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Probability

www.mathxtc.com

Definitions

Probability is the mathematics of chance.

It tells us the relative frequency with which we can

expect an event to occur

The greater the probability the more

likely the event will occur.

It can be written as a fraction, decimal, percent,

or ratio.

Definitions

1

Certain

.5

50/50

measure of the likelihood that

the event will occur.

Value is between 0 and 1.

is 1.

0

Impossible

Definitions

A probability experiment is an action through which

specific results (counts, measurements, or responses)

are obtained.

The result of a single trial in a probability experiment

is an outcome.

The set of all possible outcomes of a probability

experiment is the sample space, denoted as S.

e.g. All 6 faces of a die: S = { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 }

Definitions

Other Examples of Sample Spaces may include:

Lists

Tables

Grids

Venn Diagrams

Tree Diagrams

May use a combination of these

Where appropriate always display your sample space

Definitions

An event consists of one or more outcomes and is a

subset of the sample space.

Events are often represented by uppercase letters,

such as A, B, or C.

Notation: The probability that event E will occur is

written P(E) and is read

the probability of event E.

Definitions

The Probability of an Event, E:

P(E) =

Total Number of Possible Outcomes in S

Each of the Outcomes in the Sample Space are random

2

1

and

equally

likely

to

occur.

e.g. P(

) =

36

18

Definitions

There are three types of probability

1. Theoretical Probability

Theoretical probability is used when each outcome

in a sample space is equally likely to occur.

P(E) =

Total Number of Possible Outcomes in S

Definitions

There are three types of probability

2. Experimental Probability

Experimental probability is based upon observations

obtained from probability experiments.

P(E) =

Total Number of Observations

E is the relative frequency of event E

Definitions

There are three types of probability

3. Subjective Probability

Subjective probability is a probability measure

resulting from intuition, educated guesses, and

estimates.

Therefore, there is no formula to calculate it.

Usually found by consulting an expert.

Definitions

Law of Large Numbers.

As an experiment is repeated over and over, the

experimental probability of an event approaches

the theoretical probability of the event.

The greater the number of trials the more likely

the experimental probability of an event will equal

its theoretical probability.

Complimentary Events

The complement of event E is the set of all

outcomes in a sample space that are not included in

event E.

The complement of event E is denoted by

E or E

0 P( E ) 1

Properties of Probability:

P( E ) P( E ) 1

P( E ) 1 P( E )

P( E ) 1 P( E )

If events A and B are independent, then the

probability of two events, A and B occurring in a

sequence (or simultaneously) is:

P ( A and B ) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B )

This rule can extend to any number of independent

events.

Two events are independent if the occurrence of the

first event does not affect the probability of the

occurrence of the second event. More on this later

Mutually Exclusive

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if and

only if:

P( A B) 0

disjoint from event B.

The probability that at least one of the events A

or B will occur, P(A or B), is given by:

P ( A or B ) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A B )

If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the

addition rule is simplified to:

P ( A or B ) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B )

This simplified rule can be extended to any number

of mutually exclusive events.

Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability of an event

occurring, given that another event has already

occurred.

Conditional probability restricts the sample space.

The conditional probability of event B occurring,

given that event A has occurred, is denoted by P(B|

A) and is read as probability of B, given A.

We use conditional probability when two events

occurring in sequence are not independent. In other

words, the fact that the first event (event A) has

occurred affects the probability that the second

event (event B) will occur.

Conditional Probability

Formula for Conditional Probability

P( A B)

P( B A)

P( A | B)

or P( B | A)

P( B)

P( A)

Better off to use your brain and work out

conditional probabilities from looking at the sample

space, otherwise use the formula.

Conditional Probability

e.g. There are 2 red and 3 blue counters in a bag

and, without looking, we take out one counter and

do not replace it.

The probability of a 2nd counter taken from the bag

being red depends on whether the 1st was red or

blue.

Conditional probability problems can be solved by

considering the individual possibilities or by using a

table, a Venn diagram, a tree diagram or a formula.

Harder problems are best solved by using a formula

together with a tree diagram.

grouped by petrol consumption, owned by 100 people.

Low

Medium

High

Male

12

33

Female

23

21

Total

100

One person is selected at random.

L is the event the person owns a low rated car

grouped by petrol consumption, owned by 100 people.

Low

Medium

High

Male

12

33

Female

23

21

Total

100

One person is selected at random.

L is the event the person owns a low rated car

F is the event a female is chosen.

grouped by petrol consumption, owned by 100 people.

Low

Medium

High

Male

12

33

Female

23

21

Total

100

One person is selected at random.

L is the event the person owns a low rated car

F is the event a female is chosen.

grouped by petrol consumption, owned by 100 people.

Low

Medium

High

Male

12

33

Female

23

21

Total

100

One person is selected at random.

L is the event the person owns a low rated car

F is the event a female is chosen.

Find (i) P(L)

(ii) P(F L)

(iii) P(F L)

solve this type of problem.

We just need to be careful which row or column we look at.

Solution:

Male

Female

Find (i) P(L)

Low

12

23

35

(ii) P(F L)

Medium

33

21

High

7

4

Total

100

(iii) P(F L)

35 7

(i) P(L) =

100 20 20

Solution:

Male

Female

Low

12

23

Medium

33

21

High

7

4

Total

100

Find (i) P(L)

(ii) P(F L)

(iii) P(F L)

7

35 7

(i) P(L) =

100 20 20

(ii) P(F L) =

23

100

female with a low rated car.

Solution:

Male

Female

Find (i) P(L)

(ii) P(F L)

7

35 7

(i) P(L) =

100 20 20

(ii) P(F L) =

23

(iii) P(F L)

35

Low

12

23

35

23

100

Medium

33

21

High

7

4

Total

100

(iii) P(F L)

from 100 to 35.

We

be careful

with thea

The must

probability

of selecting

denominators

in (ii)

Here

female given the

carand

is (iii).

low rated.

we are given the car is low rated.

We want the total of that column.

Solution:

Male

Female

Low

12

23

Medium

33

21

High

7

4

Total

100

Find (i) P(L)

(ii) P(F L)

7

35 7

(i) P(L) =

100 20 20

(ii) P(F L) =

23

(iii) P(F L)

35

23

100

(iii) P(F L)

Notice that

1

7 23

23

P(L) P(F L)

20 35 5 100

= P(F L)

So, P(F L) = P(F|L) P(L)

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

F

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

R

F

8

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

R

F

8

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

R

F

12

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

R

F

12

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

R

F

12

15

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

R

F

12

15

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

R

F

12

15

10

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

R

F

12

Total: 20 + 25

15

10

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

45

F

12

Total: 20 + 25

15

10

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

45

F

12

15

10

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

P(R F) =

45

F

12

15

10

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

P(R F) =

45

F

12

15

10

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

P(R F) =

8

45

45

F

12

15

10

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

P(R F) =

P(R F) =

8

45

45

F

12

15

10

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

P(R F) =

P(R F) =

8

20

8

45

P(F) =

45

F

12

15

10

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

P(R F) =

P(R F) =

8

20

8

45

P(F) =

45

20

F

12

15

10

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

P(R F) =

P(R F) =

8

20

8

45

20

P(F) =

45

45

F

12

15

10

seeds and although they look the same, 8 will give red

flowers and 12 blue. The 2nd packet has 25 seeds of

which 15 will be red and 10 blue.

Draw a Venn diagram and use it to illustrate the

conditional probability formula.

Solution: Let R be the event Red flower and

F be the event First packet

P(R F) =

8

45

20

P(R F) =

P(F) =

45

20

8 1 20

8

P(R F) P(F) =

45 45

1 20

So,

45

F

12

15

10

Probability Tree

Diagrams

The probability of a complex event can be found

using a probability tree diagram.

1. Draw the appropriate tree diagram.

2. Assign probabilities to each branch.

(Each section sums to 1.)

3. Multiply the probabilities along individual branches

to find the probability of the outcome at the end of

each branch.

4. Add the probabilities of the relevant outcomes,

depending on the event.

to work on time if there is fog on the M6 is 2 .

9

3

The probability of fog at the time he travels is 20 .

(b) Calculate the probability that there was fog given that

he arrives on time.

There are lots of clues in the question to tell us we are

dealing with conditional probability.

to work on time if there is fog on the M6 is 2 .

9

3

The probability of fog at the time he travels is 20 .

(b) Calculate the probability that there was fog given that

he arrives on time.

There are lots of clues in the question to tell us we are

dealing with conditional probability.

Solution:

Let F be the event fog on the M6

that we want to find in (a) and (b)?

(b) Calculate the probability that there was fog given that

he arrives on time. P(F T)

Can you also write down the notation for the three

probabilities given in the question?

the probability of a man getting to work on time if

there is fog is 2

5

P(T F)

2

5

Not foggy

9

9

/

If the visibility is good, the probability is 10 . P(T F )

10

3

3

P(F)

20

This is a much harder problem so we draw a tree diagram.

2

P(T F)

5

9

P(T F )

10

/

2

5

3

20

17

20

F

Fog

/

FNo

Fog

3

5

9

10

1

10

3

P(F)

20

On

T

time

3 2

20 5

Not

on3 3

/

T

time

20 5

On 17 9

T

time 20 10

Not

on17 1

/

T

time 20 10

2

P(T F)

5

9

P(T F )

10

/

2

5

3

20

17

20

3

P(F)

20

T

3 2

20 5

T/

3 3

20 5

17 9

20 10

17 1

20 10

F

3

5

9

10

F/

1

10

after the 1st set has occurred, the 2nd set

must represent conditional probabilities.

2

5

3

20

17

20

3 2

20 5

T/

3 3

20 5

17 9

20 10

T/

17 1

20 10

F

3

5

9

10

F/

1

10

2

5

3

20

17

20

F

3

5

9

10

F/

1

10

6

3 2

20 5 100

( foggy

and

3 3he

/

T

time )

arrives

on

20

17 9

20 10

T/

17 1

20 10

2

5

3

20

17

20

6

3 2

20 5 100

T/

3 3

20 5

F

3

5

9

10

F/

P ( T ) P ( F T) P ( F

1

10

T)

17 9 153

T

20 10 200

( not foggy

17 and

1 he

/

T

arrives

on time )

20 10

6

153 165 33 33

(b) Calculate the probability that there was fog given that

he arrives on time.

P(F T)

P (F | T)

We need P ( F T )

P (T )

Fog on M 6

3

20

Getting to work

2

5

P(F T)

P(F | T)

P (T )

3 2

6

P(F T)

20 5 100

33

From part (a), P ( T )

40

6

33

4

6 2 40 2

P ( F T)

P

(

F

T

)

55

100 40 100 5 33 11

more on the 1st day of Wimbledon ( tennis competition! )

3

has been estimated as . The probability of a particular

8

estimated to be 3 but otherwise only 1 .

4

(i) the probability of the player winning,

(ii) the probability that, if the player has won, it was at

least 28 .

Solution: Let T be the event temperature 28 or more

Let W be the event player wins

3

3

1

/

P (W T )

P (W T )

Then, P ( T )

4

8

2

Let W be the event player wins

3

1

3

/

P(W T )

P (W T )

Then, P ( T )

8

2

4

1

2

3

8

5

8

High

T

temp

Lower

/

T

temp

1

2

3

4

1

4

Wins

W

3 1 3

8 2 16

W/

Loses

3 1 3

8 2 16

W

Wins

5 3 15

8 4 32

5 1

5

W

Loses

8 4 32

/

Sum

=1

1

2

3

8

5

8

T

1

2

3

4

T/

P ( W ) P (T W ) P (T

3 1 3

8 2 16

5 3 15

8 4 32

W/

5 1

5

8 4 32

1

4

(i)

3 1 3

8 2 16

W)

1

2

3

8

5

8

3

4

T/

1

4

(i)

P ( W ) P (T W ) P (T

3 1 3

8 2 16

5 3 15

8 4 32

W/

5 1

5

8 4 32

1

2

3 1 3

8 2 16

W)

3 15 6 15 21

16 32

32

32

1

2

3

8

5

8

T

1

2

3

4

T/

1

4

21

P (W)

32

(ii)

P (T W )

P (T | W )

P( W )

3 1 3

8 2 16

3 1 3

8 2 16

5 3 15

8 4 32

W/

5 1

5

8 4 32

1

2

3

8

5

8

T

1

2

3

4

T/

1

4

21

P (W)

32

(ii)

3 1 3

8 2 16

3 1 3

8 2 16

5 3 15

8 4 32

W/

5 1

5

8 4 32

P(T W ) P ( T W ) 3 21

P (T | W )

16 32

P( W )

1

2

3

8

5

8

T

1

2

3

4

T/

1

4

21

P (W)

32

(ii)

P (T W )

P(T

P (T | W )

P(W)

3 1 3

8 2 16

3 1 3

8 2 16

5 3 15

8 4 32

W/

5 1

5

8 4 32

3 21

3 32 2

W)

16 32 16 1 217 7

Independent Events

We can deduce an important result from the conditional

law of probability:

If B has no effect on A, then, P(A B) = P(A) and we say

the events are independent.

( The probability of A does not depend on B. )

So, P(A|B) P(A B)

P(B)

becomes

or

P(A) P(A B)

P(B)

Independent Events

Tests for independence

P(A B) P(A)

P(B A) P(B)

or

Expected Value

Suppose that the outcomes of an experiment are

real numbers called x1 , x2 , x3 ,..., xn

and suppose that these outcomes have probabilities

p1 , p2 , p3 ,..., pn respectively. Then the expected

value of x, E(x), of the experiment

is:

n

E ( x) xi pi

i 1

Expected Value

Example

At a raffle, 1500 tickets are sold at $2 each for

four prizes of $500, $250, $150, and $75. What

is the expected value of your gain if you play?

Gain

P(x)

1

1500

1

1500

1

1500

1

1500

-$2

1496

1500

1

1

1

1

1496

E ( x) 498

248

148

73

2

1500

1500

1500

1500

1500

$1.35

Odds

When one speaks about the odds in favour of an

event, they are actually stating the number of

favourable outcomes of an event to the number

of unfavourable outcomes of the event, assuming

that the outcomes are equally likely.

The odds in favour of event E are:

n(E):n(E)

P(E):P(E)

The odds against event E are

n(E):n(E)

P(E):P(E)

If the odds in favour of E are a:b, then

a

P( E )

ab

Applicable Mathematics

Probability

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