A brief discussion on Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

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A brief discussion on Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

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Distribution

Learning Objectives

Determine whether a probability

Compute the probabilities of

hypergeometric experiments

Compute the mean and the

variance/standard deviation of a

hypergeometric random variable

The binomial probability distribution can be used to

are a fixed number of trials in which there are two

mutually exclusive outcomes and the probability of

success for any trial is constant.

independence is not satisfied?

hypergeometric experiment provided:

1. The finite population to be sampled has N

elements.

2. For each trial of the experiment, there are two

possible outcomes, success or failure. There are

exactly k successes in the population.

3. A sample of size n is obtained from the

population of size N without replacement.

Notations Used

Distribution

in

the

Hypergeometric

Probability

n.

There are k successes in the population.

Let the random variable X denote the

number of successes in the sample of size n,

so x must be greater than or equal to the

larger of 0 or n (N k), and x must be less

than or equal to the smaller of n or k.

Example 1:

A Hypergeometric Probability Experiment

Problem:

Suppose that a researcher goes to a small college

with 200 faculty, 12 of which have blood type Onegative. She obtains a simple random sample of

n = 20 of the faculty and finds that 3 of the

faculty have blood type O-negative. Is this

experiment

a

hypergeometric

probability

experiment? List the possible values of the

random variable X, the number of faculty that

have blood type O-negative.

Example 1:

A Hypergeometric Probability Experiment

Approach:

for a hypergeometric experiment have been

satisfied.

Example 1:

A Hypergeometric Probability Experiment

Solution:

This is a hypergeometric probability experiment because

1. The population consists of N = 200 faculty.

2. Two outcomes are possible: the faculty member has blood

type O-negative or the faculty member does not have blood

type O-negative. The researcher obtained k = 3 successes.

3. The sample size n = 20.

The possible values of the random variable are x = 0, 1, , 12.

The largest value of X is 12, because we cannot have more than

12 successes since there are only 12 faculty with blood type Onegative in the population.

probability distribution to determine the

likelihood of obtaining three successes in 20

trials in Example 1 because the sample size is

large relative to the population size.

That is, n = 20 is more than 5% of the

population size, N = 200.

hypergeometric experiment lies in the fact that each

sample of size n is equally likely to be chosen.

Consider an urn that contains 8 white chips and 6

black chips for a total of N = 14 chips. If we decide to

randomly select n = 3, all possible combinations of

chips are equally likely.

chips and B1, B2, , B6 represent the 6 black chips,

selecting W1,W2, B3 is just as likely as selecting

W3,W6, B4.

Notice in both cases that we selected 2 white chips and

1 black chip. So, if X represents the number of black

chips selected, we have x = 1 in both cases; however,

the chips selected are different (so each represents a

different sample).

random sample of size n from a population of size N is

given by

Example 2

Using the Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

Problem:

Suppose that a researcher goes to a small college

with 200 faculty, 12 of which have blood type Onegative. She obtains a simple random sample of n

= 20 of the faculty. Let the random variable X

represent the number of faculty in the sample size

of n = 20 that have blood type O-negative.

a) What is the probability that 3 of the faculty have

blood type O-negative?

b) What is the probability that at least one of the

faculty has blood type O-negative?

Example 2

Using the Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

Approach:

= 200, n = 20, and k = 12. The possible

values of the random variable X are x = 0, 1,

2, , 12.

Example 2

Using the Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

Solution:

a) We are looking for the probability of obtaining 3

successes, x = 3.

Example 2

Using the Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

Solution:

b) Since ,

Try this!

Suppose that a machine shop orders 500 bolts from a

supplier. To determine whether to accept the shipment of

bolts, the manager of the facility randomly selects 12 bolts.

If none of the 12 randomly selected bolts is found to be

defective, he concludes that the shipment is acceptable.

a) If 10% of the bolts in the population are defective,

what is the probability that none of the selected bolts

are defective?

b) If 20% of the bolts in the population are defective,

what is the probability that none of the selected bolts

are defective?

Random Variable

standard deviation given by the formulas

k is the number of successes in the population

N is the size of the population

of a Hypergeometric Random Variable

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