Chapter

Probability

Psychology

Business

Weather forecast

Elementary Statistics
Larson Farber

Games

Medicine

Sports
1

Important Terms
Probability experiment:

Roll a die

An action through which counts,

measurements or responses are obtained
Sample space:

{1 2 3 4 5 6}

The set of all possible outcomes

Event:

{Die is even}={2 4 6}

A subset of the sample space.

Outcome:

{4}

The result of a single trial

Larson/Farb
er Ch. 3

Another Experiment
Probability Experiment:

An action through which counts,

measurements, or responses are obtained
Choose a car from production line

Sample Space: The set of all possible

outcomes

Event: A subset of the sample space.

Outcome: The result of a single trial

Larson/Farb
er Ch. 3

Types of Probability
Classical (equally probable outcomes)
Number of outcomes in event E
P(E)
Number of outcomes in sample space

Empirical
Frequency of event E
P(E)
Total Frequency
Probability blood pressure will decrease
after medication

Intuition

Larson/Farb
er Ch. 3

Probability the line will be busy 4

Tree Diagrams
1st
Two dice are rolled. roll
Describe the
sample space.
1
2
3

Star
t

4
5
6

Larson/Farb 36
er Ch. 3 outcomes

2nd1
2
roll3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6

1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1.6
2,
1
2,
2
2,
3
2,
3,
14
2,
3,
52
2.
3,
63
3,
4,
14
3,
4,
25
3.
4,
36
4,
5,1
45,2
4,
5,3
55,4
4.
5,5
65.6
6,1
6,2
6,3
6,4
6,5
6.6

Sample Spaces and Probabilities

Two dice are rolled and the sum is noted.
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6

2,1
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
2,6

3,1
3,2
3,3
3,4
3,5
3,6

4,1
4,2
4,3
4,4
4,5
4,6

5,1
5,2
5,3
5,4
5,5
5,6

6,1
6,2
6,3
6,4
6,5
6,6

Find the probability the sum is 4

Find the probability the sum is 11
Find the probability the sum is 4 or 11
Larson/Farb
er Ch. 3

Complementary Events
The complement of event E is event E.
E consists of all the events in the sample space
that are not in event E.

P(E) = 1 - P(E)

The days production consists of 12

cars, 5 of which are defective. If one car is
selected at random, find the probability it
is not defective.

Solution:
P(defective) = 5/12
P(not defective) = 1 - 5/12 = 7/12 = 0.583
Larson/Farb
er Ch. 3

Conditional Probability
The probability an event B will occur, given (on
the condition) that another event A has occurred.
We write this as P(B|A) and say probability
of B, given A.
Two cars are selected from a production line of
12 cars where 5 are defective. What is the
probability the 2nd car is defective, given the first
car was defective?

Given a defective car has been selected, the

conditional sample space: 4 defective out of 11.

So, P(B|A) = 4/11

Conditional Probability
Two dice are rolled, find the probability

the second die is a 4, given the first was a 4.

Original sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Given the first die was a 4, the conditional

sample space is : {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

The conditional probability, P(B|A) = 1/6

Independent Events
Two events A and B are independent if
the probability of the occurrence of
event B is not affected by the occurrence
(or non-occurrence) of event A.
A= Being female
B=Having type O blood

A= First child is a boy

B= Second child is a boy

Two events that are not independent are

dependent.
A= taking an aspirin each day
B= having a heart attack

A= being a female
B= being under 64 tall

10

Independent Events
If events A and B are independent,
then P(B|A) = P(B)
Conditional
Probability

Probability

12 cars are on a production line where 5 are

defective and 2 cars are selected at random.
A= first car is defective
B= second car is defective.

The probability of getting a defective car for the

second car depends on whether the first was
defective. The events are dependent.
Two dice are rolled. A= first is a 4 and B =
second is a 4 P(B)= 1/6 and P(B|A) = 1/6. The events
are independent.

11

Contingency Table
The following is the result of a market research poll. A sample
of adults was asked if they liked a new juice.
Omaha

Seattle

Miami

Total

Yes

100

150

150

400

No

125

130

95

350

75

170

250

300

450

250

1000

Undecided
Total

1. P(Yes)

5. P(Not Seattle)

2. P(Seattle)

6. P(Seattle, given yes)

3. P(Miami)

7. P(Yes, given Seattle)

4. P(No, given Miami) 8. P(Miami, given Omaha)

Are events A= Seattle and B= Yes independent events?
Are events A = Miami and B = Omaha independent events?12

Solutions
Omaha

Seattle

Miami

Total

Yes

100

150

150

400

No

125

130

95

350

75

170

250

300

450

250

1000

Undecided
Total

1. P(Yes)

= 400 / 1000 = 0.4

2. P(Seattle)

= 450 / 1000 = 0.45

3. P(Miami)

=250 / 1000 = 0.25

4. P(No, given Miami)

Answers: 1) 0.4

2) 0.45

= 95 / 250 = 0.38
3) 0.25

4) 0.38

13

Solutions
Omaha

Seattle

Miami

Total

Yes

100

150

150

400

No

125

130

95

350

75

170

250

300

450

250

1000

Undecided
Total

5. P(Not Seattle)

= 1 - 450 / 1000 = 0.55

6. P(Seattle, given yes)

= 150 / 400 = 0.375

7. P(Yes, given Seattle)

=150 / 450 = 0.333

8. P(Miami, given Omaha) = 0 / 250 = 0

Answers: 5) 0.55

6) 0.375 7) 0.333

8) 0

14

Solutions
Omaha

Seattle

Miami

Total

Yes

100

150

150

400

No

125

130

95

350

75

170

250

300

450

250

1000

Undecided
Total

Are events A= Seattle and B= Yes independent events?

If events are independent P(B|A) = P(B)

P(Yes|Seattle) = 150/450 = 0.333

P(Yes) = 0.4

Since 0.333 0.4 the events are NOT independent.

Are events A = Miami and B = Omaha independent events?

If events are independent P(B|A) = P(B)

P(Omaha|Miami) = 0

P(Omaha) = 0.3

Since 0 0.3 the events are NOT independent. 15

Multiplication Rule
To find the probability that two events, A and B
will occur in sequence, multiply the probability
A occurs by the conditional probability B
occurs, given A has occurred.

P( A and B) = P(A) P(B|A)

Two cars are selected from a production line of 12
where 5 are defective. Find the probability both cars
are defective.

A = first car is defective

defective.
B = second car is

P(A) = 5/12

P(B|A) = 4/11

P(A and B) = 5/12 4/11 = 5/33= 0.121

16

Multiplication Rule
Two dice are rolled. Find the probability both are 4s.

A= first die is a 4 and B= second die is a 4.

P(A) = 1/6

P(B|A) = 1/6

P(A and B) = 1/6 1/6 = 1/36 = 0.028

When two events A and B are

independent, then
P (A and B) = P(A) P(B)
Note for independent events P(B) and P(B|A) are the same.

Larson/Farb
er Ch. 3

17

Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events, A and B are mutually
exclusive, if they cannot occur in the
same trial.
A= A person is under 25
B= A person is running for the U.S. Senate
A = A person was born in Philadelphia
B = A person was born in Houston

Mutually exclusive
P(A and B) = 0

When event A occurs it excludes event B in the same trial.18

Non-Mutually Exclusive Events

If two events can occur in the same trial,
they are non-mutually exclusive.
A = A person is under 25
B = A person is a lawyer
A = A person was born in Philadelphia
B = A person watches 20/20 on TV.
A and B
Non-mutually exclusive
P(A and B) 0

19

The Addition Rule

The probability that one or the other of two events will
occur is P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

A card is drawn from a deck.

Find the probability it is a king or it is red.
A= the card is a king
B = the card is red.
P(A) = 4/52 and P(B) = 26/52 but P( A and B) = 2/52
P(A or B) = 4/52 + 26/52 - 2/52 = 28/52 = 0.538

A card is drawn from a deck.

Find the probability the card is a king or a 10.
A = the card is a king and B = the card is a 10.
P(A) = 4/52 and P(B) = 4/52 and P( A and B) = 0/52
P(A or B) = 4/52 + 4/52 - 0/52 = 8/52 = 0.054
When events are mutually exclusive, P(A or B) = P(A) +P(B)

Larson/Farb
er Ch. 3

20

Contingency Table
The following is the result of a market
research poll for sample of adults were
asked if they liked a new juice.

Omaha Seattle Miami Total

Yes

100

150

150

400

No

125

130

95

350

Undeci 75
ded
Total 300

170

250

450

250

1000

1. P(Miami and Yes)

4. P(Miami or Yes)

2. P(Omaha and No)

5. P(Omaha or No)

3. P(Miami and Seattle)

6. P(Miami or
Seattle)

Are events Miami and No mutually exclusive?

Are events Miami and Seattle mutually exclusive?

21

Contingency Table
The following is the result of a market
research poll for sample of adults were
asked if they liked a new juice.
Omaha Seattle Miami Total
Yes

100

150

150

400

No

125

130

95

350

Undeci 75
ded
Total 300

170

250

450

250

1000

1. P(Miami and Yes)

= 250/1000 * 150/250 = 150/1000

=0.15

2. P(Omaha and No)

= 300/1000 * 125/300 = 125/1000

=0.125

3. P(Miami and Seattle)= 0

Are events Miami and Yes mutually exclusive?
No since P(Miami and Yes) 0.

Are events Miami and Seattle mutually exclusive?

Ans. 1) 0.15 2) 0.125 3) 0 Yes since P(Miami and No) = 0.

22

Contingency Table
The following is the result of a market
research poll for sample of adults were
asked if they liked a new juice.
Omaha Seattle

Miami

Total

Yes

100

150

150

400

No

125

130

95

350

Undeci 75
ded
Total
300

170

250

450

250

1000

4. P(Miami or Yes)
5. P(Omaha or No)
6. P(Miami or
Seattle)

250/100 + 400/1000 - 150/1000

=500/1000 = 0.5
300/1000 + 350/1000 - 125/1000
=425/1000 = 0.425
250/1000 + 450/1000 - 0/1000
=700/1000 = 0.7

23
Answers: 4) 0.5 5) 0.425 6) 0.7

Summary
For complementary events
P(E') = 1 - P(E)
Subtract the probability of the event from one.
The probability both of two events occur

P(A and B) = P(A) *P(B|A)

Multiply the probability of the first event
times the conditional probability the second
event occurs, given the first occurred.
Probability at least one of two events occur

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

Add the two simple probabilities but dont
forget to subtract the probability of both
occurring. This prevents double counting.
Larson/Farb
er Ch. 3

24

Fundamental Counting Principle

If one event can occur m ways and a second event can
occur n ways, the number of ways the two events can
occur in sequence is m*n. This rule can be extended
for any number of events occurring in a sequence.
If a meal consists of 2 choices of soup, 3 main dishes
and 2 desserts, how many different meals can be selected?
Dessert 1
Soup
Main
2
3
4
5
6
7
Start
8
9
10
11
12

2
Larson/Farb
er Ch. 3

= 12

meals
25