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COUNTING TECHNIQUES

PROBABILITY

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COUNTING TECHNI

QUES

Tree diagram

Multiplication Rule

Permutation

Combination

TREE DIAGRAM

a device used to list all p

ossibilities of a sequenc

e of events in a systemat

ic way.

Example:

1. Suppose a sales rep can travel

from New York to Pittsburgh by p

lane, train, or bus, and from Pitts

burgh to Cincinnati by bus, boat,

or automobile. List all possible w

ays he can travel from New York

to Cincinnati.

Solution:

show the possible ways.

First the salesman can

travel from New York

to Pittsburgh by

three methods.

from Pittsburgh to Cincinnati by

bus, boat, or automobile.

up with the first branch in three

ways

Finally, all outcomes can

be listed by starting at

New York and following

the

branches

to

Cincinnati, as shown at

the right end of the tree.

There are nine ways.

rolled. Find all possible outcomes

of this sequence of events.

Solution:

Since the coin can land either

heads up or tails up, and since

the die can land with any one of

six numbers shown face up.

Multiplication Rule

In a sequence of n events in which

the first one has k1 possibilities and

the second event has k2 and the third

has k3, and so forth, the total number

of possibilities of the sequence will be

k1 k2 k3 kn

Note:

And in this case means to multiply

Examples:

1. A paint manufacturer wishes

to manufacture several different

paints. The categories include:

* Color

Red, blue,

white, black,

green, brown, yellow

* Type

Latex, oil

* Texture

Flat, semigloss,

high gloss

How

many

different

kinds of paint can be

made if a person can

select one color, one type,

one texture, and one use?

Solution:

A person can choose one color and one

type and one texture and one use. Since

there are seven color choices, two type

choices, three texture choices, and two

use choices, the total number of possible

different paint is

A, B, AB, and O. Blood can

also be Rh+ and Rh-. Finally,

a blood donor can be

classified as either male or

female. How many different

ways can a donor have his or

her blood labeled?

Solution:

Since there are four possibilities for

blood type, two possibilities for Rh

factor, and two possibilities for

gender of the donor, there are 4 2

2 or 16, different classification

categories as shown:

of different possibilities of a

sequence of events, one must

know whether repetitions are

permissible.

Exercises:

1. Find all possible outcomes for the

genders of the children in a family

that has three children.

2. If a baseball manager has five

pitchers and two catchers, how

many different possible pitchercatcher combinations can he field?

3. How many different three-digit

identification tags can be made if the

digits can be used more than once?

If the first digit must be a 5 and

to determine the total number of

possibilities of a sequence of

events are the permutation rule

and combination rule.

The factorial notation uses the

exclamation point.

5! Means 54321

9! = 987654321

In order to use the formula in the

permutation and combination rules, a

special definition of 0! is needed. 0! = 1

Factorial Formulas

For any counting n

n! = n(n-1) (n-2)1

0! = 1

PERMUTATION

an arrangement of

n object in a

specific order.

Example:

1. Suppose a business owner

has a choice of five locations in

which to establish her business.

She decides to rank each

location according to certain

criteria, such as price of the

store and parking facilities. How

many different ways can she

rank the five locations?

Solution:

There are

5! = 54321

= 120

Different possible rankings.

The reason is that she has five

choices for the first location,

four choices for the second

location, three choices for the

third location, etc.

owner in example no. 1

wishes to rank only the top

three of the five locations.

How many ways can she

rank them?

Solution:

Using the multiplication rule, she can

select any one of the five for first choice,

then any one of the remaining four

locations for her second choice, and

finally, any one of the remaining three

locations for her third choice, as shown.

Permutation Rule 1

The number of permutations

of n distinct objects is n!.

Example:

In how many ways can a

photographer take pictures

of five ladies in a row?

Solution:

5! = 5 4 3 2 1 = 120

Permutation Rule 2

The arrangement of n objects in a

specific order using r objects at a

time is called a permutation of n

objects taking r objects at a time. It

is written as nPr, and the formula is

P =

n r

Example 1:

five locations were taken and

then arranged in order; hence,

5P5= = = = 120

(Recall 0! = 1)

In Example 2, three locations

were selected from five

locations, so n=5 and r=3;

hence

5P3 = = = = 60

permutations.

P means or = = 360

6 4

solved by the multiplication rule,

they can now be solved by

permutation rule.

basketball team schedule 3

exhibition games with 3 teams

if they are all available on any

of 5 possible dates?

Solution:

5P3 = = (5) (4) (3) = 60

Example:

1. Two lottery tickets are drawn

from 20 for first and second

prizes. Find the number of

sample points in the space S.

Solution:

The total number of sample

points is

20P2 = = (20) (19) = 380

arranging objects in a circle are

called circular permutations. Two

circular permutations are not

considered

different,

unless

corresponding objects in the two

arrangements are preceded or

followed by a different object as

we proceed in a clockwise direction.

playing bridge, we do not have

a new permutation if they all

move

one

position

in

a

clockwise

direction.

By

considering 1 person in a fixed

position and arranging the

other 3 in 3! Ways, we find that

there

are

6

distinct

arrangements for the bridge

Permutation Rule 3

The number of permutations of n

distinct objects arranged in a circle

is (n-1)!.

Example:

In how many ways can eight

persons be seated in a round

table?

Solution:

Permutation Rule 4

The number of distinct permutations

of n things of which n1 are one kind,

n2 of a second kind, , nk of a kth

kind is

Example:

How many different ways can 3

red, 4 yellow, and 2 blue bulbs

be arranged in a string of

Christmas tree light with 9

sockets?

Solution:

The total number of distinct

arrangements is,

= 1260

Permutation Rule 5

The number of ways of partitioning

a set of n objects into r cells with

n1 elements in the first cell, n2

elements in the second, and so on,

is

=

Where n1 + n2 + + nr = n.

Example:

How many ways can 7 people

be assigned to 1 triple and 2

double rooms?

Solution:

The total number of possible

partitions would be

= = 210

permutation and combination

is that in combination, the

order of arrangement of the

objects is not important: by

contrast, order is important

in a permutation.

In

several

problems

we

are

interested in the number of ways of

selecting r objects from n without

regard to order. These selections are

called combinations. A combination

creates a partition with 2 cells, one cell

containing the r objects selected and

the other cell containing the n-r

objects that are left.

COMBINATION

a

selection

of

distinct

objects

without regard to

order.

Example:

1. Given the letters A, B, C, and

D, list the permutations and

combinations for selecting two

letters.

Solution:

The listing follow:

Permutations

AB BA

AC BC

AD BD

CA

CB

CD

DA

DB

DC

Combinati

ons

AB

BC

AC

BD

AD

CD

different

from

BA.

But

in

combinations, AB is the same as BA,

so only AB is listed. (Alternatively BA

could be listed instead of AB.)

The elements of a combination are

usually listed alphabetically.

Combinations are used when the order

or arrangement is not important, as

in the selecting process.

Combination Rule

The number of combinations of r

objects selected from n objects

is denoted by nCr and is given by

the formula

nCr =

The

number

of

such

combinations, denoted by , is

usually shortened to , since the

number of elements in the

second cell must be n r.

Example:

2. How many combinations of

four objects are there taken

two at a time?

Solution:

Since this is a combination

problem, the answer is

4C2 = = = = 6

r! divides out the duplicates from the

number of permutations, as shown in

Example 2. For each two letters, there

are two permutations but only one

combination. Hence, dividing the

number of permutations by r!

eliminates the duplicates. This result

can be verified for other values of n

and r. Note: nCn = 1.

Example:

From 4 Republicans and 3

Democrats find the number of

committees of 3 that can be

formed with 2 Republicans

and 1Democrat.

Solution:

The number of ways of

selecting 2, Republicans from 4

is

nCr = = 6.

The number of ways of

selecting 1 Democrat from 3 is

nCr = = 3.

So 4C2 3C1 = 6 3 = 18.

gamble, we bet money. Some of us do not just bet money.

We bet our life. We indulge in excessive drinking of

alcoholic drinks. We smoke excessively or even we tend to

drive exceeding the normal speed. We dont care about

the risks when we are involved in these activities because

we dont understand the concept of probability. On the

other hand, some of us may fear activities that involve

little risk to health or life because these activities have

been sensationalized by press and the media.

So at this point, we will learn the concept of

probability. Its meaning and how it is computed.

The theory of probability grew out of the

study

of various games of chance using coins, dice and cards.

So these devices will be used as

examples.

PROBABILITY

as a general concept

can be defined as

the chance of an

event occurring.

rolling a die, or drawing a card from a

deck

are

called

probability

experiments.

* A probability experiment is a chance

process that leads to well-defined

results called outcomes.

* An outcome is the result of a single

trial of a probability experiment.

rolling a die once, or the like. When a

coin is tossed, there are two possible

outcomes: head or tail. In the roll of a

single die, there are six possible

outcomes: 1,2,3,4,5, or 6. In any

experiment, the set of all possible

outcomes is called the sample space.

* A sample space is the set of all

possible outcomes of a probability

experiment.

Experiment

Toss one coin

Roll a die

Answer a true-false

question

Toss two coins

Sample Space

Head, tail

1,2,3,4,5,6

True, false

Head-head, tail-tail, head-tail,

tail-head

It

is important to realize that when two

possible outcomes, as shown in the

fourth experiment above. Both coins

could fall heads up. Both coins could fall

tails up. Coin 1 could fall heads up

and

coin 2 tails up.

rolling two dice.

Solution:

Since each die can land in six

different ways, and two dice are

rolled, the sample space can be

represented by a rectangular

array. The sample space is

the

list of pairs of numbers in the

chart

Die 1

1

2

3

4

5

6

1

(1,1)

(2,1)

(3,1)

(4,1)

(5,1)

(6,1)

2

(1,2)

(2,2)

(3,2)

(4,2)

(5,2)

(6,2)

Die 2

3

4

(1,3) (1,4)

(2,3) (2,4)

(3,3) (3,4)

(4,3) (4,4)

(5,3) (5,4)

(6,3) (6,4)

5

(1,5)

(2,5)

(3,5)

(4,5)

(5,5)

(6,5)

6

(1,6)

(2,6)

(3,6)

(4,6)

(5,6)

(6,6)

ordinary deck of cards.

an

Solution:

Since there are four suits

(hearts, clubs, diamonds, and

spades) and 13 cards for each

suit (ace through king), there are

52 outcomes in the sample

space.

probability experiment.

An event can be one outcome or more than

one outcome. For example, if a die is rolled and

a 6 shows, this result is called an outcome, since

it is a result of a single trial. An event with one

outcome is called a simple event. The event of

getting an odd number when a die is rolled is

called a compound event, since it consists of

three outcomes or three simple events. In

general, a compound event consists of two

or more outcomes or simple events.

There are

THREE BASIC TYPES OF

PROBABILITY:

1. Classical probability

2. Empirical or relative frequency

probability

3. Subjective probability

CLASSICAL PROBABILITY

numerical probability that an event will

happen. One does not actually have to

perform the experiment to determine that

probability. Classical probability is so

named because it was the first type of

probability

studied

formally

by

mathematicians in the 17th and 18th

centuries.

outcomes in the sample space are equally

likely to occur.

the same probability of occurring

Formula for Classical Probability

The probability of any event E is

P(E) =

classical probability, and it uses

the sample space S.

Probabilities should be expressed as

reduced fractions or rounded to two

or three decimal places. When the

probability of an event is an

extremely small decimal, it is

permissible to round the decimal to

the first nonzero digit after the

point.

Example:

1. For a card drawn from an

ordinary deck, find the

probability of getting a king.

Solution:

Since there are 52 cards in a

deck and there are 4 kings,

P(king) = = .

find the probability that all

children are girls.

Solution:

The sample space for the gender

of children for a family that has

three children is BBB, GBB, BBG,

BGB, GGG, GGB, GBG, and BGG.

Since there is one way in

eight

possibilities for all three

children to be girls,

Find these probabilities.

a. Of getting a jack.

b. Of getting the 6 of clubs.

c. Of getting a 3 or a diamond.

Solution:

a. There are 4 jacks and 52 possible

outcomes. Hence,

P(jack) = =

b. Since there is only one 6 of clubs, the

probability of getting a 6 of clubs is

P(6 of clubs) =

diamonds, but the 3 of diamonds is

counted twice in this listing. Hence,

there are 16 possibilities of drawing

a 3 or a diamond, so

P(3 of diamond) = =

These rules are helpful in solving

probability problems, in understanding the

nature of probability, and in deciding

if your answers to the problems

are correct.

Probability Rule 1

The probability of any event E is a number (either

a fraction or decimal) between and including 0

and 1. This is denoted by 0 < P(E) < 1

Rule 1 states that probabilities cannot be negative

or greater than one.

Probability Rule 2

If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains

no members in the sample space), the probability

is zero.

Example:

When a single die is rolled, find the probability of

getting a 9

Solution:

Since the sample space is 1,2,3,4,5, and 6, it is

Probability Rule 3

If an event E is certain, then the probability of

E=1

In other words, if P(E) = 1, then the event E is

certain to occur.

Example:

When a single die is rolled, what is the

probability of getting a number less than 7?

Solution:

Since all outcomes 1,2,3,4,5, and 6, are less

than 7, the probability is

P(number less than 7) = = 1

The event of getting a number less than 7 is

certain.

Probability Rule 4

The sum of the probabilities of the

outcomes in the sample space is 1.

Example:

In the roll of a fair die, each outcome in

the sample space has a probability of

1/6. Hence, the sum of the probabilities

of the outcomes is as shown.

Outcom

e

Probabi

lity

Sum

= =1

Another

important

concept

in

probability

theory

is

that

of

complementary events. When a die is

rolled, for instance, the sample space

consists of the outcomes 1,2,3,4,5, and

6. The event E of getting odd numbers

consists of the outcomes 1,3, and 5. The

event of not getting an odd number is

called the complement of event E, and it

consists of the outcomes 2,4, and 6.

outcomes in the sample space that are not

included in the outcomes of event E. The

complement of E is denoted by .

Example:

Find the complement of each event.

a. Rolling a die and getting a 4.

b. Selecting a letter of the alphabet and

getting a vowel.

c. Selecting a month and getting a month

that begins with a J.

d. Selecting a day of the week and

getting a weekday.

Solution:

a. Getting a 1,2,3,5, and 6

b. Getting a consonant

c. Getting February, March,

April, May, August,

September, October,

November, and December

d. Getting a Saturday and

Sunday

outcomes of the complement make

up the entire sample space. For two

coins are tossed, the sample space

is HH, HT, TH and TT. The

complement of getting all heads is

not

getting

all

tails,

the

complement of the event all heads

is the event getting at least one

tail.

the entire sample space, it follows that the sum

of the probability of the event and the

probability of its complement will equal to 1.

That is, P(E) + P() = 1. In the previous example,

let

E = all heads, or HH, and let = at least one

tail, or HT, TH, TT. Then P(E) = and P() = ;

hence, P(E) + P() = + = 1.

The rule for complementary events can be

stated algebraically in three ways.

P() = 1 P(E) or P(E) = 1 P() or P(E) + P() = 1

probability of an event or the probability of

its complement is known, then the other can

be found by subtracting the probability from

1. This rule is important in probability theory

because at times the best solution to a

problem is to find the probability of the

complement of an event and then subtract

from 1 to get the probability of

the event itself.

Example:

If the probability that a person lives

in an industrialized country of the

world is , find the probability that a

person does not live in an

industrialized country.

Solution:

P (not living in an industrialized

country)

= 1 P (living in an industrialized

probability is that classical probability assumes

that certain outcomes are equally likely while

empirical probability relies on actual experience to

determine the likelihood of outcomes. In empirical

probability, one might actually roll a given die 6000

times and observe the various frequencies and use

these frequencies to determine the probability of

an outcome. Suppose, for example, that a

researcher asked 25 people if they liked the taste

of a new soft drink. The responses were classified

as yes no or undecided. The results were

categorized in

a frequency distribution, as

shown.

Freque

Response

ncy

Yes

15

No

8

Undecided

2

Total

25

for various categories. For example,

the probability of selecting a person

who liked the taste is , or , since 15

out of 25 people in the survey

answered yes.

probability of an event being in a given

class is

P(E) = =

This probability is called

EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY

and is based on observation

Example:

1. In the soft-drink survey just described, find

the probability that a person responded no.

Solution:

P(E) = =

2. In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O

blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood,

and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a frequency

distribution and find the following probabilities:

a. A person has type O blood.

b. A person has type A or type B blood.

c. A person has neither type A nor type O

blood.

d. A person does not have type AB blood.

Solution:

Type

Frequen

cy

A

22

B

5

AB

2

O

21

Total

50

a. P (O) = =

b. P (A or B) = + =

c. P (neither A nor O) = + =

d. P(not AB) = 1 - = =

SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY

- uses a probability value based on an educated guess

or estimate, employing opinions and inexact

information.

In subjective probability, a person or group makes

an educated guess at the chance that an event will

occur. This guess is based on the persons experience

and evaluation of a solution. For example, a

sportswriter may say that there is a 70% probability

that the ADMU Blue Eagle will win the UAAP next

year. A physician might say that on the basis of her

diagnosis, there is 30% chance that the patient will

need an operation. A seismologist might

say there

is an 80% probability that an earthquake will occur

in a certain area.

cannot occur at the same time.

In another situation, the events of getting

a 4 and getting a 6 when a single card is

drawn from a deck are mutually exclusive

events, since a single card cannot be both a 4

and a 6. On the other hand, the events of

getting a 4 and getting a heart on a single

draw are not mutually exclusive, since one can

select the 4 of hearts when drawing a single

card from an ordinary deck.

Example:

1. Determine which events are mutually

exclusive and which are not when a single die is

rolled.

a) Getting an odd number and getting an even

number.

b) Getting a 3 and getting an odd number.

c) Getting an odd number and getting a number

less than 4.

d) Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a

number less than 4.

Solution:

e) The events are mutually exclusive, since the

first event can be 1,3, or 5, and the second

event can be 2,4, or 6.

event can be 1,3, or 5, and the second can be 1,2, or 3.

Hence, 1 and 3 are contained in both events.

d) The events are mutually exclusive, since the first

event can be 5 or 6, and the second event can be 1,2,

or 3.

2. Determine which events are mutually exclusive and

which are not when a single card is drawn from a deck.

a) Getting a 7 and getting a jack.

b) Getting a club and getting a king.

c) Getting a face card and getting an ace.

d) Getting a face card and getting a spade.

Solution:

Only the events in parts a and c are mutually

exclusive.

mutually exclusive.

Addition Rule 1

exclusive, the probability that A or B will

occur is

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example:

1. A restaurant has 3 pieces of apple pie, 5

pieces of cherry pie, and 4 pieces of pumpkin

pie in its dessert case. If a customer selects

a piece of pie for dessert, find the

probability that it will be either cherry or

Solution:

Since there is a total 12 pieces of pie,

P(cherry or pumpkin) = P(cherry) +

P(pumpkin)

The events are mutually exclusive.

2. At a political rally, there are 20

Republicans, 13 Democrats, and 6

Independents. If a person is selected at

random, find the probability that he or she

is either a Democrat or Independent.

Solution:

P(Democrat or Independent) =

Addition Rule 2

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)

Note: This rule can be also be used when the

events are mutually exclusive, since P(A and B)

will always equal 0. However, it is important to

make a distinction between the two situations.

Example:

1. In a hospital unit there are eight nurses

and five physicians. Seven nurses and

three physicians are females. If a

staff

person is selected, find the probability that

the

subject is a nurse or a male.

Solution:

Staf

Nurses

Physicia

ns

Total

Females

7

Males

1

Total

8

10

13

The probability is

P(nurse or male) = P(nurse) + P(male) P(male

nurse) = + - =

Exercises:

1.Determine whether the following events are

mutually exclusive.

a.Roll a die: Get an even number, and get a

number less than 3.

b.Roll a die: Get a prime number, and get an

odd number.

c.Roll a die: Get a number greater than 3,

and get a number less than 3.

d.Select a student in your class: The student

has blond hair, and the student has blue

eyes.

e.Select a student in your college: The

student is a sophomore, and the student is

a business major.

person driving while intoxicated is 0.32,

the probability of a person having a

driving accident is 0.09, and the

probability of a person having a driving

accident while intoxicated is 0.06. What is

the probability of a person driving while

intoxicated or having a driving accident?

Solution:

P(intoxicated or accident) = P(intoxicated)

+ P(accident) P(intoxicated and

accident)

= 0.32 + 0.09 0.06 =

for its annual sale. Find the probability that it

will be April or May. Assume that all months

have an equal probability of being selected.

4. At a convention there are seven

mathematics instructors, five computer

science instructors, three statistics

instructors, and four science instructors. If an

instructor is selected, find the probability of

getting a science instructor or a math

instructor.

5. An automobile dealer has 10 Fords, 7

Ferrari, and 5 Benz on his used-car lot. If a

person purchases a used car, find the

professors, four mathematics professors, two science

professors, three psychology professors, and three

history professors. If a professor is selected at random,

find the probability that the professor is the following:

a. An English or psychology professor

b. A mathematics or science professor

c. A history, science, or mathematics professor

d. An English, mathematics, or history professor

7. The probability of a California teenager owning a

surfboard is 0.43, of owning a skateboard is 0.38, and

of owning both is 0.28. If a California teenager is

selected at random, find the probability that he or she

owns a surfboard or skateboard.

8. On any given day, the probability of a tourist visiting

Indian Caverns is 0.80 and of visiting the Safari Zoo is

0.55. The probability of visiting both places on the

the probability of selecting the following:

a.A 4 or a diamond

b.A club or a diamond

c.A jack or a black card

10. In a statistics class there are 18 juniors

and 10 seniors: 6 of the senior are females,

and 12 of the juniors are males. If a student

is selected at random, find the probability

of selecting the following:

d.A junior or a female

e.A senior or a female

f. A junior or a senior

from three companies: A, B, and C. The

most recent purchases

shown here

Company are

Company

Company

Product

Dresses

24

18

12

Blouses

13

36

15

following probabilities.

a.It was purchased from company A or

is a dress.

b.It was purchased from company B or

company C

occurs does not affect the probability of B occurring.

Multiplication Rule 1

When two events are independent, the

probability of both occurring is

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)

Example:

1. A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find

the probability of getting a head on the

coin and a 4 on the die.

Solution:

P(head and 4) = P(head) * P(4) = * =

2.

second card is drawn. Find the probability of getting a

queen and then ace.

Solution:

P(queen and ace) = P(queen) * P(ace) = * = =

five white balls. A ball is selected and its color noted.

Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its

color noted. Find the probability of each of the following.

a. Selecting two blue balls

b. Selecting a blue ball and then white ball

c. Selecting a red ball and then a blue ball

Solution:

a. P(blue and blue) = P(blue) * P(blue) = * = =

b. P(blue and white) = P(blue) * P(white) = * = =

c. P(red and blue) = P(red) * P(blue) = * = =

color blindness that prevents them from

distinguishing between red and green. If 3

men are selected at random, find the

probability that all of them will have this

type of red-green color blindness.

Solution:

P(C and C and C) = P(C) * P(C) * P(C)

= (0.09)(0.09)(0.09)

= 0.000729

of the first event affects the

outcome or occurrence of the

second event in such a way that

the probability is changed, the

events are said to be dependent.

Multiplication Rule 2

When two events are dependent, the

probability of both occurring is,

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B/A)

Example:

1.In a shipment of 25 microwave ovens, 2 are

defective. If two ovens are randomly selected

and tested, find the probability that both are

defective if the first one is not replaced after it

has been tested.

Solution:

P(D1 and D2) = P(D1) * P(D2/D1) = * = =

had homeowners insurance with the

company. Of these clients, 27% also had

automobile insurance with the company.

If a resident is selected at random, find

the probability that the resident has both

homeowners and automobile insurance

with the World Wide Insurance Company.

Solution:

P(H and A) = P(H) * P(A/H) = (0.53)(0.27) =

0.1431

ball. Box 2 contains three blue balls and one

red ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls heads up,

box 1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls

tails up, box 2 is selected and a ball is drawn.

Find the probability of selecting a red ball.

Solution:

With the use of tree diagram, the sample

space can be determined. First, assign

probabilities to each branch. Next, using the

multiplication rule, multiply the possibilities

for each branch.

P(B2

)

a red ball can be obtained from box

1 or box 2.

P(red) = + = + =

Note:

The sum of all probabilities will

always be equal to 1.

Conditional Probability

relationship to an event A was defined as the

probability that event B occurs after event A has

already occurred.

The conditional probability of an event can be

found by dividing both sides of the equation for

multiplication rule 2 by P(A), as shown:

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B/A)

=

= P(B/A)

B occurs given that the first event A has

occurred can be found by dividing the

probability that both events occurred by

the probability that the first event has

occurred. The formula is

P(B/A) =

Example:

person selects two chips without replacement. If the

probability of selecting a black chip and white chip is ,

and the probability of selecting a black chip on the

first draw is , find the probability of selecting the white

chip on the second draw, given that the first chip

selected was a black chip.

Solution:

Let

B = selecting a black chip

chip

Then

P(W/B) = =

= = =

W = selecting a white

Other Examples

Examp[es:

defective. If four are sold at random, find the following

probabilities.

a. Exactly two are defective.

b. None is defective.

c. All are defective.

d. At least one is defective.

Solution:

There are 24C4 ways to sell four transistors, so the

denominator in each case will be 10,626.

a. Two defective transistors can be selected as 4C2 and

two nondefective ones as 20C2

P(exactly 2 defectives) = = =

20C4. Hence,

P(no defective) = = =

from four is 4C4, or 1. Hence,

P(all defectives) = =

transistor, find the probability that there are no

defective transistors, and then subtract that

probability from 1

P(at least 1 defective) = 1 P(no defectives)

=1- =1- =

experiment that satisfies the following four

requirements:

1. Each trial can have only two outcomes or

outcomes that can be reduced to two

outcomes. These outcomes can be

considered as either success or failure.

2.There must be a fixed number of trials.

3.The outcomes of each trial must be

independent of each other.

4. The probability of success must remain

the same for each trial.

to a special probability distribution called the

binomial distribution.

* The outcomes of a binomial experiment and

the corresponding probabilities of these

outcomes are called a binomial distribution.

* In binomial experiments, the outcomes are

usually classified as successes or failures. For

example, the correct answer to a multiplechoice item can be classified as a success, but

any of the other choices would be incorrect

and hence classified as a failure.

P(S) The symbol for the probability of

success

P(F) The symbol for the probability of

failure

p the numerical probability of success

q The numerical probability of failure

P(S) = p and P(F) = 1 p = q

n The number of trials

X The number of successes

Note that 0 < X < n.

The

computed with the ff. formula.

exactly X successes in n trials is.

P(X) = px qn-X

Example:

1. A coin is tossed three times. Find the

probability of getting exactly two heads.

Solution:

HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT,

TTT

This answer is or 0.375.

the standpoint of a binomial experiment, one

can show that it meets the four

experiments.

1. There are only two outcomes for each

trial, heads or tails.

2. There is a fixed number of trials (three).

3. The outcomes are independent of each

other (the outcome of one toss in no way

affects the outcome of another toss).

4. The probability of a success (heads)

is in each case.

the formula gives

P(2 heads) = ( ( = = 0.375

Which is the same answer obtained by using the

sample space.

The same example can be used to explain the

formula. First, note that there are three ways to get

exactly two heads and one tail from a possible eight

ways. They are HHT, HTH, and THH. In this case,

then, the number of ways of obtaining two heads from

three coin tosses is 3C2, or 3. In general, the number

of ways to get X successes from n trials without

regard to order is

nCX =

multiple-choice questions, find the

probability that the student gets exactly

three correct. Each question has five

possible choices.

Solution:

In this case n = 5, X = 3, and p = , since

there is one chance in five of guessing a

correct answer. Then,

P(3) = ( = 0.05

binomial, two outcomes are required for each

trial. But if each trial in an experiment has more

than two outcomes, a distribution called the

multinomial distribution must be used. For

example, a survey might require the responses

of approve, disapprove, or no opinion. In

another situation a person may have a choice of

one of five activities for Friday night, such as a

movie, dinner, baseball game, play, or party.

Since these situations have more than two

possible outcomes for each trial, the binomial

distribution cannot be used to

compute probabilities.

be used for such situations if the

probabilities for each trial remain

constant and the outcomes are

independent for a fixed number of

trials. The events must also be

mutually exclusive.

Distribution

have corresponding probabilities p1, p2, p3, pk

of occurring, and X1 is the number of times E1 will

occur, X2 is the number of times E2 will occur X3

is the number of times E3 will occur, etc., then

the probability that X will occur is

P(X) = P1X1 P2X2 .. PkXk

Where X1 + X2 + X3 + + Xk = n,

and P1 + P2 + P3 + Pk = 1

Example:

1. In a large city, 50% of the people

choose a movie, 30% choose dinner and a

play, and 20% choose shopping as a

leisure activity. If a sample of five people

is randomly selected, find the probability

that three are planning to go to a movie,

Solution:

one to a play, one to a shopping mall.

n = 5, X = 3, X = 1, X = 1, P = 0.50, P = 0.30,

1

distribution can be used even

though replacement is not done,

provided that the sample is small

in comparison with the population.

that the probabilities that a person buys

zero, one, or two or more CDs are 0.3,

0.6, and 0.1, respectively. If six

customers enter the store, find the

probability that one wont buy any CDs,

three will buy one CD, and two will buy

two or more CDs.

Solution:

N = 6, X1 = 1, X2 = 3, X3 = 2, P1 = 0.3, P2 = 0.6,

and P3 = 0.1. Then,

P(X) = (0.3)1(0.6)3(0.1)2

the binomial distribution but has the advantage

of allowing one to compute probabilities when

there are more than two outcomes for each trial

in the experiment. That is, multinomial

distribution is a general distribution, and the

binomial distribution is a special case of the

multinomial distribution.

the binomial distribution does not give exact

probabilities, since the trials are not

independent. The smaller the size of the

population, the less

accurate the binomial

probabilities will be.

of four people is to be selected from

seven women and five men. What is

the probability that the committee

will consist of three women and one

man?

To solve this problem, one must

find the number of ways a committee

of three women and one man can be

selected from seven women and five

men. This answer can be found by

a committee of four people can be

selected from 12 people. Again, by

the use of combinations, the answer

is

12C4 = 495

Finally, the probability of getting a

committee of three women and one

man from seven women and five men

is

P(X) = =

generalized by using a special

probability distribution called the

hypergeometric

distribution. The

hypergeometric distribution is a

distribution of a variable that has two

outcomes when a sampling is done

without replacement.

Distribution

objects (females and males, defective and

nondefective, successes or failures, etc.), such

that there are a items of one kind and b items of

another kind and a + b equals the total

population, the probability P(X) of selecting

without replacement a sample of size n with X

items of type a and n X items of type b is

P(X) =

there are aCX ways of selecting the

first type of items, bCn-X ways of

selecting the second type of items,

and (a+b)Cn ways of selecting n items

from the entire population.

Example:

1. Ten people apply for a job as assistant

manager of a restaurant. Five have

completed college and five have not. If

the manager selects three applicants at

random, find the probability that all

three are college graduates.

Solution:

Assigning the values to the variable gives

a = 5 college graduates

n=3

b = 5 nongraduates

X=3

and n X = 0. Substituting in the formula

gives

nine houses were underinsured. If five

houses are selected from the nine

houses, find the probability that exactly

two are underinsured.

Solution:

In this problem

a=4

b=5

n-X=3

Then,

P(X) = = =

n=5

X=2

Exercises:

getting

a. A sum of 6 or 7

b. A sum greater than 8

c. A sum less than 3 or greater than 8

d. A sum that is divisible by 3

e. A sum of 16

f. A sum less than 11

2. The probability that Sam will be accepted by the

college of his choice and obtain a scholarship is 0.35. If

the probability that he is accepted by the college is 0.65,

find the probability that he will obtain a scholarship

given that he is accepted by the college.

3. The probability that John has to work overtime and it

rains is 0.028. John hears the weather forecast, and

there is a 50% chance of rain. Find the probability that

Probability

Problems

carbonates in a rock collection. He picks 6 rocks at

random for a student to analyze. Find the probability

that the professor picked 2 silicates, 1 pyrite and 3

carbonates. Express your answer in lowest fraction.

Answer:

Solution:

If there are 20 rocks in all, the number of ways picking 6 of these is

= = 38,760

The number of ways of picking 2 silicates, 1 pyrite and 3

carbonates is

=

= 3920

Hence, the probability of picking these rocks is or approximately

0.101.

follows. One bullet is placed into empty cylinder

of a six-gun and the cylinder is spun. The first

player holds the gun to his head and pulls the

trigger. If he does not die, he wins the game. If he

dies, then the second player takes his turn by

spinning the cylinder, putting the gun to his head,

and pulling the trigger. If he dies the first player

wins. If he does not die, then the game is played

again. What is the probability that the second

player will die?

Answer:

Probability of the second player will die is (5/6) (1/6)

= 5/36

compound interest using either arithmetic

methods, algebraic methods or calculus

methods with corresponding probabilities of

2/9, 4/9 and 1/3. With each of these methods,

the respective probabilities of obtaining the

correct answer are 9/10, 7/8 and 3/4 .

Determine the probability that the student

obtains the correct answer.

Solution:

P(correct) = (choosing arithmetic and being

correct OR choosing algebra and being

correct OR choosing calculus and being

correct)

and in Math. The probability that she will pass the

English exam is 0.75. The probability that she will fail

the Math is 0.20. The probability that she will pass

both exams is 0.65. What is the probability that Debra

will pass either the Math or the English exam?

Solution:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)

P(English or Math) = P(English) + P(Math) P(Math

and English)

P(English) = 0.75

P(not Math) = 0.20

P(Math) = 1 0.20 = 0.80

P(English or Math) = 0.75 + 0.80 0.65

= 1.55 0.65 = 0.90

be formed with 3 seniors and 2 juniors

as its members if there are 6 seniors

and 5 juniors to choose from?

Solution:

C3 * 5C2 = 20 * 10 = 200

learn MATHEMATICS unless we find a way to

share our enjoyment and show them its

beauty as well as its utility.

^_^

END

Of

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