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Managing Climate Change For

Productivity

16 August,
2014

Overview
Introduction
Climate Change
Factors Impacting Productivity & Farm Practices
Mitigation Strategies

Project Introduction
FARM VIEW
STRESS ON ENVIRONMENT

Farm Mapping: Climate &


Environment
Farming Practices
Conventional Practices
Modern Practices
Sustainability

Climate & Climate Change


Higher Average Temp.
Increased Rainfall Variation
More frequent extreme
events

Stakeholders
Govt.
Policy
Institutions
Private
Sector

Environment
Preserve Biodiversity
Fragile Ecosystems

Community
Farmer

Stress: Food for thought!


Agriculture: Largest water user: 70% of total withdrawal. With backdrop of
climate change, water sustainability is even more crucial
Significant nutrient run-off in developed countries, and soil degradation in
developing countries: KLS & NLS problem
Maintenance of Biodiversity: Absorbs Shocks due to changing circumstances.
Severe deforestation not helping
Agriculture, including deforestation, is 1/3 of greenhouse gas emissions. Hence,
climate change mitigation needs to be led from here

Climate Change
D O E S I T I M PA C T P R O D U C T I V I T Y ?
Q U A N T I F Y I N G C L I M AT E C H A N G E
C L I M AT E C H A N G E : I M PA C T O N I N D I A

Does climate change impact


productivity?
TFP has increased!
Introduction of
Varieties
Market Conditions
Change in Farming
Practices
Other Biotic Factors
(Eg: Soil, Pests, etc.)

Impact of Climate Variation on


Agricultural Productivity and food
security in India, economics eJournal, Ajay Kumar, Pritee Sharma,
Increments
max temp has
IIT in
Indore.
negative impact on rice, maize,
bajra, etc.. With high statistical
significance.
Increment in rainfall had a negative
correlation with ragi, maize.
Overall, there was statistically
significant impact of climate on
agriculture.
Sensitivity of cereal ((a,b) maize (mid- to high-

latitude and low latitude), (c,d) wheat (mid- to


high-latitude and low latitude) and (e,f) rice
(mid- to high-latitude)) against temperature
change. Results with (green), and without (red)
adaptation. Source:Easterling et al. (2007)

What is climate change? Global


Impacts
An increase in mean temperature is evident, but the impacts on
productivity may depend more on the magnitude and timing of
Direct impacts of
extreme temperatures, drought, flooding and tropical storms, etc.
climate change
Warming since 1981 led to combined losses of 40 million tonne or
US5$ billion [wheat, maize and barley have negative relation with
temp]
Dependency on rivers fed by precipitation, snowmelt and glaciers
Indirect impacts some distance away.Soil moisture, Water availability: Water water
of climate
everywhere
not a dropcorrelated
to drink! with elevated CO2. But full effects
Aphids maybut
be positively
change
on pests and diseases is not certain, due to complex interactions
A reduction in CO2emissions would be expected to reduce the positive
effect of CO2fertilization on crop yields more rapidly than it would
mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

Non-Climate,
Greehouse
emissions related In regions, such as Asia, little evidence currently exists regarding
ozone.
Overall, it does not appear to be possible at the present time to provide a robust assessment of the
impacts of anthropogenic climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity.

India Specific Climate Change

Although variation is within 10% of rainfall, tobacco crop yields are affected in yield significantly,
especially KLS region.
It is further noted that night time temperatures have increased sharply during the recent years,
highlighting the role of greenhouse gases.
ISMR anomaly and food grain production relationship not encouraging!
Studies also suggests intensity and duration may vary significantly, even though average

India Specific Climate Change:


Predictions

Mean warming over India is likely to be in the


range 1.7-2.00 C by 2030s, 3.3-4.80 C by
2080s relative to pre industrial times.
All-India precipitation is projected to increase
from 4% to 5% by 2030s and from 6% to 14%
towards the end of the century (2080s)
compared to the 1961-1990 baseline.

There is consistent positive trend in


frequency of extreme precipitation
days (e.g., greater than 40 mm/ day) for
decades 2060s and beyond
The precipitation projections are
generally less reliable than
temperature projections

India Specific Implications


All-India rainfall does not show any significant trends, however there are significant regional trends and subseasonal rainfall
surface air temperatures including night time temperatures are expected to further increase.
Increase in moisture level is expected with increase in rainfall, but there will also be extreme rainfall related
events
productivity of most cereals would decrease due to increase in temperature and CO2, and the decrease in
water availability.
There will be a projected loss of 10-40% in crop production by 2100 if no adaptation measures are taken.A
one degree Celsius increase in temperature may reduce yields of major food crops by 3-7%
Kharif (autumn) crops will be impacted more by rainfall variability while Rabi (spring) crops by rise in
minimum temperature.
There will also be more opportunities for rainwater harvesting due to high intensity rainfall but greater loss of
topsoil due to erosion.
Rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and the likelihood of nonlinear effects of temperature on yields
are causes of concern. Despite rising CO 2 net loss in productivity due to higher temperatures is expected (3
degree rise cancels benefits)

http://www.ifpri.org/node/8438

Factors impacted by climate


change

Factors Affecting
Productivity &
Practices
M A P P I N G O F FAC T O R S
C L I M AT I C FAC T O R S : A S T U DY
E VO LU T I O N O F AG R I - P RAC T I C E S

Different factors affecting


Productivity

Climatic
Precipitatio
n

Temperatur
e

Humidity

Solar
Radiation

Wind
Velocity

Gases

Internal Factors
High yield ability
Early maturity
Resistance to lodging
Drought flood and salinity tolerance
Tolerance to insect pests and diseases
Chemical composition of grains (oil content, protein content)
Quality of grains
Quality of straw

Climatic Factors
Nearly 50% of yield is attributed to the influence of climatic factors. The following
are the atmospheric weather variables which influences the crop production
Precipitation
Temperature
Atmospheric humidity
Solar radiation
Wind velocity
Atmospheric gases

Climatic Factors

Precipitation
Definition: Water which
falls from atmosphere
Important factor, crop
growth dependence on
amount and period of
rain fall is very high
Distributed rain fall is
more important than
total rain fall

Temperature

Humidity

Definition: Measure of
intensity of heat
energy
Temperature range for
maximum agricultural
growth
Temperature plays a
crucial role in
Germination. Leaf
production, expansion,
flowering

Definition: Water
vapour present in
atmosphere in form of
invisible water vapour
Soil evaporation and
plant transpiration
RH influences water
requirement of crops
Balance of RH (4060%)

Climatic Factors

Solar Radiation

Wind Velocity

Atmospheric Gases

Germination to Harvest
even post harvest
crops are affected by
solar radiation
Photosynthesis process
Physical process in soil
Controls distribution of
temperature

Basic function is to
carry moisture and
heat
Supply fresh CO2 for
photosynthesis
Soil erosion, increase
evaporation, spread
pest and diseases,
enormous wind speed
gives mechanical
damage

CO2 for photosynthesis


Co2 returned to
atmosphere during
decomposition of
organic matter
O2 is important for
respiration
N is major plant
nutrient
Certain gases are toxic

Evolution of Farming Practices

Conventional
Farming
Practices

GAP and SAP

Climate
Smart
Agriculture

Mitigation
Strategies
FA R M I N G P RAC T I C E S
A G R I I N N O VAT I O N S Y S T E M
N AT U RA L R E S O U RC E M A N AG E M E N T

SCOPE EXCLUDES
FINANCING

E N A B L I N G E N V I R O N M E N T , R & D F O C U S , C O L L A B O RAT I O N , P O L I C I E S

New Climate Smart Practices


Past:Land degradation: Overuse of land, poor land management, nutrient
mining, soil erosion
Need: Increased efficiency of organic and inorganic fertilizer, water use and
pest and disease control are needed to increase returns to agriculture while
reducing negative environmental externalities when achieving needed
productivity gains
Farming Practices

Agri Innovation Systems

Natural Resource
Management

Enabling environment,
Focus on R&D,
Collaboration, Policies

Farming Practices
Capturing nutrients and energy
from
manure, crop residue, cover
crop
management (closing nutrient
Using more efficient power
cycles)
sources
and renewable energy (more
efficient
tractors, green power).
Reduce water losses, increase
irrigation efficiencies by
building irrigation
infrastructure

Erosion prevention and


protection from extreme
weather conditions
Using slow-release N fertilizers
with
proper timing, placement, and
rates to
minimize N2O emissions
Increasing soil C sequestration
to
improve soil functions

Increasing N-use
efficiencies for cropping
systems
Improving the
synchronization of
planting and harvesting
operations
with shifts in the hydrologic
Valuingcycle
agricultural
commodities for their water
footprint or environmental
traits.

Agri Innovation Systems


Integrating Climate
Change, impact, and
mitigation in farmer
education

Incentivise adoption of
specific practices

Switching cropping
sequences, Sowing
earlier, adjusting
timing of field operations

Improved training and


general education of
populations
dependent on
agriculture.

Introduction of latermaturing crop varieties


or species,
heat and drought
resistant crop varieties

Incorporate Climate
Change related
messages in Advisory
Services like Namma
Sandesh

Leverage existing infra:


farmer and trader
associations, NGOS

Conserving soil moisture


through appropriate
tillage
methods, and improving
irrigation efficiency.

Incorporating Efficient
Post Harvest
Management Activities

Natural Resource Management


Watersheds: Projects designed to explore low-cost water conservation solutions to improve
crop yields in the face of drought in the community of Kothapally in Andhra Pradesh, India

Forestry initiatives to conserve and build biodiversity: leverage natural habitat formations in
Crop Management: Bee farms, Insectivorous Birds

De-silting operations & control of soil erosion, soil fertility management,


Soil moisture conservation by mulching crop residues, etc.

Leveraging village level institutions to build capabilities and manage funding for projects

Enabling environment, Focus on


R&D, Collaboration, Policies
Climate Change levy on
tobacco produce: revenues
to be used In R&D

Ex post is better than Ex


ante!
Pull based mechanisms to
reward successful
innovations.

Cross Country Exchange of


info:
Global Research Alliance on
Greenhouse Gases

Building in-situ biodiversity


seed banks to enable faster
development

Payment for Ecosystem


Services: Incentivise
Climate Change Mitigation
Practices-

Replicate successful models


established in other nations

Provision of loans, and


equipments at subsidies

Tailor made policies


according to region; Address
poorly defined land holding
rights

Promoting fast and efficient


information communication,
Use of RS/GIS

Bibliography
http://cdkn.org/2012/01/agriculture-and-climate-change-in-india/
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1554/2973.full#ref-59
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1554/2973/F1.expansion.html
http://www.nias.res.in/docs/Climate%20Change%20and%20Sustainable%20Food%20Security.pdf
http://www.ctri.org.in/CTRI%20Publications/CTRI%20Vision%202025.pdf
http://www.fao.org/climatechange/climatesmart/en/
http://www.ifad.org/rainfedag/climate/
http://www.caadp.net/pdf/Using%20SLM%20Practices%20to%20Adapt%20and%20Mitigate%20Climate%20Change.pdf
http://www.afjare.org/resources/issues/vol_2_no1/5%20Hassan%20%26%20Nhemachena%20-%
20Determinants%20of%20African%20farmers%E2%80%99%20strategies.pdf
http://www.ars.usda.gov/sp2UserFiles/Place/36221500/cswq-0456-delgado.pdf
http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp01098.pdf
http://www.globalenvironments.org/blog/climate-change-resilient-agriculture/
http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/i2316e/i2316e00.pdf
http://www.isprs.org/proceedings/XXXVIII/8-W3/b2/B21-138.pdf
http://www.ictsd.org/downloads/2012/05/g20-2012-27-april-2.pdf

THANK YOU!