTC on the
morning of the 6
th
July.
The area of storms is located in a region of low level south /
southwest confluence on the BMKG gradient wind chart.
Confluence is annotated over northernmost Kalimantan in the
Darwin RSMC gradient wind chart however. Upper level
divergence is indicated in the Darwin RSMC 200 hPa chart with
stronger winds, in excess of 20 knots located to the west of
Kalimantan.
It appears that we may be dealing with a Mesoscale Convective
Complex, developing within a low level convergent zone.
SCRIPT SLIDE
Hypothetical flight from Brunei to Jakarta
6 July 2013 00 UTC
QANTAS icing product for
00UTC 6
th
July 2013, at
500 hPa


Temperature contour = - 5C,
contour interval 5 degrees

Light blue = from 50 to 75%
RH

Medium blue > 75% RH

Dark blue > 95%
Jakarta
Brunei
-5 C -5 C
-5 C
EXERCISE - Outline in the
vertical cross section where
you may expect severe icing
(RH greater 90% for relevant
temperatures)
Indonesian example, 6 July 2013
Freezing level
anotated by FZL

Medium green >80%
Relative Humidity

Dark Green > 90%
Relative Humidity
A
B
A
B
Brunei Airport (WBSB) sounding, 00UTC 6 July
0 C -15 C
16500
23500
QUESTION icing
problem ?

Yes


No
Kuching (WBGG) sounding, 00UTC 6 July
0 C -15 C
14000
22500 QUESTION icing
problem ?

Yes


No
Jakarta (WIII) sounding, 00UTC 6 July
0 C -15 C
14000
21000
18500
QUESTION icing
problem ?

Yes


No
Comparison with SIGWX prognosis chart
Jakarta
Brunei
QUESTION what would
you do ?.

A: issue a SIGMET for
Icing for the identified area.

B: issue a SIGMET for
embedded Cb for the
identified area.

C: Dont worry. The
forecast is close enough !
Indonesian example, 6 July 2013
Examination of the QANTAS icing product and other NWP data. Also the
Brunei, Kuching and Jakarta soundings:
The QANTAS icing product at 500 hPa indicates a large area over
western Kalimantan that has relative humidity greater than 95% at
temperatures between 0 and -10 C.
The NWP vertical cross section from Brunei to Jakarta shows relative
humidities in excess of 90% from the freezing level (around 600 hPa) to
400 hPa. Over most of the Brunei Jakarta flight path.
Examination of the Brunei, Kuching and Jakarta soundings show
saturation through a depth of about 8500 feet between the temperatures
of 0 and -15C for Kuching. This is less for the Jakarta and Brunei
soundings. You are asked to slect which of the soundings shows
significant icing potential.
Examination of the WAFC London SIGWX prognosis shows that EMBD
CB is not annotated over the Brunei Jakarta route. You are asked to
suggest a suitable forecasting strategy on the previous slide. The next
slide shows useful ASH SIGMET rules to help you.
SCRIPT SLIDE
Aviation Services Handbook SIGMET rules for
thunderstorms

SIGMET for thunderstorms are only issued when any one of the
following conditions is observed or expected:

a. Obscured (OBSC TS) by haze or smoke,

b. Embedded (EMBD TS) within cloud layers and cannot be
readily recognised,

c. Frequent (FRQ TS), i.e. an area of thunderstorms with little
or no separation between adjacent storms and covering more
than 75% of the affected area. The area affected would be of
the order of at least 3 000 square nautical miles (3000 square
miles = about , or 54 miles square or 87 km

d. Squall-line thunderstorms (SQL TS), i.e. thunderstorms
along a line of about 100 nautical miles (161 km) or more in
length, with little or no separation between the clouds.
SCRIPT SLIDE
Summary
Have gained an understanding of different kinds of icing
relevant to aviation and the effects of this on aircraft
performance.
Have gained a better understanding of the clouds and
synoptic settings that are favourable for aircraft icing.
Through participation in exercises using procedures
used by NMOC and Bureau Regional Forecasting
Offices have gained a basic understanding of aviation
icing within a northwest cloud band and also an
enhanced convection situation over Indonesia.
References
Aeronautical Services Handbook
http://web.bom.gov.au/spb/adpo/aviation/ash.shtml

Bureau of Meteorology Aviation Forecaster Handbook
http://web.bom.gov.au/spb/adpo/aviation/afh.shtml

Bureau of Meteorology: Hazardous Weather Phenomena Airframe
Icing http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/data/education/hwp-icing.pdf

Forecasting Aviation Icing: Icing Type and Severity. MetEd (COMET)
module http://www.meted.ucar.edu/icing/pcu6/index_flash.htm?0

WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)
www.caem.wmo.int