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Lecture on Modeling and Simulation of Communication and Computer Network

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**Modeling and Simulation of
**

Communication and Computer

Network

Prof. Dr. Mahamod Ismail

mahamod@eng.ukm.my

TEACHING PLAN (1/3)

Week Topics

1

(MBI)

Introduction to Simulation and Performance Modeling:

Analytical and Monte Carlo

2

(MBI)

Simulation Principle:

Event and Time Driven

3

(MBI)

Simulation Model:

Statistical, Random and Queue

4

(MBI)

Model Verification/Validation, Input/Output Analysis

LECTURE 2

SIMULATION PRINCIPLE

Introduction

• Stochastic (random process) or deterministic (a

computation that given an initial state of the system will

always produce the same final state when given the same

input)

• Steady-state or dynamic

• Continuous (small changes in the input result in small

changes in the output) or discrete (ex: events over time)

• Local or distributed (using two or more computers

communicating over a network to accomplish a common

objective or task)

Introduction

• Stochastic models use random number generators to model the

chance or random events; they are also called Monte Carlo

simulations. Ex: rainfall/runoff models

• A discrete event simulation (DE) manages events in time. Most

computer simulations are of this type. In this type of simulation, the

simulator maintains a queue of events sorted by the simulated time

they should occur. The simulator reads the queue and triggers new

events as each event is processed. It is not important to execute the

simulation in real time. It's often more important to be able to access

the data produced by the simulation, to discover logic defects in the

design, or the sequence of events.

Introduction

• A continuous simulation uses differential equations, implemented

numerically. Periodically, the simulation program solves all the

equations, and uses the numbers to change the state and output of the

simulation. Most flight and racing-car simulations are of this type. This

may also be used to simulate electrical circuits.

• Distributed models run on a network of interconnected computers,

possibly through the Internet. Simulations dispersed across multiple

host computers like this are often referred to as "distributed

simulations". There are several military standards for distributed

simulation.

Introduction

Computer simulations are used in a wide variety of practical

contexts, such as:

– analysis of air pollutant dispersion using atmospheric dispersion

modeling

– design of complex systems such as aircraft and also logistics

systems.

– design of Noise barriers to effect roadway noise mitigation

– flight simulators to train pilots

– weather forecasting

Can you think of others?

Introduction

Deterministic vs. Stochastic

• Computer simulation has to do with using

computer models to imitate real life or make

predictions.

• A model consists of a certain number of input

parameters and a few equations that use

those inputs to give a set of outputs (or

response variables).

• The model is usually either deterministic or

stochastic.

10

Deterministic vs. Stochastic

• In the deterministic model, the results will be

the same no matter how many times re-

calculate is done.

11

Deterministic vs. Stochastic

Deterministic v. Stochastic

Fixed Data

7%

Fixed Outcomes

$1,200,00

Variable data

Variable Outcomes

Deterministic

Stochastic

3 5 0 .0 0 4 2 5 .0 0 5 0 0 .0 0 5 7 5 .0 0 6 5 0 .0 0

Monthly S avings

Frequency Chart

D ol l ars

M e an = $6 46, 19 8

. 00 0

. 02 4

. 04 7

. 07 1

. 09 4

0

11 .7 5

2 3. 5

35 .2 5

4 7

$3 00, 00 0 $5 25, 00 0 $7 50, 00 0 $9 75, 00 0 $1 ,2 00, 00 0

500 Trials 6 Outliers

Forecast: Scenario ARetirement Portfolio

13

Deterministic vs. Stochastic

• A stochastic model is one that involves

probability or randomness.

• For example, random selection of parts in

order to assemble the hinge.

15

Monte Carlo Simulation

• A Monte Carlo method is a technique or

computational algorithm that involves using repeated

random numbers and probability to solve problems.

• The term Monte Carlo Method was coined by S. Ulam

and Nicholas Metropolis in reference to games of

chance, a popular attraction in Monte Carlo, Monaco

(Hoffman, 1998; Metropolis and Ulam, 1949).

• Monte Carlo simulation is a method for iteratively

evaluating a deterministic model using sets of random

numbers as inputs.

16

Monte Carlo Simulation

• Monte Carlo simulation is often used when the model

is complex, nonlinear, or involves more than just a

couple uncertain parameters.

• A simulation can typically involve over 10,000

evaluations of the model, a task which in the past was

only practical using super computers.

• The Monte Carlo method is analyze uncertainty

propagation, where the goal is to determine how

random variation, lack of knowledge, or error affects

the sensitivity, performance, or reliability of the

system that is being modelled.

Monte Carlo Simulation

• Monte Carlo simulation is categorized

as a sampling method because the

inputs are randomly generated from

probability distributions to simulate the

process of sampling from an actual

population.

• The data generated from the simulation

can be represented as probability

distributions (or histograms) or

converted to error bars, reliability

predictions, tolerance zones, and

confidence intervals.

Monte Carlo Simulation

• Monte Carlo follows the five simple steps listed

below:

– Step 1: Create a parametric model, y = f(x

1

, x

2

, .., x

q

).

– Step 2: Generate a set of random inputs, x

i1

, x

i2

, .., x

iq

.

– Step 3: Evaluate the model and store the results as y

i

.

– Step 4: Repeat steps 2 and 3 for i = 1 to n.

– Step 5: Analyze the results using histograms, summary

statistics, confidence intervals, etc.

Monte Carlo

techniques can

be used in

“Battleship”

Monte Carlo Simulation

The first figure is simply a unit circle circumscribed by a

square. We could examine this problem in terms of the

full circle and square, but it's easier to examine just one

quadrant of the circle.

Calculation of p

using Monte Carlo

Techniques

Monte Carlo Simulation

Poor dart

players simulate

Monte Carlo

techniques

Monte Carlo Simulation

MC makes

it easy as

pi!

• # darts hitting shaded area / # darts hitting

square = ¼ p r

2

/ r

2

p = 4 [# darts hitting shaded area / # darts hitting

square]

Monte Carlo Simulation

Time-Driven Simulation

• In a time-driven simulation we have a variable

recording the current time, which is incremented

in fixed steps.

• After each increment we check to see which

events may happen at the current time point, and

handle those that do.

• For example, suppose we want to simulate the

trajectory of a projectile.

– At time zero we assign it an initial position and

velocity.

– At each time step we calculate a new position and

velocity using the forces acting on the projectile.

Time-Driven Simulation

• Time-driven simulation is suitable here

because there is an event (movement) that

happens at each time step.

• How do know when to stop the simulation?

– We can use either the criterion of time reaching a

certain point, or the model reaching a certain

state, or some combination of the two.

Time-Driven Simulation

• General algorithm for time-driven simulation:

1. Initialize the system state and simulation

time

2. while (simulation is not finished)

a) Collect statistics about the current state

b) handle events that occurred between last

step and now

c) Increment simulation time

Event Driven Simulation

• Use when

– events aren't guaranteed to occur at regular

intervals

– don't have a good bound on the time step (it

shouldn't be so small as to make the simulation

run too long, nor so large as to make the number

of events unmanageable)

• Example

– A line-up at a bank, where customers don't arrive

at regular time intervals, and may be deterred by

a long line-up.

Event Driven Simulation

• Use when

– events aren't guaranteed to occur at regular

intervals

– don't have a good bound on the time step (too

small make simulation run too long; too large make

the number of events unmanageable)

• Stop program?

– when time reaches a certain point, or when the

system reaches a certain state.

• Example

– A line-up at a bank, where customers don't arrive

at regular time intervals, and may be deterred by a

long line-up.

Event Driven Simulation

• A generic event-driven algorithm:

1. Initialize system state

2. Initialize event list

3. While (simulation not finished)

a) Collect statistics from current state

b) Remove first event from list, handle it

c) Set time to the time of this event.

• The list of events can be managed in ordered

by increasing time (a priority heap might be

efficient) and not to generate all the events in

the list at the beginning.

Event Driven Simulation

• We initialize the simulation with certain

events, with their associated times.

• Certain events may be handled by scheduling

later events, which are inserted at the

appropriate place in the event list.

• Stop the event:

– When time reaches or exceeds a certain point, or

once the system reaches a certain state

– Can also be randomized:

• Schedule a random pseudo-event which doesn't

change the state of the model, but simply stops the

simulation.

Discrete Event Model

• An instant is a value of system time at which the value

of at least one attribute of an object can be assigned.

• An interval is the duration between two successive

instants.

• A time span is the contiguous succession of one or

more intervals.

• The state of an object at a particular instant is the

enumeration of all attribute values of that object at

that instant, The state consists of all the object states

at a particular instant.

Event Driven Simulation

Event Driven Simulation

• An instant is a value of system time at which the value

of at least one attribute of an object can be assigned.

• An interval is the duration between two successive

instants.

• A time span is the contiguous succession of one or

more intervals.

• The state of an object at a particular instant is the

enumeration of all attribute values of that object at

that instant, The state consists of all the object states

at a particular instant.

Event Driven Simulation

References

• Dr. Anis Koubâa, CS433: Modeling and Simulation

(http://coins.csrlab.org/imamu/akoubaa/cs433/)

• ref

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