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REDUCING EMISSION FROM DEFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION ( REDD ) IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES : A CASE STUDY OF INDONESIA

( Part of Proposed Background Research )

By : Kadim Martana Supervisor : Assoc . Prof . Bruce Manley
Co - Supervisor : Dr . David Evison

School of Forestry , University of Canterbury
New Zealand

Outline
1 . International

Context 2 . Indonesian Process on REDD 3 . REDD Demonstration Activity 4 . Proposed Research

1 . International Context
nEmission

from Forestry Sector ~ 17.4% of total world emissions (A 4th AR IPCC, 2007; Stern Review, 2007).

1 . Int ’ l context .. Cont .
nAbout

75% of the forestry sector’s emission come from developing countries [ e.g. Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, PNG, Gabon, Costa Rica, Cameroon, Rep. of Congo, Democratic Rep. of Congo] - (A 4th AR, IPCC 2007). nSource of emissions :
nPNG

& 2008)

deforestation (conversion from land to non-forested land) forest degradation (i.e. reduction of forest’s capability). Costa Rica’s proposal (COP 11th UNFCCC, 2005 (www.unfccc.int;

MoF,

to

provide incentive to compensate with developing countries’ efforts to Avoiding Deforestation (later known as Reducing
Deforestation and Degradation in Developing Countries/REDD) Mechanism,

n n

1 . Int ’ l context .. Cont .
nCOP-13th UNFCCC

adopted Decision 2/CP.13 on Policy Approaches and Positives Incentives on REDD (including An Indicative Guidance for Further Implementation of Demonstration Activities on REDD) (www.unfccc.int; MoF, 2008).

V

Compensation for emission reduction

Carbon Emissions

BAU
Reference level (Baseline)

REDD t

past

future

Source :

Ministry o Forestry , Indonesia ( 2008 )

2 . Indonesian Process on REDD
•Forest in Indonesia, based on functions
Tot al f or est ar ea : 123.45 mi l l i on ha (~ 60 % of t he count r y l and ar ea)
14.06M ha (11 % ) 20.08 M ha (16 % )

Forest Category:
Conservati on Protecti on Producti on Converti bl e

57. 53 M ha (47 %)

31.78 M ha (26 % )

Source : Directorate General of Forest Planning , MoF Indonesia ( 2006 )

2 . Indonesian Process … Cont .
nDeforestation

rate in Indonesia

Million ha/year

3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

Economic crisis , Forest industry dev ., Decentralization Pulp & paper plantation , Estate crops plantation ( oil palm , rubber , cocoa )

Moratorium on forest conversion , Reduced AAC , Law enforcement , Improved forest management .

1985-1997

1997-2000 Tim period e

2000-2005

Source : Directorate General of Forest Planning , MoF Indonesia ( 2006 )

• Further Look at Source of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Indonesia
Expansion of palm oil plantation Increase demand to agriculture land ( subsistence farmers )

2 . Indonesian Process … Cont .
Exposed to Repeated fires

Forest areas ( production forest , conversion forest , protection forest , conservation forest ) including peat land forest

Deforested Degraded

Note : Carbon credit from REDD in tropical countries is expected to be $15 - 50 billion / year ( assumed REDD at 50 % or 2 . 4 Gt CO 2 per year )

Illegal to high of wood mixed hardwood limited source

logging due dependency supply from tropical forests and alternative of incomes

Unsustainable forest management practices by forest concessionaires

2 . Indonesian Process … Cont .
nIndonesia

formed Indonesia Forest Climate Alliance (IFCA), consisted of Governments, Private Entities, and Communities – a stakeholder’s consultation forum working on forest and climate in Indonesia, to analyse how a REDD Scheme could operate as a practical carbon emission reduction (June 2007) nCoordinated by the MoF, supported by partners (UK, Germany, Australia, WB). nThe IFCA provided preparation of papers which address elements of the supply chain necessary to produce carbon credits from REDD in Indonesia.
n

2 . Indonesian Process … Cont .
nDeforestation

and Forest Degradation Reduction Strategies of Indonesia ( based on IFCA Study results , 2007 ):
Forest Function Recommended strategy initiative The development of a revised national conservation strategy , The development of a professional and sufficient management structures , The confirmation of boundaries and the completion of the legal gazettal process . process.
 

1

Protected Areas

2

Production Forests

Review the production forest function ,

create new supply , restructuring wood products sector ), Review management practices in production forest units ,

Reduce flow of illegal logs into market

( law enforcement ,

3

Oil Palm

Consolidate policy and approval for releasing Convertible Areas for palm developments , developments, Review spatial plans to optimise degraded lands , Intensify production per unit land Require zero burning

4

Peatland

Regulate and restore water table ,


Regulate further conversion of peatland , revise & enforce rules for management of existing peatland , Implement land swaps to retain high carbon value forest and peats while allocating alternative land for new plantations

Prevent fire ,

2 . Indonesia Process … Cont .
lIndonesia

REDD framework/infrastructure on REDD includes: a .Setting Reference Emission Level (Baseline) a. b .Strategies b. c.Monitoring c. d .Market d. e.Benefit distribution. e. lIndonesia moves to implement Demonstration Activities on REDD

3 . Demonstration Activity on REDD
nAs

a follow up from COP - 13 th UNFCCC ’ s Decision 2 / CP . 13 , Indonesia has some cooperations with partners to implement REDD Demonstration Activities / DA .
(http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cop13/eng/06a01.pdf#page=3)

nObjectives

of the DA are to : Demonstrate REDD provide shared learning and experience on REDD to international communities .

n

3 . Demonstration … Cont .

What activities in the region?

Activities are basically derived from recommended strategies , which are carried out at the regional level .

These include ( summarized from KFCP Projects in Central Kalimantan / ex . Mega Rice Project and proposed activities at Berau District , East Kalimantan ) :

 

 

Addressing drivers of deforestation ( rehabilitation of 1 million Ha degraded peatland – ex mega rice project , restoration of peatland hydrology , law enforcement to illegal logging ); Fire prevention ( community based forest fire management ), monitoring Community based forest management for REDD , Agro - forestry and other forest based lively initiatives , Information sharing and outreach . Improved management of Forest Production Management ( for TNC proposals , since it includes production

3 . Demonstration … Cont .
nProposed

Location of DAs and Partners:

Kalimantan

Forest Carbon Partnership (KFCP), as part of Indonesia-Australia Forest Carbon Partnership (IAFCP); located in Central Kalimantan . Indonesia – Germany (in East Kalimantan) (Joint Study Report, 2008) Indonesia – UNREDD Programme (initial stage, in North Sulawesi) Indonesia – The Nature Conservation (TNC); proposed location in Berau District, East Kalimantan

3 . Demonstration … Cont .
•Proposed locations of REDD DAs in Indonesia

Indonesia - TNC

Indonesia - Germany

Indonesia UNREDD
Indonesia - Australia

4 . Proposed Research .
Socio Economic Factors Affecting Behavioural Changes of Forest - Stakeholders in the participation of REDD DA : A study Case of Indonesia Main Objective : to investigate socio economic factors that induce changes of forest - stakeholders ’ participation on REDD DA .

•Some references : ( 2007 ). Climate Change 2007 : Synthesis Report . An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Ministry of Forestry , Indonesia ( 2008 ). Consolidation Report : Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in Indonesia . Jakarta 10270 , Forestry Research and Development Agency ( FORDA ) Ministry of Forestry of the Republic of Indonesia . ( 2008 ). Support to Formulation of a Forest Programme embedded into the REDD Process : Joint FC - TC Feasibility Study for the Indonesian - German Forest and Climate Change Programme . German Financial Cooperation with the Republic of Indonesia . Other sources : www . unfccc . int http :// www . climatechange . gov . au / international / publications / pubs / kalimantan . pdf http :// www . un - redd . net / Foto sources : http :// www . borneotourgigant . com / http :// www . geocities . com / degigant / West_Borneo . html Presentation by Indonesia Forest Concession Holders Association

Thank You …

Terima kasih …

3 . Demonstration … Cont .
Decision 2 / CP . 13 provides some Indicative Guidance : nDemonstration activities should be undertaken with the approval of the host Party . nEmission reductions from national demonstration activities should be assessed on the basis of national emissions from deforestation and forest degradation . nSub - national demonstration activities should be assessed within the boundary used for the demonstration , and assessed for associated displacement of emissions . nReductions in emissions or increases resulting from the demonstration activity should be based on historical emissions , taking into account national circumstances . nSub - national approaches ( activities within national boundary ), where applied , should constitute a step towards the development of national approaches , reference levels and estimates . nDemonstration activities should be consistent with sustainable forest management , noting , inter alia , the relevant provisions of the United Nations Forum on Forests , the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and the Convention on Biological Diversity . nIndependent expert review is encouraged

2. Indonesian Readiness.. Cont’
National Policy: road map on REDD 2007
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Post 2012

Preparation Phase
* Analysis (Architecture and Strategies) * Communication/ Coordination/Consultations

COP 13

-Design Fine Tuning -System Establishment - Pilot Design

Carbon-Finance (Pilots)
Workshop, SBSTA, UNFCCC, G8, Etc.

- Pilot Implementation -Testing -Knowledge Management

Full Implementation of REDD

COP13

COP14

COP15

IFCA process in the National Climate Change context prior COP-13
GOI National Coordination
Ministry of Environment
President of COP-13 Team Resource Persons for WG

Energy

Adaptation

Forestry

Tech. Transfer

Post 2012

Financing

CDM

7 Technical Working Groups on COP 13

MoFr
Donors : World Bank, UK, Germany, Australia,, Etc

MoF COP 13 Steering Committee (Eselon I Dephut)

MoF Chair of Team COP13 MoF Chair of Sub Team COP 13 on Substantive Issues

Alliance / IFCA
MoFr, Other Mins, Local Govs, CSOs, Academia, Donors, Private Sector, Int. Org
(Indonesia Forest Climate Alliance) :

MoFr Chair of Sub Team COP 13 on Side Events

3 Activities

Methodology/architecture
Study On Methodology for Measuring and Monitoring Carbon Stocks Study On Quantification of past and future carbon emissions Study On Consolidation of Payment Mechanism

Strategy
Study On Pulp & Paper Study On Oil Palm

Stakeholders
Consultations Coordination Communication

9 Studies

Study On Production Forest Study On Protected Area Study On Peat Land

Study On Market

Consolidation
Source, MOF 2007

REDD Mechanism
Compensation for emission reduction Carbon Stock Carbon emission
?

?

BAU Reference level REDD

past

future

To achieve such established (agreed) level of (emission/deforestation) reduction, strategies must be implemented in the field, following the recommended strategies. Strategies comprise a set of activities, and act as inputs (money injection)

REDD REDD Area (e.g. District)
Sustainable forest management of Production Forest

Protection Forest

Avoid degradation

Illegal logging (Rate of 1000 ha/year) Involvement of community in CDM Project

From RIL

Community is given concession right to Protection forest is preserved (deforestation manage forest rate reduced to 500 ha/year, therefore sustainably
reduction of emission ~ 500*300 ton C + Others (RIL, A/R CDM, Communty..)

From A/R CDM

Source : Boer, 2007

4. Emerging Questions
Common question: What impacts would likely be of the REDD DA in term of social and economic, (+environment) ? At regional, national level? Specific questions:

1. 2. 3.

4. Other questions: 1. 2. 3.
 

How to assess current impacts of the REDD DA? From the current state, how to further predict impacts from such intervention? – i.e. modelling impacts? Can we go further to assess impact of the intervention toward local communities and other people dependent on forests? E.g. Households income? Can we go further to following questions How can we link between the set of emission/deforestation target with those recommended/implemented activities? Given limited resources to implement strategies, to what extent that level of (emission/deforestation) reduction could be achieved. In another way, Given an established (emission/deforestation) target, how much resources for the strategies (a set of activities) should be provided? i.e. LP problem? Considering many type of activities in the DA, how is the relative performance of each activity in the reduction of emissions? How to measure? i.e Efficiency analysis?

Proposed aim:

5. My Proposed research

This study aims at to investigate forestry sector’s potential impacts to a regional economic development due to an inclusion of reducing emission from deforestation and degradation (REDD) mechanism. What would be economic and social impact s to a region ? e.g. economic value, job creation from the strategies/activities implemented? How can we link between strategies/activities with targeted reduction of deforestation? Can we measure, its impact to low income groups / forest dependent people? How is it compared to other medium and high income groups? i.e. measuring income distribution. Can we link between three factors: level of deforestation reduction, expansion of implemented strategies/activities, and regional economic conditions?

Research questions:

  

5. My Proposed … cont
Proposed location Berau District of East Kalimantan Province is proposed to be location of case study due to the following reasons:

The Nature Conservation is now proposing this district as a laboratory of REDD Demonstration Activity at a large scale. It is expected that the project could start at 2010 (now in the preparation & stakeholders consultation stage); Berau District used to be a place for Berau Forest Management Project (BFMP). Reliable data and information are available; Rahardja (2005) has worked on forestry based land use planning in the District. His work can be an important source or base for the inclusion of REDD DA for regional economic development.

5. My Proposed … cont
Other locations: Central Kalimantan (Ex. Mega Rice Project)

 

The area include ex. Mega rice (1 million ha of deforested peatland); Carry out by Kalimantan Forest Carbon Partnership (Indonesia – Australia); Project has been lasting for a year.

Thank you

Volume Perdagangan Karbon Dunia

Sumber: Capoor and Ambrosi, 2008

Berapa Besar Pasar Karbon
Volume Transaksi Karbon sampai Maret 2006 (US$ Juta)
Kyoto Market CDM, $8,000 Voluntary Market, $92

Mekanisme Pasar

Harga Karbon ($US/ ton CO2)

CDM NSW GGAS (Aus) Chicago Climate Kyoto Exchange (CCX) Market (non Voluntary market A/refforestation CDM), Voluntary - Avoided $24,000 deforestation

8 11.3 3.3 0.5 - 45 10 - 18

Sumber: Team IFCA (2007)

Berapa Harga CER

Sumber: World Bank, 2006

n
Stok Karbon

A/R CDM
Stok Karbon
si nsa pe kom Ada

n

REDD

Ada kompensasi Baseline

Baseline

Waktu

Waktu

lPembayaran

dilakukan setelah pohon tumbuh (perlu menunggu)

lPembayaran

bisa segera selama kita bisa menunjukkan penurunan stok karbon berkurang dibanding baseline

Sumberdaya Hutan dan Potensi Pasar Jasa LingkunganeKarbon I n d o n s ia
180
Luas (000 ha) 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0
Pr od uk od si uk si Te rb at Hu as ta n Ko Lu nv ar er Ka si wa sa n Hu ta n

40 juta

160 Forest Cover (M ha) 140 120 100
y = - 1 .3 7 5 3 x + 2 8 4 5 .7 R = 0 .9 8 8 5
2

Semak belukar, tanah terbuka, lahan pertania bercam pur sem ak

Hutan lahan kering dan m angrove terdegradas

80 1 9 4 51 9 5 51 9 6 51 9 7 51 9 8 51 9 9 52 0 0 5

Hu ta n

Laju deforestasi tinggi 1.3 juta ha per tahun dan hutan yang tersisa juga banyak yang terlantar. Melalui Mekanisme REDD, dengan menurunkan laju deforestasi 50% dari yang terjadi selama ini dapat menghasilkan pendapatan negara sebesar 3 sampai 10 milyar USD/tahun (asumsi harga karbon 5 dan 15 USD/tCO2dan stok karbon hutan sekitar 150 tC).

Hu ta n

Dari berbagai sumber

Pr

Ilustrasi besar emisi pada kondisi tanpa dan dengan adanya skema REDD
Potential kredit karbon ($)
350 Baseline 1

Emisi (juta ton CO2)

300 250

Baseline 2

REDD intervention 200

150

100 2007

2012

2017

2022

2027

Ilustrasi besar emisi pada kondisi tanpa dan dengan adanya skema REDD
350

Potential kredit karbon ($)

Stok Karbon (juta tC)

300 250

JADI BASELINE SEBAGAI PROYEKSI BESAR EMISI ATAU PERUBAHAN STOK KARBON AKIBAT DD DI MASA DATANG KALAU TIDAK ADA SKEMA REDD

REDD intervention 200 Baseline 2 150 Baseline 1

100 2007

2012

2017

2022

2027

Bagaimana menentukan Baseline?

OPSI 1: Dari data historis  Rata-rata selama periode tertentu di masa lalu  Mengikuti pola emisi masa lalu OPSI 2: Pendekatan modelling  Model spatial atau non spatial OPSI 3: Pendekatan lainnya  Kondisi stok karbon menjelang pelaksanaan REDD DENGAN A/R CDM IDENTIK dan lain-lain

OPSI-1: SEMAKIN BESAR EMISI HISTORIS, SEMAKIN BESAR PELUANG PENURUNAN EMISI YANG BISA DILAKUKAN

Reference level: deforestation rate
Base period

Crediting period - for how long? With REDD Reduced emissions Without REDD