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industries with the result that the consequence of

failure has become either much more expensive, as

in the case of low availability or potentially

catastrophic makes the following more important:

1. Prediction of the expected life of plant and its major

parts.

2. Prediction of the availability of plant

3. Prediction of the expected maintenance load

4. Prediction of the support system resources needed

for effective operation

These predictions can only result from careful

consideration of reliability and maintainability

factors at the design stage.

Profile

often assumed that the hazard or time- dependent

failure rate of items follows the shape of a bathtub

with three main phases

Profile

break-in , debugging):

During this phase the hazard rate decrease and the

failure occur due to causes such as:

Over-stressed parts

Wrong handling or

packaging

Inadequate materials

Incorrect installation or

setup

Poor technical

representative training

Marginal parts

Poor manufacturing

processes or tooling

Power surges

Profile

The useful life phase:

failures occur randomly or unpredictably. Some of

the causes of the failure include:

A. Insufficient design margins

B. Incorrect use environments

C. Undetectable defects

D. Human error and abuse

E. Unavoidable failures

Profile

its useful life phase):

During this phase the hazard rate increases. Some

of the causes of the failure include:

A. Wear due to aging.

B. Inadequate or improper preventive maintenance

C. Limited-life components

D.Wear-out due to friction, misalignments,

corrosion and creep

E. Incorrect overhaul practices.

Profile

generality of components is obtained by drawing

the three possible Z(t)

However, the following will vary by orders

magnitude from one sort of item to another:

1. The absolute levels of Z(t)

2. The time scale involved

3. The relative lengths of phases I, II, and III

Some times one or two of the phases could be

effectively absent.

Profile

probability profile of the constituent components

are an essential requirement for the prediction of

system reliability.

distribution, then leads to estimates of availability,

maintainability, and the level (and cost) of

corrective and preventive maintenance.

Systems (plants or equipment)

To predict the reliability of complex plant the

following should be performed:

1. Regard the large and complex system (plant) as a

hierarchy of units and items (equipment) ranked

according to their function and replaceability.

2. At each functional level, the way in which the units

and items (equipment) in this level is connected is

determine (The equipment in general could be

connected in series, in parallel or in some

combination of either)

Systems (plants or equipment)

3. The appropriate measure of reliability is calculated

for each unit and item (in this analysis The

appropriate measure of reliability is the survival

probability P(t)).

4. The analysis starts from the component level

upwards and at the end of the analysis the survival

probability of the system Ps(t) is calculated.

Systems (plants or equipment)

5. All the component mean failure rates are calculated.

They are either being known or susceptible to

estimation.

6. At each level the survival probability calculation

takes the functional configuration into account.

7. The result P(t) of the system can be used in the

selection of design or redesign alternatives, in the

calculation of plant availability, or in the prediction

of maintenance work load.

Series-Connected Components

works if all the components in this system work.

system is quite uninfluenced by that of the others

(failure probabilities are statistically independent),

the survival probability of the system Ps(t) at time t

is given by the product of the separate survival

probabilities,P1(t), P2(t), .Pi(t) of the components

at the time t.

Series-Connected Components

(independent and nonidentical), survival probability

of the system is:

Rs = R1. R2. R3. .. Rn

Series-Connected Components

(independent and nonidentical), survival probability

of the system is:

Ps(t) = P1(t) . P2(t) . P3(t) . . Pn(t)

And the system reliability is:

Rs = R1. R2. R3. .. Rn

Since survival probabilities must always be less

than 100%, it follows that Ps(t) for the system must

be less than that of any individual component.

Series-Connected Components

according to the exponential p.d.f, then the overall

p.d.f of times-to-failure is also exponential:

(t) = (1 + 2 + .. +n) exp (-(1+2+ . +n)t)

failure of unit i, the unit reliability is:

Ri(t) = exp (-i t)

Series-Connected Components

Rs(t) = exp (- i t)

MTTFs = exp (- i t) dt

= 1/ i

s(t) = i

Parallel-Connected Components

fails if all the components in this system fail. (at

least one of the units must work normally for

system success)

If the failure behavior of any component in the

system is quite uninfluenced by that of the others

(failure probabilities are statistically independent),

the failure probability Fps(t) that all components

will fail before time t has elapsed is given by the

product of the separate failure probabilities,F1(t),

F2(t), .Fi(t).

Parallel-Connected Components

the failure probability of the system:

Fps(t) = F1(t) . F2(t) . . Fi(t) . .. Fn(t)

Pps(t) = 1 - F1(t) . F2(t) . . Fi(t) . .. Fn(t)

= 1 (1- P1(t))(1 P2(t)) . (1- Pn(t))

Parallel-Connected Components

Rps = 1 (1 R1)(1 R2)(1 R3)..(1 Rn)

100%, it follows that the survival probability P(t)

for the system must be grater than that of either of

its components.

Parallel-Connected Components

according to the exponential p.d.f, then the overall

p.d.f of times-to-failure is not a simple exponential.

For example, if the system compose of two

component, then the system times-to-failure p.d.f :

Parallel-Connected Components

unit i, the parallel system reliability is:

Rps = 1- (1- exp (-i t))

parallel system simplifies to:

Rps = 1 (1- exp (-t))

Parallel-Connected Components

parallel system is:

MTTFps = [ 1- (1 exp (-t)) ] dt = 1/ 1/i

MTTF = (t) t dt

= 1/1 + 1/2 1/(1+2)

Parallel-Connected Components

are:

1. To improve reliability of the system by making

some of the equipment redundant to the other.

2. Extensive preventive maintenance can be pursued

with no loss in plant availability since the separate

parallel units can be isolated.

3. In the event of failure corrective maintenance can

be arranged under less pressure from production or

from competing maintenance tasks.

Parallel-Connected Components

only very marginal increments in reliability to be

gained by installing redundant capacity unless the

safety factors become evident.

than the anticipated life of the system. In this case,

the reliability of the system will be maintained only

if such components are replaced prior to failure and

the replacement should:

1. Interfere as little as possible with the operation of

other components.

2. Not interrupt normal operation or production

3. Occur at intervals which exceed, as far as possible,

the maximum operational cycle or production run.

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