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Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving

and
Decision Making Process
Strategic Decision Making &
Negotiation
MM5010

Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and


Decision Making Process
Problem
Analysis

Sort out
Priority
Concern

Situational Appraisal

Decision
Analysis

Potential
Problem
Analysis

Avoid
Jumping
to Cause

Balance
Benefits
and Risks

Avoid
Reactive
Action

Problem Solving & Decision Making


Model
Problem Analysis
2. Analyze the problems

Decision Analysis

Situation Appraisal
1. Identify concerns or issue

3. Generate and
evaluate alternative
solutions
4. Propose and
Implement Solution

Potential
Problem Analysis
5. Analyze the outcome
6. Improve the process

You know its a really bad


day when...
1.

It is necessary to get the dog off your leg now (High Priority).
The trend is getting worse because there are more and more
lacerations (High Priority) and the impact is that you can do
nothing else until the dog is off your leg (High Priority). The
process is to decide how to get the dog off your leg (DA).

2.

Repairing the car can wait (Low Priority) and it is not getting
worse (Low Priority), but if it is not repaired soon it could have
impact on your job by your not being able to visit clients
(Moderate Priority). The problem is to find out what is wrong
with the car (PA).

3.

4.

Putting out the fire receives high priority in all three


categories. The problem is to decide (DA) how to do it: Get
the hose or fire extinguisher; call the fire department; and/or
make sure everyone is out of the house.
While the tornado looks somewhat close in the picture, it may
be used to represent a tornado in the area, and thus may
only be a tornado warning. So this hazard could merit
Decision Analysis/Potential Problem Analysis

Kepner Tregoe
Decision Analysis
Purpose
Clarify Purpose
State Decision
What is the purpose of
this decision?
What is the appropriate
decision level?

Objectives
Determine weight, rank, or percentage
Screen
What results do What
What
Musts/Wants we want?
resources
restrictions
How does
What
should we
do we have?
this
objectiveeed to use or save?
alternative
be more
satisfy this
specific?
objective?
Eliminate
alternatives
that do not
meet all
MUST
objectives

Alternatives Score
Generate
Alternatives
What choices
do we have

If objective is Objective 1
mandatory,
Weight
measurable,
and realistic,
it is a MUST
For the other
objectives
what is
relative
importance of
each WANT

Alternative 1
Alternative 2

M/W

Alternative n

Objective 2
Weight

Objective n
Weight

Risks
Assess Risks
Identify Adverse
consequences
What are the implications
of being close to a MUST
limit?
Where might information
about this information be
invalid? What are the
implications?
What could go wrong,
short and long term if this
alternative were chosen?
Assess threats
P /S
How likely is each adverse
consequence? (P)
What impact will this
adverse consequence
have? (S)

Kepner Tregoe
Decision Analysis
Purpose
State Decision
Alternatives Score
Alternative 1
Alternative 2

Alternative n

Objective 1
Weight

Objectives
Objective 2
Objective 3
Weight
Weight

Objective n
Weight

Risks
Identify Adverse
consequences
Assess threats

P /S

Choosing Spray Gun


A new auto manufacturing plant is to be built and
you are asked to choose the electrostatic paint
spray gun to be used on the assembly line. The
industry standard gun is Paint Right. While
experience has shown that Paint Right performs
adequately, its manufacturer is located in Europe,
making service slow and difficult. In addition,
because Paint Right dominates the market, its price
is significantly inflated. Two American companies
are eager to enter the market with their products:
New Spray and Gun Ho.

Decision statement: Choose an electrostatic paint


spray gun. The paint guns available are Paint Right,
New Spray, and Gun Ho.

Potential Problem Analysis

Example: Potential Problem


Analysis
Ragin Cajun Chicken*

Wes Thompson is a manager of a Burgermeister restaurant, which specializes in fast food


hamburgers. He has just been notified by the corporation that a new chicken sandwich,
called Ragin Cajun Chicken, will be introduced into Burgermeister restaurants in two weeks.
This surprised Wes because he has never heard anything about the new sandwich from the
company or from advertisements. The memo says that plans for a national advertising
campaign have unfortunately been delayed until after the introduction of the sandwich.
The memo also says that next week, Wess restaurant will receive a shipment of 500 Ragin
Cajun Chickens. These are shipped frozen and have a shelf life of three months in the
freezer. The notification also stresses the importance of proper handling of the uncooked
chicken. In order to prevent cross-contamination by salmonella, the bacteria present in
some raw chicken, specially marked tongs will be used to handle only uncooked chicken.
With the shipment of the chicken, Wess restaurant will receive a new broiler to be used
exclusively for the new sandwich. It is important that the broiler operate at least at 380F to
ensure that the chicken will be fully cooked in the five-minute preparation time.
Wes thought that it was very important that the transition run smoothly when Ragin Cajun
Chicken would be added to the menu in two weeks. To prevent any problems, he noted
concerns in four areas and constructed the following PPA table.
____________________________________________________________________
*Developed in collaboration with Michael Szachta, University of Michigan, 1993.

Think of a Problem
One that you are currently experiencing in your job
or one that you have experienced in the past.
Write it down.

Thanks