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DEMINGS RED

BEAD EXPERIMENT
.. Stupidly simple.. The
messages learned are not

Red Bead Experiment Exercise

Use of control charts to analyze the results

Variation

Common vs. Specific (Assignable) Causes

Stable and Unstable Processes

Lessons Learned from the Red Bead


Experiment

SUMMARY SLIDE

Background
1.

I need 4 students to represent


factory workers

One is middle
management

Three are newly hired


Factory Workers

Teacher is the CEO

2.

Factory workers will be


employed for 10 days on
probation

3.

In order for the factory to be


cost effective, workers must
produce no more than 8
defective (red bead) items out
of 50 items produced per day

Here is our work day

Factory Workers Produce daily


products

Middle management Records


daily production defects (red
beads)

After the 10 day production

Top management, middle


management, and consultants
(class) will construct a time
series plot of the number of
defects (red beads).

RED BEAD EXPERIMENT


EXERCISE (STEP 1) We will look for trends

Here is our work day for week 3

Management Decisions
1.

2.

We will allow our factory


workers to work for one more
week (5 days of production)
Necessary management
decisions are made (class
does not know what we
decided)

Factory Workers Produce daily


products

Middle management Records


daily production defects (red
beads)

After another 5 day production

Extend the time series plot of the


number of defects (red beads) to
include the last 5 production
defects

We will look for trends

We will examine the time series


RED BEAD EXPERIMENT
plot
EXERCISE (STEP 2)

Statistical analysis we will


perform (identification
tools)

Stationary
Constant Mean
Constant Variance
Time Series Plot

Independence (Random)
Runs Up and Down Test

In control charts we wil


Test stationary:
DTD: Describe -> Time-Series
-> Descriptive Methods
Test Independence:
Runs Up and Down Test
Tables Options (3 Ts): select
Tests for Randomness
Test Normality:
DDF: Describe -> Distribution
Fitting -> Fitting Uncensored
Data
Tables Options: select Tests
for Normality

RED BEAD EXPERIMENT


Shapiro-Wilks (STEP
Test
EXERCISE
3)

Normality

LESSONS LEARNED

(SLIDES THAT
FOLLOW

COMMON

Numerous small
causes of
variability that
are inherent to
any system,
operate randomly
VARIATION
or by chance

SPECIFIC
Assignable, have
relatively large
effects on
process, occur
occasionally or
sporadic

COMMON VS. SPECIFIC


(ASSIGNABLE) CAUSES

The variation in the quality of the production output is due to


either common causes or specific (assignable) causes.

Common causes: normal or natural variations in process


outputs that are due purely to chance. No corrective action is
necessary when output variations are due to common causes.

Specific (Assignable) causes: Variation in process outputs that


are due to special circumstances or factors (machine tools
wearing out, incorrect machine settings, poor-quality raw
materials, operator error, etc.)

A process is Stable when variation made


up of only common causes

In an Unstable process (process is not in


statistical control), variation is made up
of both common causes and specific
causes

Identification Tools are used to find if


specific causes of variation exist within a
processAND UNSTABLE
STABLE

PROCESSES
9

Variation is an inherent part of any process

Only management can change the process

Identification tools (time series plots, non


parametric runs up and down test, and the
Shapiro-Wilk test) can help us identify specific
variation

Workers work within a system over which they


have little control. The system determines
their performance.

The work standard set by management may


have no relationship to the capability of the
system.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE


RED BEAD EXPERIMENT

Red Bead Experiment Exercise

Use of control charts to analyze the results

Variation

Common vs. Specific (Assignable) Causes

Stable and Unstable Processes

Lessons Learned from the Red Bead


Experiment

SUMMARY SLIDE